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AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Market Outlook on Major – USD/EUR
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3667
Update Time: 11 Feb 2014 01:40 GMT
Euro's intra-day rally above yesterday's high at 1.3652 to 1.3678 suggests near term rise from last Monday's trough at 1.3477 to retrace decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 remains in progress and further gain to 1.3685/88, then 1.3716 would be seen, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price well below resistance at 1.3740 and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only below 1.3576 would indicate a temporary top has been made and bring stronger correction towards 1.3552.
AceTraderFX Feb 11: Daily market Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2692
11 Feb 2014 06:20GMT
Usd's rebound from Fri's 3-wk low at 1.2662 to 1.2709
yesterday signals recent fall has made a temp. low,
as long as 1.2719 holds, downside bias remains.
Sell again n only a daily close above 1.2719 risks
correction toward 1.2742/43. Below 1.2662, 1.2645/50.
AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
11 Feb 2014 00:43GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8973
55 HR EMA
0.8987
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
39
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
0.9082 - last Mon's high
0.9064 - last Thur's high
0.9022 - last Fri's high
Support
0.8960 - last Fri's n y'day's low
0.8936 - Jan 29 NY morning low
0.8904 - Jan 24 low
. USD/CHF - 0.8967... Despite dlr's initial bounce to 0.8998 in NZ on Mon, broad-based softness in greenback after last Fri's downbeat U.S. non-farm pay-roll report kept price under pressure n dlr dropped to 0.8960 (also Fri's low)in European morning b4 moving sideways in thin NY session.
. Looking at the daily picture, y'day's re-test of sup 0.8960 suggests
recovery fm 0.8904 (Jan 24 trough) has ended at 0.9082 last Mon n consolidation with downside bias wud be seen for near term decline fm Jan's peak at 0.9156 to resume n yield re-test of aforesaid low, break extend weakness twds 0.8883, then 0.8860.
However, Dec's 2-year trough at 0.8800 wud remain intact n yield rebound
later this week. On the upside, only 0.9064 wud abort bearish view on the buck n bring gain to 0.9082, break there wud yield stronger retrace. to 0.9133/34.
. Today, selling dlr on intra-day recovery in anticipation of weakness to
0.8925 is favoured n only abv last Fri's high of 0.9022 wud signal further
'gyrations' inside recent established range of 0.8904-0.9082 wud continue n may yield another rise.
However, said upper lvl wud remain intact today n bring another fall later.
AceTraderFX Feb 12: Dollar trades mixed after Fed's Chair Yellen remarks
Market Review- 11/02/2014 20:51GMT
Dollar trades mixed after Fed's Chair Yellen remarks
Dollar chopped around against other major currencies after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen remarks on Tuesday. She said that U.S. economy are far from recovered and expects there to be 'a great deal of continuity' in the central bank's policies.
Fed's Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that 'pickup in economic activity has fuelled further progress in jobs market but labor market recovery far from complete; number of long-term unemployed, unemployed underscore importance of considering more than jobless rate when evaluating health of labor market; some of recent softness in inflation likely reflects transitory factors, cites oil and non-oil imports; FOMC believes at this stage recent volatility in global financial markets does not pose substantial risks to U.S. economic outlook; expects "great deal of continuity" in FOCM's approach to monetary policy, strongly supports current policy strategy; likely to reduce pace of asset purchases in further measured steps if labor market conditions, inflation continue to improve; crossing policy thresholds would not prompt automatic rate hike but would indicate it appropriate to consider whether broader economic outlook justified a hike; committed to helping return economy to full employment and ensuring inflation not persistently above or below 2%; Fed expects to report results from stress tests of largest 30 bank holding companies in March.'
During the day, although the single currency traded sideways in quiet Australian morning, price jumped at Asian open on dollar's broad-based weakness (caused mainly by rally in AUD) and rose to session high at 1.3678 after tripping stops above Monday's high at 1.3652. Later, euro rose marginally higher to 1.3683 in European morning but lack of follow-through buying pushed price back down to 1.3663 and further to 1.3629 in New York morning after Fed's Chairwoman Janet Yellen remarks before staging another rebound to 1.3680.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback ratcheted higher after finding support at 102.08 in Asia and rose briefly to above Monday's high of 102.65 to 102.67 after Fed's Chairwoman Janet Yellen remarks, price swiftly tanked to 102.15 on renewed cross buying of yen climbing back to 102.56 n later rising marginally to 102.70 in New York afternoon session.
