Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 29
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Valentin Katasonov: The 20th Century: War, Power and Gold. The confrontation between the West and Russia in the 20th century.
Despite the seeming autonomy of states, the wars and crises of the 20th century were pre-planned and represent links in the chain of power grabbing over the world. The world's financial superpower stuns people, pits countries against each other, imposes a gold standard and crashes markets to establish its domination over mankind.
Fed hasn't changed the stakes
The Fed has not changed rates
Should we expect a rally against the US dollar?
Currency markets are hard to predict. Even the auction market is hard to predict. Unchanged rates seem to be good news for the market, but traders like to find reasons to get excited. "The Fed didn't raise rates, so the global slowdown will really slow down the US economy". Actually the Fed was right not to raise rates. The market has been following this meeting and expecting some action. Better to raise rates quietly, like in October, unexpectedly for no one. That's what the fed likes to do. Also, as I said before, waiting for action is more effective than action itself. Waiting for a rate hike will keep the price of gold, oil and other commodities under control, as well as the market itself. Will the dollar fall? Unlikely. Traders will be afraid of an unexpected rate hike.
Yes, ... but HOW PERIOD ???!!! In what period is it "difficult" ? That period is different for every trader. Trading is like that, it's different and individual. On a short period a bunch of people just play on the psychology of the market-crowd, fooled by parrots from the zombie TV.
Here's some clever thinking on the (mostly near-market) Smart Lab:
"American-style Pinocchio divorce.
Insiders knew in advance that the rate would not rise and bought stocks. Paid analysts were trumpeting the fact that rates would be raised. The patsies were scared and sold the stock, but the insiders were buying.
They didn't raise it. The market went up. Pinocchios started buying, putting up strong bids. The insiders gave them the shares, locking in a profit. Bingo!
After the insiders sold, the stock went down.
Pinocchios in shock for the second time in a day."
http://smart-lab.ru/blog/279162.php
Well on the long term (30-60 days), here, the EA conditionally "pose" short SP500 back on 5 August 2015 and "stands" there still. This is a visual tester.
SP500 is short. The level today = around 1980.
By the way, if you look at the volumes on the ES futures chart (SP500), you can clearly see the confirmation of this "Pinocchio scam" - Yesterday 17-Sep-2015 threw away half an hour's worth of volume comparable to the volume of the previous few days of stock dumping:
I opened short in the yen 15 seconds before the rate news came out - am I an insider too?
Explain your question to us.
Not "us", but "me".
"On the S&P500 futures chart, insiders knew ahead of time that there would be no rate hike, so they bought stocks. Paid analysts were trumpeting that they were going to raise rates. The patsies got scared and sold the stock, but the insiders..." (с).
I bought 15 seconds before the news came out, am I an "insider"?