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AceTraderFx Apr 8: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11290
08 Apr 2014 07:16GMT
Usd's retreat from 11320 signals recovery from 11270
has ended there and downside bias is seen for re-test
of 11255, break confirms fall from 12275 has resumed.
Hold short for 11200 1st and only above 11320 would
prolong choppy trading and risk 11340.
AceTraderFx April 9: Japanese yen rallies broadly as Bank of Japan refrains from...
Market Review- 08/04/2014 18:08GMT
Japanese yen rallies broadly as Bank of Japan refrains from adding to stimulus
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback retreated to 102.74 in Asian morning before staging a brief rebound to 103.06 after BoJ's decision to keep its rate unchanged at 0.1%. However, renewed selling quickly emerged there as the central bank refrained from additional easing and price dropped further after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda offered little indication that more stimulus was likely in the short term. Dollar eventually tumbled to an intra-day low at 101.55 in New York afternoon.
BoJ Governor Kuroda said 'positive cycle in works in economy driven by robust domestic demand; monetary policy must be flexible so not saying we will never take additional easing steps; what we're saying is that we see no need to ease now judging from current economy, near-term outlook; absolutiely not thinking of early reversal of QE as see no upside, downside risks materializing.'
The single currency gained against the greenback on Tuesday on dollar's broad-based weakness together with IMF's upgrade of the region's growth forecast.
Earlier in the day, euro traded sideways in Asia and found renewed buying at 1.3737 at European open and gained to 1.3774 in European morning due to the rally in gbp/usd. Price rose to an intra-day high at 1.3811 in New York morning as IMF upgraded the growth outlook of the region.
IMF sees Eurozone growth at 1.2% this year vs 1% forecasted in January.
The British pound traded in a narrow range in Asia before rallying to 1.6713 in early European morning after the release of better-than-expected UK industrial and manufacturing production data. Cable continued to trade with a firm undertone and rose to an intra-day high at 1.6755 in New York morning after IMF upgraded UK's growth forecast for the year.
U.K. Feb industrial production came in at 0.9% m/m n 2.7% y/y, stronger than the forecast of 0.3% n 2.2% respectively.
U.K. Feb manufacturing production came in at 1.0% m/m n 3.8% y/y, higher than the expectation of 0.3% n 3.1% respectively.
IMF hiked Britain's growth forecast to 2.9% this year from 2.4% previously.
In other news, Bundesbank said 'acknowledges IMF recommendations on monetary policy; notes ECB is monitoring inflation developments closely; Eurozone monetary policy already very accommodative; shud inflation stay low for too long, ECB has necessary instruments to act; however, the possible risks of a long-lasting low interest rate phase must be weighed; IMF/G20 meetings to address geopolitical uncertainties n their impact on global growth; IMF/G20 will also discuss normalization of U.S. monetary policy n impact on global economy; risks to world economy come fm geopolitical developments, finance conditions in some emerging economies.'
On the data front, Japan Mar Eco watchers survey came in at 57.9, better than the forecast of 53.3.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer confidence, home loans, U.K. shop price index, trade balance, Germany export, import, trade balance wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx April 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
09 Apr 2014 02:52GMT
EUR/USD- 1.3789
The single currency pares yesterday's gain in Asian morning after yesterday's rally to 1.3812 in NY due to broad-based weakness in the greenback as many investors were closing their bets ahead of Fed's March meeting minutes later today.
Bids from various accounts are placed at 1.3780-70 n then 1.3755/50 with stops emerging below 1.3730. On the upside, offers from profit-taking are seen around 1.3800 with cross-related selling interest noted at 1.3805/10 and then 1.3820.
Germany will release trade data for Feb at 06:00GMT with forecast of an increase of trade surplus to 17.5B from 15.0B in previous month. However, exports and imports are expected to be -0.5% m/m and 0.1% m/m vs previous readings of 2.2% and 4.1% respectively.
