Articles on machine learning in trading

In the previous article, we discussed a simple RNN which despite its inability to understand long-term dependencies in the data, was able to make a profitable strategy. In this article, we are discussing both the Long-Short Term Memory(LSTM) and the Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU). These two were introduced to overcome the shortcomings of a simple RNN and to outsmart it.

In this article, we apply a relatively complex neural network algorithm released in 2023 called PatchTST for predicting the price action for the next 24 hours. We will use the official repository, make slight modifications, train a model for EURUSD, and apply it to making future predictions both in Python and MQL5.

In this article we explore different ways in which the eigenvectors and eigenvalues can be applied in exploratory data analysis to reveal unique relationships in data.

In the previous article, we got acquainted with one of the methods for detecting objects in an image. However, processing a static image is somewhat different from working with dynamic time series, such as the dynamics of the prices we analyze. In this article, we will consider the method of detecting objects in video, which is somewhat closer to the problem we are solving.

In this article, I propose to look at the issue of building a trading strategy from a different angle. We will not predict future price movements, but will try to build a trading system based on the analysis of historical data.

In this article, we revisit the classic moving average crossover strategy to assess its current effectiveness. Given the amount of time since its inception, we explore the potential enhancements that AI can bring to this traditional trading strategy. By incorporating AI techniques, we aim to leverage advanced predictive capabilities to potentially optimize trade entry and exit points, adapt to varying market conditions, and enhance overall performance compared to conventional approaches.

The article examines the topic of matching in causal inference. Matching is used to compare similar observations in a data set. This is necessary to correctly determine causal effects and get rid of bias. The author explains how this helps in building trading systems based on machine learning, which become more stable on new data they were not trained on. The propensity score plays a central role and is widely used in causal inference.

This article outlines a simple strategy for normalizing the market data using the daily range and training a neural network to enhance market predictions. The developed models may be used in conjunction with an existing technical analysis frameworks or on a standalone basis to assist in predicting the overall market direction. The framework outlined in this article may be further refined by any technical analyst to develop models suitable for both manual and automated trading strategies.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence today, language models (LLMs) are an important part of artificial intelligence, so we should think about how to integrate powerful LLMs into our algorithmic trading. For most people, it is difficult to fine-tune these powerful models according to their needs, deploy them locally, and then apply them to algorithmic trading. This series of articles will take a step-by-step approach to achieve this goal.

In the forex markets It is very challenging to predict the future trend without having an idea of the past. Very few machine learning models are capable of making the future predictions by considering past values. In this article, we are going to discuss how we can use classical(Non-time series) Artificial Intelligence models to beat the market

This article continues the topic of predicting the upcoming price movement. I invite you to get acquainted with the Multi-future Transformer architecture. Its main idea is to decompose the multimodal distribution of the future into several unimodal distributions, which allows you to effectively simulate various models of interaction between agents on the scene.

The models we create are becoming larger and more complex. This increases the costs of not only their training as well as operation. However, the time required to make a decision is often critical. In this regard, let us consider methods for optimizing model performance without loss of quality.

This article introduces a fairly effective method of multi-agent trajectory forecasting, which is able to adapt to various environmental conditions.

Did you know that we can gain more accuracy forecasting certain technical indicators than predicting the underlying price of a traded symbol? Join us to explore how to leverage this insight for better trading strategies.

Generative Adversarial Networks are a pairing of Neural Networks that train off of each other for more accurate results. We adopt the conditional type of these networks as we look to possible application in forecasting Financial time series within an Expert Signal Class.

We continue to discuss algorithms for training trajectory prediction models. In this article, we will get acquainted with a method called "AutoBots".

The quality of future state predictions plays an important role in the Goal-Conditioned Predictive Coding method, which we discussed in the previous article. In this article I want to introduce you to an algorithm that can significantly improve the prediction quality in stochastic environments, such as financial markets.

In this article, we revisit a classic crude oil trading strategy with the aim of enhancing it by leveraging supervised machine learning algorithms. We will construct a least-squares model to predict future Brent crude oil prices based on the spread between Brent and WTI crude oil prices. Our goal is to identify a leading indicator of future changes in Brent prices.

Economic Calendar Data is not available for testing with Expert Advisors within Strategy Tester, by default. We look at how Databases could help in providing a work around this limitation. So, for this article we explore how SQLite databases can be used to archive Economic Calendar news such that wizard assembled Expert Advisors can use this to generate trade signals.

These advanced gradient-boosted decision tree techniques offer superior performance and flexibility, making them ideal for financial modeling and algorithmic trading. Learn how to leverage these tools to optimize your trading strategies, improve predictive accuracy, and gain a competitive edge in the financial markets.

This is a continuation of the previous article considering the idea of social groups. The article explores the evolution of social groups using movement and memory algorithms. The results will help to understand the evolution of social systems and apply them in optimization and search for solutions.

We will consider the principle of constructing multi-population algorithms. As an example of this type of algorithm, we will have a look at the new custom algorithm - Evolution of Social Groups (ESG). We will analyze the basic concepts, population interaction mechanisms and advantages of this algorithm, as well as examine its performance in optimization problems.

In previous articles, we discussed the Decision Transformer method and several algorithms derived from it. We experimented with different goal setting methods. During the experiments, we worked with various ways of setting goals. However, the model's study of the earlier passed trajectory always remained outside our attention. In this article. I want to introduce you to a method that fills this gap.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence today, language models (LLMs) are an important part of artificial intelligence, so we should think about how to integrate powerful LLMs into our algorithmic trading. For most people, it is difficult to fine-tune these powerful models according to their needs, deploy them locally, and then apply them to algorithmic trading. This series of articles will take a step-by-step approach to achieve this goal.

In this article, we will get acquainted with an algorithm that uses closed-form policy improvement operators to optimize Agent actions in offline mode.

In this article, we will look at the theory of causal inference using machine learning, as well as the custom approach implementation in Python. Causal inference and causal thinking have their roots in philosophy and psychology and play an important role in our understanding of reality.

Symbolic Regression is a form of regression that starts with minimal to no assumptions on what the underlying model that maps the sets of data under study would look like. Even though it can be implemented by Bayesian Methods or Neural Networks, we look at how an implementation with Genetic Algorithms can help customize an expert signal class usable in the MQL5 wizard.

In this article, we will look at the binary genetic algorithm (BGA), which models the natural processes that occur in the genetic material of living things in nature.

In offline learning, we use a fixed dataset, which limits the coverage of environmental diversity. During the learning process, our Agent can generate actions beyond this dataset. If there is no feedback from the environment, how can we be sure that the assessments of such actions are correct? Maintaining the Agent's policy within the training dataset becomes an important aspect to ensure the reliability of training. This is what we will talk about in this article.

This article discusses the implementation of automatic moves in the tic-tac-toe game in Python, integrated with MQL5 functions and unit tests. The goal is to improve the interactivity of the game and ensure the reliability of the system through testing in MQL5. The presentation covers game logic development, integration, and hands-on testing, and concludes with the creation of a dynamic game environment and a robust integrated system.

In this article, we will explore various methods used in binary genetic and other population algorithms. We will look at the main components of the algorithm, such as selection, crossover and mutation, and their impact on the optimization. In addition, we will study data presentation methods and their impact on optimization results.

In this article we present the implementation of a feature selection algorithm described in an academic paper titled,"FREL: A stable feature selection algorithm", called Feature weighting as regularized energy based learning.