Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu / Profilo

#XAUUSD #Gold #Trading #Forex #PiyushRatnu

Read previous article in which I had projected $2369 as potential buying zone:


https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/comments/1e9cjfh/xauusd_23422323_or_24852509_in_next_10_days/

XAUUSD today's low: $2366,
reversal achieved: $2366-2377 at 13.30 hours.

🟢 Gold found fresh buying interest after its aggressive pullback from a record high of 2,483 paused at 2,383. The precious metal is currently looking to gain more, subject to key economic data scheduled to be published in next three days in sequence.

🟢 India slashed its import tax on gold and silver, a move that could further boost demand for both precious metals in the world’s second-biggest gold market and support higher prices globally.

The move will cut taxes on gold and silver imports by more than half, lowering duties from 15 percent to 6 percent. India will also lower the import tax on platinum to 6.4 percent.

Government officials hope that lowering the import duty will put a damper on rampant gold smuggling.

India Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the goal was to “enhance domestic value addition in gold and precious metal jewelry in the country.”

World Gold Council Indian operations CEO Sachin Jain told Reuters the tax cut is “a massive step in the right direction. It will reduce the incentives for smuggling of gold. It will create a level playing field for honest industry stakeholders.

Co-relations:

US 10 YT +
DXY +
XAUXAG 82.40
USD S 39
AUD S 35
JPY S 80


USDJPY net crash 155.900-154.500= 1400P

Possible impact on XAUUSD: (+) $40+

Important Economic Data today:

16:30 USD Building Permits 1.446M 1.399M
16:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Jun) -98.80B -99.37B
16:30 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun)
17:45 USD S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.7 51.6
17:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) 54.8
17:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) 54.7 55.3
18:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) -11.3%
18:00 USD New Home Sales (Jun) 639K 619K
18:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.600M -4.870M
18:30 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.875M
20:00 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 2.7% 2.7%
21:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction 4.331%

🟢Crucial Price Zones today:

🔻BZ $2400/2385
🔺SZ $2430/2440

#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #Gold #Forex #Trading

🟢 Political Uncertainty to drive GOLD Price for next few months

The recent developments in the US and China have significant implications for the gold market. Investors reacted little to President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign, as the US equity market is expected to benefit from Trump's proposed policies.

This shift in political dynamics could lead to a more inflationary environment under a potential second Trump presidency, pushing US Treasury bond yields higher. Higher yields often attract investors away from non-yielding assets like gold, contributing to downward pressure on gold prices. Additionally, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) unexpected rate cuts have bolstered global risk sentiment, diminishing the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Despite the strong market drop last week and the emergence of a weekly bearish hammer, the overall market remains bullish. This bullish outlook is also validated by the ratio of senior gold miners to the US stock market, which shows a bottom and looks poised to rally.

This ratio indicates that the bottom in the gold market in 2024 is similar to the bottom in 2015 when the gold market rallied higher, along with the ratio.

Therefore, any price correction in gold prices indicates a buying opportunity for investors.

In conclusion, recent political and economic developments in the US and China have introduced some bearish factors for the gold market. These include a potentially more inflationary environment under a second Trump presidency and increased global risk sentiment due to China's rate cuts. The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut and supportive technical indicators suggest potential support for gold prices. As investors navigate through upcoming US economic data and global economic health indicators, the interplay between these factors will continue to shape gold's trajectory, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors.

🔺 The correction in gold is considered a strong buying opportunity for traders and investors.

📌 Crucial Price Zones Ahead

as per PRSR D1 and W1 average

🔻SZ $2442/2469/2485/2509/2525
🔺BZ $2385/2369/2342/2323/2303

#Gaemi #XAUUSD #Forex #Trading #Taiwan

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-23/typhoon-gaemi-shuts-taiwan-s-financial-markets-and-offices

Thinner volumes might impact Dollar volatility, resulting in sudden rally in XAUUSD/Spot Gold price.

TRUMP effect: The TRIUMPH factor for DOLLAR!

