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AceTraderFx Jan 30: Yen rises to a 7-week high on risk aversion after Fed cuts bond..
Market Review - 29/01/2014 21:54GMT
Yen rises to a 7-week high on risk aversion after Fed cuts bond buying to 65B
Although U.S. dollar rose initially above Wednesday's high of 103.26 to 103.45 against the Japanese yen in Australia, active cross-buying of yen pressured capped intra-day gain there and price later tumbled to 101.99 in New York morning as concerns over global emerging markets lingered ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy statement. Later, the greenback dropped to a session low of 101.85 on renewed risk aversion due to the selloff in U.S. stock market after Fed kept interest rate unchanged n reduced bond buying to $65B as widely expected.
The Fed announced a further $10 billion reduction in its monthly bond buying to $65 billion as widely expected as it stuck to plans to wind down its extraordinary stimulus. The Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 189.77 points (1.19%) to 15738.79, 18.3 points (1.02%) to 1774.2, and 46.53 points (1.14%) to 4051.43 respectively.
The single currency swung widely on Wednesday as despite rebounding from Asian low at 1.3648 to 1.3684 in European morning due to unexpected rise in Germany's Gfk consumer climate going into February, cross-selling of euro pressured price lower from there and euro tanked to a session low of 1.3603 versus dollar after European Central Bank council member Christian Noyer said 'any rise in the currency's exchange rate would be negative.' Later, the single currency rebounded strongly in New York morning to 1.3677 on short-covering and then stabilized.
On the data front, Germany's Gfk consumer climate rose to its highest level since August 2007 to 8.2, from 7.7 in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 7.6.
Although cable traded sideways in Asia after finding support at 1.6561 in Australia, price rebounded to 1.6607 in tandem with euro in European morning but only to drop to 1.6526 in part due to renewed cross-selling of sterling versus euro in New York morning before recovering. Eur/gbp cross dropped briefly below Tuesday's low at 0.8223 to 0.8220 in Wednesday's New York morning and then recovered.
The New Zealand dollar nose-dived to 0.8177 after RBNZ kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. RBNZ said expects to start returning rates to more normal levels soon n will raise rates as needed to keep inflation near 2%. RBNZ said scale, speed of rate rises will depend on future data; high NZ dollar offsetting inflation but current levels unsustainable in long run; price pressures rising over next two years; housing market appears to be moderating; expects GDP to continue around 3.5% over coming year; sees uncertainty about stimulus with drawal by major economies, EM economies affected.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan retail sales, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany unemployment rate, U.K mortgage approvals, EU business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. annual GDP, PCE core, personal consumption, jobless claims and pending home sales.
AceTraderFx Jan 30: Daily Outlook on Minor USD/CAD
DAILY USD/CAD OUTLOOK - 1.1175
29 Jan 2014 23:05GMT
Usd's rebound fm 1.1103 in NY signals pullback fm
Weed's fresh 4-1/2 year top at 1.1187 has ended n
LT uptrend shud resume to 1.1245/50.
Venture buying for this move n only below 1.1103
confirms temp. top is made, risks 1.1078, 1.1031/35
STRATEGY : Buy at market
AceTraderFx Jan 30 : Daily Technical Outlook on Major EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
30 Jan 2014 01:01GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.3659
55 HR EMA
1.3661
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
50
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with mild upside bias
Resistance
1.3740 - Last Fri's high
1.3716 - Mon's high
1.3688 - Tue's high
Support
1.3603 - Y'day's low
1.3584 - Last Wed's high, now sup
1.3508 - Jan 20 low
. EUR/USD - 1.3662 ... The single currency went through a 'roller-coaster'
session on Wed. Despite a brief bounce to 1.3685 in Europe, euro retreated after
failing to penetrate previous res area at 1.3686/89 n then tumbled to session
low of 1.3603 in NY morning b4 rebounding to 1.3677 ahead of FOMC.
. Despite y'day's brief breach of indicated sup at 1.3625 to 1.3603, subse
quent bounce to 1.3677 suggests further 'choppy' consolidation abv last Mon's 7-
week trough at 1.3508 wud be seen n as long as said y'day's low holds, upside
bias still remains. However, a firm breach of 1.3686/89 is needed to signal the
pullback fm last Fri's high at 1.3740 has ended there n extend upmove to 1.3716
(Mon's high), abv suggesst upmove fm 1.3508 has resumed n yield re-test of 1.37
40 (Fri's high), abv wud bring subsequent headway to 1.3812/33, break confirms
correction fm Dec's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has indeed ended n yield re-test of
said res next week.