AceTraderFx April 9: Daily Technical Outlook on Major –USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Apr 2014 00:38GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
0.8448
55 HR EMA
0.8468
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
39
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Minor recovery b4 one more fall
Resistance
0.8953 - Last Fri's high
0.8905 - Last Fri's low
0.8880 - Y'day's high
Support
0.8826 - Y'day's low
0.8815 - Last Tue's low
0.8788 - Mar 24 low
. USD/CHF- 0.8843... The pair tracked intra-day moves in eur/usd closely y'day. Despite initial narrow trading in Asia, intra-day rally in euro due to broad-based usd's weakness together with selling in eur/chf cross at London open knocked price lower, dlr tanked fm 0.8880 (European high) to 0.8826 in NY.
. Let's look at the daily picture 1st, y'day's selloff to 0.8826, which is
exactly 50% r of the recent erratic rise fm Mar's fresh 2-year trough at 0.8698
to 0.8953 confirms the 1st leg of correction has ended n as price is currenly
trading below the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, suggesting downside bias remains for further weakness to the 'dynamic' 61.8% r objective at 0.8795, however, a daily close below daily sup at 0.8788 is needed to signal aforesaid correction fm 0.8698 has ended, then dlr wud ratchet lower twd 0.8698 later this month. On the upside, a move back abv 0.8905 anytime wud turn outlook bullish for re-test of 0.8953.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, selling dlr on recovery is the way to go
but profit shud be taken on decline as 0.8788 sup is expected to hold on 1st
testing n risk is seen for a rebound to take place later today or tomorrow.
AceTraderFx April 10: U.S. dollar falls broadly after perceived dovish FOMC minutes
Market Review - 09/04/2014 22:45GMT
U.S. dollar falls broadly after perceived dovish FOMC minutes
The single currency maintained a firm undertone on Wednesday and jumped to an intra-day high of 1.3866 on improved risk appetites after the release of perceived dovish FOMC minutes as U.S. stock market rallied.
Minutes of the U.S. central bank's March 18-19 policy-setting meeting, Janet Yellen's first as chair, did not reveal any discussion of keeping rates near zero for a "considerable time," as the Fed mentioned in a policy statement issued after the meeting.
Federal Reserve policymakers were unanimous in wanting to ditch the thresholds they had been using to telegraph a policy tightening, according to minutes of a meeting last month that shed little new light on what might prompt an interest-rate rise.
U.S. 3-year, 5-year, 7-year Treasuries yields touched fresh 3-week lows. U.S. interest rate futures, suggesting market players see less chance of Fed rate hike in first half year of 2013 after the release of March FOMC minutes.
U.S. dollar moved inside 101.70-102.16 range against the Japanese yen on Wednesday after Tuesday's cross-inspired selloff to 101.55. The pair rebounded briefly to 102.16 in European morning on short-covering and then retreated to 101.70 in New York session.
The British pound retreated briefly from Wednesday's high at 1.6755 to 1.6725 in Europe following the release of U.K. trade deficit which narrowed to -2919 from -3910 million pounds previously, however, renewed buying quickly emerged and cable jumped to as high as 1.6801 after the release of FOMC minutes.
In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said 'U.S. economy leading global economic recovery; U.S. economy has come a long way from a very bad place; housing values have returned in a fairly decent way; many parts of U.S. economy that cud improve; Europe's surplus nations need to boost demand; Europe needs to be alert to risk of low demand, deflation; Germany is obviously one of Europe's surplus nations.'
Thursdaywill see the release of New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan machine orders, machine tool orders, France industrial production, manufacturing production, CPI, HICP, Italy Industrial production, U.K. BoE rate decision, asset purchase target, Canada new house price index, U.S. jobless claims, import price index and monthly budget statement.
AceTraderFx April 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Apr 2014 23:53GMT
Japan Feb machine orders came in at -8.8% m/m and 10.8% y/y, vs the forecast of -2.6% and 17.5%.
