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AceTraderFx March 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Mar 2014 06:43GMT
USD/JPY - 102.87... Despite dlr's rebound after a brief sell off to 102.79 at Asian open, cross-related selling capped gain at 103.10 in Tokyo morning and price subsequently fell to 102.84 in European morning before stabilizing.
Offers are noted at 103.00-10 and then 103.25/30 with stops emerging above 103.50, whilst bids are placed at 102.65/60 and around 102.50 with mixture of bids and stops located at 102.35/30.
05:01GMT
USD/JPY - 102.98...Japan Feb Consumer Confidence Index came in at 38.3, lower than the expectation of 40.0.
AceTraderFx March 13: The single currency rises on Wed after ECB's official comments
Market Review - 12/03/2014 20:31GMT
The single currency rises on Wednesday after ECB's official comments
The single currency rose against U.S. dollar on Wednesday and re-tested last Friday's 2-1/4 year high at 1.3915 after a senior European Bank official said there are no signs of deflation in the euro zone.
During the day, although the single currency retreated to 1.3844 in European morning, renewed cross-buying limited intra-day losses there and price later rose to 1.3915 (last Friday's 2-1/4 year peak) in New York on 'euro-positive' comments from ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure.
ECB's Coeure said on Wednesday that 'we don't see deflation in the euro zone; we see deflation as a risk, and we have to be ready to act; we may have situation where level of excess liquidity is not appropriate to monetary policy stance, would have to inject more liquidity; that is not the case now; different contingencies would call for different policy instruments; development of ABS market is probably beyond remit of monetary policy, European commission should lead it.'
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar rebounded after marginal weakness below Tuesday's low at 102.84 to 102.79 in Australia on Wednesday, renewed cross-buying of yen due to risk aversion amid lingering concerns over the health of China's economy and escalating tensions over the crisis in Ukraine capped intra-day gain at 103.10 in Asia and the pair later fell further to 102.62, then 102.55 in New York morning before recovering.
Ukraine’s interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk was to travel to the U.S. to meet President Barack Obama on Wednesday, as diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis continued.
Cable moved in a choppy fashion on Wednesday as despite falling from European morning high of 1.6636 to a fresh 2-week low at 1.6568 on risk-off trade ahead of New York opening, price rebounded strongly in tandem with euro to 1.6627 in New York before stabilizing.
On the data front, report showed that euro zone industrial production was down 0.2% in January from a month earlier, dragged down by a 2.5% drop in energy output. However, the underlying trend remained strong, with industrial output rising 2.1% on a year-over-year basis, after rising at an annual rate of 1.2% in December.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, as widely expected, and flagged a series of further increases to keep inflation pressures in check as the economy gains momentum.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan machine orders, China fixed assets exclude rural, retail sales, industrial production, U.K. RICS house price balance, France HICP, CPI, Italy HICP, Canada capacity utilization rate, new housing price index, U.S. retail sales, initial jobless claims, import price index, business inventories.
AceTraderFx March 13: Daily Recommendations on Major – EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3860
Update Time: 12 Mar 2014 01:41 GMT
Despite euro's retreat to 1.3834 yesterday, subsequent rebound to 1.3877 in New York afternoon suggests the correction from last Friday's fresh 2-year high at 1.3915 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen, however, above Monday's high at 1.3897 is needed to confirm this view and yield resumption of medium-term uptrend for a re-test of said top.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.3825 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate a temporary top has been made and bring retracement towards 1.3776.
