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AceTraderFX Apr 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Apr 2014 05:28GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3854.. Whilst ECB President Draghi n fellow policymakers ratcheted up their rhetorics over the w/end on recent euro's strength, in a rare move for the usually soft-spoken Japan's FinMin Taro Aso, he told the IMF panel by drawing on Japan's own experience of a protracted period of deflation - directly warned the euro zone about the dangers of falling prices.
Aso said "Based on our experience, once a deflationary mindset takes hold, it is easy to fall into a vicious cycle, whereby people start to postpone consumption n investment, leading to further deflationary pressures". There are striking parallels between 1990s Japan n the euro zone's plight now: weak bank lending, fragile economic growth, a rising exchange rate, n the central bank's insistence that deflation is not on the horizon.
While Japan has been mired in deflation for most of the last 15 years, the price declines in the early years were so mild that the BoJ was slow to acknowledge deflation had set in. That is why Japanese policymakers warn against complacency even if, as Draghi points out, long-term inflation expectations in the euro area appear to remain "well-anchored."
German FinMin Schaeuble says 'Ukraine is the greatest geo-political risk facing the economy by a great margin; further euro strengthening could have negative effect on economy; says Draghi made a convincing case at IMF meeting that Europe's low inflation rates hold no deflation fears; no signs at all of deflation spiral in Europe.'
AceTraderFx Apr 14: Weekly Technical Outlook on Major – EUR/USD
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 14 Apr 2014 00:17GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.3875
55 HR EMA
1.3864
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
34
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.3948 - Mar 17 high
1.3906 - Last Fri's high
1.3864 - Last Fri's low, now res
Support
1.3838 - Today's low in NZ
1.3780 - Last Wed's low
1.3748 - Last Mon's high
. EUR/USD - 1.3850... Euro climbed strongly last week due to dlr's broad-based weakness, price rose for 5 consecutive days fm Mon's 1.3696 low to 1.3906 on Fri b4 retreating to 1.3864 on profit-taking. Euro gapped-down to 1.3838 in NZ Mon after w/end euro-bearish comments fm ECB President Draghi b4 stabilising.
. Looking at the bigger picture, last week's breach of pivotal res at
1.3877 (Mar 24 high) to 1.3906 confirms early correction fm Mar 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3967 has ended at 1.3672 (Apr 4 low) n as daily oscillators are currently rising, suggesting price is en route to re-test said 2014 top. A daily close abv 1.3967 wud confirm MT uptrend fm 1.2042 (Jul 2012) has resumed n further gain to 'psychological' res at 1.4000 wud follow, break wud extend gain twd 1.4052 (the 50% projection of MT intermediate rise fm 1.2745-1.3894 measured fm 1.3477) but reckon 1.4100 wud hold n yield retreat later this month.
. Today, as the retreat fm Fri's high of 1.3906 to 1.3838 (NZ) suggests
near term upmove fm 1.3672 has made a temporary top, selling on recovery for a retracement twd 1.3780 is cautiously favoured but 1.3761 (61.8% r) shud contain weakness n bring rebound later. Only abv 1.3906 wud extend gain twd 1.3948.
AceTraderFx Apr 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Apr 2014 01:30GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9400... Austrlia Central bank minutes states 'cash rate to remain steady for some time given economic outlook; A$ still high by historial standard, less supoortive of economy given latest rise; board saw further promising signs low rates working may through economy; strong pick up in home building ahead, no metion of any concerns at rising home prices; evidence consumer demand had strengthened, liaison suggestsed some easing in retail sales; exports growings strongly, board noted pick up i non-residential buidling approvals; falling mining investment, weak public demand to constrain growth for some time;
Japan EconMin Amari says 'Japan stocks falling on influence fo Ukarine situation, U.S. markets; regarding further BoJ easing, market is moving simply on its own expectations and disappointment; expects market will respond appropriately as gov't flshes out growth stratgegy.'
Japan FinMin Aso says 'Japan's position at G20 was the wage gains and improving sentiment show economy is in good shape.'
