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AceTraderFx March 24: Weekly Technical Outlook on Major – USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Mar 2014 00:15GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
102.26
55 HR EMA
102.20
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
45
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise
Resistance
103.77 - Mar's high (07)
103.10 - Mar 12 high
102.69 - Last Wed's high
Support
101.94 - Last Tue's high
101.69 - Last Wed's European morning high
101.21 - Mar 14 low
. USD/JPY- 102.20... Dlr remained under pressure initially last week n retreated fm 101.94 to 101.27 on Tue due to safe-haven buying of yen following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, however, price rallied to 102.69 Wed after Fed's tapering move n hawkish remarks fm Fed chief Yellen b4 dropping back to 102.01.
. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's nr term rise fm 101.21 (Mar 14 low)
to 102.69 signals the fall fm Mar's peak at 103.77 has ended there earlier n as daily technical indicators are turning up, suggesting further 'volatile' trading abv Feb's bottom at 100.76 wud be seen n with upside bias. Looking ahead, a daily close abv 103.10 (Mar 12 high) wud encourage for a re-test of 103.77 later this month, however, only a firm breach there wud indicate decline fm 105.45 (2013 5-year peak made in Dec) is still being retraced n bring another leg of correction fm 100.76 twd 104.22, bring the equality projection of 100.76-103.77 measured fm 102.21, n then twd 104.50/60.
. Today, as long as 102.01 (reaction low fm 102.69) holds, buying dlr on
dips in anticipation of a re-test of 102.69 is favoured, abv, 103.00/10. Only
below 101.94 (prev. res) wud abort this bullish scenario, risk 101.77, 101.49.
AceTraderFx March 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Mar 2014 06:59GMT
USD/JPY - 102.46... Although USD has retreated after early intra-day rebound from 102.11 (NZ) to 102.57 in Tokyo morning, renewed buying emerged at 102.37 n lifted price ahead of European open as investors shrugged off the worse-than-expected China HSBC flash PMI figures n continued to sell yen on improving risk appetite (N225 closed the day higher by 251 points).
Bids remains at 102.25/20 and around 102.05 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 101.85/80. On the upside, profit-taking offers are noted at 102.65/70 and then 102.80/85.
06:21GMT
USD/JPY - 102.43... BoJ's deputy governor Iwata BoJ's current QE already takes into account expected economic slump in April-June QTR due to April sales tax hike; base salary does'nt necessarily have to rise as long as overall wages, including bonuses and overtime pay, rise sustainably; Japan exports liely to pick up as overseas growth recovers; dollar /yen level below 80, for example allow Japan economy to acheive near full employment.'
AceTraderFx March 25: Euro jumps to 1.3877 after Chinese President Xi urges ....
Market Review - 24/03/2014 19:20GMT
Euro jumps to 1.3877 after Chinese President Xi urges a political resolution to the crisis in Ukraine
The single currency jumped to 1.3877 on short-covering after Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday that a political resolution to the crisis in Ukraine would serve the interests of all sides. Investors bought euro on bets that tension over Ukraine won't escalate into military action.
Xi added that the United States should "distinguish right from wrong" on the issue of China's territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas.
Earlier in the day, although the single currency opened slightly higher in New Zealand to 1.3804 and traded sideways in Asia, price briefly rose to session high at 1.3827 in early European morning due to the release of better-than-expected France manufacturing and services PMIs. However, euro swiftly pared its gains and retreated sharply to 1.3769 and then lower to an intra-day low at 1.3760 ahead of New York open, weighed down by the release of weaker-than-expected German PMIs. Later, price rallied to 1.3877 in thin New York session after comments from Chinese President Xi Jinping.
On the data front, France Mar manufacturing PMI came in at 51.4, better than the expectation of 49.7. France Mar service PMI came in at 51.6, much stronger than the forecast of 47.5. German Mar manufacturing PMI came in at 53.8, worse than the forecast of 54.5. German Mar service PMI came in at 54.0, weaker than the forecast of 55.5.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained well bid in New Zealand and Australia and rose to 102.57 in Asian morning, helped by the rally in Nikkei. Despite a brief pullback to 102.34, dollar rose to an intra-day high at 102.65 in early European morning. However, price pared its intra-day gains and retreated to 102.13 in New York session on broad-based buying of Japanese yen before recovering.
