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AceTraderFx April 17: U.S. dollar ends little changed after Yellen says Fed committe
Market Review - 16/04/2014 22:44GMT
U.S. dollar ends little changed after Yellen says Fed committed to policies to support recovery
U.S. dollar showed muted reaction after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Fed committed to policies to support recovery even as policy makers now see the economy reaching full employment by late 2016.
Yellen said in a speech in New York that 'the larger the shortfall of employment or inflation from their respective objectives, and the slower the projected progress toward those objectives, the longer the current target range for the federal funds rate is likely to be maintained; this approach underscores the continuing commitment of the FOMC to maintain the appropriate degree of accommodation to support the recovery.' Yellen also said wage gains are proceeding at a 'historically slow pace,' and the chances of inflation rising above the Fed's 2% goal were 'significantly below the chances of inflation persisting below 2 percent'. U.S. equities maintained gains after Yellen's comments.
U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen to 102.37 due to improved risk appetites. Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said 'inflation expectation rising as a trend while long-term rates moving stably due to BoJ's massive bond buying; want to pull end deflation at an early date by steadily continuing with current QE policy; BoJ has no intention of monetizing government debt, keeping JGB yields low just to ease fiscal burden and regardless of prices move; too early to debate exit from QE now but when time comes, will do so using most appropriate measure at the time; strongly hope government continues to proceed with efforts to restore fiscal health.'
The single currency ratcheted higher to 1.3851 in Europe on Wednesday partly on active cross buying in euro especially versus as global stock markets rebounded, however, profit-taking offers below previous daily res at 1.3864 knocked price lower to 1.3804 before trading sideways in New York.
The British pound traded in a narrow range in Asia on Wednesday as traders awaited the release of UK jobs data. Cable strengthened to 1.6763 in early European morning in tandem with euro and then rallied to an intra-day high of 1.6818 after the release of better-than-expected UK jobs report. UK unemployment rate fell to a 5-year low at 6.9% from previous reading of 7.2%. However, selling interest below Feb's 4-year high at 1.6823 capped cable's upside and price moved sideways in New York session.
On the data front, U.S. industrial production and capacity utilisation came in better-than-expected at 0.7% n 79.2% versus forecasts of 0.5% n 78.7% respectively. U.S. housing starts came in less than expected at 0.946M versus forecast of 0.973M.
Thursdaywill see the release of New Zealand consumer confidence, Australia Business confidence, Japan consumer confidence, Germany PPI, EU current account, Canada CPI, U.S. jobless claim and Philadelphia Fed Business outlook.
No major economic data will be released on Friday. New Zealand, Australia, U.K. Germany, Swiss France, U.S. and Canada financial markets are closed due to Easter Good Friday holiday.
AceTraderFx Apr 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
18 Apr 2014 01:29GMT
USD/JPY - 102.50.. Japan's FinMin Taro Aso who said Japanese govt's June growth strategy will include GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund, the pension fund for Japanese public sector employees).
In Thur's NY session, Japan's 5th largest life insurer, Mitsui Life Insurance, plans to increase its yen bond holdings by about 100 bln yen ($97 mil) in the financial year to March, its investment planning manager said on Thur.
Yoichiro Matsuta, the head of investment planning depart., told a news conference that the company also plans to raise its foreign bond holdings by about 50 bln yen, including those with n without currency-hedging.
18 Apr 2014 01:18GMT
USD/JPY - 102.53.. Usd regained traction in Thur's NY session as release of upbeat U.S. data lent support to the greenback. Later, breaking news of a joint statement following 4-way talks in Geneva on the crisis in Ukraine ended with an accord which was aimed at taking the first steps of reducing recent tensions in the conflict (see our update at 16:42GMT) boosted risk sentiment, dlr rallied broadly, the pair climbed abv Wed's 102.37 high to 102.47. Another wave of st speculative buying in the dlr emerged at Tokyo open as the Nikkei continues its near term upmove, dlr hit an intra-day high of 102.57.
