Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

icon

Articles on mathematical models and laws of probability are interesting for many traders. Mathematics is the basis of technical indicators, and statistics is required to analyze trading results and develop strategies.

Read about the fuzzy logic, digital filters, market profile, Kohonen maps, neural gas and many other tools that can be used for trading.

Add a new article
latest | best
preview
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 13): Birth of the SIMULATOR (III)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 13): Birth of the SIMULATOR (III)

Here we will simplify a few elements related to the work in the next article. I'll also explain how you can visualize what the simulator generates in terms of randomness.
preview
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 24): FOREX (V)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 24): FOREX (V)

Today we will remove a limitation that has been preventing simulations based on the Last price and will introduce a new entry point specifically for this type of simulation. The entire operating mechanism will be based on the principles of the forex market. The main difference in this procedure is the separation of Bid and Last simulations. However, it is important to note that the methodology used to randomize the time and adjust it to be compatible with the C_Replay class remains identical in both simulations. This is good because changes in one mode lead to automatic improvements in the other, especially when it comes to handling time between ticks.
preview
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 22): FOREX (III)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 22): FOREX (III)

Although this is the third article on this topic, I must explain for those who have not yet understood the difference between the stock market and the foreign exchange market: the big difference is that in the Forex there is no, or rather, we are not given information about some points that actually occurred during the course of trading.
preview
News Trading Made Easy (Part 3): Performing Trades

News Trading Made Easy (Part 3): Performing Trades

In this article, our news trading expert will begin opening trades based on the economic calendar stored in our database. In addition, we will improve the expert's graphics to display more relevant information about upcoming economic calendar events.
preview
Elements of correlation analysis in MQL5: Pearson chi-square test of independence and correlation ratio

Elements of correlation analysis in MQL5: Pearson chi-square test of independence and correlation ratio

The article observes classical tools of correlation analysis. An emphasis is made on brief theoretical background, as well as on the practical implementation of the Pearson chi-square test of independence and the correlation ratio.
preview
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 19): Necessary adjustments

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 19): Necessary adjustments

Here we will prepare the ground so that if we need to add new functions to the code, this will happen smoothly and easily. The current code cannot yet cover or handle some of the things that will be necessary to make meaningful progress. We need everything to be structured in order to enable the implementation of certain things with the minimal effort. If we do everything correctly, we can get a truly universal system that can very easily adapt to any situation that needs to be handled.
preview
Neural networks made easy (Part 40): Using Go-Explore on large amounts of data

Neural networks made easy (Part 40): Using Go-Explore on large amounts of data

This article discusses the use of the Go-Explore algorithm over a long training period, since the random action selection strategy may not lead to a profitable pass as training time increases.
preview
Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part III): Optimizing Simple Hedge Strategy (I)

Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part III): Optimizing Simple Hedge Strategy (I)

In this third part, we revisit the Simple Hedge and Simple Grid Expert Advisors (EAs) developed earlier. Our focus shifts to refining the Simple Hedge EA through mathematical analysis and a brute force approach, aiming for optimal strategy usage. This article delves deep into the mathematical optimization of the strategy, setting the stage for future exploration of coding-based optimization in later installments.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 37): Paving the Path (I)

Developing a Replay System (Part 37): Paving the Path (I)

In this article, we will finally begin to do what we wanted to do much earlier. However, due to the lack of "solid ground", I did not feel confident to present this part publicly. Now I have the basis to do this. I suggest that you focus as much as possible on understanding the content of this article. I mean not simply reading it. I want to emphasize that if you do not understand this article, you can completely give up hope of understanding the content of the following ones.
preview
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 37): Gaussian Process Regression with Linear and Matern Kernels

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 37): Gaussian Process Regression with Linear and Matern Kernels

Linear Kernels are the simplest matrix of its kind used in machine learning for linear regression and support vector machines. The Matérn kernel on the other hand is a more versatile version of the Radial Basis Function we looked at in an earlier article, and it is adept at mapping functions that are not as smooth as the RBF would assume. We build a custom signal class that utilizes both kernels in forecasting long and short conditions.
preview
Population optimization algorithms: Mind Evolutionary Computation (MEC) algorithm

Population optimization algorithms: Mind Evolutionary Computation (MEC) algorithm

The article considers the algorithm of the MEC family called the simple mind evolutionary computation algorithm (Simple MEC, SMEC). The algorithm is distinguished by the beauty of its idea and ease of implementation.
preview
Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 17): Money in the Trees? The Art and Science of Random Forests in Forex Trading

Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 17): Money in the Trees? The Art and Science of Random Forests in Forex Trading

