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AceTraderFx Aug 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
17 Aug 2014 22:58GMT
EUR/USD- .... News from Reuters, German Foreign Minister says 'he and Russian, Ukrainian, French foreign ministers agreed to report back to their leaders and then possibly agree Monday or Tuesday how to continue talks; the aim remains to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine.'
On its Friday closing, although euro climbed to an intra-day high of 1.3412 in New York morning after the release of a series of U.S. economic data, including NY Fed manufacturing, PPI, foreign treasury buy, industrial and manufacturing output and University of Michigan sentiment.
Selling interest below there capped euro's upside somewhat. The pair later retreated to 1.3378 in part due to active cross buying in Japanese yen versus the euro after the news.
While EUR/JPY tumbled from 137.62 to 136.77. Offers are now tipped at 1.3400-10 with stops building up above 1.3420.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.3380-75 and 1.3360-50.
Next week will see the release of U.K. rightmove house prices, China house prices, eurozone eurostat trade and U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.
New Zealand’s producer prices, RBA meeting minutes, eurozone current account, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, U.S. building permits, core CPI, housing starts, Redbook and Cleveland Fed CPI on Tuesday.
RBA’s Stevens testimony, Japan’s exports, imports and trade balance, Australia’s Westpac leading economic index, Japan’s all industry index, Germany’s producer prices, BOE’s meeting minutes and CBI trend, Canada’s wholesale trade and U.S. FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
On Thursday, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France’s Markit manufacturing and service flash PMI, Germany’s Markit manufacturing flash PMI, eurozone’s manufacturing and service flash PMI, U.K. PSNCR and retail sales, U.S. jobless claims and Markit manufacturing PMI, eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. Philly Fed business index, and existing home sales on Thursday. The 3-day annual Federal Reserve Bank symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins.
Canada’s CPI and retail sales on Friday.
AceTraderFx Aug 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
The greenback edged back to 102.44 in Tokyo morning after Fri's pretty sharp selloff fm 102.72 to 102.14 (on buying of yen due to risk aversion) as tension in Ukraine eased a little. German Foreign Minister said earlier today that 'the aim remains to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine' after holding talks with the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, n France in Berlin on Sunday.
As market sentiment remains fragile n events in Russia-Ukraine at the weekend continue to capture market focus, selling dlr on recovery is favoured but position player shud look to buy on dips as Aug's bottom at 101.51 shud continue to hold n bring rebound due to dlr's broad 'consolidative' outlook. Offers are noted at 102.50-70 with stops emerging abv 102.80, whilst bids are placed at 102.10-00 with mixture of bids n stops at 101.80-70.
On the data front, U.S. will release the NAHB housing market index at 14:00GMT with forecast to remain unchanged at 53 in Aug. Looking ahead, Federal Reserve will release their latest meeting minutes on Wed n his week's major focus wud be the annual meeting of top central bank officials n economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming fm August 21 to 23.
AceTraderFx Aug 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
19 Aug 2014 00:03GMT
NZD/USD - .... Statement from NZ FinMin Bill English said:
'NZ economy still growing robustly, outlook not changed significantly from budget;
New Zealand govt surplus seen at NZ$297 mln in 2014/15 vs NZ$372 mln in budget;
NZ has limited fiscal headroom for higher spending, tax cuts, spending restraint will remain;
NZ national govt to hold to economic/fiscal policies, tax cuts possible when room to do so;
NZ does not need tax hikes nor sharply higher govt spending in parties' election promises.'
New Zealand Treasury publishes pre-election fiscal update -
'budget surplus forecasts over next four years trimmed because of slower economic growth;
net debt peaking 26.8 pct of gdp in 14/15 (budget 26.4 pct);
slower reduction seen;
NZ net debt seen below 20 pct of gdp by 2021 (budget 2020), superannuation payments to resume then;
NZ debt management office reaffirms budget forecast of NZ$8 bln bond issuance in 2014/15;
NZ economic momentum is slowing, as terms of trade ease, growth forecasts trimmed;
NZ govt tax take expected to be slightly less than budget forecasts as growth slows;
2015 march yr GDP +3.8 pct (budget 4 pct);
reaffirms later year forecasts; inflation 2015 March yr 1.7 pct (budget 1.8 pct); 2016 at 2.4 pct (budget 2.5 pct).'
Tuesday will see the release of New Zealand's producer prices, RBA meeting minutes, eurozone current account, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, U.S. building permits, core CPI, housing starts, Redbook and Cleveland Fed CPI.
AceTraderFx Aug 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Aug 2014 07:23GMT
EUR/USD - .... News from Reuters, citing source fm the Kremlin, who says 'Russia is working on additional retaliatory measures in case western nations impose new sanctions.'