. In view of abv analysis, buying euro on dips in anticipation of another
rebound is cautiously favoured. On the downside, only a daily close below 1.3584
(last Wed's high, now sup) signals recovery fm 1.3508 is over, 1.3530, 1.3508.
AceTraderFx Feb 4: U.S. dollar tumbles versus Japanese yen after weak US ISM....
Market Review - 03/02/2014 18:16GMT
U.S. dollar tumbles versus Japanese yen after weak US ISM manufacturing data
The greenback tumbled against the Japanese yen after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM manufacturing index which dropped to 51.3 in January versus economists' forecast of 56.0 and 56.5 in December. Dollar dropped from 102.41 to as low at 100.77 in New York before stabilizing.
Despite euro's early brief breach of last Friday's low of 1.3479 to a fresh 2-month low at 1.3477, short-covering lifted price and the single currency rebounded briefly to 1.3523 after the release of weak U.S. ISM MFG data and later rose to 1.3536 in thin New York session due to the sell-off in global stock markets.
Dow Jones index nose-dived by more than 300 points whilst UK's FTSE, Germany's DAX and France's CAC closed down by 0.8%, 1.3% and 1.4% respectively. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX tumbled by 2.5% and 1.8% respectively.
The British pound dropped after the release of U.K. Jan manufacturing PMI which came in lower-than-expected at 56.7, previous reading downwardly revised to 57.2. Cable fell sharply fm 1.6449 to 1.6290.
In other news, U.S. Treasury's Lew says "congress should act quickly; unnecessary delays or political posturing could trigger a crisis; U.S. would start missing payments on its obligations 'very soon' after extraordinary measures exhausted; once extraordinary measures exhausted, U.S. cash balance to decline faster than it would at other times of year; administration would exhaust extraordinary measures by end of Feb if debt ceiling not raised."
ECB's Constancio says "bank area front loading preparations for comprehensive assessment; banks with capital shortfall in stress test baseline scenario will have to raise capital in nearer term; capital shortfall from adverse scenario can be dealt with over more extended period."
Tuesdaywill release of Eurozone PPI, U.S. redbook retail sales, factory orders and durable goods.
AceTraderFx Feb 4: Intra-day Market Outlook on Major USD/JPY
Intra-day Recommendations Major: USD/JPY
04 Feb 2014 02:13 GMT
INTRA-DAY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 101.35
Although US Dollar has continued to edge higher in Asia after yesterday's sell-off to a 2-1/2 month low at 100.77 in NY, as this move looks corrective, reckon 101.44 would limit upside and daily bearishness remains for another decline later.
AceTraderFx Feb 4: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 1.2205
04 Feb 2014 06:28GMT
Despite y'day's rise to 12250, intra-day gains in
Asian currencies suggests consolidation below Dec's
5-year peak at 12275 wud continue.
Exit prev. long at 12210 as below 1.2190 wud risk
stronger retracement to 12165/70 later this week.
STRATEGY : Exit long
POSITION : Long at 12210
RES : 12250/12275/12300
SUP : 12190/12165/12140
AceTraderFx Feb 4: Daily Technical Market Outlook on Major USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
04 Feb 2014 00:14GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Falling
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
101.47
55 HR EMA
101.91
Trend Hourly Chart
Falling
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
36
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent decline
Resistance
102.41 - Last Fri's NY high
102.14 - Y'day's NY high
101.77 - Last Mon's low, now res
Support
100.77 - Y'day's NY low
100.62 - Sep 11 2013 high
100.30 - Equality proj. of 104.92-101.77 fm 103.45
. USD/JPY - 101.18... Despite dlr's recovery fm 101.98 (NZ) to 102.41 in
Asia on Mon, broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion pressured price below
last Mon's 7-week low at 101.77 to 101.67 in Europe. Later, dlr tumbled to 100.
77 in NY after release of disappointing U.S. ISM manuf. report b4 recovering.
. Looking at the daily chart, y'day's sharp selloff below 101.77 to 100.77
confirms decline fm Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45 to retrace intermediate MT rise
fm 95.81 (Aug low in 2013) has resumed n despite subsequent recovery, as price
is still trading below both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting bias for dlr remains
to the downside, a breach of said sup shud send dlr lower to next downside obj.
at 100.30, being equality projection of intermediate fall fm 104.92-101.77 mea-
sured fm 103.45, however, a daily close below there is needed to retain bearish
prospect of further losses twd 99.60 (50% r fm 93.75) later this week.
. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day recovery in anticipation
of aforesaid fall is favoured n only abv 102.14 (y'day's NY morning high) wud
indicate a temporary low is made n may risk stronger retracement to 102.41,
being y'day's n as well as last Fri's NY high, b4 down.
AceTraderFx Feb 5: U.S. dollar rises versus Japanese yen as stock markets rebound
Market Review - 04/02/2014 18:25GMT
U.S. dollar rises versus Japanese yen as stock markets rebound
U.S. dollar fell initially against the Japanese yen to a fresh 10-week low at 100.76 in Asia as Nikkei-225 plunged by more than 4%, however, investors bought back U.S. dollar as global stock markets pared most of early losses.
Britain's FTSE 100 n Germany's DAX closed down by 0.2% n 0.6% respectively whilst France's CAC-40 closed up by 0.3%. Dow Jones index traded in +ve territory and rose by around 87 points to 15460 in NY midday. U.S. dollar rebounded strongly to 101.67 in New York.
The single currency traded inside a relatively narrow range of 1.3494-1.3539 as focus was on other currency pairs. The British pound rallied against the U.S. dollar from 1.6257 to 1.6353 after the release of much stronger-than-expected UK construction PMI.
The Australian dollar surged from 0.8730 to 0.8943, more than 2%, on Tuesday after Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped its easing bias toward interest rates and toned down its long-term call for the currency to weaken. New Zealand also rallied strongly from 0.8052 to as high as 0.8227.
In other news, Fed's Evan said there is uncertainty about sustainable rate of unemployment; believe 5-5.25% is attainable; a strongly growing economy will address many of the problems in the job market; Fed will eventually allow assets to roll off balance sheet during exit from super-easy policy; Fed's balance sheet will eventually be well south of $4 trln, but will be bigger than pre-crisis; Yellen will continue to improve Fed's communications, transparency; current pace of taper is a 'reasonable', 'modest' pace; took longer than expected for QE3 to kick in to jump start.
Wednesdaywill see the release of Germany's, Britain's and Eurozone PMI respectively; Eurozone retail sales; U.S. ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing data.
AceTraderFx Feb 5: Daily Market Outlook on Major EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3520
05 Feb 2014 01:06 GMT
The single currency rebounds from Monday's low at 1.3477 to 1.3539 on Tuesday suggests choppy trading would be seen but as long as resistance at 1.3574 holds.
Daily bearishness remains for another sell-off later this week, breach of said support would indicate decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has once again resumed and then further weakness to 1.3455 and 1.3410/20 would follow.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3603/09 would shift risk to upside instead for stronger retracement to 1.3640/50 and possibly 1.3685/88.
AceTraderFx Feb 6: U.S. dollar rebounds as global stock markets stabilise
Market Review- 05/02/2014 18:33GMT
U.S. dollar rebounds as global stock markets stabilise
The greenback fell from Asian high at 101.77 to 100.77/80 in New York morning against the Japanese yen after the release of slightly less-than-expected U.S. ADP employment data, however, the pair jumped to 101.63 after the release of stronger-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing PMI data which came in at 54.0 versus economists' forecast of 53.7 and well above previous reading of 53.0.
Euro fluctuated wildly on Wednesday. Despite the brief bounce from European low at 1.3499 to 1.3555 in New York morning after the release of less-than-expected US ADP employment, the single currency dropped swiftly to 1.3504 before trading sideways later in the day.
On the data front, eurozone retail sales data which came in at -1.6% m/m n -1.0% y/y respectively versus economists' forecast of -0.7% m/m n 1.5% y/y with downwardly revised 0.9% m/m n 1.3% y/y increase in November.
The British pound weakened to a fresh 6-week low of 1.6252 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.K. services PMI which came in at 58.3 in January versus previous reading of 58.8 in December, however, cable rebounded to around 1.6333 on short-covering in New York.
In other news, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser warned of looming communications problems if the central bank keeps buying assets while, as he expects, the U.S. unemployment rate falls below 6.5% some time in the first half of 2014, from the current 6.7%. Plosser said 'the U.S. Federal Reserve should wind down its bond purchases faster than planned and end it before mid-year.'
Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said the year had begun with some momentum, despite the recent drop in stock markets, and further reductions in the pace of central bank asset purchases would be appropriate as long as the economy remained on track. Lockhart said 'the U.S. Federal Reserve will probably keep steadily dialing back its asset purchases and wind them down completely by late 2014 but should be patient on raising interest rates.'