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AceTraderFx Apr 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
29 Apr 2014 06:50GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6818... BoE Governor Mark Carney says 'recovery broadening; BoE officials prudently optimistic on outlook; it's important we see longer term growth; consistent growth requires substantial wage rises; early signs are that recovery is sustainable; BoE interest rate rises will be gradual, limited.'
29 Apr 2014 02:49GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6814.. Cable moves narrowly in subdued Asian trading as Asian traders are on the sideline after seeing the pound pulling back rather sharply fm a fresh 4-1/2 year peak of 1.6858 to 1.6801 in NY session Mon. As mentioned in y'day's update, short-term specs bot sterling broadly at European open on news of a mega M&A deal, however, as many had pointed out earlier, market is long on cable, longs quickly took profit when no strg follow-through buying materialised n the release of upbeat U.S. pending sales triggered further long liquidation in NY.
Expect cable to trade abv 1.6801 until European open n market may well test the upside ahead of the release of the blockbuster advanced U.K. Q1 GDP, street forecast is calling for an annual growth of 3.2% vs prev. reading of 2.7%. Even if the data comes in as per expectation, as cable is now a crowded trade, more profit-taking offers shud limit the pound's upside today n downside risk seems to weigh on cable more. For now, bids are noted at 1.6805/00 n more below with fairly large stops touted below 1.6760. On the upside, initial offers are reported at 1.6840/50 n more abv with a mixture of stops n offers at 1.6860/65.
AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 28 Apr 2014 23:34GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
102.39
55 HR EMA
102.33
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
60
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
103.00 - Apr 7 low, now res
102.73 - Last Tue's high
102.63 - Y'day's high
Support
102.23 - Y'day's NY low
101.96 - Last Fri's low
101.50 - Apr 15 low
. USD/JPY - 102.51... Despite retreating to a 1-week low of 101.96 last Fri due to buying of yen on risk aversion, dlr ratcheted higher in Asia on Mon n intra-day upmove gathered pace on unwinding of previous long-yen positions, the pair climbed back to 102.63 in NY morning after upbeat U.S. pending home sales.
. Looking at the daily picture, although dlr's erratic fall fm last week's
high of 102.73 to 101.96 signals early upmove fm Apr's low at 101.32 has formed a temporary top there, Mon's stronger-than-expected cross-inspired rebound suggests pullback has ended there n re-test of 102.73 is likely, abv wud extend aforesaid rise fm 101.32 to correct dlr's decline fm Apr's 2-1/2 month peak at 104.13 twd 'dynamic' res at 103.06 (61.8% r), however, reckon pivotal res at 103.77 (Mar) wud remain intact ahead of release of the key U.S.jobs data this Fri. On the downside, below 101.96 sup wud shift to the downside for subsequent weakness to 101.50/60.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we're turning long on dlr on dips in
anticipation of upmove to 103.00 but as hourly oscillators' readings wud be in o/bot territory on next rise, 103.30/31 shud cap upside.
AceTraderFx Apr 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Apr 2014 01:58GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3809 ... The single currency remains under pressure in Asia today after yesterday's sell off from 1.3879 to 1.3806 due to the release of 'soft' Germany's inflation data. Selling interest is seen at 1.3820-30 n more at 1.3840-50. On the downside, some stops are reported below 1.3800, 1.3790 n 1.3785.
Further sideways trading is expected until European open as market players are awaiting the release of German retail sales data at 06:00GMT. Germany and euro zone will release its unemployment rate at 07:00GMT n estimated CPI at 09:00GMT respectively.
30 Apr 2014 01:44GMT
USD/JPY - 102.50 ... Despite initial firmness to 102.66 at Tokyo open on improved risk appetite due to the rise in Nikkei, following the rally in global stock markets on Tuesday. Selling interest below yesterday's high at 102.79 capped dlr's upside. The pair retreated to 102.48 in Asian morning, however, trading is relatively thin as investors are waiting for the BOJ rate decision, to be released at around 3:00-3:30GMT.
