Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

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Articles on mathematical models and laws of probability are interesting for many traders. Mathematics is the basis of technical indicators, and statistics is required to analyze trading results and develop strategies.

Read about the fuzzy logic, digital filters, market profile, Kohonen maps, neural gas and many other tools that can be used for trading.

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Neural networks made easy (Part 17): Dimensionality reduction

Neural networks made easy (Part 17): Dimensionality reduction

In this part we continue discussing Artificial Intelligence models. Namely, we study unsupervised learning algorithms. We have already discussed one of the clustering algorithms. In this article, I am sharing a variant of solving problems related to dimensionality reduction.
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Measuring Indicator Information

Measuring Indicator Information

Machine learning has become a popular method for strategy development. Whilst there has been more emphasis on maximizing profitability and prediction accuracy , the importance of processing the data used to build predictive models has not received a lot of attention. In this article we consider using the concept of entropy to evaluate the appropriateness of indicators to be used in predictive model building as documented in the book Testing and Tuning Market Trading Systems by Timothy Masters.
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Discrete Hartley transform

Discrete Hartley transform

In this article, we will consider one of the methods of spectral analysis and signal processing - the discrete Hartley transform. It allows filtering signals, analyzing their spectrum and much more. The capabilities of DHT are no less than those of the discrete Fourier transform. However, unlike DFT, DHT uses only real numbers, which makes it more convenient for implementation in practice, and the results of its application are more visual.
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Population optimization algorithms: ElectroMagnetism-like algorithm (ЕМ)

Population optimization algorithms: ElectroMagnetism-like algorithm (ЕМ)

The article describes the principles, methods and possibilities of using the Electromagnetic Algorithm in various optimization problems. The EM algorithm is an efficient optimization tool capable of working with large amounts of data and multidimensional functions.
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Forex spread trading using seasonality

Forex spread trading using seasonality

The article examines the possibilities of generating and providing reporting data on the use of the seasonality factor when trading spreads on Forex.
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Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 18): The battle of Mastering Market Complexity, Truncated SVD Versus NMF

Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 18): The battle of Mastering Market Complexity, Truncated SVD Versus NMF

Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) are dimensionality reduction techniques. They both play significant roles in shaping data-driven trading strategies. Discover the art of dimensionality reduction, unraveling insights, and optimizing quantitative analyses for an informed approach to navigating the intricacies of financial markets.
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Currency pair strength indicator in pure MQL5

Currency pair strength indicator in pure MQL5

We are going to develop a professional indicator for currency strength analysis in MQL5. This step-by-step guide will show you how to develop a powerful trading tool with a visual dashboard for MetaTrader 5. You will learn how to calculate the strength of currency pairs across multiple timeframes (H1, H4, D1), implement dynamic data updates, and create a user-friendly interface.
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Building a Trading System (Part 4): How Random Exits Influence Trading Expectancy

Building a Trading System (Part 4): How Random Exits Influence Trading Expectancy

Many traders have experienced this situation, often stick to their entry criteria but struggle with trade management. Even with the right setups, emotional decision-making—such as panic exits before trades reach their take-profit or stop-loss levels—can lead to a declining equity curve. How can traders overcome this issue and improve their results? This article will address these questions by examining random win-rates and demonstrating, through Monte Carlo simulation, how traders can refine their strategies by taking profits at reasonable levels before the original target is reached.
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Circle Search Algorithm (CSA)

Circle Search Algorithm (CSA)

The article presents a new metaheuristic optimization Circle Search Algorithm (CSA) based on the geometric properties of a circle. The algorithm uses the principle of moving points along tangents to find the optimal solution, combining the phases of global exploration and local exploitation.
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Developing a Replay System (Part 53): Things Get Complicated (V)

Developing a Replay System (Part 53): Things Get Complicated (V)

In this article, we'll cover an important topic that few people understand: Custom Events. Dangers. Advantages and disadvantages of these elements. This topic is key for those who want to become a professional programmer in MQL5 or any other language. Here we will focus on MQL5 and MetaTrader 5.
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Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 8): Monoids

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 8): Monoids

This article continues the series on category theory implementation in MQL5. Here we introduce monoids as domain (set) that sets category theory apart from other data classification methods by including rules and an identity element.
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Developing a robot in Python and MQL5 (Part 2): Model selection, creation and training, Python custom tester

Developing a robot in Python and MQL5 (Part 2): Model selection, creation and training, Python custom tester

We continue the series of articles on developing a trading robot in Python and MQL5. Today we will solve the problem of selecting and training a model, testing it, implementing cross-validation, grid search, as well as the problem of model ensemble.
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Automating Trading Strategies in MQL5 (Part 28): Creating a Price Action Bat Harmonic Pattern with Visual Feedback

Automating Trading Strategies in MQL5 (Part 28): Creating a Price Action Bat Harmonic Pattern with Visual Feedback

In this article, we develop a Bat Pattern system in MQL5 that identifies bullish and bearish Bat harmonic patterns using pivot points and Fibonacci ratios, triggering trades with precise entry, stop loss, and take-profit levels, enhanced with visual feedback through chart objects
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 44): Average True Range (ATR) technical indicator