Cable rose above Monday's high of 1.6428 to 1.6434 in tandem with euro in Asia on Tuesday but lack of follow-through buying pressured price back down to 1.6492 in European morning, however, active cross buying of sterling lifted price from there and the British pound ratcheted higher against the dollar to 1.6471 in New York morning before dropping briefly after Fed's Chairwoman Janet Yellen remarks. Later, price rose further to 1.6488 before easing in New York afternoon.
In other news, Fed's Plosser says 'winter weather unusually disruptive, had negative impact on latest jobs data; winter weather making it difficult to asses underlying economic trends, could be months before a " better read" on U.S. economy; reiterates call for faster scaling back of Fed's asset purchases to reflect strengthening economy; New Fed Chair Janet Yellen delight to work with, capable and competent; anticipates some level of continuity from Bernanke period; easier to lower than raise interest rates history shows always pretty late in raising rates; central bank needs to communicate better how it will react to economic data as it meets thresholds for inflation and unemployment; harsh winter weather leaves him skeptical of current economic data, has not changed economic outlook for 2014; has opened door with communication thru forward guidance but has not perfected it yet; concern that Fed will resist raising interest rates for too long and be forced to chase financial markets.'
AceTraderFX Feb 12: Daily Market Outlook for Major – EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3632
Update Time: 12 Feb 2014 00:53 GMT
Despite yesterday's initial resumption of recent upmove from 1.3477 to 1.3683, subsequent retreat to 1.3630 in New York afternoon and then lower to 1.3627 in Asia today suggests a temporary top has possibly been made there and a correction to 1.3605/09 is likely to be seen, however, as broad outlook remains consolidated, reckon support at 1.3576 would hold and bring another rebound later today.
On the upside, only above 1.3683 would revive bullishness for further gain to 1.3716/20 but daily res at 1.3740 should limit upside.
AceTraderFX Feb 13: The single currency weakens after ECB official comments
Market Review- 12/02/2014 21:03GMT
The single currency weakens after ECB official comments
The euro fell sharply against the dollar on Wednesday after a senior European Central Bank official said the bank is seriously considering negative deposit rates. ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said that '"the status of the OMT is not changed" after German court decision; OMT is ready to be used but it is highly unlikely it would be needed at the moment; ECB is considering negative deposit rate "very seriously"; but you should not expect too much of "it"; don't see deflation in the euro zone, see inflation slowly rising back to 2%; there is a risk of another wave of bank deleveraging after the AQR.'
During the day, although euro traded sideways in Asia on Wednesday and then bounced briefly to 1.3653 in European morning, active cross-selling of euro versus yen and sterling capped intra-day gain there and the single currency later tumbled after ECB official negative deposit rate talk
before staging a stabilizing to as low as 1.3563 in New York morning before recovering.
Despite cable's brief drop from 1.6475 to 1.6425 in early European trading, the British pound rallied again the dollar to a near 2-week high of 1.6558 after the Bank of England outlined a new forward guidance policy and upgraded its forecast for economic growth this year. Later, profit-taking pressured price down to 1.6511 before another round of fresh buying lifted price higher to as high as 1.6600 in New York.
Bank of England indicated that it will keep interest rates on hold at record lows of 0.5% for at least another year, despite upgrading the U.K. economic growth forecast for 2014 to 3.4% from 2.8%. The bank outlined new forward guidance, saying that it will not raise rates until the spare capacity in the U.K. economy has been fully absorbed, which it does not see happening until 2015. BoE Governor Mark Carney said the U.K. unemployment rate has fallen much faster than the bank anticipated, and will hit the initial 7% threshold 'in the spring'. In the six months since forward guidance was implemented the U.K. unemployment rate has fallen to 7.1% from 7.8%.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar met renewed selling just below Tuesday's high of 102.71 in Australia and price fell from 102.68 to 102.42 in Asia and then further to 102.22 ahead of New York open due to active cross-buying in yen versus other currencies. Later in the day, price recovered to 102.60 in New York before trading sideways.
In other news, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said 'There is no risk of deflation in the euro zone at present and it would take "a major shock" to the bloc's economy to create such a risk.' European Commission, U.S. CFTC say made significant progress on harmonizing new rules for trading swaps. ECB's Noyer says 'euro's strength is "curious" given that Eurozone's recovery is lagging the U.S.'
Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan's domestic CGPI, U.K. RICS house price balance, Australia's employment change and unemployment rate, Germany's CPI, U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims.
