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AceTraderfx Jul 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
08 Jul 2014 04:43GMT
USD/JPY - BoJ Nakaso on his speech said & quote:
"Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as virtuous cycle among production, income, and expenditure has kept growth momentum intact."
"Exports will probably start to pick up gradually if not dramatically as global economy recovers."
Dlr edges higher to 101.85 after his statements, having touched a low of 101.69 in Tokyo morning session.
Earlier quoting comments by BoJ Deputy Governor Nakaso who was speaking in Tokyo to a joint luncheon of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan (ACCJ), European Business Council in Japan (EBC), and Swiss Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Japan (SCCIJ):
- we intend to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time by steadily pursuing qqe
- under qqe Japan appears to finally have embarked on path toward overcoming deflation
- strongly hope that the government will continue to implement the growth strategy unwaveringly
- with supply capacity constraints having surfaced, now is a golden opportunity to address Japan's longstanding challenge of raising growth potential
- BOJ already has an extensive range of operational instruments to exit from qqe
- past BOJ monetary policy lacked strong enough commitment to price stability
- exit policies should be designed depending on prevailing economic and inflation situation at the time
- premature to discuss the specifics of an exit from qqe at this stage
- BOJ has no intention of going beyond its mandate of achieving its price target, has no intention to monetise govt debt
- BOJ's current commitment to achieve 2 pct in two year horizon does not mean boj will end qqe in two years
- BOJ is committed to continuing with qqe as long as necessary
- BOJ will adjust policy without hesitation if judged necessary for achieving its price target
- CPI growth likely to slow temporarily especially through the summer but is likely to accelerate thereafter
- qqe raises inflation expectations, which provides room for further easing as this helps lower real interest rates
- U.S., UK and Euro area economies are on recovery trend but their output gaps remain negative
- Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as virtuous cycle among production, income, and expenditure has kept growth momentum intact
AceTraderFx Jul 8: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 Jul 2014 00:00GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turn up
21 HR EMA
0.8938
55 HR EMA
0.8935
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
41
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Initial weakness b4 one more rise
Resistance
0.9013 - Jun 16 high
0.8975 - Jun 20 high
0.8959 - Y'day's high
Support
0.8899 - Last Wed's high (now sup)
0.8857 - Last Tue's low
0.8821 - May 06 low
. USD/CHF - 0.8934... The greenback traded with a firm bias in Asia y'day n rose to session high at 0.8959 at European open, however, dlr pared intra-day gains n retreated to 0.8938 in European morning, then marginally lower to 0.8930 in NY due to dlr's broad-based retreat b4 stabilizing ahead of NY close.
. Looking at the daily chart, dlr's strg rebound fm last Tue's 6-week low at 0.8857 suggests the early fall fm Jun's 3-1/2 month high at 0.9037 has ended there n consolidation with upside bias wud be seen. A daily close abv 0.8968/75, this is the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of aforesaid decline n Jun 20 top respectively, wud add credence to this view n extend gain twds res 0.9013 (Jun 16 peak). However, reckon said 0.9037 res shud hold this week n yield retreat later. On the downside, only below 0.8857 wud revive bearishness of a stronger retracement of upmove fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 twds 0.8821/27 (May 06 low n 61.8% r of 0.8698-0.9037 respectively).
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are buying dlr on intra-day decline in
anticipation for one more rise to 0.8895 n only below 0.8899 (prev. res, now
sup) wud abort n risk weakness to 0.8873 but sup at 0.8857 shud remain intact.
AceTraderFx Jul 9: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
09 Jul 2014 01:53GMT
USD/JPY - ... Yesterday's cross-inspired weakness knocked price lower to 101.49 in NY and then 101.45 at Tokyo open due to the decline in Nikkei-225 index following the sell off in global stock markets on Tuesday. Offers are now tipped at 101.65-70 and more at 101.80-85.
On the downside, some bids are located at 101.40 and 101.30-25.
Trading is likely to be thin in Asia as investors are waiting for the release of Fed's minutes at 18:00GMT later today.
Tuesday's news worth mentioning, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said inflation may run below the central bank's target, while his Richmond counterpart Jeffrey Lacker curbed his previous expectation for more robust growth.
09 Jul 2014 01:30GMT
In other news, comments by Chinese President Xi Jinping who said as he opened annual talks between U.S. & China confrontation between China, U.S. would be a disaster.
Preisent Xi said China, U.S. should speed up talks on bilateral investment treat; China, U.S. must respect each other's sovereignty & territorial integrity.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said moving to market-determined FX rate is crucial step for China; Sees a strengthening recovery in U.S.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
UK shop price index, Japan machinery orders, Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, China CPI, PPI, Canada housing starts and U.S. FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx Jul 10: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
10 Jul 2014 02:12GMT
USD/JPY- ... Despite yesterday's brief bounce to 101.85 after the release of FOMC minutes, the greenback subsequently retreated and ratcheted lower to 101.51 in Asia.
Offers are now tipped at 101.75-80 and more at 101.95-00 with stops seen above 102.00.
On the downside, bids are located at 101.30-25 with stops seen below 101.20 but demand from various accounts is located above 101.00 level.
On the data front, Japan's machinery core orders fell by 19.5% from April, the most on record in May since 1987, suggesting that companies remain cautious about deploying record cash reserves into investment.