While the single currency weakened shortly after European open due to renewed broad-based buying in greenback n active cross-selling in euro vs jpy n stg. Price penetrated y'day's NY low at 1.3353 to 1.3343/44.
At present, offers are lowered to 1.3355/60 n then 1.3370-80 with stops emerging abv 1.3400. On the downside, bids are noted at 1.3335/30 n around 1.3320 with stops located just below 1.3300.
Earlier on the Asian opening, the single currency remained under pressure in Asia following yesterday's weakness due to broad-based strength in dlr in NY session after upbeat U.S. homebuilder's confidence. Price dropped fm Aust.'s high of 1.3363 to 1.3354 shortly after Asian open n then hovered near y'day's NY low at 1.3553.
Despite the near 2-week broad sideways move inside 1.3333-1.3433 range, traders are still favouring to sell the euro on intra-day rally due to ongoing expectations that monetary stimulus programs in the U.S. will wind down n the ECB will take steps to loosen policy. Offers are noted at 1.3370-80 n then 1.3400 with mixture of offers n stops located abv 1.3430. Bids fm st specs are reported at 1.3350/45 n below with stop below 1.3330, however, there has been market chatter of option barrier at 1.3300. No major data are due out except the EZ current account data at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 19 Aug 2014 00:02GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.3371
55 HR EMA
1.3376
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
37
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.3485 - July 24 high
1.3433 - Aug 08 high
1.3412 - Last Fri's high
Support
1.3348 - Last Thur's low
1.3333 - Last Wed's fresh near 9-month low
1.3295 - Nov 07 2013 low
. EUR/USD- 1.3360 ... The single currency met renewed selling below 1.3400 level on Monday n later fell to 1.3353 in NY morning due to usd's strength on gain in U.S. homebuilder confidence, however, euro moved narrowly in NY afternoon on lack of follow-through selling.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, we've taken the view euro's choppy price action fm Aug's near 9-month trough of 1.3333 is possibly unfolding into a 'bearish triangle' pattern (with a-leg top at 1.3433, b-leg trough at 1.3336 n c-leg top at 1.3416, d-leg trough at 1.3348 n e-leg top has 'possibly' ended at 1.3412 Fri), if this view is correct, then MT fall fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 shud resume later this week n bring weakness to next daily chart object. at 1.3295 n later 1.3237 (61.8% proj. of the intermediate fall fm 1.3650-1.3333 measured fm 1.3433). On the upside, only a breach of 1.3433 wud signal an upside break of 1.3333-1.3433 range has taken place instead, then risk wud shift to upside for a stronger correction twd 1.3491 (50% r of 1.3650-1.3333).
. Today, we're holding early short position for weakness twd 1.3348 1st but 1.3333 wud remain intact. Only abv 1.3433 risks gain to 1.3475 b4 down.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD
20 Aug 2014 02:39GMT
AUD/USD - ... The Aussie chopped around after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' testimony b4 the House of Standing committee ahead of Asian open, short-term specs were selling the AUD after NY close but when Stevens did not jawbone the Aussie lower, shorts covered their positions and lifted price on 0.9318.
Below were Stevens testimonies released on Reuters :
-remains view that on most metrics would be surprising if A$ remains so high
-risk of A$ fall is under appreciated
-puzzled why u.s. dollar is not higher given u.s. is recovering
- intervention on A$ part of tool kit if thought useful
-have not considered intervention useful so far
-would not want to give advance warning if did consider intervention
-economy does not need draconian fiscal tightening right now
-budget problems are in the medium term
-recent reading on unemployment was a weak one, difficult to interpret
RBA's Kent says unemployment not to fall sustainably until late 2015, early 2016
Stevens continued - A$ high in part because global capital finds Australia attractive
-has not thought about raising rates
-says expects fairly subdued result for Q2 QDP
-have not felt that intervention would work at current A$ levels
-would consider lower rates if thought it would be helpful
-but does not think interest rates the answer right now
Wednesday will see the release of RBA’s Stevens testimony, Japan’s exports, imports and trade balance, Australia’s Westpac leading economic index, Japan’s all industry index, Germany’s producer prices, BOE’s meeting minutes and CBI trend, Canada’s wholesale trade and U.S. FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3307
Update Time: 20 Aug 2014 03:53 GMT
Euro came under renewed selling pressure shortly after Asian open on Wed following yesterday's break of previous August's low at 1.3333 to a fresh 9-month trough of 1.3313 in New York morning due to upbeat U.S. housing starts data.
Although the single currency has hit an intra-day low of 1.3304 in thin Asian trading, below option barrier at 1.3300 needed to extend medium-term downtrend to 1.3270/75 later in the day. On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3333 would signal temporary low is in place and risk stronger recovery to 1.3365/75.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
USD/JPY - ... Dlr jumps in Tokyo lunch session after a brief pullback from 103.00 to 102.90 in Tokyo open, price hits a 4-1/2 month peak of 103.22 when the Nikkei climbs above to 15490, just 2 ticks below morning high of 15492.