Some market players are expecting the BOJ to deliver further "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing" (QQE) on Wednesday, in the form of a further 10 trillion yen increase in the monetary base, biased towards riskier assets.
Besides, BOJ Governor Kuroda is due to hold a post-meeting news conference at 06:30GMT.
Orders book shows some offers are tipped at 102.70 with stops seen above 102.80 but mixture of offers n stops is tipped at 102.95/00. On the downside, some bids are located at 102.30/35 n 102.05/10 with stops seen below 102.00 n 101.90
AceTraderFx Apr 30: Daily Outlook on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - 1.6813
30 Apr 2014 07:09GMT
Despite cable's brief bounce from 1.6792 (Europe)
to 1.6848 (NY) yesterday, as early retreat from Mon's
4-1/2 yr peak at 1.6858 suggests a temp. top has
possibly been made, choppy consolidation with down
side bias would be seen for retrace. towards 1.6762 sup.
Reinstate short on recovery, stop initially above
previous daily 1.6879 res (Nov 2009), break, 1.6900.
AceTraderFx Apr 30: Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 30 Apr 2014 00:40GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.6823
55 HR EMA
1.6817
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
51
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6945 - 50% proj. of 1.5854-1.6823 fm 1.6460
1.6879 - 2009 high (Nov)
1.6858 - Mon's fresh 4-1/2 year high
Support
1.6792 - Y'day's NY low
1.6762 - Last Wed's low
1.6713 - Apr 15 NY low
. GBP/USD - 1.6825... Cable went through a 'roller-coaster' session on Tue. Although price rose briefly to 1.6847 in early Europe n then tumbled to 1.6792 after release of disappointing U.K. Q1 GDP data, price rebounded on active buying of pound vs euro n rose 1-tick higher to 1.6848 in NY morning b4 easing.
. Although cable's rebound fm y'day's low at 1.6792 to 1.6848 suggests 1st leg of correction fm Mon's fresh 4-1/2 year peak at 1.6858 has ended there n another day of choppy sideways swings is envisaged, as long as 1.6858 top holds, downside bias remains for another attempt twd chart obj. at 1.6762 (last week's low), however, a daily close below there is needed to confirm a temporary top has been formed n yield stronger retracement to 1.6710/20. On the upside, abv said high anytime wud confirm MT uptrend fm 1.4228 (2010 bottom) has once again resumed n further gain to 1.6879 (Nov 2009 high) wud follow, however, prominent 'bearish divergences' on hourly oscillators on next upmove shud cap price below 1.6945 (50% projection of 1.5854-1.6823 measured fm 1.6460, n bring correction.
. In view of abv analysis, we're selling cable again on recovery n only abv
minor daily res at 1.6879 wud risk marginal gain to 1.6900/05 b4 retrace. occur.
AceTraderFx May 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, AUS/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 May 2014 01:54GMT
USD/JPY - 102.19 ... Despite yesterday's sharp fall from 102.67 to 102.03 in NY, dlr staged a brief bounce to 102.30 in Tokyo morning due to the rise in Nikkei following the strength in global equities, however, renewed selling there capped dlr's upside n price retreated as Nikkei-225 index pared most of early gains. Trading is expected to be thin in Asia as Chinese players are absent today due to Labour Day holiday.
Some offers are tipped at 102.30-40 n more at 102.60/65 with stops only seen above 102.80. On the downside, mixture of bids n stops at 102.00 is in focus. More stops are located below 101.90 n 101.80.
01 May 2014 01:32GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9297... Australian dollar maintained a firm undertone after the release of higher-than-expected Australia's import and export prices which rose by 3.2% n 3.6% in Q1 versus economists' forecast of 1.8% n 1.5% respectively.
