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AceTraderFx May 29: Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 29 May 2014 00:30GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
Rising fm o/s
55 HR EMA
29
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
1.6736
14 HR DMI
1.67
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent decline
Resistance
1.6816 - Y'day's high
1.6782 - Tue's low, now res
1.6732 - May 16 low, now res
Support
1.6697 - Y'day's 5-week low
1.6657 - Apr 15 low
1.6624 - 50% r of 1.6252-1.6997
. GBP/USD - 1.6717... Cable came under renewed selling in Asia at 1.6816 Wed n fell to 1.6761 at European open. Intra-day decline continued after data showed growth in U.K. retail slowed in May n price subsequently tumbled to a 6-week low of 1.6697 in NY morning b4 staging a minor rebound on short covering.
. Looking at the daily chart, y'day's breach of previous May's low at 1.6732 n daily close below there confirms a major top has been formed at May's near 5-year peak at 1.6997 (Reuters) n price is en route to 1.6560 in June, this is a 'minimum' 38.2% r of the intermediate MT rise fm 1.5854-1.6997. Having said that , as daily oscillators wud be o/sold territory on such a move, daily sup at 1.6460 (Mar 24 low in NZ) shud contain weakness. Therefore, trading cable fm short side is favoured, however, one shud look to take profit on next decline as the hourly oscillators wud display bullish convergences on next decline, suggesting sharp fall is unlikely to be seen n reckon 1.6624, this is the 'natural' 50% r of intermediate rise of 1.6252-1.6997, wud hold n yield rebound later.
. Today, expect weakness to 1.6555 n only abv 1.6782 wud indicate temporary low is made, risk stronger retracement twd 1.6813/16 b4 another fall next week.
AceTraderFx May 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 May 2014 01:55GMT
USD/JPY - 101.62
Early release of Japan's economic data showed that Japan's inflation accelerated in April to a 23-year high while industrial output and household spending fell after a sales-tax increase. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 3.2% y/y in April after a 1.3% increase in March.
A piece of news worth mentioning, Board member Sayuri Shirai said on Thursday the BOJ's unprecedented easing could last beyond next year and downplayed the bank's optimism that inflation would reach its target in fiscal 2015.
The greenback fell to 101.43 on Thursday due to cross buying in Japanese yen, however, short-covering lifted price to 101.79 in Australian morning b4 easing. Some bids are located at 101.55-50 with stops building up below 101.40 n 101.35. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 101.75/80 n 101.95/00.
Japan's MOF's Furusawa says that there are indications Japan's economy is entering a virtuous cycle; is no longer in deflationary situation.
Japan EconMin Amari says that April CPI shows the sales tax hike is being passed on effectively.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand building permits, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan jobless rate, overall household spending, National CPI, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, China leading index, Germany retail sales, Switzerland KOF leading indicator, Italy PPI, CPI, Canada GDP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan confidence.
AceTraderFx May 30: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 29 May 2014 23:47GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
101.70
55 HR EMA
101.76
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
53
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise
Resistance
102.36 - May 13 high
102.14 - Tue's high
101.89 - Hourly res
Support
101.43 - Y'day's low
101.10 - May 19 low
100.81 - Last Wed's fresh 3-1/2 month low
. USD/JPY - 101.74... The greenback weakened on Thur n ratcheted lower fm Australian high of 101.87 to 101.47 in European morning due to broad-based buying of yen. Price briefly fell to a fresh session low of 101.43 in NY morning after mixed U.S. economic data b4 staging a rebound to 101.79.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although y'day's breach of 101.64 sup signals recent upmove fm last Wed's fresh 3-1/2 month trough at 100.81 has formed a temporary top there, subsequent rebound signals pullback has possibly ended n as long as 101.43 sup holds, upside bias remains for aforesaid upmove to resume, abv 101.98 wud add credence to this view as hourly macd wud have cut abv zero line on such move, then dlr will be en route to next daily chart obj. at 102.36.(May 13 high), n later to 102.86 next week, this is the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of the entire fall fm 104.13 to 100.81, in early Jun, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, daily res at 103.02 (May's high) wud hold.
. In view of abv analysis, trading dlr fm long side is still the favoured strategy today n only a daily close below 101.30 wud abort present bullish scenario n risk stronger retreat to 101.00.
AceTraderFx Jun 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jun 2014 01:13GMT
USD/JPY - 102.39
BOJ governor Kuroda says various means are available if BOJ were to exit QQE; how to exit QQE, including what to do with BOJ's JGB buying, will depend on price, market developments at the time; don't see limits to options available to BOJ if it were to ease again to ensure achievement of 2% inflation target.