AceTraderFX Feb 13: Daily Market Outlook on Minor - AUD/USD
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.8934
13 Feb 2014 01:49GMT
AUD's intra-day sell off on poor AU employment
data confirms corrective rise from Jan's 3-1/2 year
trough at 0.8660 has made a top at 0.9068 yesterday and
downside bias is seen for a retrace to 0.8907,
then 0.8864 (50% r) before prospect of rebound.
Sell on pullback with stop as indicated, above would
defer and risk gain to 0.9048 but 0.9068 would hold.
AceTraderFx Feb 13 : Daily Technical Outlook on Major - GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
13 Feb 2014 00:30GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
1.6552
55 HR EMA
1.6491
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Getting o/bot
13 HR RSI
76
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.6747 - 2011 high (Apr 28)
1.6668 - Jan's 24 high
1.6620 - Intra-day high (AUS)
Support
1.6588 - Wed's European morning high
1.6488 - Tue's NY high, now sup
1.6425 - Y'day's low
. GBP/USD - 1.6609... Although cable traded sideways in Asia n briefly
retreated fm 1.6475 to 1.6425 in European morning, release of hawkish BoE Infla-
tion report n upbeat remarks by BoE Governor Carney sent sterling surging to
1.6558, price later rallied to 1.6600 in NY n then 1.6620 in Australia today.
. Looking at the daily picture, y'day's rally abv Tue's high of 1.6488
confirms correction fm Jan's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.6668 has indeed ended earlier
at 1.6252 n as price is currently trading well abv both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, sug-
gesting upside bias remains for gain twd said Jan's high at 1.6668, break there
wud confirm MT rise fm 2013 3 year trough at 1.4814 has once again resumed n
yield further headway twd next daily obj. at 1.6747 (2011 peak in Apr). On the
downside, only below 1.648 (prev. res, now sup) wud abort present bullishness.
. Today, buying cable's on dips in anticipation of further gain twd 1.6668
is favoured but abv needed to yield further headway twd 1.6700. On the downside,
only a firm breach of sup at 1.6511 (reaction low fm 1.6558) wud dampen current
bullish scenario n shift risk to the downside for retracement twd 1.6488.
AceTraderFx Feb 14: USD drops versus euro and Japanese yen on weak........
Market Review - 13/02/2014 20:11GMT
U.S. dollar drops versus euro and Japanese yen on weak U.S. retail sales data
U.S. dollar fell against the single currency and Japanese yen after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and more-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims.
The single currency ratcheted higher on Thursday after Wed's brief but strong pullback to 1.3563. Euro rallied to as high as 1.3692 whilst U.S. dollar tumbled to 101.70 versus the Japanese yen after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales and more-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims.
The British pound continued its recent winning streak on Thursday, following Wed's release of the BoE quarterly Inflation Report upgraded Britain's economic forecast as well as lifting market's expectation of a rate hike in the 2nd quarter of 2015 together with the hawkish comments from BoE Governor Mark Carney. Price strengthened to a fresh 2-1/2 year high at 1.6675 on dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data before retreating. Sterling gained broadly esp vs the euro to 0.8180 in Asia, just abv eur/gbp's 1-year trough at 0.8168 in Jan.
Australian dollar nose-dived in Asian morning after the release of Australia's jobs growth in Jan came in at -3.7k versus market forecast of 15k whilst unemployment rose to 6.0% (highest since Jul 2003) versus forecast of 5.9%, price tanked from 0.9031 to as low as 0.8938 after the surprisingly weak jobs report and later 0.8928 before rebounding on short-covering in New York.
In other news, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said 'market participants in a key short-term funding market are not addressing the risk of destabilizing "fire sales" of collateral in the event of a default by one of the market's big players, and regulators may be forced to step in to reduce that risk; the so-called tri-party repurchase, or repo, market is at particular risk of seizing up entirely, as it did in the 2008 financial crisis, because investors in the sector are "highly vulnerable" to liquidity pressures and credit losses that could force them to sell the collateral of a defaulted counterparty.'
Friday will see the release of China's PPI and CPI, Germany's and Eurozone GDP, U.K. GDP, U.S. import and export price, industrial production, capacity utilization, University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Market outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11940
14 Feb 201401:44GMT
US Dollar fall below Jan's low at 12040 confirms
decline from 2013 peak at 12275 to retrace MT uptrend
has resumed and further weakness to 11950 is seen.
Lower short entry for this move n only a daily
close above 12085 signals temp. low IS made, 12100.