AceTraderFx March 13: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 13 Mar 2014 00:16GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.3889
55 HR EMA
1.3875
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
67
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise
Resistance
1.4000 - Psychological res
1.3939 - Eq. proj. of 1.3477-1.3773 fm 1.3643
1.3915 - Last Fri's high
Support
1.3834 - Tue's low
1.3825 - Feb 28 high (now sup)
1.3786 - (61.8% r of 1.3707-1.3915)
. EUR/USD - 1.3899... Despite y'day's brief dip to 1.3843 in European
morning y'day, the single currency managed to hold abv Tue's low at 1.3834 n
price rose on 'euro-positive' comments from ECB executive board member Benoit
Coeure. Euro re-tested last Fri's 2-1/4 year high at 1.3915 in NY b4 easing.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's aforesaid rise to 1.3915
signals MT uptrend fm 2012 trough at 1.2042 (Jun) has once again resumed n as
long as 1.3834 sup holds, euro shud head to 1.3939 (equality projection of
1.3477-1.3773 measured fm 1.3643), abv wud encourage for further gain twds
1.3982, being the 61.8% projection of 1.3707-1.3915 measured fm 1.3853, however,
as 'bearish divergences' wud appear on the hourly indicators on such move, sug-
gesting strg gain abv latter lvl is unlikely n 'psychological' res at 1.4000
shud hold on 1st testing n yield a much-needed correction later this week.
. Today, in view of current bullish scenario, buying euro on dips in anti-
cipation of further rise is still favoured. On the downside, only below 1.3834
sup wud signal temporary top is made n risk stronger retracement of upmove fm
Feb's low at 1.3477 to 1.3786 (61.8% r of 1.3707-1.3915).
AceTraderFx March 14: Euro falls sharply from a fresh 2-1/4 year peak on increased...
Market Review - 13/03/2014 23:05GMT
Euro falls sharply from a fresh 2-1/4 year peak on increased Ukraine worries and ECB dovish remarks
The single currency rose to a fresh 2-1/4 year high at 1.3966 against the dollar on Thursday as diminished expectations on more easing by the European Central Bank bolstered demand for the euro.
However, gain was capped as investors remained wary due to the escalating tensions between Russia and the West ahead of Sunday's referendum in Ukraine's Crimea region, now controlled by pro-Russian forces.
During the day, despite euro's sideways trading in Thursday's Asian session after rallying to 1.3915 in previous session, this renewed buying at 1.3843 lifted price higher to a fresh 2-1/4 year peak at 1.3966 in European morning.
However dollar's broad-based rebound due to upbeat U.S. economic reports (retail sales and initial jobless claims) knocked price down to 1.3937 in New York morning.
Later, the single currency tumbled to 1.3846 due to active cross-selling in euro against the Japanese yen together with the sell-off in global stock markets on increased Ukraine worries, and with the dovish remarks from ECB's president Draghi. Dow Jones index closed down by 231 points to 16109.
ECB President Mario Draghi said that the European Central Bank has been preparing additional policy steps to guard against deflation taking hold in the euro zone as the strong euro weighs on prices
U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 0.3% in February, ending two months of declines and better than market's expectation for an increase of 0.2%.
Meanwhile, core retail sales which exclude automobile sales, rose 0.3% last month, ahead of expectations for a 0.1% rise. A separate report from Department of Labor showed that the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a three month low of 315,000 last week, from the previous week's revised total of 324,000.
Cable found support at 1.6607 in Asia and price started to rise in tandem with euro during Tokyo afternoon. Price ratcheted higher to 1.6686 in European morning and then further to 1.6719 ahead of New York open before easing in New York morning. Later, cable nose-dived to 1.6607 due to dollar's broad-based rebound on safe-haven demand.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar fell below Wednesday's low at 102.55 to 102.41 in Asia as lackluster data from China fuelled risk aversion and despite a brief rebound to 102.80 in New York morning after stronger-than-expected data on U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims, renewed risk aversion due to the sharp sell-off in global stock markets triggered another round of cross-buying in yen and U.S. dollar tumbled to as low as 101.54 in late New York before recovering.
Chinese industrial production rose 8.6% in the first two months of 2014, according to data released on Thursday, missing market expectations for an increase of 9.5%, while Chinese retail sales rose by a smaller than forecast 11.8% in the same period.
In other news, ECB's Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said 'we have no Fx target; but euro appreciation can influence inflation outlook, which mean that we have to take this into account for monetary policy.
Watching German house price developments very closely, there is no systemic risk so far, and seeing normalization in money markets in recent months.
we have policy instrument at our disposal if needed to deal with low inflation, there is not much room let for further conventional measures, the need to discuss non-conventional measures together with the legal questions around these.'
