Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 28
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Statistics don't work in forex. Well, at least I didn't find any coincidence. I tried the LIBOR rate for different countries (currencies), macroeconomic data etc. I have not found anything to latch on to in this matter. Found some patterns in treasuries (prices), not yields. If bonds broke through the channel at historical highs, the dollar would start to fall and the euro would naturally rise.
Well that's your statistics "not working". Something works at the macro level and everyone knows it very well. And for sure, without knowledge of macroeconomics no one will be hired for a senior position at a reputable bank.
Igor Mityukov, for example. His dissertation in our graduate school was on macroeconomics, "Modelling Planning Calculations in the Agro-Industrial Complex... Then he initiated the creation of a currency dealing room at the then largest bank Ukraine and regulated currency settlements there, and then at the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, and now he is the director of the entire Morgan Stanley Bank in Ukraine.
http://ru.golos.ua/politika/13_06_21_mityukov_igor_aleksandrovich
Well it's your statistics that "don't work". Some things work at the macro level, and that is well known to all. And it is certain that without knowledge of macroeconomics, no one will be hired for a managerial position at a reputable bank.
Igor Mityukov, for example. His dissertation in our graduate school was on macroeconomics, "Modelling Planning Calculations in the Agricultural Sector... with the account of inter-sectoral relations", then in the biggest bank "Ukraine" he initiated creation of the currency dealing room, put in order currency settlements there, and then in the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, and now he is the director of the whole Morgan Stanley Bank in Ukraine.
http://ru.golos.ua/politika/13_06_21_mityukov_igor_aleksandrovich
So what. Is that relevant to trading? Cybernetics and mathematics is certainly good. I want to study mathematical models and try to apply them myself.
But I have not seen anyone make a profitable forex strategy based on economic data. And I have checked it myself.
For example, there are times when there is a cycle of rate increases and currency decreases and vice versa. The most illogical market is Forex.
However, I have one idea. When I have enough time, I will check it: select the basic data and optimize each type of data providing weight to each one. Then I will create an indicator based on all data types.
So far I have limited hardware. It takes much time to check it.
So what. Is it relevant to trading? Cybernetics and mathematics are certainly good. I myself want to study mathematical models and try to apply them.
But I have not seen anyone make a profitable forex strategy based on economic data. I have checked it myself as well.
For example, there are times when there is a cycle of rate increases and currency decreases and vice versa. The most illogical market is Forex.
However, I have one idea. When I have enough time, I will check it: select the basic data and optimize each type of data providing weight to each one. Then I will create an indicator based on all data types.
So far I have limited hardware. It takes much time to check it.
No, of course not. The work of Morgan Stanley Bank has nothing to do with trading and currency forecasting. Why me?
And yes, it goes without saying that if you have not seen something yourself, it simply does not exist. And if you have "seen it", then there is certainly nothing for others to see.
So what. Is it relevant to trading? Cybernetics and mathematics are certainly good. I myself want to study mathematical models and try to apply them.
But I have not seen anyone make a profitable forex strategy based on economic data. And I have checked it myself.
For example, there are times when there is a cycle of rate increases and currency decreases and vice versa. The most illogical market is Forex.
It is true, there is one idea. When I have enough time, I will check it: to select the basic data and optimize each type of data, giving weight to each one. Then I will make an indicator based on all data types.
I am limited in hardware at the moment. It takes a lot of time to check.
Hello, if you don't see the logic, it doesn't mean there isn't one. There is logic in everything, in forex it is the transition of funds from weak hands to strong hands, and this is done all the time.
Good news is released, but the price has not risen - it means that these indicators have already been taken into account in the current price.
The bad news came out but the price went up - it means that everybody was selling and the big players did not give their profits.
Good/bad news came out but the price did not go up/down, so big players are waiting for a better time.
It doesn't hurt to know the news time, but they should not be used as a basis for a trading system. At one time I traded on the news AUD, CAD and NZD, the results were not bad, but a lot depended on the internal state, interpretation of the schedule and expected news releases. My conclusion: you should not trade because of the news.
No, of course not. The work of Morgan Stanley Bank has nothing to do with trading and currency forecasting. Why am I doing this?
And yes, it goes without saying that if you have not seen something yourself, it simply does not exist. And if you have "seen it", then there is certainly nothing for others to see.
I can't say for sure. Maybe there is something there. But, at one time I spent quite a lot of time checking in this area.
