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AceTraderFx March 28: Dailly Technical Outlook on Major –GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 28 Mar 2014 00:10GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.6604
55 HR EMA
1.6578
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Tuning down
13 HR RSI
55
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise
Resistance
1.6719 - Mar 13 high
1.6667 - Mar 17 high
1.6647 - Y'day's high
Support
1.6555 - Y'day's low
1.6509 - Wed's low
1.6460 - Mon's low in NZ
. GBP/USD - 1.6611...Cable continued its recent winning streak Thur n rose
for a 4th day as 'upbeat' U.K. retails sales triggered broad-based buying of
sterling, price jumped fm session low of 1.6555 after the data n climbed to a
1-week high of 1.6647 in NY b4 retreating to 1.6500 in Aust. on profit taking.
. Although y'day's anticipated rally to 1.6647 confirms cable's 1st leg of
correction fm Feb's 4-year peak at 1.6823 has ended earlier at 1.6460 on Mon n
as long as y'day's low at 1.6555 holds, consolidation with mild upside bias
still remains for gain twd 'dynamic' obj. at 1.6684, this is 61.8% r of said dec
line fm 1.6823-1.6460, however, as hourly oscillators wud display 'bearish diver
ging signals' on sch move, reckon upside wud falter well below res at 1.6719 n
risk has increased for a strg retreat to occur later today or Mon. Looking ahead
, only a daily close abv 1.6719 wud retain bullish prospect of further headway
to 'pivotal res at 1.6787 next week.
. Today, we're holding a long position in anticipation of one more rise n
profit sud be taken on next upmove. On the downside, a daily close below 1.6555
anytime wud signal correction fm 1.6460 ha ended n yield weakness twd 1.6509.
AceTraderFx March 28: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic – USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11380
28 Mar 2014 07:30GMT
Despite USD's rebound from 11355 (Tue), subsequent
retreat from 11445 suggests choppy consolidation with
mild downside bias would be seen.
Only below 11355 signals recovery from 11255 is
over, 11300. Above 11450 aborts, yields 11500.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 11450/11550/11680
SUP : 11355/11300/11255
AceTraderFx March 31: U.S. dollar rallies versus Japanese yen on renewed risk...
Market Review- 28/03/2014 05:57GMT
U.S. dollar rallies versus Japanese yen on renewed risk appetite due to the rally in U.S. equities
The greenback rallied against the Japanese yen on Friday as the release of U.S. personal income and spending data together with the rise in U.S. equities boosted risk appetite.
U.S. personal income and personal spending, both came in as expected at 0.3%.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded sideways in Asia and rose to 102.38 in European morning. Dollar later rallied to 102.78 in New York morning on increased risk appetite after the release of U.S. data together with the rise in U.S. equities. The pair later climbed to an intra-day high at 102.98 before easing in late New York.
Although the single currency traded sideways in Asia and dropped briefly to session's near 4-week low at 1.3705 in European morning, euro pared intra-day losses and rebounded to intra-day high at 1.3774 in New York morning on improved risk appetite due to the rally in U.S. equities together with the release of German inflation data.
German CPI m/m and y/y came in at 0.3% and 1.0% vs forecasts of 0.4% and 1.1% respectively.
Although the British pound traded with a firm undertone in Asia, price edged lower to session low at 1.6599 in European morning, price pared intra-day losses and rose in tandem with euro to 1.6651 in New York morning.
In other news, ECB's Visco said 'signs of recovery in Italy encouraging but must be confirmed over next months and years, essential reforms continue.'
On the data front, EU economic sentiment and business climate rose to 102.4 and 0.39 from previous readings of 101.2 and 0.37 respectively.
Data to be released next week :
Australia HIA home sales, Japan manufacturing PMI, industrial production, construction orders, housing starts, U.K. hometrack housing survey, mortgage approvals, France GDP, Swiss KOF leading indicator, EU CPI, Italy HICP, Canada, GDP, average weekly earning, U.S. Chicago PMI on Monday.
Australia Rate decision, Japan Tanken large manufacturing index, Tanken non-manufacturing index, China manufacturing PMI, HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. manufacturing PMI,, U.S. Markit PMI, ISM manufacturing, construction spending on Tuesday.
