Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 26
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I don't see how QE completed last October affects the market today. Speaking of a market bubble, let's look at the S&P500 P/E ratio (taken from here http://www.multpl.com/):
The PE is now 19.36. In the 2000 bubble, P/E was 45.
A good predictor of recessions is the Term Spread (long term bond yield - short term bond yield):
Every time the Term Spread falls below zero (Term Inversion), a recession is imminent. So far we have not seen this (blue line).
About the causes of market movement. The market in the short term timeframes is moved by the nervousness of its players. First fear of a rate hike, then a slowdown in the Chinese economy, now they're worried about a rate hike again. Traders can't decide whether to be afraid of an acceleration of economic growth in the U.S. and a corresponding rate hike, or to be afraid of a Chinese economic slowdown and its slowing effect on the U.S. economy. Traders who know the economy and how it affects the market are almost nonexistent. In the 90s, the internet made market trading accessible to everyone. Everybody started trading. They either have no time to study the economy, or they are not educated enough. But it is easy to use technical indicators and trade by them: MACD when it goes down - sell, when it goes up - buy. Such homegrown traders create volatility in the market. However, for those who understand the economics this volatility leads to profit.
Market manipulation by states and the masses is not denied. But since I am not invited to their secret meetings, I have to use "false" economic indicators:)
Here is a page calculating the probability of recession based on the rate spread published by the New York Fed: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf
Market manipulation by states and the masses is not denied. But since I am not invited to their secret meetings, I have to use "false" economic indicators :)
Here is a page calculating the probability of recession based on the rate spread published by the New York Fed: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf
Freemasons spell it with one s.
If they are particularly evil reptilian Freemasons - with two s's.
Masons write with one "s".
Sorry for the mistake. I always got C's in Russian. And my English is not so good either. I only communicate with "my own" telepathically :)
By the way, why are there two S's in Russian and Russia, and only one in English? Is it possible that someone can distinguish two "s" by hearing?
Sorry for the mistake. I always got C's in Russian. And my English is not so good either. I only communicate with "my own" telepathically :)
By the way, why are there two "s's" in Russian and Russia and only one in English? Is it possible that someone can distinguish two "ss" by ear?
Do you think my Russian is that good?)
I wonder how a person thinks in what language if they speak a language other than their native one, which they have known since childhood.
Do you think my Russian is that good?)
I wonder how people think in what language if they speak a language other than their native language, which they have known since childhood.
I corrected my question about the words "Russian" and "English" at the top.
I think in Russian.
I corrected my question about the words "Russian" and "English" at the top.
I think in Russian.
Google says that historically it was formed to write Russia, Russian with two s's. And in general, if you think logically, from the word Russia, it is with one c.
Probably, and indeed someone wanted to make two letters, and so it became customary.
I just heard a story that a man lived abroad for a long time, and when he came back, he thought in English and answered in Russian).