Fed's Tarullo says 'monetary policy can help improve potential rate of growth of U.S. economy; reducing labor market slack can help boost demand and productivity, reduce income inequality; Fed is well-advised to proceed 'pragmatically' given uncertainty over labor market slack; Fed should not preemptively try to head off inflation based on potential increase in structural unemployment; given recent modest growth, a sudden upward spike in wages of inflation is "less likely"; monetary policy cannot be main tool to fight long-term economic challenges but it is not irrelevant.'
09 Apr 2014 23:01GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6795... U.K. Mar RICS house price balance came in at 57%, better than the forecast of 43%, previous reading is revised to 47%.
AceTraderFx Apr 11: U.S. dollar continues to weaken broadly on Thursday after Wed...
Market Review - 10/04/2014 22:44GMT
U.S. dollar continues to weaken broadly on Thursday after Wednesday's dovish FOMC minutes
U.S. dollar dropped to three-week lows of 101.33 and 0.8749 against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc respectively on Thursday after Wednesday's release of dovish minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting.
Despite staging a brief bounce to 102.14 in Asian morning on Thursday on short-covering, U.S. dollar weakened again in European session and fell briefly below Wednesday's low of 101.55 to 101.45 before trimming losses after the release of better-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims which fell to a seven-year low of 300,000, lower than the consensus forecast of 320,000. However, renewed selling interest quickly emerged at 101.97 due to renewed selloff in global stock markets. Dow Jones index dropped by more 200 points. U.S. dollar later dropped to a session low of 101.33.
Despite extending Wednesday's rally to 1.3871 in Asian morning on Thursday, following the release of dovish FOMC minutes, profit-taking below previous res at 1.3877 pressured price to 1.3836 in European morning before rebounding. The single currency later rose to an intra-day high of 1.3900 in New York due to renewed selling in U.S. stock markets.
The British pound extended Wednesday's rally to an intra-day high of 1.6821 in Asian morning on Thursday, however, profit-taking offers below Feb's 4-year peak of 1.6823 knocked price lower to 1.6754 b4 rebounding in New York in tandem with euro after the release of less-than-expected U.S. jobless claims. Bank of England kept its benchmark rate and QE total unchanged at 0.50% n 375 billion sterling respectively.
Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann reiterated on Thursday that if there is a prolonged period of low inflation, the ECB will consider unconventional instruments. Last week, ECB chief Mario Draghi flagged the chances of quantitative easing.
In other news, IMF said 'unwinding large central bank balance sheets will be complex, could risk large spillovers via market n exchange rate volatility; calls for more cooperation between central banks and financial regulators; major emerging markets see room for more cooperation on spillovers from monetary policy; advanced economies shud calibrate pace of austerity to support recovery; reform fatigue could push global economy into prolonged slump.'
Fridaywill see the release of Japan domestic CGPI, China PPI, CPI , Germany CPI, HICP, France current account, U.S. PPI and U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Apr 11: Daily Technical Outlook on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 10 Apr 2014 23:51GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
101.59
55 HR EMA
101.88
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
36
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
102.74 - Tue's Asian morning low
102.16 - Wed's high
101.97 - Y'day's NY morning high
Support
101.33 - Y'day's low
101.21 - Mar 14 low
100.76 - Feb 04 low
.USD/JPY - 101.38... Wed's dovish FOMC minutes had kept dlr under pressure on Thur n price retreated fm 102.14 at Asian open to 101.42 in European morning. Later, dlr recovered to 101.97 after solid U.S. jobless claims but only to fall to a fresh 3-wk low at 101.33 on risk aversion due to selloff in U.S. equities.
. As mentioned in previous update, dlr's decline fm last Fri's high at 104.13 (post-NFP peak) to as low as 101.55 on Tue n then 101.33 y'day signals 'choppy' trading below 2013 Dec's 5-year peak at 105.45 wud continue n as daily oscillators are falling, suggesting price is en route twd key sup at 100.76 (reaction low in Feb) where a break there wud indicate LT uptrend fm 2011 record bottom at 75.32 is still being retraced n further weakness to 99.60 wud be seen later this month, being a 'natural' 50% r of the intermediate MT rise fm 93.75-105.45. On the upside, only a daily close abv 103.00 wud suggest price remains confined inside recent 100.76-104.13 broad range n yields gain to 103.45/55.
