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AceTraderFx April 3: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2625
03 Apr 2014 06:50GMT
USD's intra-day retreat from 1.2629 (NY) suggests
corrective rise from Mon's 3-month low at 1.2568 has
possibly ended and below 1.2586 confirms this view.
Hold short for resumption of decline to 1.2557
and only above 1.2640 risks retrace to 1.2661.
AceTraderFx April 4: Euro tumbles on Draghi's dovish comments
Market Review - 03/04/2014 23:06GMT
Euro tumbles on Draghi's dovish comments
The single currency tumbled against the greenback on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated the central bank is ready to use unconventional methods, if needed to battle low inflation in the region.
Mario Draghi, in his press conference, said 'recent information consistent with expectation of prolonged low inflation; to maintain accommodative monetary policy stance for as long as necessary; expects to keep rates at current or lower levels for an extended period of time; expectation based on subdued medium-term inflation outlook; inflation outlook based on weak economy, high degree of slack; we haven't finished with our non-conventional measures; all instruments fall within the mandate, including QE; we discussed the possibility of negative deposit rate; negative deposit rate received good deal of attention at today's discussion.'
Earlier in the day, euro traded sideways in Asia and showed muted reaction to ECB's decision to leave its rate unchanged at 0.25%. Despite a brief spike to session high at 1.3808 as Draghi began his press conference, the single currency tumbled to an intra-day low at 1.3698 in New York morning as the President said negative deposit rates were also considered.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback maintained a firm undertone throughout Asia and Europe on Thursday and rose to an intra-day high at 104.11 in New York morning. Later, price pared some of its gains and retreated to 103.82 before stabilizing.
The British pound rebounded to session high at 1.6661 in Asian morning before retreating to 1.6625. Later, cable re-tested 1.6661 in early European morning, however, price fell sharply 1.6581 after data showed a drop in UK services PMI. Cable later weakened to an intra-day low at 1.6570 in New York morning in tandem with euro before recovering.
U.K. Mar service PMI falls to 57.6 from 58.2 in Feb, weaker than the forecast of 58.2.
In other news, UK Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne said 'must stay vigilant on household debt levels even as household assets rising more quickly than debt; not seen evidence that help to buy plan has bumped up house prices; foreign exchange manipulation issues are potentially very, very serious.'
On the data front, U.S. jobless claims rose to 326K from previous revised figure of 310K. Eurozone Feb retail sales came in at 0.4% m/m and 0.8% y/y, better than the forecast of -0.5% and 0.7%, previous reading are revised to 1.0% and 0.8% respectively.
Data to be released on Friday:
Germany factory orders, Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI, U.S. hourly earning, private payroll, non-farm payroll and unemployment rate.
AceTraderFx Apr 4: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK- 1055.8
04 Apr 2014 05:22GMT
USD's breach of 1055.7 confirms fall from 1089.9
(Jan) has finally resumed and further weakness toward
1051.3 is seen before the prospect of strong rebound.
Would not advise to chase this move and stand aside
ahead of U.S. jobs data. Above 1059.5, 1062.5.
AceTraderFx April 4: Daily Technical Outlook on Major –GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 04 Apr 2014 00:18GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
1.6602
55 HR EMA
1.6617
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
43
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6684 - Mon's high
1.6665 - Wed's high
1.6619 - Tue's low
Support
1.6570 - Y'day's low
1.6555 - Last Thur's low
1.6509 - Last Wed's low
. GBP/USD - 1.6597... Despite trading just abv Tue's 1.6619 low y'day at Asian open, hawkish comments by BoE Governor Carney reported on BLP sent price higher to 1.6661 b4 easing to 1.6625. Cable re-tested 1.6661 in Europe but fell on downbeat U.K. services PMI. Selloff in eur/usd knocked cable to 1.6570 in NY.
. Looking at the broader picture, y'day's anticipated decline has retained
our daily bearish technical outlook on cable. Although the erratic rise fm last
Mon's 1.6460 low confirms the 1st leg of correction fm Feb's 4 year peak at
1.6823 has ended there, as price has faltered right at the indicated 'dynamic'
res at 1.6684 (being 61.8% r of 1.6823-1.6460), cable's selloff to 1.6570 Thur signals correction is over. A daily close below 1.6555 sup anytime wud encourage for a re-test of 1.6460 next week, break wud confirm downtrend fm 1.6823 has finally resumed n yield weakness twd 1.6321 (equality projection of 1.6823-1.6460 measured fm 1.6684, later this month.