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, BoJ Feb meeting minutes, Japan industrial production, capacity utilization, Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. trade balance, U.S. PPI and University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx March 14: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 14 Mar 2014 00:58GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8739
55 HR EMA
0.8748
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
59
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.8859 - Last Wed's low (now res)
0.8816 - Last Fri's high
0.8764 - Y'day's high
Support
0.8698 - Y'day's fresh 2-1/4 year low
0.8674 - 1.618 times ext. of 0.9156-0.8904 fm 0.9082
0.8636 - 50% proj. of 0.9839-0.8800 fm 0.9156
. USD/CHF - 0.8752... Dlr met renewed selling at 0.8749 in Asia on Thur n price easily penetrate Wed's NY low at 0.8734 to a fresh 2-1/4 year trough at 0.8698 in European morning. Later, dlr staged a rally to 0.8764 in NY afternoon, due partly to the selloff in euro b4 trading sideways.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rally fm a fresh 2-1/4
year trough at 0.8698 together with prominent bullish convergences appearing on hourly indicators suggest MT downtrend fm 2012 peak at 0.9972 has formed a temporary bottom there n as price wud at least retrace the intermediate fall fm 0.9038 (Feb 12 peak), upside bias remains for gain to 0.8828, being the minimum 38.2% r, abv wud extend marginally but res area 0.8859/68 (last Wed's low, now res n 50% r of 0.9038-0.8698 resp.) shud hold today n yield retreat. Looking ahead, a daily close below 0.8698 wud revive bearishness for a resumption of MT fall twds 0.8674 (1.618 times ext. of 0.9156-0.8904 measured fm 0.9082), then 0.8636, being 50% proj. of 0.9839-0.8800 measured fm 0.9156.
. Today, in view of nr term bullish bias, we are holding a long position
entered in NY for gain to 0.8830 n a stop placed at 0.8720.
AceTraderFx March 14: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic – USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11410
14 Mar 2014 05:10GMT
Wednesday's rebound to 11465 suggests choppy trading
Monday's 4-month low of 11345 would continue and marginal
gain from here can't be ruled out before another fall.
Exit previous short at 11450 as only below 11345
revives bearishness for weakness to 11300.
AceTraderFx March 17: Japanese yen rises on risk aversion ahead of Sunday's outcome..
Market Review - 14/03/2014 11:44GMT
Japanese yen rises on risk aversion ahead of Sunday's outcome of the referendum in Crimea
The Japanese yen rose broadly against major currencies on Friday due to renewed risk aversion on increased tensions in Ukraine together with the fears about the health of the Chinese economy as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang warned on Thursday that the economy faced "severe challenges" in 2014 while expectations of more debt defaults kept alive worries about the state of its financial sector. However, trading was relatively thin on Friday as traders and investors are reluctant to add bets ahead of the outcome of the referendum in Crimea on Sunday.
The yen poised for its biggest weekly gains in more than a month against the euro and the dollar. Euro fell sharply fm Monday's high at 143.61 to as low as 140.46 whilst U.S. dollar tumbled from Tuesday's high at 103.43 to as low as 101.21 on Friday. Sterling also fell sharply from Monday's high at 172.87 to as low as 167.96 on Friday.
The single currency hit a 2-1/4 year high versus U.S. dollar on Thursday and then retreated to 1.3846 after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi raised concerns about the strength of the eurozone common currency, however, renewed buying at 1.3848 on Friday lifted price to 1.3938 in New York.
News from Reuters, the White House said that Russia's failure to take steps to ease the crisis in Ukraine is "regrettable" and the United States is ready to respond quickly following a referendum planned for Sunday on whether Ukraine's Crimea region should join Russia.
Despite cable's marginal weakness below Thursday's low at 1.6607 to 1.6587, the British pound rebounded strongly after "cable-positive" comments from BoE's Bean who said 'business surveys, employment growth suggests official overall economic growth figures may be an underestimate.' Cable rose to a session high at 1.6649 near New York close.