AceTraderFx May 2: Daily Outlook on Major USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 102.28
Update Time: 02 May 2014 00:13 GMT
The greenback traded narrowly on Thursday after Wednesday's strong retreat from 102.67 to 102.03, however, as aforesaid sell off suggests recent up move from April's low at 101.32 has formed a temporary top at 102.79 on Tuesday 102.79, choppy consolidation with downside bias would be seen and weakness towards 101.96 support (last Friday's low) is likely, below would bring stronger pullback to 101.60/70, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, April's low at 101.32 should hold from here and yield further choppy gyrations.
On the upside, only a breach of 102.67 would turn outlook bullish for another corrective rise to 103.06, being 61.8% retracement of 104.13-101.32, however, reckon upside would be limited to 103.30/40.
AceTraderFx May 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
02 May 2014 06:45GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6887.. Another piece of breaking news which may 'trigger' another bout of st speculative buying of cable.
U.K. drug maker AstraZeneca says board will review Pfizer offer. A spokeswoman for the company said today AstraZeneca board will be reviewing a sweetened takeover offer fm Pfizer but the company has no further comment at this stage.
Sterling was the 'star currency' in y'day's holiday-thinned trading. Despite initial quiet start due to closure of many major centres for Labour Day holiday, the pound sprang to life at European open n jumped to a near 5-year peak of 1.6921 after U.K. Apr manufacturing PMI beat forecast, however, the bullish euphoria quickly faded when long liquidation emerged, knocking the pound to 1.6876 in NY morning.
Cable has moved narrowly with a soft bias as Asian traders are on the sideline ahead of a slew of eco. data in Europe. We have several eurozone manufacturing PMIs ahead of the release of U.K. Apr construction PMI at 08:30GMT (street forecast is calling for 62.5 vs prev. reading at 62.5) n not to mention the world's most important data, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data at 12:30GMT. Initial bids are noted at 1.6870-60 with some stops touted below 1.6850, on the upside, offers are reported at 1.6910/20 n more abv, suggesting near term range trading wud continue but buying cable on dips is till the preferred strategy after clocking up 6 consecutive days of winning streak on Thur.
AceTraderFx May2: Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 May 2014 23:53GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.8795
55 HR EMA
0.8802
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
43
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
0.8905 - Apr 04 low (now res)
0.8862 - Last Tue's high
0.8851 - Wed's high
Support
0.8771 - Mon's low
0.8743 - Apr 11 3-week low
0.8698 - Mar 13 (2014 low )
. USD/CHF - 0.8792 ... Despite extending decline fm Wed's 0.8851 high in thin European open y'day due to intra-day rise in the eur/usd, dlr touched sessions low of 0.8783 at NY open, broad-based recovery in the greenback lifted the pair to 0.8801 b4 moving narrowly in quiet NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, dlr's retreat fm 0.8851 suggests
'choppy' trading below last Tue's high at 0.8862 wud continue with downside bias but below Mon's 0.8771 low is needed to confirm early recovery fm Apr's 3-week trough at 0.8743 has ended there, then re-test of said sup wud follow, a break there wud indicate MT downtrend fm 2012 peak at 0.9972 has possibly resumed n extend weakness twd Mar's 2-year trough at 0.8698 next week. On the upside, only daily close abv 0.8862 wud signal the pullback fm Apr's high at 0.8953 has end ed at 0.8743 instead n turn outlook bullish for subsequent gain to 0.8880 (Apr 08 high) but res at 0.8953 (Apr's high) shud limit upside.
. Today, traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of release of the U.S. jobs data n selling on intra-day recovery is favoured. In case dlr rises on strg payrolls n penetrates 0.8862 res, risk is seen for gain twd 0.8905/10.
Acetraderfx May 5: Daily Outlook on AUD/USD
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.9262
05 May 2014 01:50GMT
Despite Fri's brief drop to 0.9204, subsequent
strong rebound due to dlr's broad-based weakness
suggest erratic decline from Apr's 4-1/2 month peak at
0.9461 has formed a temp. low there n gain to 0.9313/18
is envisaged, above, 0.9345/50.
Turn long long on dips with stop initially below
said sup, break would risk one more fall to 0.9155.