“Recall, our gauge of discretionary trader positioning in Gold remains bloated relative to rates market expectations, with signs that the Trump trade has contributed to some froth above and beyond what is consistent with expectations of Fed cuts alone.

“Positioning risks are now asymmetrically skewed to the downside in the Yellow Metal, with Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) effectively sitting on a 'max long' position that remains vulnerable to a break south of $2380/oz, whereas even a modest reversal of the Trump trade could catalyze additional selling activity.”

“With Asia on a buyer's strike, as highlighted by the plummeting SGE premium alongside notable long liquidations on Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), a liquidity vacuum could ensue with fewer buyers to offset potential liquidations from a potential reversal of the Trump trade compounded by CTA selling activity in a downtape. The window for downside is open in the Yellow Metal.”

#TDS

#PiyushRatnu XAUUSD Analysis & Research | #Forex #Trading

$2407 achieved before 24 July 2024 | #AccuracyCheck

XAUUSD $2485-2385 ZONE AHICEVED. $100 CRASH IN 4 TRADING DAYS.

#PiyushRatnu XAUUSD Analysis & Research | #Forex #Trading

#XAUUSD Crash from $2407 - 2397-2387 (2389) achieved

$20 crash: RT 30% *20 $6$2389 +6= 2395CMP $2394.50

#PiyushRatnu #Gold #Dollar #Forex #Trading

#XAUUSD #Forex #Gold

As projected on 17 July 2024: $2407 achieved before 24.07.2024

#PiyushRatnu #Trading #Analysis #Education

XAUUSD CMP $2424 | as projected by us on 17 July 2024.

Why XAUUSD crashed from $2484-2469-2442-2424?

Analysis by Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research

We projected a crash before 24 July 2024 till $2424/2407 in advance, verify at: https://x.com/piyushratnu/status/1813428216863896037/photo/1

Gold price is on a three-day corrective decline from record highs of $2,484 on Friday, paring back weekly gains amid a solid rebound staged by the US Dollar (USD) alongside the US Treasury bond yields. 

Escalating trade tensions between the US and China combined with uncertainty on whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will go for another interest-rate cut after lowering rates in September weighed on the market sentiment, lifting the US Treasury bond yields across the curve. This, in turn, propelled the US Dollar from four-month troughs against its major currency rivals.

Alert:

Gold traders will stay cautious, as the end-of-the-week flows will remain in play and position readjustments ahead of next week’s advance US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second quarter.

🆘 Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while another cut in December is also likely, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.

Data on Thursday showed that US jobless claims rose to the highest level in nearly a year to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 13. On the other hand, The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index jumped from 1.3 in June to an impressive 13.9 in July, reaching its highest point since April and smashing the 2.9 forecast. Mixed US economic data combined with prudent Fed commentary raised concerns on the scope of the Fed rate cuts this year.

Looking ahead, all eyes will remain on the speeches from the Fed officials, as the US central bank enters its ‘blackout period’ on Saturday before July 30-31 policy meeting. Fed policymakers John Williams and Raphael Bostic are due to speak later in the American session on Friday.  

🍎 Summary:

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the Asian session on Friday and is currently placed near a multi-day low, around the $2,425 region. The US Dollar (USD) builds on the previous day's solid recovery from a four-month low and turns out to be a key factor dragging the commodity lower for the third successive day. Apart from this, some profit-taking, especially after the recent rally of over 6.5% since the beginning of this month, further contributes to the decline, though the downside seems limited.

Investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start lowering borrowing costs in September and have been pricing in the possibility of two more rate cuts by year end. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields on the defensive and should cap the USD. Apart from this, the risk-off mood could lend support to the safe-haven Gold price. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand should help limit any meaningful depreciating move for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Crucial Price Zones Ahead:

🔻BZ $2407/2385/2369/2332
🔺SZ $2469/2485/2500/2525

Why #XAUUSD crashed?