NZ FinMin Bill English says 'Treasury sees growth of 2% to 4% a year out to 2018.'
14 Apr 2014 23:30GMT
White House says 'Obama expressed "grave concern" in call to Putin over Russian government support for Pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine; Obama urged Putin to use his influence with armed, Pro-Russian groups to convince them to depart building in Ukraine they have seized; in call Obama told Putin Russia must withdraw troops from Ukraine's border to reduce tensions, noted Ukraine government had acted with "remarkable restraint; told Putin costs to Russia would increase if its actions in Ukraine persist.'
Obama administration offical says 'Obama's call with Putin came at Russians' request, was "frank and direct"; made clear to Putin that diplomatic path in Ukraine crisis was preferred path, but "Russia's actions' are neither consistent with or conducive to that.'
AceTraderFx April 15: Euro falls after weekend's dovish remarks by ECB president....
Market Review - 14/04/2014 22:48GMT
Euro falls after weekend's dovish remarks by ECB president Draghi and other policymakers
The single currency gaped lower at New Zealand open on Monday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Saturday that further appreciation in the currency would trigger more monetary stimulus. Euro later fell to an intra-day low at 1.3808 after U.S. retail sales rose in March by the most since September 2012.
Draghi said on April 12 that "I've always said that the exchange rate is not a policy target, but it’s important for price stability and growth. And now, what has happened over the last few months, it’s become more and more important for price stability." Draghi's statement was also echoed by other ECB officials in weekend meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington.
U.S. retail sales in March increased 1.1%, much stronger than economists' forecast of 0.9% rise, following a 0.7 percent gain in February. Sales excluding receipts at gas stations were the strongest in four years.
U.S. dollar bounced briefly to 101.71 against the Japanese yen in New Zealand morning on Monday and then ratcheted lower to 101.42 in Tokyo, however, short-covering above last Friday's low at 101.32 lifted the pair and price rebounded to 102.02 on dollar's broad-based strength due to the release of robust U.S. retail sales data before retreating in late New York as U.S. equities pared some of early gains.
The British pound also opened lower to 1.6709 in New Zealand morning on Monday in tandem with euro. Cable weakened further to 1.6697 after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data before staging a brief bounce to around 1.6743.
In other news, German FinMin Schaeuble said 'Ukraine is the greatest geo-political risk facing the economy by a great margin; further euro strengthening could have negative effect on economy; Draghi made a convincing case at IMF meeting that Europe's low inflation rates hold no deflation fears; no signs at all of deflation spiral in Europe.' ECB's Noyer said 'euro appreciation is a drag on ECB's price stability objective; ECB can buy all sorts of securities if it wants to embark on QE, including both private and sovereign.'
After Monday's choppy moves, investors are waiting for the speeches from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Fed's Chair Yellen respectively and also the release of China's gross domestic product data on Wednesday. China's GDP is expected to come in at 7.3% last quarter from a year earlier, the least since 2009.
Tuesdaywill see the release of Australia April minutes, U.K. BRC sales like for like, CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS house price, Germany Zew current situation, survey expectation, EU Zew survey expectation, trade balance, U.S. Empire manufacturing, CPI, Redbook retail sales, Net long term TIC, Total Net TIC, NAHB housing market index and Canada existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic – USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2527
15 Apr 2014 06:40GMT
USD's rise from last Wed's 4-month trough at 1.2451
to 1.2546 today signals long-awaited correction has
taken place and further gain to 1.2565/70 is likely.
