ACTIONS news, forecasts, expectations 2022 - page 97
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My God, your logic is broken again...
Read carefully and thoughtfully, no one is taking currency away from you, transfers outside the country are prohibited, which is certainly unpleasant, and resident citizens will now live for some time as in a reservation, but(everyone hopes) that this is a temporary measure, and sitting in rouble papers you will just lose on devaluation.
And no one in his right mind is buying currency right now, all sensible people have been buying currency in advance and now they will sell it gradually on the rise and by buying up all the low lying assets.
Now there are a lot of non-market measures. On the one hand they are kind of stabilizing in the moment, but if they will go on all the time, it will bring immense harm to the market and the economy, it will cause deterioration of investors' confidence, and in the future it may create an alternative black market even if it will last a long time.
Of course we don't know what degree of stupidity this will reach, but most people don't expect confiscatory measures, that would be mega-unpopular and would cause grumbling and unrest.
Short of resorting to complicated contracts, currency is for most people practically the only and easiest method of hedging against "local country risks".
Try to think in terms of logic and mathematics rather than ideological clichés and do what is good for you.
The opposite situation is also possible now, some brokers, IB and someone else have already warned that there may be a repatriation problem, it may be really unpleasant for local residents.
Hopefully, common sense will prevail, the senseless and destructive confrontation of ambitions will go away and the normal market will return.
Very .... encouraging ....
Back to Sberbank... trading was banned but we know what London is saying...
The magnitude of the spread can be estimated by picking up an empirical coefficient... and very interesting how that spread will close 😊
That's the price of the game... for some unfortunately for some fortunately...
Very .... Encouraging ....
Oh yes, I almost forgot: ALL THEN! 🤩
Back to Sberbank... trading was banned but we know what London is saying...
The magnitude of the spread can be estimated by picking up an empirical coefficient... and very interesting how that spread will close 😊
That's the price of the game... For some unfortunately for others fortunately...
On London just receipts, the shares themselves are in our NSD. In light of past events I suspect these receipts are no longer good for anything. London dandies are just panicking, trying to dump these papers to those who aren't yet in the loop.
About the decree. It turns out that in fact by this decree the president has allowed not to pay foreign debts denominated in foreign currency. In the future they may be forced to pay us in rubles for raw materials and energy resources. I do not understand why a private individual should hold dollars if you cannot buy anything with them in our country. Only if you often travel abroad.
so far at the level of rumours and versions
Russia 'very likely' to default on debt if Ukraine crisis worsens - IIF
so far at the level of rumours and versions
Russia 'very likely' to default on debt if Ukraine crisis worsens - IIF
Interesting opinion, but probably exaggerated so far, because now the debt is relatively low and reserves are large, their size according to official statistics even exceeded the debt, yesit would probably be stupid to start [international friendship and peace] if not prepared properly, HOWEVER we do not know the geographical distribution as of current date and what part of assets is actually frozen, there may be some tricks...
Now probably it is more likely to be a technical default on some corporate debts, due to inability to pay, but this too should be properly evaluated by experts, and so far we are purely from the couch...
Actually, with a real default threat the CDS should have jumped to 10-20%, and now it is still 412.48 points, in the last month of course they have grown more than 80%, but the current level gives only 6.87% implied probability of default.
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P.S. Your link does not open, I give you mine:shorturl.at/ijwO0
The original is Reuters as I understand it, but from the text of the news we see that so far it is also only the opinion of individual IIF economists.
Bloomberg, with other data, estimates now (yesterday, 28 March) the probability of default at 56% after the sanctions.
And this is already a much more crisis-prone estimate:
All in all it will be interesting... waiting...Quote: "Novatech in London is going quickly to zero. The real Novatek hasn't changed in any way in a week. The quid's capitalisation on Novatek's productive capital is heading towards zero."
Quite rightly, the companies' business has not deteriorated per se, only external conditions have deteriorated, so they can and should be bought when others are panicking to sell.
(yesterday, March 28)
are you writing to us from the future?
;)