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 44): Average True Range (ATR) technical indicator

The ATR oscillator is a very popular indicator for acting as a volatility proxy, especially in the forex markets where volume data is scarce. We examine this, on a pattern basis as we have with prior indicators, and share strategies & test reports thanks to the MQL5 wizard library classes and assembly.
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Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part III): Optimizing Simple Hedge Strategy (I)

Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part III): Optimizing Simple Hedge Strategy (I)

In this third part, we revisit the Simple Hedge and Simple Grid Expert Advisors (EAs) developed earlier. Our focus shifts to refining the Simple Hedge EA through mathematical analysis and a brute force approach, aiming for optimal strategy usage. This article delves deep into the mathematical optimization of the strategy, setting the stage for future exploration of coding-based optimization in later installments.
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Hidden Markov Models for Trend-Following Volatility Prediction

Hidden Markov Models for Trend-Following Volatility Prediction

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful statistical tools that identify underlying market states by analyzing observable price movements. In trading, HMMs enhance volatility prediction and inform trend-following strategies by modeling and anticipating shifts in market regimes. In this article, we will present the complete procedure for developing a trend-following strategy that utilizes HMMs to predict volatility as a filter.
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SP500 Trading Strategy in MQL5 For Beginners

SP500 Trading Strategy in MQL5 For Beginners

Discover how to leverage MQL5 to forecast the S&P 500 with precision, blending in classical technical analysis for added stability and combining algorithms with time-tested principles for robust market insights.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 05): Adding Previews

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 05): Adding Previews

We have managed to develop a way to implement the market replay system in a realistic and accessible way. Now let's continue our project and add data to improve the replay behavior.
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Data Science and ML (Part 41): Forex and Stock Markets Pattern Detection using YOLOv8

Data Science and ML (Part 41): Forex and Stock Markets Pattern Detection using YOLOv8

Detecting patterns in financial markets is challenging because it involves seeing what's on the chart, something that's difficult to undertake in MQL5 due to image limitations. In this article, we are going to discuss a decent model made in Python that helps us detect patterns present on the chart with minimal effort.
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Expert Advisor based on the universal MLP approximator

Expert Advisor based on the universal MLP approximator

The article presents a simple and accessible way to use a neural network in a trading EA that does not require deep knowledge of machine learning. The method eliminates the target function normalization, as well as overcomes "weight explosion" and "network stall" issues offering intuitive training and visual control of the results.
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Integrating Hidden Markov Models in MetaTrader 5

Integrating Hidden Markov Models in MetaTrader 5

In this article we demonstrate how Hidden Markov Models trained using Python can be integrated into MetaTrader 5 applications. Hidden Markov Models are a powerful statistical tool used for modeling time series data, where the system being modeled is characterized by unobservable (hidden) states. A fundamental premise of HMMs is that the probability of being in a given state at a particular time depends on the process's state at the previous time slot.
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Data label for timeseries mining (Part 2):Make datasets with trend markers using Python

Data label for timeseries mining (Part 2):Make datasets with trend markers using Python

This series of articles introduces several time series labeling methods, which can create data that meets most artificial intelligence models, and targeted data labeling according to needs can make the trained artificial intelligence model more in line with the expected design, improve the accuracy of our model, and even help the model make a qualitative leap!
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Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 12): External Flow (III) TrendMap

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 12): External Flow (III) TrendMap

The flow of the market is determined by the forces between bulls and bears. There are specific levels that the market respects due to the forces acting on them. Fibonacci and VWAP levels are especially powerful in influencing market behavior. Join me in this article as we explore a strategy based on VWAP and Fibonacci levels for signal generation.
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Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 23): Currency Strength Meter

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 23): Currency Strength Meter

Do you know what really drives a currency pair’s direction? It’s the strength of each individual currency. In this article, we’ll measure a currency’s strength by looping through every pair it appears in. That insight lets us predict how those pairs may move based on their relative strengths. Read on to learn more.
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Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 30): Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Zero Line EA

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 30): Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Zero Line EA

Automating price action analysis is the way forward. In this article, we utilize the Dual CCI indicator, the Zero Line Crossover strategy, EMA, and price action to develop a tool that generates trade signals and sets stop-loss (SL) and take-profit (TP) levels using ATR. Please read this article to learn how we approach the development of the CCI Zero Line EA.
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Integrating MQL5 with data processing packages (Part 5): Adaptive Learning and Flexibility

Integrating MQL5 with data processing packages (Part 5): Adaptive Learning and Flexibility

This part focuses on building a flexible, adaptive trading model trained on historical XAUUSD data, preparing it for ONNX export and potential integration into live trading systems.
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Neural networks made easy (Part 20): Autoencoders

Neural networks made easy (Part 20): Autoencoders

We continue to study unsupervised learning algorithms. Some readers might have questions regarding the relevance of recent publications to the topic of neural networks. In this new article, we get back to studying neural networks.
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Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 15) : Functors with Graphs

