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AceTraderFx Jun 6: Daily Market Outlook on EUR/USD
Daily Market Outlook on EUR/USD - 1.3659
Update Time: 06 Jun 2014 01:01GMT
Despite Thursday's sell off to a near 4-month trough of 1.3503 after ECB's bold stimulus measures, intra-day swift rally due to active short-covering and subsequent strong gain above 1.3650 res to 1.3670 confirms euro's decline from May's near 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has formed a temporary low there and several days of choppy consolidation with upside bias is envisaged.
As long as 1.3586 (previous sup) holds, further gain to 1.3690/00 is expected later today, however, near term overbought condition should cap euro's upside below res at 1.3734 today.
AceTraderFx Jun 6: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 06 Jun 2014 00:52GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.6789
55 HR EMA
1.6768
Trend Hourly Chart
Nr term up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
66
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.6883 - May 27 high
1.6845 - 38.2% r of 1.6997-1.6693
1.6825 - Y'day's high in NY
Support
1.6782 - Tue's high (now sup)
1.6758 - 50% r of 1.6693-1.6825
1.6723 - Y'day's low
. GBP/USD - 1.6809... Despite cable's brief jump to 1.6793 in European morning due partly to cross-buying in sterling, price fell after BoE kept its monetary policy unchanged. Cable then briefly dropped to 1.6723 but only to rally in tandem with euro to session high of 1.6825 in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day close abv Tue's high of 1.6782 signals cable's decline fm May's near 5-year peak at 1.6997 (Reuters) has indeed made a temporary low at last Thur's 5-week trough at 1.6693 n as long as sup at 1.6758 (50% r fm 1.6693) holds, gain to 1.6845 n then 1.6883 is likely, being the 'natural' 50% r of 1.6997-1.6693 n May's 27 high respectively, however, as hourly oscillators wud be in o/bot territory on such a move, upside wud falter below pivotal res at 1.6923 (May 21 high) n yield retreat next week.
. In view of abv analysis, buying cable on dips in anticipated of further gain to 1.6860/70 is favoured today but profit shud be taken on upmove. On the downside, only below 1.6723 wud suggest aforesaid correction fm 1.6693 is over n shift risk to the downside for re-test of 1.6693, however, this move is unlikely to be seen today.
AceTraderFx Jun 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Jun 2014 01:41GMT
USD/JPY - 102.54 ... Despite last Fri's brief but strong retreat to 102.12 after the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data, the greenback subsequently rebounded to 102.61 and then extended marginal gain to 102.65 in Asian morning today b4 retreating. Bids are now located at 102.45-40 and more buying interest is noted at 102.30-25 with stops only seen below 102.10. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 102.65 and 102.75-80 with stops are reported above 102.80 and 103.00.
On the data front, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) grew an annualized 6.7% in the first three months of the year, faster than economists' forecast of 5.6% n a preliminary 5.9%. Besides, Japan reported a narrower current account surplus, 187.4 billion yen versus economists' forecast of 322.5 billion yen.
Data to be released next week:
Japan GDP revised, consumer confidence index, economy watch, euro zone Sentix index, Canada house starts. Market in Germany, France and Switzerland will be closed on Monday.
Australia NAB business confidence, NAB business conditions, invest housing finance, housing finance finance, China PPI, CPI, unemployment rate, retail sales, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, GDP, U.K. industrial output, manufacturing output, U.S. wholesale inventories, wholesale sales on Tuesday.
Australia consumer sentiment, U.K. average earnings, claimant count unemployment change, ILO unemployment rate, U.S. Federal budget on Wednesday.
Japan machinery orders, U.K. RICS housing survey, Australia unemployment rate, employment, France CPI, current account, euro zone industrial production. U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, business inventories, Canada new housing price index, capacity utilization on Thursday.
Japan capacity utilization, industrial output, France non-farm payroll, China retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, euro zone employment, Canada manufacturing sales, U.S. University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jun 9: Weeky Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 08 Jun 2014 23:54GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.3643
55 HR EMA
1.3634
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
54
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.3734 - May 19 high
1.3691 - 38.2% r of 1.3995-1.3503
1.3677 - Last Fri's 2-week high
Support
1.3622 - Last Fri's low
1.3586 - May 29 low
1.3569 - 61.8% r of 1.3503-1.3677
.EUR/USD - 1.3647... The single currency remained under pressure initially last week due to mounting speculation of 'bold' stimulus measures fm the ECB. Although euro briefly tumbled to a near 4-month trough of 1.3503 after anticipated ECB's action, short-covering lifted price to 1.3670, then 1.3677 on Fri.
