Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 22
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Buy?... And that's on a daily trend DOWN? And with a quarterly calculation? Bold ;)
Index picture --- Monday close 2015.08.24. time 22.59
Buying?... And that's on a daily trend DOWN? And with a quarterly calculation? Bold ;)
Once again. I am not interested in daily trends. Additions and casts to the portfolio are made purely mechanically, with a 10% deviation in share price. The previous Asian crisis dropped the S&P by 20% in September 1998 (from 1200 to 940). The market recovered within two months and topped out at 1540 in March 2000. If you draw a parallel, today's bull market needs to drop to 1700 for a 20% correction, recover by the end of the year, and go to the top for another two years.
Completely unfounded "parallels".
Parallels like that are like this: it's like a pitchfork in the water.
In fact we have a downward trend on Monthly, Weekly, Daily:
No "parallel" will tell us how long the decline will last and what the bottom of the decline will be.
In fact we have a downward trend on the TF Monthly, Weekly, Daily:
How long the decline will last and what the bottom of the decline will be, no so called "parallel" will tell.
Let's mark the levels for clarity :
2015.08.26. 22:59:58
No one will say exactly where the fall will stop, although everyone can make their own assumptions ;)
Where this decline will stop, no one will say for sure, although everyone can make their own assumptions ;)
Let's keep it in mind : no one knows for sure, but one can speculate ;)
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SP500 2015.09.02. 22:59:58
My guess is that the current target area for the SP500 index movement is in the area indicated on the chart -- 1400 - 1500. The time of movement to it is three-four months.
By the logic of development, this area is intermediate, and the further movement downwards is probable, but it is too early to speak about its distant targets.
And to assess the potential it is useful to look at the movement pattern from afar, covering the cycles available for review :
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;) And here is the first usefulness of such contemplation (for me at least): it lacks the description of the cycles - here is the task: the construction of the model of cycles.
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