Despite intra-day resumption of this week's erratic upmove, beware of a swift pullback in this holiday-thinned Tokyo session as literally all key centres are closed for the Easter Friday holiday, so intra-day volatility may increase when Tokyo market ends.
AceTraderFx April 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
21 Apr 2014
More on the renewed tensions in the Ukraine, although U.S. President Obama has been the most vocal person in calling for more sanctions on Russia if the crisis in Ukraine flares up, some in the 4-side accord are placing foucs on de-escalation with Russia. Reuters news reported on Sun German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said he wished as much emphasis would be placed on preventing an escalation of tensions with Russia over Ukraine as there is at the moment in threatening economic sanctions.
In an interview to appear in Germany's Bild am Sonntag newspaper on Sun, Steinmeier appeared to be referring to threats from the United States as well as fm within Germany about the need for economic sanctions against Russia.
Steinmeier said "I sometimes wish that the same engagement being used for the debate about sanctions would also exist when it comes to avoiding a further escalation." He then added "We've already exhaustively discussed the sanctions issue."
AceTraderFx Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major -EUR/USD
Update Time: 22 Apr 2014 00:52 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3791
Yesterday's anticipated breach of last week's low at 1.3790 to 1.3787 in holiday-thinned New York session confirms recent decline from April's high at 1.3906 has resumed and expect initial consolidation before aforesaid fall pressures euro to 1.3761 (being 61.8% r of the early rise from 1.3672-1.3906), however, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above 1.3748 (previous res, now sup).
On the upside, only a firm rise back above Monday's high at 1.3831 would signal temporary low is in place, however, reckon res at 1.3865 would remain intact.
AceTraderFx April 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
22 Apr 2014 02:37GMT
USD/JPY - 102.65.. Dlr pares initial gain after rising for 7-consecutive days to a near 2-week high of 102.73 at Tokyo open as release of upbeat U.S. data on Mon n a higher open in the Nikkei 225 boosted risk appetite, st specs sold yen broadly, however, offers at 102.70/80 fm Japanese exporters checked intra-day gain.
Expect minor range trading to take place b4 recent erratic upmove fm Apr's low at 101.32 resumes. Initial bids are noted at 102.55-50 n more below with a mixture of more buying interest n stops near 102.35-30, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go.
Japan's Economy Minister Akira Amari says "still fees considerable gap in TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) talks with U.S.".
Japan FinMin Taro Aso says 'expect strengthening of Japan-US alliance through this week's summit.'
AceTraderFx Apr 22: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 22 Apr 2014 00:40GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
1.6794
55 HR EMA
1.6796
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
42
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6879 - 2009 high (Nov)
1.6842 - Last Thur's high
1.6819 - Y'day's high
Support
1.6771 - Last Fri's low
1.6749 - Last Tue's high
1.6713 - Last Tue's NY sup
. GBP/USD - 1.6789... Although the pound traded with a steady tone at Mon
open y'day, broad-based buying of sterling helped price to ratchet higher fm
last Fri's 1.6771 low (Reuters) to intra-day peak of 1.6819 b4 coming off in NY
due to euro's weakness, cable later retreated to 1.6790, then 1.6786 today.
. Looking at the hourly and daily charts, as last week's 4-1/2 year high at
1.6842 high was accompanied by bearish divergences on the hourly indicators, sub
sequent retreat suggests a temporary top has been made n initial consolidation
with downside bias is seen, however, break of 1.6657 sup is needed to violate
recent series of higher lows n higher highs n signal the long-awaited correction
has taken place, then cable wud head twd 1.6554. On the upside, abv 1.6842 wud
extend MT upmove fm 1.4228 (2010 bottom) to 1.6879 (Nov 2009 high) n possibly
twd 1.6945, being 50% projection of the MT intermediate rise fm 1.5854-1.6823
measured fm 1.6460, bearish divergences on daily indicators shud cap price
below key res 1.7044 (Aug 2009 peak - reaction high fm 2009 low at 1.3500).