"We have obviously not gotten to a situation where Russia has chosen to de-escalate, where Russia has chosen a path of resolving the situation peacefully and through diplomacy. That is regrettable. We will have to see how the next several days unfold," White House spokesman Jay Carney told a briefing.
"We stand ready to respond should the referendum go forward on Sunday," Carney said. Asked how soon the response would come, he said, "I think without putting too fine a point on it, I'd say quickly."
Data to be released next week:
U.K. Rightmove house price, EU CPI, U.S. Empire manufacturing, net long term TIC, total net TIC flows, industrial production, capacity utilization, NAHB housing market index on Monday.
Italy trade balance, German ZEW current situation, ZEW expectation, EU ZEW expectation, U.S. CPI, housing starts, building permit, Redbook retail sales on Tuesday.
New Zealand current account, Australia leading index, Japan trade balance, import, export, all activity index, leading index, France current account, U.K. BoE minutes, jobless claim, average weekly earning, unemployment rate, employment change, Swiss Zew expectation, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
New Zealand GDP, Swiss trade balance, import, export, rate decision, Germany PPI, Italy current account U.K. CBI trend total orders, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, existing home sales, leading index on Thursday.
New Zealand consumer confidence, EU current account, consumer confidence U.K. public finance, Canada retail sales, CPI on Friday.Japan financial market will be closed due to public holiday.
AceTraderFx March 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Mar 2014 02:35GMT
USD/JPY -101.48.. Although dlr opened near Fri's NY 101.21 low at 101.24 in NZ trading today, short-covering lifted price in Toyko morning n dlr climbed to 101.57 b4 easing.
At the moment, offers are seen at 101.60/70 n more at 101.90/00 whilst bids are placed near 101.00 n around 100.80/85 with stops emerging just below 100.50.
Expect choppy trading to continue ahead of Toyko afternoon as Nikkei 225 index is moving between gains n loss (last seen down 63.45 points to 14,264) after over 90 percent of Crimean voters chose to break with Ukraine and join Russia on Sunday. However, investors should keep an eye on the release of Japan Cabinet Office monthly economic report for March later today.
Highlights fm the economic report in Feb - 'the Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace; exports are flat; industrial production is increasing at a moderate pace; corporate profits are improving. Business investment is picking up; firms' judgment on current business conditions is broadly improving; the employment situation is improving steadily; private consumption is increasing, while showing a last-minute rise in demand before a consumption tax increase in some sectors; prices are rising moderately.'
AceTraderFx March 17: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – GBP/USD
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 17 Mar 2014 00:07GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
1.6631
55 HR EMA
1.6632
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
53
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
1.6745 - Last Mon's high (NZ)
1.6719 - Last Thur's high
1.6686 - Hourly res
Support
1.6605 - Hourly sup
1.6587 - Last Fri's low
1.6568 - Last Wed' 3-week low
. GBP/USD - 1.6635... Although weakness in sterling last week pressured
the pound below previous daily sup at 1.6583 to a 30-week trough of 1.6568,
broad-based short-covering lifted cable to as high s 1.6719 Thur but only to
fall sharply back to as low as 1.6587 Fri b4 staging another bounce.
. Cable's aforesaid strg bounce fm 1.6568 to 1.6719 suggests correction fm
Feb's 4-year peak at 1.6823 has possibly ended there n initial consolidation is
in store this week, abv 1.6719 wud add credence to this view, then price shud
head twd pivotal res at 1.6787, break wud encourage for a re-test of 1.6823 n
later twd 1.6921, this is 61.8% proj. of MT intermediate rise fm 1.6252-1.6823
measured fn 1.6568. On the downside, below 1.6568 wud confirm MT rise fm 2013 3-
year trough at 1.4814 has formed a temporary there, then risk wud shift to the
downside for weakness twd 1.6470, this is 61.8% r of the intermediate rise fm
1.6252-1.6823.
. Today, in view of abv analysis n intra-day neutral outlook on cable, we
are standing aside initially n may trade fm both sides of the market for short
trade. However, as long as Fri's low at 1.6587 holds, price may ratchet higher