Although the British pound opened lower to 1.6460 in New Zealand on Monday, price recovered to 1.6497 ahead of Asian open and traded sideways till European session. Cable briefly edged higher to session high at 1.6511 in European morning before falling again to 1.6466. Price later rebounded strongly to 1.6536 in thin New York session after Chinese President Xi Jinping's a political resolution to the crisis in Ukraine.
In other news, BoJ's deputy Governor Iwata said 'among negative factors of deflation was effect of strengthening yen's values, which hurt Japan export; not saying yen should be high or low, just saying policy makers must act if strong yen persists enough to cause job losses; BoJ is not aiming for inflation far exceeding 2%, instead aiming for stable inflation around 2%; risk of deflation will emerge if inflation runs below 1% for long period of time, which is why BoJ has 2% price target; 2% price goal doesn't necessary have to be met strictly in yrs but setting time frame helps to show BOJ's commitment vs price target.'
Data to be released on Tuesday:
France business confidence, German IFO business climate, current assessment, expect, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS house price, BBA loans for house purchase, CBI reported sales, U.S. Redbook retail sales, house price index, S&P house price, consumer confidence New home sales.
AceTraderFx March 25: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1080.0
25 Mar 2014 05:35GMT
Despite usd's intra-day retreat to 1076.0, subse-
quent rebound suggests pullback fm 1083.0 (Fri) has
possibly ended there, above 1081 confirms, 1083.0
On the downside, below 1076.0 needed to yield
stronger retrace. to 1073.5 before recovery.
AceTraderFx March 26: Euro drops on dovish comments from ECB policymakers before...
Market Review - 25/03/2014 18:45GMT
Euro drops on dovish comments from ECB policymakers before rebounding on short-covering
The single currency weakened against the greenback on Tuesday after comments from ECB policymakers Weidmann, Makuch and Draghi that triggered broad-based selling of euro, however, price rebounded on short-covering above last Thur's 2-week low at 1.3749 together with renewed risk appetite.
Although the single currency traded sideways in Asia and briefly edged up to session high at 1.3848 in European morning, price met renewed selling there and fell to an intra-day low at 1.3749 in New York midday, weighed by comments made from ECB's Weidmann, Makuch and Draghi. Later, the pair rebounded strongly to 1.3845 on active short-covering due to the rise in U.S. stock markets.
ECB Governing Council member Jozef Makush said 'ECB has many possibilities, one of them is adding liquidity; there are higher deflation risks in Eurozone, that's why we are preparing additional non-standard measures to avoid deflation environment; number of members of ECB Governing Council are ready to take decisive steps if needed.'
ECB's Weidmann said 'QE programme is not out of the question, must avoid monetary financing; must tighten monetary policy shud risks to price stability emerge, this shud be dominated neither by fiscal nor financial stability concerns.'
ECB President Mario Draghi said 'stands ready to take additional monetary policy measures to maintain price stability; urges banks to deal with balance sheet problems before health check results.' However, Draghi said later that "the European Central bank does not see any signs that consumers are putting off spending in anticipation that prices will fall, which is a key symptom of deflation." He added the ECB was carefully monitoring exchange rate developments because of their importance for price stability and economic growth.
The British pound edged lower to session low at 1.6481 at European open, however, price strengthened in European morning after the release of UK inflation data and rose to an intra-day high at 1.6550 in New York midday due partly to cross-buying of sterling vs euro.
UK CPI m/n and y/y came in as expected at 0.5% n 1.7% respectively. RPI m/m and y/y came in slightly higher at 0.6% and 2.7% vs forecasts of 0.5% and 2.6% respectively.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite a brief rebound to 102.35 in Asia, price retreated to session low at 102.10 in early European morning. However, renewed buying there lifted the pair and dollar rose to an intra-day high at 102.49 in New York morning, helped by the release of better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence before falling sharply to 102.20.
U.S. consumer confidence came in better-than-expected at 82.3 vs forecast of 78.5.
In other news, Fed's Plosser said 'Fed has not changed its position; Yellen did not make a mistake with "six months comments".'