. Today, as cable has traded well abv 1.6570 in NY afternoon, suggesting
consolidation wud continue in Asia n we may need to wait for U.S. payrolls data b4 prospect of another fall. Only abv 1.6619/21 risks 1.6661/65, break, 1.6684.
AceTraderFx April 7: Dollar falls broadly on long liquidation after U.S. jobs data...
Market Review - 05/04/2014 00:49GMT
Dollar falls broadly on long liquidation after U.S. jobs data missed forecast
The greenback fell against the majority of its peers on Friday as the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve would remain accommodative in its monetary policy.
U.S. NFP came in at 192,000, lower than forecast of 200,000 and a revised previous month's figure of 197,000. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback traded sideways in Asia and Europe, price briefly rose to an intra-day high at 104.13 immediately after the release of U.S. NFP. However, dollar swiftly fell to 103.56 as traders interpreted the data as not good enough and later dropped to session low at 103.20 in New York afternoon.
The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.3724 at Asian open and resumed its descent from Thursday to 1.3796 at European open. Price pared its losses and rose briefly to session high at 1.3732 at New York open after the release of U.S. jobs report, however, euro dropped sharply to an intra-day low at 1.3672 in New York morning before recovering.
The British pound spent a lackluster day on Friday and traded sideways in Asia and Europe. Despite edging lower to session low at 1.6554 ahead of U.S. jobs data, price rose to an intra-day high at 1.6606 in New York morning on dollar's weakness. Later, cable retreated to 1.6568 before recovering again in New York afternoon.
In other news, Fed's Fisher said 'at current rate of taper QE3 will terminate in October; forward guidance a complicated monetary tool; calendar-based commitment can be unsound; calendar-based commitments can lead to markekt instability by encouraging overshoot, as some markets appear to be at present; economic models largely guesswork, notes "rabid" focus on FOMC projection; clear to me U.S. has liquidity pool sufficiently deep and wide to finance job-creating capital expansion.'
On the data front, U.K. March Halifax house prices came in at -1.1% m/m n 8.7% 3m/y, vs the forecast of 0.6% n 9.4% respectively.
Data to be released next week :
Japan leading index, Germany industrial production, Swiss CPI, U.K. Lloyds employment changes, EU Sentix investor confidence onMonday.China financial market is closed due to public holiday.
Australia NAB business confidence, Japan current account, Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, France trade balance, U.K. industrial production, manufacturing production, Canada housing starts, building permitson Tuesday.
Australia consumer confidence, home loans, U.K. shop price index, trade balance, Germany export, import, trade balance wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan machine orders, machine tool orders, France industrial production, manufacturing production, CPI, HICP, Italy Industrial production, U.K. BoE rate decision, asset purchase target, Canada new house price index, U.S. jobless claims, import price index, monthly budget statementon Thursday.
Japan domestic CGPI, China PPI, CPI , Germany CPI, HICP, France current account, U.S. PPI, U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.
AceTraderFx April 7: Weekly Technical Outlook on Major –GBP/USD
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 07 Apr 2014 00:01GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
1.6582
55 HR EMA
1.6596
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
46
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal fall b4 rebound
Resistance
1.6684 - Last Mon's high
1.6665 - Last Wed's high
1.6606 - Last Fri's low
Support
1.6554 - Last Fri'slow
1.6509 - Mar 26 low
1.6460 - Mar 24
. GBP/USD - 1.6579.. Despite continuing its recent winning streak n rising for a 6th consecutive day to 1.6684 last Mon, the pound then ratcheted lower as weaker-than-expected U.K. PMIs triggered broad-based profit taking in sterling n price later weakened to 1.6554 after Fri's U.S. jobs data b4 staging a recovery.
. Although cable's erratic upmove fm Mar's low at 1.6460 confirms the 1st leg of correction fm Feb's 4 year peak at 1.6823 has ended there, as price has faltered right at the 'dynamic' res at 1.6684 (being 61.8% r of 1.6823-1.6460) last Mon, the selloff to 1.6554 Fri signals correction is over. A daily close below 1.6554 sup wud encourage for a re-test of 1.6460, break wud confirm early decline fm 1.6823 has resumed n yield weakness twd 1.6321 (equality projection of 1.6823-1.6460 measured fm 1.6684) later this month. On the upside, only abv 1.6684 wud abort present bearish scenario n may risk stronger gain twd 1.6787.