Some time ago on the forum there was a branch on quantum analysis. To be honest I did not understand a lot in it, the idea kind of stalled. To be honest I don't know much about mathematics. I want to understand it in time.
I started to read books by Edgar Peters, but I didn't understand anything. Without knowledge this field is impossible to master, it's all in formulas.
Hello, if you don't see logic, it doesn't mean it doesn't exist. There is logic in everything, in forex it is the transfer of funds from weak hands to strong hands, and this is done all the time.
Good news is released, but the price has not risen - it means that these indicators have already been taken into account in the current price.
The bad news came out but the price went up - it means that everybody was selling and the big players did not give their profit.
Good/bad news came out but the price did not go up/down, so big players are waiting for a better time.
It doesn't hurt to know the news time, but they should not be used as a basis for a trading system. At one time I traded on the news AUD, CAD and NZD, the results were not bad, but a lot depended on the internal state, interpretation of the schedule and expected news releases. My conclusion: you should not trade because of the news.
I will say this without reference to any of the above.
Those who think that there is a complete idiot on the other side of the deal, or an ignoramus with no understanding of mathematics or economics, are dead wrong. This is especially evident in the radicals or physicists who come into the market. Especially in the forex market, where the noise component of the time series is no less than the trend (invisible).
Too much conceit, and even more so, arrogance is well treated... If a person is ready to make mistakes, he or she will learn from them. And if one is not ready, the cure may be very painful.
In science, as in any other field, you must first find out what has been done by others in the field of science or economics you want, study what they have succeeded and what they haven't, and then quietly, without pushing your own system. All other options will end sadly. On the other side of the deal there will always be an uncle who has been in the market for N+1 year, who has 45 senior sysadmins-programmers of distributed cluster ("cloud") trading system in his bank, and who has 15-20 PhD in Economics working as consultants.
Therefore, to expect that a simple model can cover a complex system like Forex is utopia. The more complex the system, the more complex its model should be. And all models are different.
But it is obvious that these big men track all macroeconomic forecasts, and prepare positions on different variants of published data. By the way, it was visible today at 14:00 Moscow time when the Bank of England data was published.
I only believe in something that can be tested. Preferably by machine. A picture is deceptive. And what the market has or has not considered gives little away. Sometimes there is no logic either. Big money is not always in the market.
If your understanding of what is going on - what seems right to you - helps you, then go ahead!
Sometimes, we fail to see the obvious, or refuse to accept/believe new ideas, and in vain, in order to improve your results you need to be willing to think differently, remove old beliefs, and get rid of old useless habits.I did not say that you should focus on what the market has or has not considered, I believe that you should not pay attention to this fact at all.
I will say regardless of who stated above.
Those who think that a complete idiot or an ignoramus who doesn't know mathematics or economics is on the other side of the deal are severely mistaken. This is especially evident in the radicals or physicists who come into the market. Especially in the forex market, where the noise component of the time series is no less than the trend (invisible).
Too much conceit, much less arrogance, is well treated... It is if one is prepared to make mistakes, which one learns from. And if one is not ready, the cure can be very painful.
In science, as in any other business, you must first find out what has been done by others in the field of science or economics that you want, study what they have succeeded and what they have not, and then quietly, without pushing your own system. All other options will end sadly. On the other side of the deal there will always be an uncle who has been in the market for N+1 year, who has 45 senior sysadmins-programmers of distributed cluster ("cloud") trading system in his bank, and who has 15-20 PhD in Economics working as consultants.
Therefore, to expect that a simple model can cover a complex system like Forex is utopia. The more complex the system, the more complex its model should be. And all models are different.
But it is obvious that these big men track all macroeconomic forecasts, and prepare positions on different variants of published data. By the way, it was visible today at 14:00 Moscow time when the Bank of England data was published.
If your understanding of what is going on - what seems right to you - helps you, then go ahead!
Sometimes, we fail to see the obvious, or refuse to accept/believe new ideas, and in vain, in order to improve your results you need to be willing to think differently, remove old beliefs, and get rid of old useless habits.I did not say that you should focus on what the market has or has not considered, I believe that you should not pay attention to this fact at all.
Everything you say has been passed and experienced for myself. Now my tasks are simpler. To find places where there is fish).
At the expense of 14.00. Markets are emotions. The statistics came out, who sees the stops, move the markets there. Probably that's why the reaction is different every time. Depending on where the accumulation of orders is.
We know from high school physics that the stability of a system is inversely proportional to the number of degrees of freedom of that system.