Turn long on dips and exit and up move as 1.2583 should
cap upside. Below 1.2485 indicates top, 1.2465/70.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2515
OBJECTIVE : 1.2565
STOP-LOSS : 1.2490
RES : 1.2546/1.2568/1.2583
SUP : 1.2506/1.2465/1.2451
AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 15 Apr 2014 00:09GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8790
55 HR EMA
0.8785
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
63
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Initial recovery b4 retreat
Resistance
0.8899 - Mar 28 high
0.8846 - Last Wed's high
0.8806 - Y'day's high 0.8743 -
Support
Last Fri's 3-week low
0.8698 - Mar 13 low
0.8665 - 61.8% proj. of 0.9839-0.8891 fm 0.9251
. USD/CHF - 0.8804... The greenback rose to 0.8784 in NZ due to the gap-down open in euro n continued to strengthen in European session. Price climbed to session high of 0.8806 at NY open after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales. Dlr eased to 0.8782 at European closing b4 rebounding.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although Fri's rebound fm 0.8743
suggests MT downtrend fm 2012 peak at 0.9972 is not ready to resume yet n choppy trading abv Mar's fresh 2-year trough at 0.8698 wud continue, as dlr's sell off fm 0.8953 (Apr 6 high) to 0.8743 confirms the 1st leg of correction has ended, reckon 0.8846 wud limit upside n bring another fall. Below said 0.8743 low wud retain bearishness for a re-test of 0.8698 later this week, break wud confirm aforesaid decline has resumed n extend weakness to 0.8665 (61.8% projection of 0.9839-0.8891 measured fm 0.9251).
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are looking to sell dlr on intra-day
gain for subsequent strong retreat but 0.8743 shud hold. On the upside, abv
0.8846 wud indicate pullback fm 0.8953 has ended instead n turn outlook bullish for gain to 0.8899. However, res 0.8953 shud remain intact.
AceTraderFx April 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Apr 2014 01:28GMT
USD/JPY - 102.04 Japan FinMin Aso says 'can't Ok crop. tax cut without alternative revenue.'
Japan FinMin Aso says 'pull back from sales tax hike not as big as expected; downturn in consumption from pent-up demand ahead of sales tax hike smaller than expected from now.'
Fed's Kocherlakota says 'wage growth has been slow because of low demand; makes goods, services seem more expensive; calls to "audit the Fed" are really calls for politicians to have more say on monetary policy; I am an active "learner" on Bitcoin, very interesting to monitor and keep track of; interested in Bitcoin as a payment system, not as a currency that competes with dollar; it is not clear whether raising the minimum wage adds to, or reduces, unemployment.'
Fed's Kocherlakota says 'we need to do a better job of letting people know "the Fed has economy's back; we can afford to stay accommodative as the recovery proceeds; I expect interest rates to rise gradually as recovery continue; If we see inflation rise rapidly, will raises rates rapidly in response; I am fully committed to doing whatever it takes to keep inflation, because of tools at Feds' disposal; a lot of unemployment is cyclical, and can be affected by monetary policy.'
00:31GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9337- Australia Mar Westpac leading index rose to 0.0% from -0.1% in Feb.
BoJ's Kuroday says 'expects wider range of prices in Japan to rise ahead.'
'BoJ's QE steadily showing effect on Japan economy; Japan making steady progress toward BoJ's 2% price target; Japan's economy to weaken Q2 on effect of sales tax hike but resume growth above a potential from around summer; Tankan showed board range of Japan firms seen cautious of economic outlook but think firms' positive stance on business maintained.'
AceTraderFx Apr 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GPB/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GPB/USD
16 Apr 2014 02:21GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6721..We mentioned in y'day's update short-term specs sold the pound in Asia in anticipation of a soft U.K. inflation number, European traders did the same when they entered the market n when CPI came out at a 4-year low of 1.6% as per market consensus, cable staged a ferocious rebound fm 1.6657 (Reuters) to as high as 1.6731 on broad-based short-covering/profit-taking (depending where you had ended there trade !), pric later ratcheted higher to session high of 1.6749 b4 retreating.
The intra-day sideways move despite y'day's strg rebound suggests Asian players are respecting the Tue's high print as offers were reported at 1.6745/55 with stops abv there, however, more selling interest is noted at 1.6780/90. On the downside, some bids are reported at 1.6710-00 n more below, so range trading is expected ahead of another batch of U.K. jobs data.
Pay attention to U.K. jobless claims, employment change & the unemployment rate at 08:30GMT, the employment change data is probably the more important figure to watch, street forecast is looking for an increase of 90k vs previous reading of 105k, if the increase falls short of expectation, then expect (pun intended) another round of sterling bashing to come in.
