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AceTraderFx Mar 6: Daily Technical Outlook on Major EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
06 Mar 2014 00:19GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.3733
55 HR EMA
1.3738
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
45
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.3894 - Dec 27 2-year peak
1.3825 - Last Fri's 2-month high
1.3782 - Tue's high
Support
1.3707 - Y'day's low
1.3694 - Last Fri's low
1.3643 - Feb 27 low
. EUR/USD - 1.3731... Euro fluctuated inside a narrow range of 1.3707-
1.3749 on Wed. Price met renewed selling at 1.3745 in Europe n then weakened to
1.3707 but short-covering lifted price to 1.3749 in NY morning b4 retreating.
. Looking at the hourly charts n as mentioned in our previous update, the
selloff fm last Fri's 2-month high at 1.3825 to as low as 1.3707 on Wed suggests
erratic upmove fm Feb's low at 1.3477 has indeed formed a temporary top there n
as long as res at 1.3782 (Tue's high) holds, 'choppy' consolidation with down-
side bias remains for a stronger retracement of aforesaid rise, below 1.3692/94
(being 38.2% r of 1.3477-1.3825 n last Fri's low respectively) wud extend subse-
quent weakness to 1.3675, this is equality projection of 1.3825-1.3718 measured
fm 1.3782 n then twds last week's low at 1.3643, however, anticipated low read-
ings on the hourly oscillators shud prevent steep fall below there n yield subse
sequent rebound.
. Today, we're holding a short position for one more fall. Only a breach
of Tue's high at 1.3782 wud signal pullback fm 1.3825 is possibly over n yield
gain twd 1.3825, break may extend twd Dec's 2-year peak at 1.3894.
AceTraderFx Mar 7: Euro rallies to new 2 mths peak after ECB raises inflation...
Market Review - 06/03/2014 20:39GMT
Euro rallies to a fresh two-month peak after ECB raises inflation expectation
The single currency rallied to a fresh two-month peak at 1.3873 versus U.S. dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank refrained from tightening monetary policy, and slightly upgraded its forecast for growth this year.
During the day, although euro traded sideways below Wednesday's high of 1.3749 in Asia and briefly dropped to 1.3722 in European morning, price rebounded after data showed German factory orders came in better-than-expected in January. Later, euro moved in a volatile manner shortly after the release of ECB's rate decision but eventually rallied to a fresh two-month peak at 1.3873 in New York as ECB President Mario Draghi confirmed the latest economic data indicating that 'the moderate economic recovery in the euro zone is proceeding.'
ECB President Mario Draghi confirmed that the bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the latest economic data indicating that 'the moderate economic recovery in the euro zone is proceeding.' The central bank revised its forecast for economic growth in 2014 to 1.2% from 1.1% in December. The bank revised down its inflation forecast for this year to 1.0% from 1.1% in December. The bank expects inflation to pick up to 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, remaining below the bank's target of just under 2%. Draghi reiterated the ECB's forward guidance on rates and said that interest rates will remain at their present levels, or lower for an extended period. The ECB remains determined to maintain the high degree on accommodating monetary policy for as long as needed, and will take further actions as it sees fit.
Earlier, report showed German factory orders were up 1.2 percent over December, when adjusted for price, calendar and seasonal factors. The office also said it revised the previous month's decline of 0.5 percent to a decline of only 0.2 percent.
Cable fluctuated wildly on Thursday, as despite a brief rise above Wednesday's high of 1.6742 to 1.6753 after the Bank of England kept monetary policy unchanged in a widely anticipated decision, active cross-selling in sterling versus euro knocked price down to 1.6686 in New York morning. Later, cable rallied to session high at 1.6778 in New York afternoon before retreating to 1.6734 near New York closing.
The Bank of England voted to leave U.K. interest rates unchanged at their record low of 0.5%, and also left its quantitative easing program steady at 375 billion pounds.
Active cross-selling in Japanese yen due to increased risk appetite continued to lift usd/jpy pair higher on Thursday. Dollar rose from Australian low at 102.27 to 102.81 in European morning and then further to a fresh one-month peak at 103.17 in New York morning before easing due to some profit-taking.