Australia building approvals, U.K. PMI construction, EU PPI, U.S. ADP employment change, ISM New York, factory orders on Wednesday.
Australia retail sales, trade balance, China non-manufacturing PMI, HSBC service PMI, Italy service PMI, France service PMI, Germany service PMI, EU service PMI, retail sales, rate decision, U.K. service PMI, Canada trade balance, U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claim, ISM non-manufacturing index on Thursday.
Germany factory orders, Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivery PMI, U.S. non-farm payroll, private payroll, hourly earning, unemployment rate on Friday.
AceTraderFx March 31: Weekly Technical Outlook on Major –USD/CHF
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 30 Mar 2014 23:21GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
0.8869
55 HR EMA
0.8863
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
59
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with a neutral bias
Resistance
0.8981 - 61.8% r of 0.9156-0.8698
0.8930 - Feb 26 high
0.8899 - Last Fri's high
Support
0.8834 - last Wed's low
0.8813 - Last Tue's NY low
0.8788 - Last Mon's low
. USD/CHF- 0.8873...The greenback swung wildly in opposite direction to
eur/usd last week. Despite initial brief but sharp retreat to 0.8788on Mon,
renewed weakness in eur/usd helped price ratchet higher to a 4-week high of 0.8899
on Fri b4 coming off to 0.8850 in NY due to selling in eur/chf cross.
. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's erratic rise fm Mar's near 2-1/2
year trough at 0.8698 to as high as 0.8899 Fri signals MT downtrend fm 2012 peak
at 0.9972 (Jul) has formed a temporary low there n as daily technical indicators
are turning up, suggesting consolidation with upside bias remains for further
gain to next daily chart obj. at 0.8930, then 0.8981, this is the 'dynamic'
61.8% r of intermediate fall fm 0.9156 to 0.8698, however, abv there is needed
to retain bullish prospect of further headway twd next chart res at 0.9082 in
Apr/May. Having said that, as Fri's high was accompanied by prominent 'bearish
divergences' on the hourly oscillators' readings, suggesting initial consolida-
tion is in store this week b4 prospect of further gain to indicated targets.
. Today, expect sideways trading below 0.8899 with downside bias, as long
as 0.8813 sup holds, bullishness remains n only below 0.8788 risks 0.8737/42.
AceTraderFx March 31: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2609
31 Mar 2014 06:10GMT
Although USD rebound after a brief break of Feb's
1.2582 low to a 3-month trough at 1.2568 signals
temp. low is made, reckon 1.2625/35 would cap upside.
Sell on further recovery for 1.2655 but 1.2643
would hold. Only above 1.2660/61 may risk 1.2690/95.
AceTraderFx April 1: Dollar pares initial gains on dovish comments from Fed's...
Market Review- 31/03/2014 22:53GMT
Dollar pares initial gains on dovish comments from Fed's Chair Janet Yellen
The greenback pared its initial gains after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen created some uncertainty surrounding the central bank's plans to further cut its stimulus measures.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said 'extraordinary commitment to stimulus will be needed for some time, a view widely shared by fellow policymakers; economy still considerably short of Fed's goals; will take time to reach; considerable slack remains in economy, labor market; cuts to bond buying not a lessening of commitment, but reflection of some labor market progress; QE cuts show aid for the recovery need not grow as quickly; labor market slack has held down compensation; recovery still feels like a recession to many Americans.'
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback traded sideways in Asia, price rallied in European morning on cross-selling of jpy especially versus euro. Dollar eventually hit session high at 103.44 in New York morning, however, comments from Fed's Yellen triggered broad-based weakness in usd and the pair dropped to 102.90.
Despite trading sideways in Asia, the single currency fell briefly but sharply to session low at 1.3722 in European morning after the release of weaker-than-expected EU inflation data. However, euro swiftly pared its losses and rallied to an intra-day high at 1.3810 in New York morning before retreating to 1.3763.
Euro zone CPI in Mar came in at 0.5%, lower than the forecast of 0.6%.