. Today, as Fri's 1-week low at 1.6554 was accompanied by 'bullish cover-
gences' on the hourly oscillators, range trading is in store initially. As long
as 1.6619/21 (previous sup) holds, further fall to 1.6538 (61.8% r of 1.6460-
1.6684) is still envisaged. Only abv said res may risk retracement to 1.6650/60.
AceTrader April 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
07 Apr 2014 07:50GMT
EUR/USD- 1.3715 ... Although cross-buying of euro lifted price fm Asian low at 1.3696 to 1.3720 in European morning, comments fm ECB's Nowotny capped intra-day gain there so far n the single currency eased to 1.3713.
Bids are noted at 1.3710-00 with mixture of bids n stops located around 1.3680, whilst offers are placed at 1.3730-40 n then 1.3750 with stops emerging just abv 1.3770.
ECB's Nowotny says 'ECB following inflation closely, sees no immediate need to act; further ECB ratecut not ruled out; all possible steps to be considered, no sequencing; economic improvement should reduce deflation issues peronal reference for unconventional measures is sterngthening abs market.'
AceTraderFx April 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Apr 2014 01:30GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9273.. Australia March business confidence fell to 4 from 7 in Feb.
Australia March business conditions rose to 1 from 0 in Feb.
Japan FinMin Aso says 'Japan won't be able to meet primary balance target without structural reforms, including on fiscal spending; Japan's fiscal consolidation isn't too quick compared with tat of U.S., Europe, in response to U.S. view Japan should avoid "too rapid" fiscal consolidation.'
British Chamber of Commerce Q1 survey shows strongest growth in services export sale and orders since survey stated in 1989; biggest improvement in manufactures' domestic sales and orders, and investment inventions, since survey began.
AceTraderFx April 8: Euro rebounds on short covering after Friday's U.S. payrolls....
Market Review - 07/04/2014 22:39GMT
Euro rebounds on short covering after Friday's U.S. payrolls missed estimate
The greenback weakened against majority of its peers on Monday as the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday continued to weigh on the dollar.
The single currency traded sideways in Asia and rebounded to 1.3721 in early European morning. Price continued to trade with a firm undertone and rose to an intra-day high at 1.3748 in New York morning after comments from ECB policymakers signaled deflation risks within the Eurozone are contained.
ECB's Yves Mersch said 'QE is a theoretical concept, there is a long way to go to any practical steps; there is conventional room to ease policy; do not see imminent risk of deflation but ready to prepare for it.'
ECB's Vitor Constancio said 'possible that we will see an uptick in inflation in April, need to see if base-line scenario for inflation outlook has changed; we are in a situation of great concern about inflation.'
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained under pressure in Asia and dropped to session low at 103.00 ahead of European open. Despite a rebound to 103.30 in European morning, renewed selling there knocked price lower to 103.00 again. However, dollar found support there and recovered to 103.27 in New York morning before stabilizing.
The British pound traded inside a narrow range in Asia and edged lower to session low at 1.6566 in early European morning. However, renewed buying lifted the pair and cable rose to an intra-day high at 1.6623 in New York morning.
On the data front, Euro zone April Sentix investor confidence came in at 14.1, better than the forecast of 13.9. German industrial production in Feb came in at 0.4% m/m n 4.8% y/y, better than the forecast of 0.3% n 4.7%.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia NAB business confidence, Japan current account, BoJ rate decision, Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, France trade balance, U.K. industrial production, manufacturing production, Canada housing starts and building permits.
AceTraderFx : Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
08 Apr 2014 02:45GMT
USD/JPY - 102.85.. BoJ will conclude its 2-day monetary policy meeting n then announce its decision on interest rates around Tokyo lunch session. The BoJ is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.00 to 0.10%.
Pay attention to BoJ Governor Kuroda's post-rate meeting press conference at 06:30GMT. However, looks like suggestion of increase for stimulus is unlikely as recent comments fm official suggests that the central bank is optimistic that Japan's economy will be able to reach its 2% inflation target.
Dlr came under renewed selling pressure at Tokyo opening as weakness in Nikkei triggered a new round of risk-off trades (N225 currently down 254 points at 14,808). Price fell below Mon's low at 103.00 after tripping stops below 103.00n hit an intra-day low of 102.74 b4 staging a recovery on short-covering ahead of BoJ rate announcement.
At the moment, offers fm various accounts are noted at 103.00-10 n then 103.30/40 with stops emerging abv 103.50, whilst bids are placed at 102.65/60 n around 102.50 with stops located below 102.20.
Japan's economic watchers survey results for March are due at 05:00GMT. In February, the reading for current conditions was 53.0, while the outlook was at 40.0.