. Let's look at the daily picture 1st, although euro's aforesaid rally fm last Thur's 1.3503 low confirms the decline fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has finally formed a temporary low there n several days of choppy consolidation is expected this week, as long as 1.3586 (previous low n also good sup) holds, mild upside bias remains for price to stage a corrective rise to 1.3691, this is the 'minimum' 38.2% r of the entire fall fm 1.3995-1.3503, however, as hourly oscillators' readings wud display 'bearish divergences' on such a move, strg gain beyond there is not envisaged n reckon euro wud hold below below previous daily res at 1.3734 (May 19 high) n bring another decline later this week.
. Today, Fri's retreat fm 1.3677 signals 1st leg of correction fm 1.3503 has ended n as many European centres are closed for Whit Monday holiday, consolidation is in store, so trading euro on both sides of the market is favoured.
AceTraderFx Jun 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD, USD/JPY
10 Jun 2014 01:48GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3592 ... Despite yesterday's brief bounce to 1.3669 at European opening, selling interest quickly emerged below last Friday's high at 1.3677 n euro ratcheted lower to as low as 1.3582 in New York morning b4 stabilising. Some offers are tipped at 1.3620 n 1.3640 whilst some bids are located at 1.3585-80 n more at 1.3570 with stops only seen below 1.3550.
There is no major economic data coming out from the eurozone.
10 Jun 2014 01:26GMT
USD/JPY - 102.38.. State from Japna's ECONMIN Amari says "wants to settle issue of corporate taxreform this week with LDP tax panel head"; "views are split on whether to clarify how much n when to cut corporate tax".
Last night statement from the Fed's Rosengren said: 'urges predictable, transparent reductions in portfolio in years ahead to avoid financial risks; floats "seamless continuation" of QE tapering to reduce balance sheet; Fed could specify percentage of portfolio that would run off, increase that depending on economy; history shows policy 'exits' can be unsettled; Fed should focus on financial stability; backs raising IOER, doing reverse repos when time comes to tighten policy; holding mbs could help fed contain any future housing market bubbles.'
Data to be release on Tuesday:
Japan Tertiary industry index, machine tools orders, China PPI, CPI, Australia NAB Business conditions, NAB Business Confidence, investing housing finance, housing finance, Switzerland unemployment rate, retail sales, industrial output, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, GDP, U.K. BRC retail sales, manufacturing output, industrial output, NIESR GDP estimate, U.S. Redbook, wholesale sales, wholesale inventories.
AceTraderFx Jun 10: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Jun 2014 23:57GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
102.51
55 HR EMA
102.48
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
48
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise
Resistance
103.58 - 1.618 times extn of 100.81-102.14 fm 101.43
103.02 - May 02 high
102.80 - Last Wed's 1-month high
Support
102.38 - Y'day's low
102.11 - Last Fri's low
101.94 - Last Mon's European low
. USD/JPY - 102.49... Although dlr retreated after an initial marginal gain to 102.65 in Asian morning, price retreated as the release of upbeat Japan GDP boosted demand for yen. Later, dollar weakened to 102.38 in European morning n then rebounded to 102.59 in NY morning b4 moving sideways in quiet NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, dlr's strg rebound fm Fri's low at 102.11 to 102.65 y'day signals pullback fm last Wed's fresh 1-month peak at 102.80 has ended there n as the daily technical indicators are rising, suggesting upside bias remains for recent erratic upmove fm May's 3-1/2 month low at 100.81 to resume n extend to 102.86 n then 103.02, being the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of the early fall fm 104.13-100.81 n May 02 high. Looking ahead, a daily close abv there wud encourage for subsequent headway twd 103.50 (being 80.9% r) but as mentioned in previous updates, we're holding our view the broad sideways move fm 2014 5-year peak at 105.45 (Jan) is unfolding into a 'triangle' n pivotal res at 104.13 (possible B-leg top) wud continue to hold this month.
. Today, trading dlr fm long side for gain twd 103.02 is recommended n only below 102.11 wud confirm temporary is made n risk 101.57 (61.8% r fm 100.81).
AceTraderFx Jun 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/JPY & USD/JPY
11 Jun 2014 02:16GMT
EUR/USD- 1.3525 ... The single currency fell sharply from 1.3602 to 1.3543 yesterday and then 1.3524 in Asian morning today due to active cross selling in euro especially versus the Japanese yen (eur/jpy fell fm 139.43 to 138.46 n then 138.37 today). Offers are now tipped at 1.3545-60 n more at 1.3580. On the downside, stops at 1.3520 n 1.3500 are now in focus.
Bloomberg news reported y'day after a meeting hosted by Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt at his country residence in Harpsund, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron were still at loggerheads over the candidacy of Jean-Claude Juncker to head the European Commission. Merkel urged her fellow leaders to proceed in the "European spirit" to enable compromise. EU President Herman Van Rompuy signaled the choice of the next commission president will be part of a package of appointments to high European posts, increasing the scope for a negotiated deal with the U.K.