. Today, as long as 1.6819 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.6771 wud
yield weakness to 1.6747/49 n only abv 1.6819 may risk re-test of 1.6842.
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
23 Apr 2014 02:00GMT
USD/JPY - 102.59 ... U.S. dollar ratcheted higher from yesterday's low at 102.41 to 102.69 in Tokyo morning due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index which rose by more than 100 points, however, selling interest emerged below yesterday's high at 102.73 n price retreated to 102.57 after the release of less-than-expected Australian CPI data. Offers are tipped at 102.70 whilst bids are located at 102.45/50 with stops building up above 102.75 n below 102.40.
Japan FinMin Aso says 'need more time before Abeconomic reaches entire economy.'
BoJ's Nakaso says 'if change to BoJ's outlook, will make needed adjustment; thinks Japan economy resilient enough to ABSorb tax hike.'
Japan FinMin Taro Aso says 'Must ensure to keep Japan economy strong this year so government can proceed with next sales tax hike to 10%.'
BoJ's Kuroda sayswon't aim to lower fiscal burden after BoJ hits target; sustainable government finances need for sustainable growth; strongly hope government steadily tackles fiscal reform.'
Japan FinMin Taro Aso says 'Japan's regional economies are recovering.'
23 Apr 2014 01:31GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9328... Australia 1Q CPI came in at 0.6% Q/Q n 2.9% Y/Y, lower than the forecast of 0.8% n 3.2% respectively.
Aud sharply retreats from 0.9377 to 0.9325 after the release of CPI data.
23 Apr 2014 01:45GMT
China HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 48.3, same as expectation.
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11625
23 Apr 201406:36GMT
Usd's rally to 11645 confirms erratic rise from
Mar's low at 11255 has resumed n further gain to
11665 is seen, above would extend to 11690.
Hold long with stop as indicated n below would
risk stronger pullback but 11525 should hold.
STRATEGY : Long at 11630
POSITION : Long at 11630
OBJECTIVE : 11690
STOP-LOSS : 11600
RES : 11665/11690/11760
SUP : 11525/11465/11400
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
23 Apr 2014 08:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3824... Eurozone Apr manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3, better than the forecast of 53.0. Apr Service PMI came in at 54.0, stronger than the forecast of 52.5.
The single currency found renewed buying at 1.3799 in Asian morning n strengthened to 1.3819 n rose briefly to 1.3837 at European open, however, the release of weaker-than-expected French manf. PMI pressured the pair lower n price retreated to 1.3799 again. Euro found support there after the release of upbeat German manf. PMI n price recovered to 1.3820.
Offers are now seen at 1.3830/40 n more abv at 1.3850/60 with stops building up abv there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3785/90.
German Apr Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.2, better than the forecast of 53.8. Service PMI came in at 55.0, stronger than the foreacst of 53.3.
AceTraderFx Apr 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, NZD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, NZD/USD
24 Apr 2014 02:14GMT
NZD/USD - 0.8630 ... New Zealand's central bank raised its benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent earlier today, as widely expected.
RBNZ said there would be further increases to keep on top of inflation pressures in the strongly-growing economy.
New Zealand dollar strengthened to as high as 0.8638 after hawkish statement by Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler.
24 Apr 2014 01:57GMT
USD/JPY - 102.45 ... Although the greenback has staged a rebound to 102.57 in Australian morning today after yesterday's cross-inspired retreat from 102.69 to 102.17 (Europe), renewed selling below 102.55/60 capped dlr's upside n more offers are tipped at 102.65/70 with stops only seen above 102.75.
Nikkei-225 index pared some of early losses n currently dropped by 16 points to 14530.
Trading is likely to be thin today as investors are waiting for Friday's release of Tokyo CPI data, the first reading after the sales tax increase.
Besides, BOJ board members will set policy on April 30, when they will release their latest forecasts on inflation and economic growth.