The greenback climbed above yesterday's NY high of 102.93 on renewed cross-selling in yen n partly on a larger-than-expected Japan's current account deficit.
The WSJ reported the Finance Ministry data showed that the overall trade deficit of 964 bln was slightly smaller than the 1 tln a year ago, as an economic slowdown caused by the Apr 1 sales tax increase damped demand for imported goods.
Japan's exports rose in Jul for the first time in 3 months, but imports were unexpectedly robust, leading to a larger-than-expected deficit amid a gradual pickup in global economic growth. Exports grew 3.9% on year. Market estimates had expected outbound shipments to increase 3.4% on year. Imports increased 2.3%.
Both the govt. n the BoJ are keeping a cautious eye on exports. Since coming into office in late 2012, PM Shinzo Abe has introduced measures to stimulate business activity n push down the Japanese currency. But this hasn't translated into solid export growth.
Japan's export growth in recent months has been more subdued than that of its Asian rivals, pointing to structural changes in the economy that government policies may not be able to rectify. Once dominant in the global market, Japanese manufacturers have been increasingly losing ground. Mr. Abe's cheap yen policy, which lead to a 20% depreciation in the yen, has helped corporate profits but has so far done little to revive manufacturing investments in Japan.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 20 Aug 2014 00:29GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.6641
55 HR EMA
1.6674
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
21
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent decline
Resistance
1.6739 - Mon's high
1.6680 - Last Fri's NY low
1.6657 - Last Thur's low (now res)
Support
1.6611 - Y'day's 4-month low
1.6584 - 1.618 ext. of 1.7001-1.6812 fm 1.6890
1.6554 - Apr 04 low
. GBP/USD - 1.6720 ...Despite Mon's brief bounce to 1.6739 in NZ following BoE Carney's hawkish comments in UK Sun Times, the British pound tumbled on Tue after the release of surprise lower-than-expected U.K. CPI data. Price easily penetrated last Thur's 1.6657 trough to a fresh 4-month low at 1.6611 in NY.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's selloff confirms MT down-trend fm Jul's near 6-year peak of 1.7192 resumed n a stronger retracement of the LT uptrend fm 2009 trough at 1.3500 remains in force n as long as 1.6739 res holds, downside bias remains for further weakness to next daily minor sup at 1.6551, however, as hourly oscillators wud display minor bullish convergences on next fall, suggesting downside wud be ltd to 1.6523/10 (50% r of 1.5854-1.7192 n equality proj. of 1.7192-1.6812 fm 1.6890 respectively) n risk fm there has increased for a much-needed rebound.
. In view of current bearish scenario, selling cable again on recovery in anticipation of further weakness is the way to go. On the upside, only a breach of 1.6739 res (Mon's high) wud violate recent series of lower high n lower lows fm 1.7192 top (Jul) n risk stronger retracement to 1.6780/90.
AceTraderFx Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
21 Aug 2014 02:33GMT
USD/JPY - ..... The greenback maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo morning following yesterday's mildly hawkish FOMC minutes, price easily penetrated NY high at 103.85 at Tokyo open n climbed to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak of 103.96 as gain in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment.
As the follow-through buying from Asian traders indicates upside bias remains, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go, however, investors should stay alert ahead of the daily key res at 104.13 (Apr 4 high) as only a firm rise above there would indicate an 'upside break' of 7-month broad range of 100.76-104.13 has taken place n yield further headway twd 105.00 later this month. Bids are noted at 103.70/60 n then 103.50/45 with stpps emerging below 103.30. On the upside, offers are placed at 104.00 n with mixture of offers n stops located at 104.10-20.
Pay attention to a slew of U.S. economic data starting with weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales. Another key event is the 3-day annual Kansas City Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chair Janet Yellen & ECB Governor Mario Draghi will both speak in the event on Fri.
USD/JPY - .... U.S. dollar strengthened to a 4-1/2 month high at 103.75 versus the Japanese yen after the release of FOMC minutes. Bids are now located at 103.60-50 and more at 103.30 with stops only seen below 103.20. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 103.85-95 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 104.00 option barrier.
Thursdaywill see the release of Japan's manufacturing PMI, China's HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France's Markit manufacturing and service flash PMI, Germany's Markit manufacturing flash PMI, eurozone's manufacturing and service flash PMI, U.K. PSNCR and retail sales, U.S. jobless claims and Markit manufacturing PMI, eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. Philly Fed business index and existing home sales. The 3-day annual Federal Reserve Bank symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins on Thursday.