Offtopic: Stealing Aleynikov or how arbitration is done ;-) - page 8
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Such a system is guaranteed not to work. This has been verified.
Expert_system (wiki, incomplete definition)
Theory_of_decision making (wiki)
I'll have to tell the men that the doc has already checked everything and their systems are guaranteed not to work...
Expert_system (wiki, incomplete definition)
Decision_theory (wiki)
I should tell them that doctor has already checked everything and their systems are guaranteed not to work...
So what does all this have to do with the idea that the aggregate opinion of 20 experts will give the right result?
There have already been studies on the subject of collecting aggregated opinions from hundreds of market experts, and the result was a weak negative correlation with the market, i.e. one should have done the opposite of what they advised.
So what does all this have to do with the idea that the aggregate opinion of 20 experts will give the right result?
Studies have already been done on collecting aggregated opinions from hundreds of experts on the market, and the result is a weak negative correlation with the market, i.e. we should have done the opposite of what they advised.
The simplest expert system is the summation of expert opinions using weighting coefficients.
An example of the simplest expert system (with weights and with thresholds) is the consilium. Tested, it works.
If the experiment described by you had been performed correctly, the result would be at least a weak positive correlation with the market, as long as the experts are successful.
P.S. A bit of a misunderstanding, in general, a consilium is a complex expert system, in a consilium there is expert interaction, exchange of opinions and mutual influence.
The simplest expert system, is the summation of expert opinions using weighting factors.
An example of the simplest expert system (with weights and with thresholds) is a consilium. It has been tested and it works.
A concilium works if the experts really know what they are saying. In the case of market experts, this is too strong an assumption. Statistics show that expert opinions do not correlate in any way with the market - most funds do worse than the index.
A consilium works if the experts really know what they are saying. In the case of market experts, this is too strong an assumption. Statistics show that expert opinions do not correlate with the market in any way - most funds do worse than the index.
This is what the decision statistics weighting table is for and the selection of the expert panel is for. The coefficients can be both zero and negative. In the experiment you mentioned, this was probably not the case. Well this is the simplest case of an expert system. Of course, in reality you have to do things a bit differently.
This is what the decision statistics weighting table is for and the selection of the expert panel. Coefficients can be both zero and negative. In the experiment you mentioned, this was probably not the case. Well this is the simplest case of an expert system. Of course, in reality you have to do things slightly differently.
Weights make sense if there is at least some correlation between experts and the market. And life shows that they are completely independent processes.
Weights make sense if there is any correlation between experts and the market. And life shows that they are completely independent processes.
Is this another timbo law - "There are no experts in the market"???
Wanted a raise. It was refused. Promised to move to another office where the salary was twice as high. Promised he would go to jail if he tried to do that. Quit. Got locked up.
Probably was, as he was copying files when he was already known to be gone.
If he had planned to leave in advance, he would have taken care of it beforehand (if he hadn't gone dumb during 19 years of his life :)).
Is this another law of timbo - "There are no experts in the market"?
It is the result of much empirical research in the field of portfolio investing. It is taught in the second year of any finance related programme.
It is the result of much empirical research in the field of portfolio investing. It is taught in the second year in any finance related programme.
According to you, expert analysts able to predict the market at least faintly not only do not exist, but it already "Is taught in the second year in any program having to do with finance". Holy shit. Keep on burning...