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, Italy retail sales, consumer confidence and U.S. durable goods.
AceTraderFx March 26: Dailly Technical Outlook on Major –USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Mar 2014 02:16GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
0.8830
55 HR EMA
0.8827
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
53
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
0.8930 - Feb 26 high
0.8895 - Mar 05 high
0.8880 - Y'day's high
Support
0.8788 - Mon's low
0.8769 - Last Tue's high, now sup
0.8729 - Last Wed's Aust. low
. USD/CHF - 0.8845... The greenback swung fm gains to losses in choppy trading
on Tuesday. Despite rising steadily in Europe n a brief break above last week's
high of 0.8869 to 0.8880 in NY due to weakness in eur/usd, intra-day rebound in
euro led to long liquidation in dlr n price retreated strongly to 0.8813.
. Despite dlr's aforesaid rise to a 2-week high of 0.8880, as this lvl was
accompanied by prominent 'bearish divergences' on the hourly oscillators, subse-
quent decline to 0.8813 suggests recent erratic upmove fm Mar's fresh 2-year
trough at 0.8698 has possibly made a temporary top there n 1-2 days of consolida
tion with downside bias is in store, breach of 0.8788 sup wud add credence to
this view, then further weakness to 0.8768 (61.8% r of 0.8698-0.8880) wud follow
, however, below 0.8733 (80.9% r) needed to signal correction is over n yield
re-test of 0.8698 later next week.
. In view of abv analysis, we're turning short on dlr on intra-day recovery
in anticipation of initial weakness twd 0.8788 with stop abv said Tue's high, as
break there wud risk marginal gain to 0.8890/95, however, loss of upward momen-
tum shud prevent strg gain today n daily res at 0.8930 shud remain intact.
AceTraderFx March 27: Dollar strengthens versus euro on upbeat durable goods data
Market Review - 26/03/2014 19:04GMT
Dollar strengthens versus euro on upbeat durable goods data
The greenback strengthened against the euro on Wednesday after upbeat U.S. durable goods data added to speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut back its stimulus measures.
U.S. durable goods came in better-than-expected at 2.2% versus forecast of 1.0%.
The single currency remained under pressure in Asia and weakened to 1.3790 in early European morning. Price edged lower to 1.3782 at New York open after the release of better-than-expected U.S. durable goods. Later, euro fell further to 1.3776 in New York afternoon before trading sideways.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback retreated from Asian high at 102.40 to 102.26 before rising to an intra-day high at 102.48 at New York open on dollar's strength. However, renewed selling there pressured the pair lower and price retreated to 101.87 in New York due to the decline in U.S. stock markets.
Although the British pound retreated to session low at 1.6509 at European open, renewed buying there lifted the pair and price rose to 1.6557 in early European morning. Later, cable rallied to an intra-day high at 1.6597 in late New York, helped by active cross-buying of sterling vs euro.
In other news, Japan EconMin Akira Amari said 'BoJ still has role to play but all 3 arrows of Abenomics must be deployed to achieve its price target; aiming for surprise effect is one way BoJ can maximize its policy impact; Japan not manipulating FX as yen has only fallen back to pre-Lehman crisis levels; gov't to scrutinize Oct, Nov 2014 data as well as Q3 GDP in deciding whether to proceed with sales tax rise to 10% in Oct 2015.'
On the data front, Italy Jan retail sales came in at 0.0% m/m n -0.9% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.1% n -1.6%. Germany Apr Gfk consumer confidence came in at 8.5, same as expectation.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand trade balance, exports, import, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, economic sentiment, U.K. retail sales, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, core PCE, initial jobless claims, pending home sales.
AceTraderFx March 27: Dailly Market Outlook on Major EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3785
Update Time: 27 Mar 2014 01:45 GMT
Euro's retreat from 1.3828 to 1.3776 yesterday suggests further choppy trading inside recent established range of 1.3749-1.3877 would continue but as rally in Tuesday's New York (from 1.3749 to 1.3845) indicates consolidation with mild upside bias remains, marginal gain above 1.3845/49 is still envisaged, however, only above 1.3877 would signals correction from March's 2-1/4 year peak at 1.3967 has possibly ended and extend towards 1.3924.
