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AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 27 Aug 2014 00:08GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9166
55 HR EMA
0.9155
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
65
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 retreat
Resistance
0.9251 - Nov 07 (2013)
0.9202 - 80.9% proj. of 0.9024-0.9146 fm 0.9104
0.9181 - Y'day's 9-month high
Support
0.9138 - Y'day's low
0.9104 - Last Fri's low
0.9088 - Last Wed's low
. USD/CHF - 0.9178... Despite initial dlr's decline fm 0.9164 (Asia) to
0.9138 at European open due to intra-day rebound in eur/usd, renewed weakness in
euro plus rebound in eur/chf cross helped the pair ratchet higher, dlr later
climbed one tick abv Mon top to a fresh 9-month high of 0.9181 in NY.
. Let's look at the daily picture 1st, y'day's rise to 0.9181 confirms the
3-legged MT upmove fm Mar's near 2-1/2 year bottom at 0.8698 has once again
resumed n further headway to 0.9200/02 (psychological lvl n 80.9% projection of
0.9024-0.9146 measured fm 0.9104 respectively) is seen. Abv said upside targets
wud extend marginally, however, anticipated 'bearish divergences' on the hourly
indicators wud prevent strg gain n reckon price wud hold well below daily res at
0.9251 (Nov '13) n yield a much-needed correction later this week. On the down-
side, only below 0.9104 wud indicate a temporary top has been made n risk stron-
ger retracement twd 0.9058 (last Wed's low), then twds 0.9024 (Aug 15 bottom).
. Today, in view of abv analysis, one can buy dlr on dips for marginal
gain after consolidation or sell on next intra-day upmove in expectation of a
minor correction to take place. Below 0.9138 signals temp. top made, 0.9104/07.
AceTraderFx Aug 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
27 Aug 2014 08:43GMT
GBP/USD - ..... Despite a marginal breach of yesterday's low at 1.6539 to 1.6537 at Asian open, lack of follow-through selling triggered short-covering and the British pound rose to 1.6575 in early European morning. However, renewed selling emerged there and pressured the pair lower to 1.6554. Further choppy trading is likely to be seen ahead of NY open due partly to the absence of eco. data releases from UK.
Offers have now been raised to 1.6590/00 and more above at 1.6610/15 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.6520/30.
This morning trading cable was tricky on Tue as despite an initial rebound from 1.6566 to 1.6595 in Asia, renewed broad-based strength in greenback capped intra-day gain and the pound later fell in tandem with euro to 1.6540 near NY close.
Price briefly weakened to 1.6537 shortly after Asian open on renewed decline in eur/usd, however, bids above Monday's fresh 4-1/2 month low at 1.6535 lifted price.
Bids are noted at 1.6540-35 with stop below 1.6530 but demand fm real money accounts are touted near 1.6500/05. On the upside, offers are located at 1.6560/70 and more at 1.6590/00 with stop reported abv 1.6620, therefore, selling cable on intra-day recovery is the way to go. No U.K. data are due out today, so the pound shud track intra-day move in eur/usd.
AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3193
Update Time: 28 Aug 2014 00:36 GMT
Although euro's rally from yesterday's fresh near 1-year low at 1.3152 (Asia) to 1.3210 in New York signals mid-term downtrend from May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has made a temporary low there, reckon 1.3220/24 would limit upside and bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.3120/30 after consolidation.
However, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.3105 today and risk a 'much-needed' minor correction later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3220/24 would shift risk to upside for stronger retracement towards 1.3261 but resistance at 1.3296 should remain intact.
AceTraderFx Aug 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
28 Aug 2014 02:43GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Despite a recovery from 103.79 to 104.00 in NY session, dlr came under renewed selling pressure shortly after Tokyo open n briefly weakened to 103.70 as fall in Nikkei triggered broad-based buying in yen (N225 was last seen down 80 points to 15454).
Although dlr's intra-day breach of yesterday's NY low at 103.75 suggests further choppy trading below Mon's 7-month peak at 104.49 would continue, sharp fall is unlikely ahead of the release of a slew of U.S. data (U.S. Q2 GDP, PCE, jobless claims n pending home sales) in NY morning.
Therefore, trading dlr from both sides of the market is recommended.
Bids are placed at 103.70/65 n 103.55 with stops emerging just below 103.50. On the upside, offers are noted at 103.80-90 n then 104.00 with stops located above 104.10.
Japan's FinMin is to request record 25.8238 tln yen for debt servicing costs for fiscal 2015/16.
Last night despite dollar's brief bounce to 104.16 in Asian morning, selling interest below penetrated Tuesday's NY res at 104.17 capped dollar's upside and price ratcheted lower to 103.79 in New York morning before trading sideways. Offers are now tipped at 104.00-10 whilst some bids are located at 103.80-75 with some stops seen below there but buying interest is located well above 103.50 sup.
Federal Reserve said to hold open meeting on Sept 3 on final rules for liquidity ratio, margin for non-cleared swaps.
Thursdaywill see the release of Australia's HIA new home sales, building Capex and capital expenditure, Germany's unemployment rate and change, Italy's retail sales, eurozone business climate, consumer confidence and economic and industrial sentiment; U.K. CBI distributive trades; Germany's CPI and HICP, Canada's current account, U.S. PCE, GDP and pending home sales on Thursday.
AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 27 Aug 2014 23:56GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Overbought
21 HR EMA
103.92
55 HR EMA
103.94
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
46
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation n4 marginal rise
Resistance
104.88 - 1.618 times ext. of 101.07-103.15 fm 101.51
104.49 - Mon's NZ high (Reuters)
104.17 - Tue's NY high
Support
103.75 - Mon's low
103.50 - Last Fri's low
103.15 - Jul's high (30)
. USD/JPY - 103.90... The greenback remained under pressure y'day after
meeting renewed selling just below Tue's 104.17 high at Tokyo open, price then
ratcheted lower to 103.79 in NY morning n rebounding to 104.00.
. Dlr's sideways move after rising to a 7-month peak of 104.49 Mon suggests
further choppy trading below this res wud continue, however, as long as near
term pivotal sup at 103.50 (last Fri's low) holds, recent erratic upmove fm
this year's low at 100.76 (Feb) shud resume after consolidation n abv 104.17 wud
add credence to this view n yield re-test of aforesaid top, abv wud encourage
for further gain twd 104.88 (1.618 times extension of 101.07-103.15 fm 101.51)
later. Looking ahead, as early breach of Apr's 104.13 high signals an 'upside
break' of the 7-month long broad sideways consolidation fm Jan's 5-year peak at
105.45 has taken place, price is en route to re-test said 2014 high at 105.45,
abv there wud encourage for gain twd the minimum triangle breakout obj. at
107.31 in late Sep. On the downside, below 103.50 risks retrace. to 103.15.
. Today, we're holding a long position in anticipation of marginal gain abv
104.49 but 'bearish divergences' on hourly oscillators wud cap price at 104.88.
AceTraderFx Aug 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
29 Aug 2014 02:22GMT
USD/JPY- .... Dlr went through a mini 'roller-coaster' session on Thur. Although broad-based buying in yen due to renewed geopolitical tensions in Ukraine pressured price to 103.56 in Thursday's Europe, release of upbeat 2nd reading of U.S. GDP lifted price to 103.90 in NY morning but only to retreat to 103.65 in NY afternoon.
Today, traders have showed muted reaction to the early release of a slew of mixed economic reports from Japan (including unemployment rate, all household spending, CPI, industrial production and retail sales), suggesting consolidation above said yesterday's 103.56 low would continue, therefore, buying dlr on dips is still the favoured strategy.
Bids are noted at 103.60-50 with stops below 103.50, whilst offers are placed at 103.85/90 and above with stops emerging above 104.20.
Fridaywill see the release of Japan's unemployment rate, CPI, industrial output and retail sales, New Zealand's business outlook, Australia's housing credit and private sector credit, Japan's housing starts and construction orders, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy's unemployment rate, eurozone inflation and unemployment rate, U.S. PCE, personal consumption and income, Canada's GDP, producer prices and raw material prices, U.S. Chicago PMI, University of Michigan condition and expectations.
AceTraderFx Aug 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD
29 Aug 2014
GBP/USD - .... 2 pieces of news to suggest selling eur/gbp cross is the way to go after yesterday's downbeat EZ economic sentiment. Earlier on Fri, data from research firm GfK showed consumer confidence edged up in the U.K. in Aug, driven by the fast improvement of the economy during the last year.
GfK's consumer confidence index increased to +1 in August from -2 in previous month. GfK said the improvement in consumer confidence largely reflects a reassessment of the recent past by households, although people are also increasingly optimistic about the future. However, Nick Moon, MD of social research at GfK said 'There is no guarantee how long this stable position will last - a rush of good or bad economic news could set off a marked rise or fall - but things could stay like this for a while,.'
The survey also registered an increase in the consumers' will to both save and make major purchases, such as furniture or electrical goods. These results are consistent with the recent CBI Distributive Trades Survey, which showed a great majority of businesses reporting higher sales volumes, with furniture retailers ranking on top.
Reuters reported, 'Of the 142 firms surveyed in the CBI's distributive trades survey, a balance of +25% of retailers expected their overall business situation to improve over the next three months, which was the highest since May 2002.' 'The CBI added that 51% said sales in August were up on a year ago, while 14% said they were down. That gave a balance of +37%, up on July's +21% n matching Feb's 21-month high.'
Cable swung wildly in volatile session on Thursday. Although the pound rose in tandem with euro n briefly climbed above Wednesday's high at 1.6606 to 1.6615 in Europe, renewed tensions in Ukraine triggered broad-based buying in dlr and cable briefly fell to 1.6567. Later, price rebounded to 1.6599 on cross-buying of sterling vs eur & yen and then chopped inside 1.6567-1.6599 in NY session.
The failure to close above 1.6600 level after a second day testing Thursday suggests consolidation with downside bias remains and selling cable on recovery for marginal weakness below Mon's 4-1/2 is is recommended. Offers from various accounts are noted up from 1.6590 to 1.6610 and more at 1.6630-40 with stops emerging above 1.6650. On the downside, bids are placed at 1.6550-40 and then 1.6525/20 with demand from real money accounts located around 1.6500.