Discover the secrets of algorithmic alchemy as we guide you through the blend of artistry and precision in decoding financial landscapes. Unearth how Random Forests transform data into predictive prowess, offering a unique perspective on navigating the complex terrain of stock markets. Join us on this journey into the heart of financial wizardry, where we demystify the role of Random Forests in shaping market destiny and unlocking the doors to lucrative opportunities
preview
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 12): Birth of the SIMULATOR (II)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 12): Birth of the SIMULATOR (II)

Developing a simulator can be much more interesting than it seems. Today we'll take a few more steps in this direction because things are getting more interesting.
preview
Data Science and ML (Part 29): Essential Tips for Selecting the Best Forex Data for AI Training Purposes

Data Science and ML (Part 29): Essential Tips for Selecting the Best Forex Data for AI Training Purposes

In this article, we dive deep into the crucial aspects of choosing the most relevant and high-quality Forex data to enhance the performance of AI models.
preview
Data Science and ML (Part 26): The Ultimate Battle in Time Series Forecasting — LSTM vs GRU Neural Networks

Data Science and ML (Part 26): The Ultimate Battle in Time Series Forecasting — LSTM vs GRU Neural Networks

In the previous article, we discussed a simple RNN which despite its inability to understand long-term dependencies in the data, was able to make a profitable strategy. In this article, we are discussing both the Long-Short Term Memory(LSTM) and the Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU). These two were introduced to overcome the shortcomings of a simple RNN and to outsmart it.
preview
Visualizing deals on a chart (Part 2): Data graphical display

Visualizing deals on a chart (Part 2): Data graphical display

Here we are going to develop a script from scratch that simplifies unloading print screens of deals for analyzing trading entries. All the necessary information on a single deal is to be conveniently displayed on one chart with the ability to draw different timeframes.
preview
Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 25): Forex Timeseries Forecasting Using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)

Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 25): Forex Timeseries Forecasting Using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) excel at leveraging past information to predict future events. Their remarkable predictive capabilities have been applied across various domains with great success. In this article, we will deploy RNN models to predict trends in the forex market, demonstrating their potential to enhance forecasting accuracy in forex trading.
preview
GIT: What is it?

GIT: What is it?

In this article, I will introduce a very important tool for developers. If you are not familiar with GIT, read this article to get an idea of what it is and how to use it with MQL5.
preview
Alternative risk return metrics in MQL5

Alternative risk return metrics in MQL5

In this article we present the implementation of several risk return metrics billed as alternatives to the Sharpe ratio and examine hypothetical equity curves to analyze their characteristics.
preview
Population optimization algorithms: Differential Evolution (DE)

Population optimization algorithms: Differential Evolution (DE)

In this article, we will consider the algorithm that demonstrates the most controversial results of all those discussed previously - the differential evolution (DE) algorithm.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 28): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (II)

Developing a Replay System (Part 28): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (II)

When people started creating the first systems capable of computing, everything required the participation of engineers, who had to know the project very well. We are talking about the dawn of computer technology, a time when there were not even terminals for programming. As it developed and more people got interested in being able to create something, new ideas and ways of programming emerged which replaced the previous-style changing of connector positions. This is when the first terminals appeared.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 51): Things Get Complicated (III)

Developing a Replay System (Part 51): Things Get Complicated (III)

In this article, we will look into one of the most difficult issues in the field of MQL5 programming: how to correctly obtain a chart ID, and why objects are sometimes not plotted on the chart. The materials presented here are for didactic purposes only. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.
preview
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 24): Moving Averages

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 24): Moving Averages

Moving Averages are a very common indicator that are used and understood by most Traders. We explore possible use cases that may not be so common within MQL5 Wizard assembled Expert Advisors.
preview
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 23): A different look at the Double Exponential Moving Average

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 23): A different look at the Double Exponential Moving Average

In this article we continue with our theme in the last of tackling everyday trading indicators viewed in a ‘new’ light. We are handling horizontal composition of natural transformations for this piece and the best indicator for this, that expands on what we just covered, is the double exponential moving average (DEMA).
preview
Population optimization algorithms: Changing shape, shifting probability distributions and testing on Smart Cephalopod (SC)

Population optimization algorithms: Changing shape, shifting probability distributions and testing on Smart Cephalopod (SC)

The article examines the impact of changing the shape of probability distributions on the performance of optimization algorithms. We will conduct experiments using the Smart Cephalopod (SC) test algorithm to evaluate the efficiency of various probability distributions in the context of optimization problems.
preview
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 11): Number Walls

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 11): Number Walls

Number Walls are a variant of Linear Shift Back Registers that prescreen sequences for predictability by checking for convergence. We look at how these ideas could be of use in MQL5.
preview
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 25): Preparing for the next phase

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 25): Preparing for the next phase

In this article, we complete the first phase of developing our replay and simulation system. Dear reader, with this achievement I confirm that the system has reached an advanced level, paving the way for the introduction of new functionality. The goal is to enrich the system even further, turning it into a powerful tool for research and development of market analysis.
preview
Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 16): A Refreshing Look at Decision Trees

Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 16): A Refreshing Look at Decision Trees

Dive into the intricate world of decision trees in the latest installment of our Data Science and Machine Learning series. Tailored for traders seeking strategic insights, this article serves as a comprehensive recap, shedding light on the powerful role decision trees play in the analysis of market trends. Explore the roots and branches of these algorithmic trees, unlocking their potential to enhance your trading decisions. Join us for a refreshing perspective on decision trees and discover how they can be your allies in navigating the complexities of financial markets.
preview
Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 8): Load testing and handling a new bar

Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 8): Load testing and handling a new bar

As we progressed, we used more and more simultaneously running instances of trading strategies in one EA. Let's try to figure out how many instances we can get to before we hit resource limitations.
preview
Population optimization algorithms: Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm. Part I

Population optimization algorithms: Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm. Part I

The Simulated Annealing algorithm is a metaheuristic inspired by the metal annealing process. In the article, we will conduct a thorough analysis of the algorithm and debunk a number of common beliefs and myths surrounding this widely known optimization method. The second part of the article will consider the custom Simulated Isotropic Annealing (SIA) algorithm.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 36): Making Adjustments (II)

Developing a Replay System (Part 36): Making Adjustments (II)

One of the things that can make our lives as programmers difficult is assumptions. In this article, I will show you how dangerous it is to make assumptions: both in MQL5 programming, where you assume that the type will have a certain value, and in MetaTrader 5, where you assume that different servers work the same.
preview
Population optimization algorithms: Binary Genetic Algorithm (BGA). Part II

Population optimization algorithms: Binary Genetic Algorithm (BGA). Part II

In this article, we will look at the binary genetic algorithm (BGA), which models the natural processes that occur in the genetic material of living things in nature.
preview
Cross-validation and basics of causal inference in CatBoost models, export to ONNX format

Cross-validation and basics of causal inference in CatBoost models, export to ONNX format

The article proposes the method of creating bots using machine learning.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 31): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (V)

Developing a Replay System (Part 31): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (V)

We need a timer that can show how much time is left till the end of the replay/simulation run. This may seem at first glance to be a simple and quick solution. Many simply try to adapt and use the same system that the trading server uses. But there's one thing that many people don't consider when thinking about this solution: with replay, and even m ore with simulation, the clock works differently. All this complicates the creation of such a system.
preview
Feature Engineering With Python And MQL5 (Part I): Forecasting Moving Averages For Long-Range AI Models

Feature Engineering With Python And MQL5 (Part I): Forecasting Moving Averages For Long-Range AI Models

The moving averages are by far the best indicators for our AI models to predict. However, we can improve our accuracy even further by carefully transforming our data. This article will demonstrate, how you can build AI Models capable of forecasting further into the future than you may currently be practicing without significant drops to your accuracy levels. It is truly remarkable, how useful the moving averages are.
preview
Comet Tail Algorithm (CTA)

Comet Tail Algorithm (CTA)

In this article, we will look at the Comet Tail Optimization Algorithm (CTA), which draws inspiration from unique space objects - comets and their impressive tails that form when approaching the Sun. The algorithm is based on the concept of the motion of comets and their tails, and is designed to find optimal solutions in optimization problems.
preview
The base class of population algorithms as the backbone of efficient optimization

The base class of population algorithms as the backbone of efficient optimization

The article represents a unique research attempt to combine a variety of population algorithms into a single class to simplify the application of optimization methods. This approach not only opens up opportunities for the development of new algorithms, including hybrid variants, but also creates a universal basic test stand. This stand becomes a key tool for choosing the optimal algorithm depending on a specific task.
preview
Developing a quality factor for Expert Advisors

Developing a quality factor for Expert Advisors

In this article, we will see how to develop a quality score that your Expert Advisor can display in the strategy tester. We will look at two well-known calculation methods – Van Tharp and Sunny Harris.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 44): Chart Trade Project (III)

Developing a Replay System (Part 44): Chart Trade Project (III)

In the previous article I explained how you can manipulate template data for use in OBJ_CHART. In that article, I only outlined the topic without going into details, since in that version the work was done in a very simplified way. This was done to make it easier to explain the content, because despite the apparent simplicity of many things, some of them were not so obvious, and without understanding the simplest and most basic part, you would not be able to truly understand the entire picture.
preview
Price Driven CGI Model: Theoretical Foundation

Price Driven CGI Model: Theoretical Foundation

Let's discuss the data manipulation algorithm, as we dive deeper into conceptualizing the idea of using price data to drive CGI objects. Think about transferring the effects of events, human emotions and actions on financial asset prices to a real-life model. This study delves into leveraging price data to influence the scale of a CGI object, controlling growth and emotions. These visible effects can establish a fresh analytical foundation for traders. Further insights are shared in the article.