On the downside, only below 1.3749 would turn outlook bearish for stronger retracement of mid-term uptrend to 1.3707 and then to 1.3660/70.
AceTraderFx March 27: Dailly Technical Outlook on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 27 Mar 2014 00:39GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
102.14
55 HR EMA
102.22
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
O/sold
13 HR RSI
25
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
103.10 - Mar 12 high
102.69 - Last Wed's high
102.49 - Tue's high
Support
101.69 - Last Wed's European morning high
101.21 - Mar 14 low
100.76 - Feb 4 low
. USD/JPY - 101.83... Although dlr edged higher fm Asian low at 102.26 on
Wed n briefly rose to 102.48 in NY morning after robust U.S. durable goods data,
active cross buying in yen on risk aversion due to fall in U.S. equity markets
knocked price lower to 101.87 in late NY n then to 101.80 at Asian open today.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's retreat fm after meeting
renewed selling at 102.48 n then breach of 102.01 (last Fri's low) strongly
suggests the rise fm 101.21 (Mar 14 low) has ended at 102.69 (last Wed's peak
after hawkish comments fm Fed's chief Yellen) n as hourly oscillators are
currently falling, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias remains for
weakness to 101.49, being the 80.9% r of 101.21-102.69, firm break there wud
confirm this view n yield resumption of early fall fm Mar's peak at 103.77 to
re-test said sup n then twd Feb's bottom at 100.76 next week.
. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on recovery is favored n only a daily
close abv 102.65/69 wud 'prolong' choppy trading inside recent broad range
of 100.76-103.77 n bring further gain twd 103.10 (Mar 10 high) but price shud
falter well below said res n yield retreat.
AceTraderFx March 28: Euro weakens after the release of U.S. growth and jobs data
Market Review- 27/03/2014 18:46GMT
Euro weakens after the release of U.S. growth and jobs data
The single currency fell against the greenback on Thursday on cross-selling of euro versus sterling and on dollar's strength after the release of U.S. data.
Despite trading sideways in Asia, the single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.3796 and dropped to 1.3741 in European morning, weighed down by cross-selling of euro versus sterling. Later, price recovered to 1.3779 in New York morning before falling again to an intra-day low at 1.3728 in New York midday. Euro then moved sideways for rest of the session.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback spiked down to session low at 101.71 at Asian open, price rallied to 102.29 ahead of European open due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index. Dollar briefly retreated to 102.00 in European morning before rising to an intra-day high at 102.43 after the release of U.S. data. However, price pared intra-day gains and dropped to 101.99 on disappointing U.S. pending home sales report before recovering.
U.S. GDP annualized came in slightly below expectation at 2.6% vs forecast of 2.7%. Initial jobless claims fell to 311K fm prev. reading of 321K. In a separate report, U.S. pending home sales index dropped by 0.8% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% gain.
Although the British pound remained under pressure and dropped to session low at 1.6555 in early European morning, price rallied swiftly 1.6640 after the release of better-than-expected UK retail sales. Cabled traded with a firm undertone and edged higher to an intra-day high at 1.6648 in New York morning before easing.
U.K. retail sales came in at 1.7% m/m and 3.7% y/y, much better than forecasts of 0.5% and 2.5% respectively.
In other news, BoE releases statement from March MPC meeting, which stated 'risks from spikes in long-term interest rates and credit spreads at heart of FPC risk assessment; impact of tensions in Ukraine and China markets limited so far, but risk that markets not prepared for normal rates; notes increasing momentum in UK housing market, will be vigilant n take proportionate n graduated action if needed; UK banks will face extra stress test bases on house price fall n spike in interest rates as part of EU 2014 tests.'
Fed's William Dudley said while explicit policy coordination among the world's central banks is unfeasible, a more effective system should be developed to ensure they have access to foreign currency reserves in times of stress.
On the data front, France Consumer confidence comes in at 88, higher than forecast of 85.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan overall household spending, jobless rate, CPI, retail sales, France PPI, Italy PPI, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, GDP, Lloyds business Barometer, current account, EU economic confidence, consumer confidence, business climate, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, university of Michigan consumer confidence.