BOJ says key monetary official Amamiya to be reappointed as executive overseeing monetary policy department.
BOJ governor Kuroda says too early to debate specific plans on exiting BOJ's QQE policy; taking about specific exit strategy at too early a stage could create confusion in markets, as seen in overseas examples; it's true we will need to debate exit strategy when 2% inflation is achieved in stable manner, but too early to do so now.
BOJ's Kuroda says BOJ won't rule out adjusting policy if achievement of price target becomes difficult, but as of now Japan moving steadily toward meeting the target.
He then says "private consumption likely to remain firm as a trend despite impact of sales tax hike".
BOJ's Kuroda says Japan's output gap has narrowed to near zero but how demand performs remain important.
Earlier, Reuters news quoting source fm the Nikkei, Japan GPIF's asset allocation committee head says raising Japan stock weighting to 20% wouldn't be too high.
BoJ Governor Kuroda says "expect Japan consumer inflation to reach 2% around fiscal 2015"; "won't hesitate to adjuest policy if risks threaten achievement of 2% inflation target"; "hope Japan govt steadily proceeds with steps to boost Japan's growth potential".
AceTraderForex Jun 3: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 03 Jun 2014 00:14GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.3605
55 HR EMA
1.3612
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
38
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
1.3688 - May 22 high
1.3669 - Last Tue's high
1.3650 - Last Fri's high
Support
1.3586 - Last Thur's 3-1/2 month low
1.3563 - Feb 27 low
1.3518 - 38.2% r 1.2745-1.3995
. EUR/USD - 1.3594... Euro remained under pressure on Mon due to growing speculation ECB will loosen policy at its meeting Thur, price retreated fm 1.3643 (AUS) to 1.3594 in European morning n then further to 1.3588 in NY afternoon after Germany showed that the annual inflation slowed in May b4 recovering.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's decline fm 1.3643 to 1.3588 confirms the recovery fm last Thur's 3-1/2 month bottom at 1.3586 has ended earlier at 1.3650 last Fri n re-test of said sup is seen, break wud indicate MT uptrend fm 1.2042 (2012 low) has formed a top at May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 n as daily indicators are falling, price is en route to 1.3249 later this month, this is the 'minimum' 38.2% r of aforesaid entire rise fm 1.2042. However, euro shud hold well abv 1.3105 (Sep 13') n yield strg rebound later.
. Today, as long as 1.3650 holds, selling euro on recovery for resumption of decline to 1.3540/50 is favoured, however, as hourly oscillators' readings wud display 'bullish convergences' on next decline, reckon 1.3518 (38.2% r of intermediate rise of 1.2745-1.3995) shud remain intact. Only abv 1.3650wud indicate a temporary low is in place n risk retracement to 1.3384/88 b4 down.
AceTraderFx Jun 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, AUD/USD
04 Jun 2014 01:56GMT
USD/JPY - 102.61
Despite y'day's brief retreat to 102.27, the greenback ratcheted higher against the Japanese yen to 102.55 in NY n then 102.67 in Asian morning due to the selloff in U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. 10-year yield climbed to 2.6% yesterday, the highest level since May 14, due to that speculation that the Wed's release of U.S. ADP empolyment report will show the U.S. added more than 200,000 jobs for a third month.
Bids are now located at 102.40-20 n more at 102.05-00 with some stops seen below 102.00. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 102.75-85 with mixture of offers n stops seen at 103.00.
04 Jun 2014 01:34GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9285
The Australian dollar jumped to 0.9299 after the release of robust Australia's GDP data which came in at 1.1% q/q n 3.5% y/y versus economists' forecast of 0.9% q/q n 3.2% y/y respectively.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia GDP, Japan Markit service PMI, Itarly Markit/ADACI service PMI, France Markit service PMI, U.K. Halifax house prices, Markit/CIPS service PMI, euro zone service PMI, producer prices, GDP (revised), U.S. ADP national employment, trade balance, productivity (revised), labor costs, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, BoC rate decision.
AceTraderFx Jun 4: Daily Market Outlook on EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on EUR/USD - 1.3605
Update Time: 04 Jun 2014 06:53 GMT
The single currency's weakness after last Thursday's fall to a fresh 3-month low at 1.3586 suggests fall from May's 2-1/2 year high at 1.3995 remains in progress and further decline to 1.3560/70 would be seen after consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon support at 1.3518 should hold and bring a much-needed correction later.
On the upside, only above 1.3688 would indicate a temporary low has been made and shift risk to the upside for a stronger retracement towards 1.3734.