On the data front, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 26,000 to 323,000 from the previous week's revised total of 349,000.
Data to be release on Friday:
Japan leading index, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, France trade balance, Italy PPI, Germany industrial production, Canada unemployment rate, labor productivity, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, trade balance, and avg. hourly earnings.
AceTraderFx March 10: U.S. dollar rises on robust U.S. jobs report
Market Review - 07/03/2014 20:34GMT
U.S. dollar rises on robust U.S. jobs report
U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies after the release of higher-than-expected U.S. non-farms payrolls data. Employers added 175,000 jobs to their payrolls last month after creating 129,000 (upwardly revised) new positions in January. However, the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from a five-year low of 6.6% as Americans flooded into the labor market to search for work. The data added speculations that the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its monetary stimulus despite the icy weather that gripped much of the nation.
The single currency rose to a fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3915 on signs that the European Central Bank's balance sheet was shrinking. On the data front, German Jan industrial production came in at 0.8% m/m n 5.0% y/y, vs the forecast of 0.8% n 3.9%, previous reading is revised to 0.1% n 3.4% respectively, however, euro pared all the gains after the release of robust U.S. jobs report. The pair retreated to 1.3853 before trading sideways in New York session.
U.S. dollar rallied to as high as 103.76 against the Japanese yen after the release of robust U.S. jobs report, however, profit-taking knocked price lower to 103.12 before trading sideways in New York session on mounting tensions over Ukraine led stocks in Europe and elsewhere to retreat, while U.S. shares traded near flat. The British pound strengthened briefly to 1.6787 on Friday before retreating to 1.6706 in New York afternoon.
In other news, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Friday that the U.S. boom in onshore natural gas production has cut power prices and appears to be contributing to the "reshoring" of manufacturing jobs from overseas. "It's a terrific development. I don't want to overstate it but it's one of the bright spots in the economy," Bernanke said at the IHS CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.
Bernanke said "the jobs number we got this morning was consistent with a recovering economy; signs of less wrangling in Congress over the debt limit and the budget should help alleviate worries among investors." However, Bernanke added more needs to be done on "too big to fail" rules that would limit the risks financial institutions can take. He added that he feels relatively optimistic about the global economy.
Data to be released next week:
Japan trade balance, GDP, Eco watchers survey, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Swiss retail sales, Italy Industrial production, U.K. Lloyds employment confidence, EU Sentix investor confidence, Canada housing starts on Monday.
Australia NAB business confidence, NAB business conditions, Japan rate decision, U.K. sales like-for-like, industrial production, manufacturing production, Germany trade balance, exports, imports, current account, Italy GDP, U.S. wholesale inventories and wholesale trade sales on Tuesday.
Australia consumer confidence, home loans, Japan tertiary industry index, BSI large all industry, BSI large manufacturing domestic CGPI, consumer confidence, U.K. trade balance, EU industrial production, U.S. monthly budget statement on Wednesday.
New Zealand rate decision, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan machine orders, China fixed assets exclude rural, retail sales, industrial production, U.K. RICS house price balance, France HICP, CPI, Italy HICP, Canada capacity utilization rate, new housing price index, U.S. retail sales, initial jobless claims, import price index, business inventories on Thursday.
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan industrial production, capacity utilization, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. PPI, university of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.
AceTraderFx Mar 10: Daily Market Outlook on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3887
Update Time: 10 Mar 2014 01:05 GMT
Although price has rebounded after sharp retreat from last Friday's fresh 2-year peak at 1.3915 to 1.3853 and minor consolidation would be seen in Asia today, as aforesaid move signals a temporary top has been made there, outlook remains mildly bearish for a stronger retracement to 1.3795/00. However, sharp fall below there is unlikely to be seen and support at 1.3776 would hold and yield strong recovery later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3915 would revive bullishness for further gain to 1.3939, then 1.3950/55 before prospect of a correction.