AceTraderFx April 16: U.S. dollar ends mixed ahead of Wednesday's China GDP data
Market Review - 15/04/2014 22:42GMT
U.S. dollar ends mixed ahead of Wednesday's China GDP data
The Japanese yen rose initially versus most major peers in Asian session on Tuesday as Ukraine unleashed an offensive to dislodge militants from its eastern area and authorities in Kiev said Russian troops were sighted, fueling investor demand for safety.
However, Japan's currency pared gains versus the dollar after Nikkei said the government will downgrade its economic assessment in a report this week. U.S. dollar rebounded to an intra-day high of 101.99 in New York morning after the release of U.S. CPI data before falling to 101.50 due to the selloff in global stock markets.
Germany's DAX fell sharply by 1.7% or 165 points to close at 9174, however, U.S. Dow Jones index pared earlier more than 100 points decline and turned into positive territory in the afternoon.
The single currency dropped briefly below Monday's low at 1.3809 to 1.3790 in Europe after release of lower-than-expected Germany ZEW (The Centre for European Economic Research) economic expectations survey before rebounding to 1.3833 on short-covering partly due to the release of U.S. CPI. The ZEW Apr survey came in at 43.2 vs consensus of 45.0. The U.S. consumer price index m/m and y/y were higher than forecast at 0.2% and 1.5% versus expectations of 0.1% and 1.4% respectively in March. The so-called core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food components, also rose 0.2%. Another report on Tuesday showed confidence among homebuilders remained dour in April. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index rose only a point to 47. The pair later traded sideways in quiet U.S. session.
The British pound proved quite tricky to trade on Tuesday. Despite an initial spike down to 1.6657 (Reuters) after data showed U.K. inflation fell to its lowest level in 4-years, traders quickly bought sterling as most investors feared the data would be much worse. Cable swiftly pared its losses and rose to 1.6731 in European morning and then 1.6749 in New York before retreating.
Australian dollar fell slid versus U.S. currency after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's April meeting showed policy makers reiterated the most prudent course would probably be a period of steady interest rate together with China's money supply grew at the slowest pace on record.
In other news, Fed's Chair Janet Yellen said 'Fed considering additional measures to address remaining stability risks of wholesale funding market; some measures such as minimum margin requirements could apply on market-wide basis; new liquidity capital for banks do not fully address stability concerns of wholesale funding; standards do not focus on financial system as a whole, do not apply directly to shadow banks.'
Trading was relatively thin on Tuesday as investors are awaiting speeches from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Fed's Chair Yellen respectively and also the release of China's gross domestic product data on Wednesday. China's GDP is expected to come in at 7.3% last quarter from a year earlier, the least since 2009.
Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand CPI, Australia leading index, China business climate, entrepreneur confidence index, retail sales, Industrial production, GDP, Italy trade balance, current account, EU CPI, U.K. claimant court, weekly earning, unemployment rate, EU CPI, U.S. housing starts, building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization and Canada rate decision.
AceTraderFx April 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
17 Apr 2014 01:42GMT
USD/JPY - 102.04... Japan FinMin Aso says 'important Japan show resolve to restore gov't finance.'
BoJ's Kuroda says 'Japan's economy continues to recovery moderately; Japan's economy likely to continue recovering as a trend; Japan making steady progress in meeting BoJ's price target; BoJ will maintain its QE programme until needed to sustainably meet it price target; BoJ will adjust policy when needed, looking at upside, downside risks to economy, prices; Japan's financial system maintaining stability as a whole.'
Japan Pm Abe says 'we must make a success of Abenomics.'
China's Premier Li says 'China to keep, monetary policy stance unchanged; to make efforts to ensure meeting 2014 goals; China economic operation within reasonable range; growth around 7.5% within reasonable range; growth can be little higher or lower than 7.5% China not considering expanding deficit; China not considering strong stimulus now; reiterates development key to resolve all problems.'