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 15) : Functors with Graphs

This article on Category Theory implementation in MQL5, continues the series by looking at Functors but this time as a bridge between Graphs and a set. We revisit calendar data, and despite its limitations in Strategy Tester use, make the case using functors in forecasting volatility with the help of correlation.
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Build Self Optimizing Expert Advisors With MQL5 And Python (Part II): Tuning Deep Neural Networks

Build Self Optimizing Expert Advisors With MQL5 And Python (Part II): Tuning Deep Neural Networks

Machine learning models come with various adjustable parameters. In this series of articles, we will explore how to customize your AI models to fit your specific market using the SciPy library.
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Data Science and ML (Part 26): The Ultimate Battle in Time Series Forecasting — LSTM vs GRU Neural Networks

Data Science and ML (Part 26): The Ultimate Battle in Time Series Forecasting — LSTM vs GRU Neural Networks

In the previous article, we discussed a simple RNN which despite its inability to understand long-term dependencies in the data, was able to make a profitable strategy. In this article, we are discussing both the Long-Short Term Memory(LSTM) and the Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU). These two were introduced to overcome the shortcomings of a simple RNN and to outsmart it.
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Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development Part (4): Analytics Forecaster EA

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development Part (4): Analytics Forecaster EA

We are moving beyond simply viewing analyzed metrics on charts to a broader perspective that includes Telegram integration. This enhancement allows important results to be delivered directly to your mobile device via the Telegram app. Join us as we explore this journey together in this article.
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Data Science and ML(Part 30): The Power Couple for Predicting the Stock Market, Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs) and Recurrent Neural Networks(RNNs)

Data Science and ML(Part 30): The Power Couple for Predicting the Stock Market, Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs) and Recurrent Neural Networks(RNNs)

In this article, We explore the dynamic integration of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) in stock market prediction. By leveraging CNNs' ability to extract patterns and RNNs' proficiency in handling sequential data. Let us see how this powerful combination can enhance the accuracy and efficiency of trading algorithms.
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Neural Networks in Trading: An Ensemble of Agents with Attention Mechanisms (Final Part)

Neural Networks in Trading: An Ensemble of Agents with Attention Mechanisms (Final Part)

In the previous article, we introduced the multi-agent adaptive framework MASAAT, which uses an ensemble of agents to perform cross-analysis of multimodal time series at different data scales. Today we will continue implementing the approaches of this framework in MQL5 and bring this work to a logical conclusion.
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Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 5): Volatility Navigator EA

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 5): Volatility Navigator EA

Determining market direction can be straightforward, but knowing when to enter can be challenging. As part of the series titled "Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development", I am excited to introduce another tool that provides entry points, take profit levels, and stop loss placements. To achieve this, we have utilized the MQL5 programming language. Let’s delve into each step in this article.
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Quantitative analysis in MQL5: Implementing a promising algorithm

Quantitative analysis in MQL5: Implementing a promising algorithm

We will analyze the question of what quantitative analysis is and how it is used by major players. We will create one of the quantitative analysis algorithms in the MQL5 language.
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Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 20): External Flow (IV) — Correlation Pathfinder

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 20): External Flow (IV) — Correlation Pathfinder

Correlation Pathfinder offers a fresh approach to understanding currency pair dynamics as part of the Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development Series. This tool automates data collection and analysis, providing insight into how pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD interact. Enhance your trading strategy with practical, real-time information that helps you manage risk and spot opportunities more effectively.
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Population optimization algorithms: Artificial Bee Colony (ABC)

Population optimization algorithms: Artificial Bee Colony (ABC)

In this article, we will study the algorithm of an artificial bee colony and supplement our knowledge with new principles of studying functional spaces. In this article, I will showcase my interpretation of the classic version of the algorithm.
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Data Science and Machine Learning(Part 14): Finding Your Way in the Markets with Kohonen Maps

Data Science and Machine Learning(Part 14): Finding Your Way in the Markets with Kohonen Maps

Are you looking for a cutting-edge approach to trading that can help you navigate complex and ever-changing markets? Look no further than Kohonen maps, an innovative form of artificial neural networks that can help you uncover hidden patterns and trends in market data. In this article, we'll explore how Kohonen maps work, and how they can be used to develop smarter, more effective trading strategies. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, you won't want to miss this exciting new approach to trading.
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MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 10): Building a Strategy Tracker System with Visual Levels and Success Metrics

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 10): Building a Strategy Tracker System with Visual Levels and Success Metrics

In this article, we develop an MQL5 strategy tracker system that detects moving average crossover signals filtered by a long-term MA, simulates or executes trades with configurable TP levels and SL in points, and monitors outcomes like TP/SL hits for performance analysis.
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Black-Scholes Greeks: Gamma and Delta

Black-Scholes Greeks: Gamma and Delta

Gamma and Delta measure how an option’s value reacts to changes in the underlying asset’s price. Delta represents the rate of change of the option’s price relative to the underlying, while Gamma measures how Delta itself changes as price moves. Together, they describe an option’s directional sensitivity and convexity—critical for dynamic hedging and volatility-based trading strategies.