AceTraderFx March 10: Weekly Technical Outlook on Major - USD/CHF
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
10 Mar 2014 00:20GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8786
55 HR EMA
0.8809
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
39
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
0.8895 - Last Wed's high
0.8859 - Last Wed's low (now sup)
0.8816 - Last Fri's high
Support
0.8756 - Last Fri's frsh 2-year low
0.8707 - 61.8% proj. of 0.9082-0.8777 fm 0.8895
0.8674 - 1.618 times ext. of 0.9156-0.8904 fm 0.9082
. USD/CHF - 0.8775... Although dlr traded abv previous week's 2-year low
of 0.8777 last Mon n ratcheted higher on short-covering to 0.8895 Wed, rally in
eur/usd on Thur after ECB president Draghi's upbeat remarks knocked price lower,
dlr later fell to 0.8756 on Fri b4 briefly recovering to 0.8816 in NY session.
. Looking at the daily chart, last week's breach of 0.8777 low to a fresh
2-year trough at 0.8756 shud pressure the greenback this week n as long as res
at 0.8895 holds, the MT downtrend fm 0.9972 (2012 peak) to retrace dlr's LT rise
fm 2011 record low at 0.7072 (Aug) wud head to 0.8636, this is 50% proj. of the
intermediate fall fm 0.9839 to 0.8800 measured fm 0.9156, however, as daily
technical indicators' readings wud reach o/sold territory on such move, reckon
0.8522, being the 'natural' 50% correction of aforesaid LT upmove, wud contain
weakness n bring rebound later this month. Therefore, selling dlr on recovery in
anticipation of resumption of decline is favoured n only abv 0.8895 confirms a
temporary low is in place n risks strg retracement to 0.8930, 0.9038.
. Today, expect initial sideways trading n as long as Fri's NY high at 0.88
16 holds, marginal fall to 0.8707/10 is likely. Abv 0.8816 risks 0.8855/60
AceTraderFx March 11: Dollar trades mixed against other major currencies on Monday
Market Review - 10/03/2014 22:57GMT
Dollar trades mixed against other major currencies on Monday
The greenback traded mixed versus other major rivals on Monday as poor Chinese trade data and downbeat economic reports from Japan weighed on sentiment.
Data released over the weekend showed that exports from China fell 18.1% on a year-over-year basis in February, confounding expectations for a 7.5% increase, following a rise of 10.6% in January. A separate report on Monday showed that Japan posted record current account deficit of 1.589 trillion yen in January and fourth quarter growth was revised down.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback opened sharply lower on Monday to 102.83 in New Zealand morning from Friday's New York close near 103.25, renewed buying quickly emerged and lifted the pair higher to 103.30 at Asian open. However, dollar retreated again to 102.98 in Tokyo morning, weighed down by the release of weaker-than-expected Japan GDP data together with the decline in Nikkei-225 index and then further to 102.94 in European morning before rebounding to 103.40 due partly to cross-selling in yen. Later, dollar chopped inside 102.83-103.41 for rest of the New York session, ended around 103.27 near New York closing.
Japan's economy grew 0.2% in the final three months of 2013, in line with market expectation. On a year-over-year basis, the economy expanded by 0.7%, compared to an initial estimate of 0.9%.
The single currency found renewed buying at 1.3869 in New Zealand and strengthened to 1.3892 in early Asia. Price later rose marginally higher to 1.3897 in European morning, near last Friday's fresh 2-1/4 year peak at 1.3915, but broad-based rebound in greenback pressured euro to 1.3868 ahead of New York open in part due to risk aversion on falling major shares markets. Later, the single currency dropped further to 1.3662 in New York afternoon before trading narrowly.
The British pound tumbled against euro and U.S. dollar on Monday as unexpectedly weak trade data from China prompted concerns over the outlook for the global economic recovery. Cable retreated versus dollar after meeting renewed selling at 1.6745 in New Zealand and then dropped below Friday's low at 1.6706 to 1.6683 in European morning. The pair fell further to 1.6625 and then 1.6622 in New York morning after comments from BoE's Bean before stabilising.