Read here: https://t.me/PiyushRatnuGoldAnalysis/193

🆘 Key Factors that might impact XAUUSD demand / Gold price / Interest Rate Cut Decision if Mr. Trump wins the elections:

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that former President Donald Trump, in a meeting with House Republicans last month, expressed support for tax reductions, lower interest rates, and increased tariffs. These measures could potentially be inflationary for the economy and weaken the Greenback, which may, in turn, boost the demand for dollar-denominated Gold.

During an interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday, Donald Trump cautioned Fed Chair Jerome Powell against cutting US interest rates before November’s presidential vote. However, Trump also indicated that if re-elected, he would allow Powell to complete his term if he continued to "do the right thing" at the Federal Reserve.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Dr. Adriana Kugler acknowledged that inflationary pressures have eased but emphasized that the Fed still needs additional data to justify a rate cut. Kugler indicated that if upcoming data does not confirm that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, it may be appropriate to maintain current rates for a while longer, per Reuters.

XAUUSD CMP: $2466

Current Status:
M15A618
H1A382

Expected stop (C)
M15A100 $2455
H1A618 $2442

Upcoming Economic Event:

49 min EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Jul) 3.75% 3.75%
49 min EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.50%
49 min EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
49 min EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 4.25% 4.25%

Current Fundamentals:

The dollar has bounced Thursday after falling to its lowest level since March during the previous session.

Confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September, to boost a slowing economy, has weighed heavily on the greenback.

EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.0928, slipping slightly from Wednesday's four-month peak ahead of a policy-setting European Central Bank meeting later in the session.

The central bank is widely expected to keep rates steady, after cutting in June, and thus attention will largely be on the comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the accompanying press conference.

USD/CNY slipped slightly lower at 7.2586, with the pair steadying below eight-month highs.
Sentiment towards China worsened as a Bloomberg report said the U.S. was considering stricter curbs on China’s technology and chipmaking industry - a move that could draw ire from Beijing and spark a renewed trade war between the world’s biggest economies.

XAUUSD

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to near $2,470 per troy ounce on Thursday, remaining close to record highs amid growing optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce rates in September. Lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like Gold more attractive to investors.

Federal Reserve officials have expressed increasing confidence that the pace of price increases is now more consistently aligning with policymakers' goals. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the US central bank is ‘getting closer’ to an interest rate cut. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that easing in inflation had begun to broaden and he would like to see it continue,” per Reuters. Traders will likely observe the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday, along with the Fed’s Lorie Logan speech.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against the six other major currencies, rebounds due to improved US Treasury yields. The DXY trades around 103.80, with yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds standing at 4.45% and 4.17%, respectively, at the time of writing. This scenario may limit the upside of the Gold prices.

🟢 Crucial XAUUSD Price Stops:

🔻BZ $2448/2440
🔺SZ $2490/2509

The escalating deficits and soaring national debt influence the gold market positively. As the U.S. debt continues to climb, reaching unprecedented levels, concerns about the stability of the U.S. dollar and the country's fiscal health grow. Historically, gold has been a preferred hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Investors tend to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty, anticipating that it will retain its value better than fiat currencies subject to inflationary pressures. Consequently, the increasing national debt and deficit can drive up the demand for gold, pushing its prices higher.

Moreover, the rising debt interest payments, which are projected to exceed $1 trillion, indicate a growing burden on the federal budget. As the government allocates more resources to service its debt, it may have to resort to further monetary easing or other measures that could devalue the currency. Such fiscal policies often erode investor confidence in traditional assets and fiat currencies, making gold an attractive alternative. The perception of gold as a stable store of value becomes more pronounced, especially when government spending and debt levels appear unsustainable. This shift in investor sentiment can lead to increased purchases of gold, thereby boosting its market price.

On the other hand, geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation also play a crucial role in enhancing gold's appeal. As geopolitical conflicts and divisions between major economic powers like the U.S. and China intensify, global markets may experience heightened volatility and uncertainty. These geopolitical risks can disrupt international trade and economic stability, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold. Additionally, if economic fragmentation leads to a bifurcated global economy, with distinct blocs aligning with either the U.S. or China, the potential for economic instability increases. In such a fragmented world, gold serves as a universal asset, unbound by the fortunes of any single currency or economy, thus becoming even more attractive as a safe haven.