AceTraderFx Jun 4: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 04 Jun 2014 00:06GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.8969
55 HR EMA
0.8971
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
48
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading b4 up move resumes
Resistance
0.9082 - Feb 03 high
0.9038 - Feb 12 high
0.8996 - Mon's 3-month high
Support
0.8934 - Last Fri's low
0.8897 - May 21 low
0.8862 - Apr 22 high (now sup)
. USD/CHF - 0.8967... Although the dlr remained under pressure in Asia yesterday, price briefly rebounded to session high at 0.8994 in European morning. However, failure to penetrate Mon's high at 0.8996 triggered profit-taking n price fell sharply to session lows of 0.8951 in NY morning b4 recovering.
. Looking at the hourly chart, y'day's retreat after failure to penetrate Mon's 3-month high at 0.8996 suggests choppy trading below there wud continue with mild downside bias n below 0.8934 wud bring a stronger correction of rise from Mar's 2-year low at 0.8698, however, sup 0.8897 (May 21 low) shud hold n bring another rise twds 0.8996. Looking ahead, abv 0.8996 wud extend aforesaid up move twds 0.9018, being 1.236 times extension of 0.8698-0.8953 measured from 0.8703, having said that, as the hourly oscillators wud display prominent 'bearish divergences' on next rise, strg gain abv there is unlikely to be seen n reckon res 0.9038 wud cap upside n yield retreat later this week.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are buying dlr on intra-day retreat for gain to 0.9005 or wud sell if price rises to there 1st. Below 0.8897 wud confirm a temporary top is in place n risk stronger retracement to 0.8862.
AceTraderFx Jun 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Jun 2014 01:31GMT
USD/JPY - 102.57
Statement quoted from BOJ's Sato:
Japan economy likely to resume moderate recovery trend from summer onward;
Expected gradual recovery in exports likely to heighten likelihood of economy moving in line with BOJ's scenario;
There is risk eurozone may suffers from prolonged period of disinflation mainly in peripheral nations;
Must be mindful of chance U.S. inflation may stay lower than desirable levels in longer-term perspective;
Japan's economy somewhat undershooting, prices overshooting, initial projections;
Underlying overshooting of inflation due in part to rises in energy costs, weak yen, capacity constraints;
QE's intended transmission channels, such as portfolio rebalancing n rises in inflation expectations, not appearing as much as expected so far;
Monetary policy policy must be guided flexibly with eye not just on economy n prices, but on risks including financial imbalances;
BoJ's price target by no means a rigid, superficial framework that simply aims to achieve 2% temporarily;
Must avoid any misunderstanding that BoJ is solely pursuing pickup in prices without due attention to economy;
Natural for nominal interest rates to face upward pressure when unconventional monetary policy begins to exert intended effects;
BoJ's price target is a flexible framework in which some degree of latitude. both upside n downside, is accommodated;
BoJ policy, including eventual exit fm QE, shouldn't be swayed by consideration to fiscal sustainability.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia trade balance, export and import, China HSBC Service PMI, France ILO unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, U.K. Halifax house prices, euro zone retail sales, BoE rate decision, ECB's rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, Canada building permits, Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Jun 5: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 04 Jun 2014 23:38GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
102.65
55 HR EMA
102.50
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergecnes
13 HR RSI
55
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal rise
Resistance
103.58 - 1.618 times extn of 100.81-102.14 fm 101.43
103.02 - May 02 high
102.80 - Y'day's 1-month high
Support
102.27 - Tue's low
102.14 - Last Tue's high, now sup
101.79 - Prev. res, now sup
. USD/JPY - 102.68... Although dlr retreated fm Asian fresh 1-month peak at 102.80 on Wed n then dropped to 102.44 in NY morning due to downbeat U.S. ADP private payrolls report, price rebounded to 102.75 as release of upbeat U.S. Service ISM boosted demand for the greenback b4 moving sideways in NY session.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, dlr's rebound after meeting renewed buying at 102.44 suggests pullback fm y'day's high of 102.80 has ended there n upside bias remains for upmove fm May's 3-1/2 month low at 100.81 to retrace erratic fall fm 104.13 (Apr) to resume n extend to 103.02, being May's high, how ever, as prominent 'bearish diverging signals' wud appear on hourly indicators on such move, strg gain unlikely to be seen n reckon price shud falter well below 103.58, this is the 1.618 times extension of 100.81-102.14 measured fm 101.43, n risk has increased for a much-needed correction to occur later.
. In view of abv mildly bullish outlook, we are holding our daily long
position in anticipation of one more rise twd 103.15/20 today n only below 102.14 (prev. res, now sup) wud signal temporary top is made n risk a long-overdue retracement twd 101.79 b4 prospect of another rise next week.