In U.K., Bank of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean said 'Further sterling strength "would not be particular helpful" for U.K. exports; advises against "getting too hung up on precise date at which bank rate first rises"; likely to learn a lot about recovery between now and spring 2015 when market prices in rate hike; there is more scope for housing investment to continue driving growth; BoE keeping a "beady eye" on housing market, in case low housing supply and high mortgage lending creates risks; reasonable grounds to expect business investment to take over from household demand as driver of U.K. recovery; reasonable to believable U.K. to pre-crisis productivity growth, uncertain when; most obvious risk to U.K. recovery is euro zero clearly concerns about emerging markets; main domestic risk to U.K. recovery is that it runs out of steam, and possibility that housing market becomes over-exuberant; Scottish independence could at minimum create a period of uncertainty; important review of banks in euro zone is conducted well, in a way that enhances confidence; current level of sterling fine if it stays where it is; if sterling appreciates further, lower inflation pressures may keep policy looser for longer.'
ECB policymaker Christian Noyer said on Monday 'monetary policy should remark active because persistent low inflation threatens price stability; there are "permanent and deep forces" pushing inflation down at both the euro area and global level; there is no deflation in euro area today, inflation expectation are firmly anchored in positive territory; money market yield curve needs to remain lows; shrinking of ECB balance sheet "not a problem"; euro zone banks can always draw more liquidity.'
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters at Columbus State University that 'the Federal Reserve should revamp its so-called forward guidance by reinforcing that interest rates will stay low for "quite some time" and that much will depend on continued improvement in the labor market.' Evans said "It ought to be something that captures well the fact that (rates are) going to continue to be low well past the time that we change the language; Tick through the different labor market indicators: payroll employment, unemployment, labor force, vacancies, job openings and things like that; we somehow want to capture that general improvement in labor market indicators, but that is hard." Evans added "we're going to have accommodation for really quite some time."
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia NAB business confidence, NAB business conditions, Japan rate decision, Germany trade balance, exports, imports, current account, Italy GDP, U.K. sales like-for-like, industrial production, manufacturing production, U.S. wholesale inventories and wholesale trade sal
AceTraderFx Mar 11: Daily Market Outlook on Major – EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3671
Update Time: 11 Mar 2014 01:46 GMT
Despite yesterday's sideways trading, as price has held above Friday's New York low at 1.3853, suggesting consolidation with upside bias remains for medium-term uptrend from 2012 trough at 1.2042 to resume and yield re-test of last Friday's fresh 2-year peak at 1.3915, break would retain bullishness for further gain to 1.3939. However, loss of momentum would prevent strong rise above there and yield a 'much-needed' correction later.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.3825 (previous resistance, now support) would signal a temporary top has been made and risk retracement to 1.3776.
AceTraderFx March 11: Daily Technical Outlook on Major - GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
11/03/2014 00:49 GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
1.6661
55 HR EMA
1.6689
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/sold
13 HR RSI
39
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6787 - Last Fri's 2-week high
1.6745 - Y'day's high (NZ)
1.6706 - Last Fri's NY low
Support
1.6622 - Y'day's low
1.6583 - Feb 24 low
1.6547 - Eq. of 1.6823-1.6583 fm 1.6787
. GBP/USD - 1.6642... Despite staging a brief recovery fm last Fri's NY low at 1.6706 to 1.6745 in NZ on Mon, the British pound tumbled in European morning due to active cross selling in sterling (eur/gbp rallied fm 0.8290 to 0.8351). Cable weakened further to 1.6622 due to dovish comments fm BOE's Bean.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, yesterday's sell off signals the
recovery fm last Mon's low at 1.6583 has ended at 1.6787 last Fri n further
'choppy' consolidation below Feb's 4-year peak at 1.6823 wud continue with
downside bias n as long as 1.6706 (prev. sup, now res) holds, another leg of
corrective fall twd 1.6583 is likely, below wud bring stronger retracement of MT intermediate rise fm 1.6252 to 1.6538/47 (being 50% r of 1.6252-1.6823 n 100% measurement of 1.6823-1.6583 projected fm 1.6787 respectively), however, reckon downside wud hold abv dynamic sup at 1.6470 (61.8% r of 1.6252-1.6823).
