Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 21
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...The SP500's future direction of travel is DOWN.
Temporarily, maybe another couple of days or a week at most. The S&P500 has not significantly corrected since 2012. A 10%-20% correction is not a bear market. Even in October 2014 the S&P500 fell worse than it is now and then recovered within 2-3 weeks and kept going up. At a time like this you have to buy. All economic indicators in the US show growth. Inflation is small. Oil is down below $40. Rates are zero and no increase is in sight for 2015.
A great opportunity to buy shares in good companies! When the market opened I was buying until the prices went up.
))))) uh-huh... So you've only just stocked up now???? What about the previous posts - all up, going to new heights etc?
I don't get it. Buying is good, i.e. I was betting on a rise in the market. Still expecting new highs by the end of September. I see no contradiction between my actions and my words.
Never mind that. It's just that there are nasty words like "drawdown", "margin call" etc.
I do not trade on margin. The drawdown, yes, does exist. If the market was moving monotonically in one direction there would be no drawdown. Again, I repeat the objective of my experiment:
This morning, for example, he bought many stocks down 10% of their constant size. On Mondays like this, the US market inertia moves down like the Asian markets, but often closes above the open.
Here is another version. They were buying the dollar in anticipation of a rate hike, China lowered the yuan, expectations were not met and they started selling the dollar.
Plus, as I said before, demand in China is decreasing, plus the fall of the yuan makes raw materials more expensive for them.
But, there is one catch. Usually the rally in the euro has coincided with the rally in commodity markets, and this is not the case now. Something to think about here....
My guess is that the markets are becoming increasingly uncertain and wandering, looking for an equilibrium point.
This morning, for example, he bought many stocks down 10% of their constant size. On such Mondays the US market inertia moves down like the Asian markets, but often closes above the open.
As far as investments are concerned, I recommend William O'Neill's books on the American market. In my opinion they are worth reading.
Also, every new rally usually involves a different stock, each time it is usually a different industry.
That's one of the most important conditions. So somehow you have to be able to figure out the "leading sector of the economy", on the current bullish trend.