. Today, as price is still trading below the 21-hr n 55-hr emas, selling dlr on recovery for further weakness to 101.00 is favoured n only a daily close abv 102.16 (Wed's high) wud indicate a temporary low is made, risk 102.50/60.
AceTraderFx Apr 11: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11440
11 Apr 2014 07:35GMT
USD's strong rebound from 11270 (Mon) suggests recent
decline from 12275 (Dec 13') has made a temporary low
there, above 11500 would confirm and yield 11550 later.
On the downside, only below 11330 would indicate
recovery is over, 11270 again. Stand aside.
AceTraderFX Apr 14: Dollar steadies on minor short covering ahead of 3-day ...
Market Review - 12/04/2014 00:57GMT
Dollar steadies on minor short covering ahead of 3-day IMF/World Bank spring meetings
The greenback pared intra-day losses versus its major peers as investors trimmed recent short dollar positions ahead of the 3-day IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington which began on Friday.
Although dollar briefly weakened to a fresh 3-week low of 101.32 at Tokyo open, bargain hunting by Japanese importers lifted the pair to 101.87 in Europe. Despite a brief retreat to 101.37, dollar maintained a steady undertone in NY session and last traded at 101.63 near Friday's close.
BOJ governor Kuroda said Japan only halfway through meeting BOJ's price target; told G20 Japan making steady progress toward achieving BOJ's price target with positive economic mechanism working; BOJ ready to adjust monetary policy as needed if achievement of its price target comes under threat.
Euro penetrated Thursday's high of 1.3900 and rose briefly to 1.3906 in European morning on Friday due to dollar's broad-based weakness, however, profit-taking pressured price to 1.3864 in New York morning before rebounding after ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann downplayed deflation concerns in eurozone.
Weidmann said 'the risk of broad deflation in the eurozone is very low; expects economy in eurozone to pick up n inflation rate to gradually increase; at the ECB we have made clear that we will react effectively to long-term low inflation; in the case of long-term low inflation, any unconventional monetary policy measures by the ECB would have to fulfill many conditions.'
The British pound weakened versus U.S. dollar after the release of lower-than-expected U.K. construction output, which came in at -2.8% and 2.8% versus forecasts of 2.1% and 5.7% respectively, together with the selloff in U.K. equities. FTSE-100 fell by 1.2% whilst Germany's DAX and France's CAC-40 closed down by 1.6% and 1.2% respectively. Cable declined from 1.6787 to 1.6717 on Friday before recovering.
Data to be released next week :
Italy HICP, EU industrial production, U.S. retail sales, business inventories on Monday.
Australia RBA's April minutes, U.K. BRC sales like for like, CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS house price, Germany Zew current situation, survey expectation, EU Zew survey expectation, trade balance, U.S. Empire manufacturing, CPI, Redbook retail sales, Net long term TIC, Total Net TIC, NAHB housing market index, Canada existing home saleson Tuesday.
New Zealand CPI, Australia leading index, China business climate, entrepreneur confidence index, retail sales, Industrial production, GDP, , Italy trade balance, current account, EU CPI, U.K. claimant court, weekly earning, unemployment rate, EU CPI, U.S. housing starts, building permits , industrial capacity utilization, Canada rate decision on Wednesday.
New Zealand consumer confidence, Australia Business confidence, Japan consumer confidence, Germany PPI, EU current account, Canada CPI, U.S. jobless claim, Philadelphia Fed Business outlook on Thursday.
No major economic data is released on Friday. New Zealand, Australia, U.K. Germany, Swiss France, U.S. and Canada financial markets are closed due to Easter Good Friday holiday.