11 Jun 2014 01:50GMT
USD/JPY - 102.34 ... The greenback fell to 102.21 y'day due to active cross buying in Japanese yen on the selloff in Nikkei-225 index together with speculation that the Bank of Japan will refrain from expanding stimulus at a policy meeting this week. Offers are now tipped at 102.45-50 n more at 102.60 whilst mixture of bids n stops is located at 102.20 with more stops seen below 102.10 n 102.00.
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak at a press conference following the central bank decision on June 13. A survey by Bloomberg polled June 3 to 6 showed that 9% of the economists expect additional monetary stimulus in July, down from 38% in the previous survey.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac consumer confidence, U.K. average weekly earnings, claimant count unemployment change, ILO unemployment rate, U.S. Federal budget
AceTraderFx Jun 11: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 Jun 2014 00:06GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.8990
55 HR EMA
0.8975
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
62
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9082 - Feb 03 high
0.9037 - Last Thur's high
0.9008 - Y'day's high
Support
0.8965 - Y'day's low
0.8920 - Mon's low
0.8908 - Last Thur's low
. USD/CHF - 0.8997 ... Although the greenback traded in a narrow range in Asia y'day, renewed buying emerged at 0.8964 at European open n price rallied to session high of 0.9008 at European midday. However, dlr pared some of its gains n retreated to 0.8989 at NY open b4 moving sideways in subdued NY session.
. Looking at the hourly chart, y'day's rebound to 0.9008 suggests pullback fm last Thur's 3-1/2 month high at 0.9037 has ended at 0.8908 (Thur NY low) n consolidation with upside bias remains for erratic rise fm Mar's 2-year trough at 0.8698 to resume n yield re-test of aforesaid top. Abv wud retain bullishness for further gain to 0.9076/82, being the 'natural' 50% r of MT decline fm 0.9455 (2013 Sep peak) n Feb 03 high respectively, however, as hourly oscillators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, strg gain abv there is unlikely to be seen n risk wud increase for a much-needed correction later this week.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are buying dlr on intra-day retreat for a re-test of 0.9037 1st n only below Mon's low at 0.8920 wud indicate a temporary top has been made n turn outlook bearish for a stronger correction to 0.8908 but sup 0.8883 shud remain intact n yield subsequent rebound.
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AceTraderFx Jun 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
12 Jun 2014 01:43GMT
USD/JPY- 102.00 ... The greenback remained under pressure after yesterday's cross-inspired weakness to 101.87 due to renewed risk aversion. Nikkei-225 index currently drops by 195 points to 148734 following the retreat in global stock markets. Offers are now tipped at 102.10-20 and more at 102.30-40.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops is located at 101.80.
12 Jun 2014 00:23GMT
Statement from Japan govt. to cut corporate tax below 30% within a few years, citing a source familiar with the matter.
Reuters reported corp. tax in Japan is nearly 36% for large companies operating in Tokyo. Private-sector members of the govt.'s top economic and fiscal council have proposed cutting the rate to 25% to put it in line with international standards.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand RBNZ rate decision, U.K. RICS housing survey, Australia unemployment rate, Japan machinery orders, BoJ monetary policy meeting (12th-13th June), France CPI, current account, euro zone industrial production, U.S. jobless claims, retail sales, import prices, export prices, business inventories, Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Jun 12: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/GBP
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 12 Jun 2014 00:23GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.6784
55 HR EMA
1.6782
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
58
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
1.6883 - May 27 high
1.6845 - Last Fri's high
1.6817 - Tue's high
Support
1.6838 - Y'day's low
1.6723 - Last Thur's low
1.6693 - May's 5-week low
. GBP/USD -1.6791... Despite cable dropped to 1.6738 shortly after Asian open on Wed. Price rallied to 1.6797 in European morning after jobs data showed U.K. unemployment fell to its lowest lvl since early 2009. Later, cable extended intra-day gain to session high of 1.6812 in NY b4 retreating.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite y'day's rebound fm 1.6838, as mentioned in previous update, the early selloff fm last Fri's high of 1.6845 signals correction fm May's 5-week trough at 1.6693 has ended there n as long as 1.6833 (Mon's high) holds, downside bias remains for another decline twd 1.6723 (last Thur's low) after consolidation, below wud yield re-test of aforesaid low at 1.6693 but break there needed to confirm early fall fm May's near 5-year peak at 1.6997 (Reuters) to retrace MT uptrend has finally resumed n yield weakness to 1.6657 n then 1.6595, being the Apr 15 low n 1.23 times extension of 1.6997-1.6732 measured fm 1.6923.
. Today, as cable is currently trading abv the 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting near term upside bias remains, abv 1.6812 may yield gain to 1.6833 but only break of 1.6845 bring stronger retracement twd 1.6881 (61.8% r of 1.6997-1.6693).