The British pound also traded sideways in Asia and edged higher to 1.6656 in European morning before falling to session low at 1.6613 in New York morning. However, cable pared its losses and rose to an intra-day high at 1.6684 on cross-buying of sterling versus euro together with dollar's weakness.
In other news, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said 'BOJ easing aimed at ending 15 years of deflation; Japan long-term yields are stable and low; Japan economy continues moderate recovery; too early to discuss QE exit policy; discussing exit policy too soon could cause confusion; should discuss exit specifics only after reaching 2%; must consider state of economy, markets when exiting.'
On the data front, U.S. Chicago PMI comes in weaker-than-expected at 55.9 vs forecast of 59.0. U.K. Feb mortgage approvals came in at 70.3K, lower than the forecast of 75.3K, previous reading is revised to 76.8K.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia Rate decision, Japan Tankan large manufacturing index, Tankan non-manufacturing index, China manufacturing PMI, HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. manufacturing PMI,, U.S. Markit PMI, ISM manufacturing, construction spending.
AceTraderFx April 1: Dailly Technical Outlook on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Apr 2014 01:54GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
103.11
55 HR EMA
102.84
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
63
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 upmove resumes
Resistance
104.22 - Equality proj. of 100.76-103.77 fm 101.21
103.77 - Mar's high (07)
103.44 - Y'day's high
Support
102.90 - Y'day's NY low
102.69 - Mar 19 high, now sup
102.43 - Mar 27 high, now sup
. USD/JPY - 103.25... Although dlr penetrated abv last Fri's high of 102.98 shortly after European open y'day n rose to 103.44 in NY morning, dovish remarks fm Fed Chair Yellen triggered broad-based selling in greenback n knocked price down to 102.90 b4 staging a rebound to 103.27 in Australia this morning.
. Looking at the hourly chart, y'day's breach of 102.98 to 103.44 suggests a re-test of upper lvl of recent broad range of 100.76-103.77 wud be forthcoming soon but a daily close abv said res is needed to indicate an 'upside break' has occurred n bring further gain to 104.22, being the equality projection of 100.76-103.77 measured fm 101.21, however, as 'bearish diverging signals' have appear on hourly oscillators, sharp gain fm there is not likely n price shud falter below 104.55, this is 80.9% r of fall fm 105.45 to 100.76, n yield retreat later this week. Looking ahead, only abv 104.55 wud suggest correction fm 105.45 (2013 5-year peak in Dec) is over n bring further headway twd 105.45.
. Today, as long as sup at 102.69 (prev. res, now sup) holds, trading dlr
fm long side in anticipation for a re-test of 103.77 is favoured n only a daily
close below 102.69 indicates temporary top is made, risks weakness twd 101.99.
AceTraderFx April 2: Euro edges higher to 1.3815 on Tuesday
Market Review - 01/04/2014 23:42GMT
Euro edges higher to 1.3815 on Tuesday
The single currency gained against the greenback on Tuesday as Monday's comments from Yellen continued to weigh on the dollar and due to the release of better-than-expected German unemployment data.
Despite trading sideways in Asia, the single currency rose to 1.3802 in European morning after German unemployment came in better-than-expected. Price edged higher to an intra-day high at 1.3815 at New York open on continued weakness in dollar after Yellen's dovish comments on Monday. Later, euro pared some of its gains and retreated to 1.3790 in New York morning before stabilizing.
Germany Feb unemployment rate came in at 6.7%, better than the forecast of 6.8%.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded with a firm undertone in Asia and continued to strengthen throughout European session on yen's broad-based weakness as Japan's sales tax rose today. Dollar eventually hit an intra-day high at 103.71 in New York afternoon.
Although the British pound traded sideways in Asia and edged higher to session high at 1.6675 in early European morning, price came under selling pressure after data showed a drop in U.K. manufacturing PMI in March and fell to an intra-day low at 1.6619 at New York open. However, cable pared intra-day losses and recovered to 1.6653.
U.K. manufacturing PMI came in at 55.3, lower than the forecast of 56.7.
In other news, Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem said 'Greece has an ambition not to ask for another bailout, but it is too early to say if this will be possible; France is well aware of its commitments, was already given more time, new French Cabinet will be aware of its obligations.'