. Today, in view of near term bearish scenario, selling cable on recovery
in anticipation of further weakness is favoured n only a breach of 1.6706 wud
signal the pullback fm Fri's 1.6787 high is over instead n yield stronger gain
to 1.6745 1st, abv wud yield re-test of 1.6787 res later this week.
AceTraderFx March 11: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic – USD/KRW
DAILY
USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1063.5
11 Mar 2014 05:38GMT
Despite US Dollar's rebound from 1060.2 (Fri) to 1067.1
yesterday, intra-day stronger-than-expected retreat to
1063.5 suggests choppy sideways move would continue.
Stand aside as price is expected to gyrate inside
indicated range of 1058.2-1078.3 for now.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1067.6/1070.0/1073.0
SUP : 1063.5/1061.5/1060.2
AceTraderFx March 12: U.S. dollar retreats versus Japanese yen on renewed risk....
Market Review - 11/03/2014 21:12GMT
U.S. dollar retreats versus Japanese yen on renewed risk aversion
U.S. dollar remained little changed against the euro and British pound on Tuesday and moved sideways versus the yen in light trade after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold and gave no sign that further easing is on the way. However, it later retreated against the Japanese yen on renewed risk aversion due to the weakness in U.S. equities. U.S. Dow Jones index closed down by 67 points to 16351.
The Bank of Japan maintained its pledge to expand the monetary base at a pace of 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen per year. The central bank also kept the view that economic growth and inflation are proceeding in line with forecasts.
BoJ's Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke in press conference after rate decision and said 'sales tax hike unlikely to cause 1997-style recession; economy near full employment, pushing up wages, prices; no change in my view on price outlook; capex to continue to rise moderately as trend; positive economic cycle intact due to firm domestic demand; Japan economy to grow above potential rate as trend in fiscal year 2014 and 2015; core CPI likely to hit 2% around early 2015; Japan economy on steady track towards 2% price goal.'
During the day, although euro retreated after meeting renewed selling at 1.3879 in Australia and dropped to a session low of 1.3834 in European morning due to comments from European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio who said that markets had missed some parts of its message on forward guidance last week. Short-covering lifted price from there and price later rebounded to 1.3875 in New York morning before easing.
ECB's Vice President Vitor Constancio said 'policy stance does not mean we are on hold in terms policy regardless of development of situation; forward guidance was made more precise on March 6 in relation to slack in economy; we have tools on the table, including rate cuts or QE; we are on hold in terms of policy regardless of the developments of the situation.'
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar moved in a narrow range on Tuesday due to thin market condition, despite 1-tick rise above Monday's high of 103.41 to 103.42 in Asia, price traded sideways in Europe and then dropped to 103.03 in New York morning. Meanwhile, euro and sterling weakened from 143.44 to 142.84 and from 172.11 to 171.37 before stabilising as market sentiment remained fragile.
Cable retreated after a brief jump to 1.6653 shortly after European open and dropped below Monday's low at 1.6622 after data showed that U.K. manufacturing output rose more than expected in January, but bad weather hampered the broader measure of industrial output. Later, price fell to a session low of 1.6596 after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney indicated that there is leeway for the bank to leave rates on hold for longer before short-covering lifted price to 1.6647 in New York morning.
According to the Office for National Statistics, U.K. manufacturing production rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for a 0.3% gain, while December's figure was revised up to a 0.4% increase from a previously reported gain of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, manufacturing production rose 3.3%, up from 1.4% in December. A separate report showed U.K. industrial output rose 0.1% in January, slowing sharply after a 0.5% increase in December and was up 2.9% from a year earlier.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Tuesday during testimony on the inflation outlook to parliament's Treasury Select Committee that there was a range of views among the bank’s monetary policy committee members on the amount of spare capacity in the U.K. economy. He also said it was not unreasonable to think that interest rates may rise to 2.0% to 2.5% over the next three years. Carney also reiterated that when rate increases do come they will be gradual.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer confidence, home loans, Japan tertiary industry index, BSI large all industry, BSI large manufacturing, domestic CGPI, consumer confidence, EU industrial production.