This increased demand for gold amid geopolitical strife can drive its prices upward, benefiting the gold market significantly.

The combination of rising national debt, escalating deficits, and geopolitical tensions creates a highly favorable environment for the gold market. As investors seek to protect their assets against inflation, currency devaluation, and economic instability, gold emerges as a reliable safe-haven asset. The increasing fiscal burdens on the U.S. government, coupled with global geopolitical strife, drive up demand for gold, pushing its prices to new heights. By closely monitoring these macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, investors can strategically trade gold, leveraging technical analysis and market insights to capitalize on gold's potential for significant gains during times of uncertainty. The recent breakout in the gold market has initiated a strong surge and is likely to continue higher in July and August.

#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #PiyushRatnu #forextrading

It will be worth observing!

Read the journey and check the accuracy of our analysis at x.com/piyushratnu

Copy and paste this link in your browser:
https://x.com/piyushratnu/status/1813434546206966264

$2469 and $2479 price targets achieved on 16 July and 17 July respectively.

As projected and published by us on 16 July 2024 at 11.30 AM

#PiyushRatnu #PRGoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #Forex #GoldTraders

$2449 Target Price achieved | XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu

Why XAUUSD / Spot Gold Price is rising since last 24 hours?

Analysis by Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research

(Range witnessed: $2407-2424-2442)
Projected by us in advance since last Thursday

Verify at: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/comments/1e19xbw/why_xauusd_price_breached_2424_after_reversing/

Gold price is looking to extend previous gains early Tuesday, having clinched a new two-month high at $2,440 a day ago. Growing expectations that a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cut in September is a done deal continue to underpin the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

🟢 Powell's Comments

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments affirmed bets for a rate reduction in September after he said Monday that the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to lower interest rates. The Fed is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level, Powell added.

Those remarks by the Fed Chief fueled a fresh leg down in the US Dollar (USD) alongside the US Treasury bond yields, driving Gold price back toward an all-time high of $2,450 zone.

🟢 Trump Assassination Attempt

Earlier, yesterday, Gold price witnessed some corrective moves, as the Greenback took advantage of risk-aversion induced by the weekend’s assassination attempt on ex-US President Donald Trump during his Pennsylvania rally. Investors digested the fateful Trump attack and ramped up the odds of his win in the US Presidential race.

🟢 China Second Quarter GDP

Further, investors flocked to safety in the USD following China’s second-quarter GDP miss in Asian hours on Monday. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday that the world's second-largest economy grew 4.7% year-on-year in April-June, slowing from 5.3% in the previous three months while recording the weakest growth since the third quarter of 2023.

🟢 China Stimulus

Speculations that China could roll out stimulus measures to boost economic performance could also render Gold positive in the near term.

🟢 Weak US Treasury Bonds

In Tuesday’s trading so far, Gold price is gathering strength for the next push higher even as the US Dollar stages a modest comeback. The rebound in the USD/JPY pair could be attributed to the USD uptick. However, weak US Treasury bond yields continue to support the non-yielding Gold price.

🟢 Core Retail Sales Data today

Later in the day, the US Retail Sales report and Fedspeak will grab the eyeballs, as traders look to seal in a September Fed rate cut. Weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data could reinforce the USD selling, lifting the Gold price northward.

🟢 Key Economic Data today:

16:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% -0.1%

16:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun) -0.6%

16:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% -0.4%

16:30 USD Retail Control (MoM) (Jun) 0.4%

16:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -0.3% 0.1%

18:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (May) 0.4% 0.3%

18:00 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May) 0.0% 0.3%

20:00 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 2.0% 2.0%

🟢 Crucial Price Zones today:

🔻BZ $2407/2385

🔺SZ $2450/2469