On the data front, Italy unemployment rate came in at 13.0%, weaker than the forecast of 12.9%, previous reading is revised to 12.9%. Germany Mar manufacturing PMI came in at 53.7, weaker than the forecast of 53.8. U.S. ISM manufacturing rose to 53.7 from 53.2 previously.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia building approvals, U.K. PMI construction, EU PPI, U.S. ADP employment change, ISM New York, factory orders.
AceTraderFx April 2: Dailly Technical Outlook on Major –EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 02 Apr 2014 01:33GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
1.3790
55 HR EMA
1.3781
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
53
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
One more rise b4 retreat
Resistance
1.3877 - Mar 24 high
1.3845 - Last Tue's NY high
1.3815 - Y'day's high
Support
1.3763 - Mon's NY low
1.3721 - Mon's low
1.3705 - Last Fri's 4-week low
. EUR/USD- 1.3797... Although euro moved narrowly in Asia on Tue after
retreating fm Mon's high of 1.3810 to 1.3763, renewed buying emerged shortly
after European open n release of better-than-expected German unemployment data
lifted price higher. Euro later briefly rose to 1.3815 in NY morning b4 easing.
. Looking at the hourly chart, y'day's breach of Mon's high of 1.3810 to
1.3815 signals decline fm Mar's 2-1/4 year peak at 1.3967 has indeed formed a
temporary low at last Fri's near 4-week trough at 1.3705 n further gain twd
1.3936/45, being 'natural' 50% r of 1.3967-1.3705 n last Tue's NY high respect-
ively , may be seen after consolidation, however, as 'bearish diverging signals'
have appeared on hourly oscillators, sharp gain is unlikely n reckon price wud
falter below pivotal res at 1.3877 (Mar 24 high) n yield strg retreat later
today or tom. Looking ahead, a daily close below 1.3763 sup wud indicate afore-
said correction is over n bring weakness to 1.3721 n then re-test of 1.3705.
. In view of abv analysis, selling euro on intra-day upmove is still recom-
mended n only a firm breach of 1.3877 res wud abort this bearish scenario n
shift risk to upside for subsequent gain twd 1.3948 (Mar 17 high).
AceTraderFx April 3: Euro weakens ahead of ECB rate decision
Market Review - 02/04/2014 23:06GMT
Euro weakens ahead of ECB rate decision
The single currency ended the day lower against the greenback due partly to an increase in U.S. ADP employment together with positions adjustment ahead of Thursday's ECB rate decision.
Although the single currency traded with a firm undertone in Asia and rose to session high at 1.3820 at European open, renewed selling interest capped euro's gain and price dropped to 1.3767 in New York morning on dollar's strength after data showed an increase in U.S. ADP employment change. The pair later dropped to an intra-day low at 1.3753 before recovering.
U.S. ADP employment rose to 191K from previously revised figure of 178K.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback resumed its recent ascent and rose to an intra-day high at 103.93 in Asian morning. However, profit-taking there knocked the pair lower and price retreated to session low at 103.58 at New York open before staging a recovery in New York afternoon.
The British pound traded sideways in Asia and rose to session high at 1.6665 in early European morning, however, renewed selling there pressured cable lower and price retreated to 1.6621 in New York morning.
In other news, IMF MD Christine Lagarde said 'sees emerging risk of low-inflation especially in Eurozone; Eurozone needs more monetary easing, including through unconventional measures; global growth was about 3% last year; global economic recovery is weak n too slow; sees risk of heightened market volatility due to taper of Fed's monetary easing; need cooperation among central banks, financial regulators to contain policy spillovers.'
On the data front, U.S. factory orders came in better-than-expected at 1.6% versus forecast of 1.2%. Euro zone Feb PPI came in -0.2% m/m and -1.7% y/y, lower than the forecast of 0.0% and -1.6% respectively.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia retail sales, trade balance, China non-manufacturing PMI, HSBC service PMI, Italy service PMI, France service PMI, Germany service PMI, EU service PMI, retail sales, rate decision, U.K. service PMI, Canada trade balance, U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claim, ISM non-manufacturing index.