On the data front, U.K. will release the nationwide house prices in August at 06:00GMT. Market forecasts the reading to be unchanged at 0.1% in monthly basis but slightly lower to 10.1% from a year earlier.
AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 29 Aug 2014 00:29GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.3185
55 HR EMA
1.3190
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
49
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal fall
Resistance
1.3297 - Last Fri's high
1.3242 - Last Thur's low (now res)
1.3221 - Y'day's high
Support
1.3152 - Wed's fresh near 1-year low
1.3105 - Sep 06 low
1.3066 - 100% proj. of 1.3700-1.3333 fm 1.3433
. EUR/USD - 1.3185 ... Although euro ratcheted higher to 1.3221 on short-covering at European open on Thur, renewed selling emerged after data showed EZ economic sentiment dropped in Aug n price retreated to 1.3199. Euro tumbled to 1.3160 due to renewed tensions in Ukraine n upbeat U.S. GDP b4 recovering.
. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, y'day's strg retreat fm 1.3221 suggests correction fm Wed's near 1-year low at 1.3152 has ended there n as long as 1.3221 holds, the MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to retrace the entire MT rise fm 2012 bottom at 1.2042 shud resume after consolidation, below said sup wud extend marginally to 1.3131 (being 61.8% r proj. of 1.3296-1.3152 measured fm 1.3220), however, as hourly indicators have already displayed prominent 'bullish convergences', reckon daily sup at 1.3105 wud hold on 1st testing n bring a much-needed correction. A daily close abv 1.3221 wud signal temp. low is made, then euro wud head twd 1.3280/90 next week b4 prospect of another fall.
. Today, we're holding short in anticipation of one more decline n profit shud be taken on such a move as volatility may increase on month-end position adjustmet. Pay attention to the closely watched eurozone inflation at 09:00GMT !
AceTraderFx Sept 1: Daily Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3129
Update Time: 01 Sep 2014 01:00 GMT
Euro's intra-day breach of last Friday's fresh near 1-year low at 1.3132 after ECB's Coeure's dovish comments on Reuters Saturaday signals mid-term downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has resumed and further weakness to daily objective at 1.3105 and then 1.3060/70 would be seen before correction occurs due to 'loss of momentum'.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3160 would indicate a temporarty low has been made and risk retracement towards 1.3196 but last week top at 1.3221 should remain intact.
AceTraderFx Sept 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
01 Sep 2014 02:22GMT
EUR/USD - .... 2 pieces of euro bearish news on Reuters worth noting which had caused the single currency to open lower in NZ today.
ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure said in an essay published in Greek newspaper Ta Nea on Sat the ECB is ready to adjust its monetary policy further if needed and boost bank liquidity. Coeure said the ECB's measures so far have contributed to stability in the euro zone while its recent decisions have ensured a particularly accommodative direction in monetary policy in the single-currency bloc.
He then said "The ECB will provide additional liquidity to banks on the condition that they increase credit directed to the real economy, n it is ready to further adjust the direction of its monetary policy, if needed."
French PM Manuel Valls reiterated on Sun calls for the ECB to go "further" in tackling the problem of an overvalued euro. Speaking at a Socialist party gathering in La Rochelle, Valls said the ECB's June decision to cut interest rates was a "strong signal" but more was needed.
Euro trades at intra-day fresh near 1-year trough of 1.3122 after opening lower below Fri's 1.3132 low on weekend euro bearish news.
However, selling was not particularly heavy on this Asian Mon morning as markets in U.S. are closed for Labor Day holiday (Canada is also closed too).
Offers are noted at 1.3135/40 n more abv with stops reported abv 1.3200. Some bids are touted at 1.3110-00 with stops below there, suggesting selling euro on recovery is the way to go.
Next week will see the release of New Zealand trade data, Japan's Capex, Australia's inflation gauge, China's NBS manufacturing PMI, Japan's manufacturing PMI, China's final HSBC manufacturing PMI, Germany's detailed GDP, Swiss PMI, German, eurozone and U.K. manufacturing PMI on Monday. U.S. market will be closed for Labor Day holiday.
Australia's building approvals, current account RBA's interest rate decision and policy statement, Swiss GDP, U.K. Markit construction PMI, eurozone producer prices, U.S. construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday.
U.K. BRC shop price index, China's NBS non-manufacturing PMI, Australia's GDP, China's HSBC services PMI, German and eurozone and U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. Redbook, ISM-New York index, Canada's rate decision, U.S. factory orders, durable goods and Fed's Beige book on Wednesday.
Australia's exports, imports, trade balance and retail sales, Germany's industrial orders, Bank of England's rate decision, ECB's rate decision, U.S. ADP employment, ECB's press conference, U.S. initial jobless claims, productivity and international trade, Canada's exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMIon Thursday.
U.K. RICS housing price balance, Bank of Japan monthly economy servery and leading indicator, Germany's industrial output, Swiss CPI and industrial orders, eurozone revised GDP, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls and unemployment rate, Canada's employment change, unemployment rate, and Ivey PMIon Friday.