Bloomberg news reported earlier that Bank of Japan officials see buying exchange-traded funds based on the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 as a future option to boost the impact of unprecedented easing and encourage companies to deploy cash for investment, according to people familiar with the central bank's discussions.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand PMI, Japan domestic CGPI, machinery orders, consumer confidence, Australia employment, China exports, imports, trade balance, France CPI, industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK RICS housing survey, trade balance, BoE rate decision, Canada housing price index, U.S. jobless claims, wholesale sales and wholesale inventories.
AceTraderFx Jul 11: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
11 Jul 2014 01:57GMT
USD/JPY - ... Japan FinMin Aso said "Japan long-term interest rates at 0.54% are abnormal".
The greenback remained under pressure on Thursday and intra-day decline gathered momentum after penetrating 101.45 support to a fresh 7-week low at 101.07 due to active cross buying in jpy on renewed risk aversion before staging a recovery to 101.39 in Asian morning.
Offers are now tipped at 101.45-50 n more at 101.60 with stops only seen above 101.70.
On the downside, some bids are located at 101.15-10 with mixture of bids n stops seen at 101.00.
Wraping up from last night, Fed's George said 'concerned about effects of higher food prices on lower-income households; formulas that guide interest rate changes point to liftoff from 0 as early as this year; anxious to work twd process of policy normalization.'
The single currency Euro had finally gained some respite in NY session after intra-day sharp retreat from 1.3650 to 1.3589 in NY morning on risk aversion due to growing concerns over Portuguese bank BES.
Offers were now seen at 1.3615/20 n more above at 1.3630/40 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids were noted at 1.3580/90, suggesting selling on any recovery was still the favored strategy.
Data to be released on Friday:
Australia new home loans, Germany CPI, HICP, WPI, France current account, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and U.S. Fed budget.
AceTraderFx Jul 14: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
14 Jul 2014 02:26GMT
USD/JPY - ... The greenback edged higher in Asia on Mon and briefly penetrated Fri's high of 101.39 to 101.41 due to broad-based softness in yen as the BoJ kicked off its latest two-day monetary policy meeting today with the board expected to stand pat.
Offers from various accounts are noted at 101.50-60 with mixture of offers and stops emerging above 101.80.
On the downside, bids are placed at 101.30/25 and then 101.15/10 with stops located just below 101.00.
Earlier Japan PM Abe said that he wanted a summit with China at Nov Apec meeting.
Data to be released next week:
Japan capacity utilization, industrial output and EU industrial production on Monday.
Australia RBA minutes, Japan BoJ rate decision, Swiss PPI, UK BRC retail sales, CPI, PPI, PPI input, PPI output, RPI, core RPI, Italy CPI, Germany ZEW current conditions, economic sentiment, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, Redbook retail sales and business inventories on Tuesday.
New Zealand CPI, China GDP, retail sales, industrial output, Italy trade balance, UK ILO unemployment, claimant count, Swiss ZEW sentiment, U.S. PPI, core PPI, net L-T flows, capacity utilization, industrial output, NAHB housing market index, Fed beige book and Canada BoC rate decision on Wednesday.
Australia NAB business confidence, EU CPI, U.S. building permits, housing starts and jobless claims on Thursday.
EU current account, Canada CPI, core CPI and U.S. U. of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jul 14: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 13 Jul 2014 23:45GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
101.33
55 HR EMA
101.39
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
56
14 HR DMI
0
Daily Analysis
Marginal fall b4 recovery
Resistance
102.80 - Jun 4 high
102.27 - Jun 18 high
101.85 - Last Wed's high (NY)
Support
101.07 - Last Thur's low
100.76 - Feb 04 low
100.22 - 2 times extn of 102.27-101.45 fm 101.85
. USD/JPY - 101.37... Despite last week's initial sideways trading, failure to re-test previous Jul's 102.27 high n decline in the Nikkei due to retreat in the Dow & S&P 500 fm their record highs triggered broad-based buying of yen, the pair fell to a 6-week trough of 101.07 on Thur b4 staging as minor recovery.
. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, although dlr's break of Jun's 101.24
low confirms erratic fall fm Jun's peak at 102.80 has resumed n further weakness is likely after consolidation, as stated in the previous updates, we are still holding on to our broad consolidative outlook that dlr shud continue to trade inside the 6-month long broad range of 105.45-100.76, current bullish convergences on the hourly oscillators shud keep price well abv the key sup area at 100.76/81 n yield a 'much-needed' rebound later this this week. On the upside, a daily close abv 101.85 wud be the 1st signal low has been formed, then further gain twd 102.27 wud follow. A breach of 2014 trough at 100.76 wud extend MT fall fm 105.45 to 100.00, then later twd 99.60 (50% r of 93.75-105.45).
. Today, we're trading dlr on both sides of the market n will sell on intra
-day recovery or buy on next decline twd 100.76.
AceTraderFx Jul 15: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views - AUD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
15 Jul 2014 01:29GMT
AUD/USD - Statement just released by RBA minutes of its July 1st monetary policy meeting, quote :
1 on present indications, prudent to have period of steady rates;
2 repeats A$ high by historical standards, particularly given drop in commodity prices;
3 A$ offering less assistance to the economy than it might otherwise;
4 board noted NZD and CAD also high, were most surprised by low level of US dollar;
5 members agreed was difficult to judge if low rates would offset mining, fiscal drag;
6 further substantial falls in mining investment expected, public demand to be weak;
7 economic growth seen a little below trend over coming year, inflation in target band;
8 significant amount of monetary stimulus already in place to support economy;
9 RBA saw some improvement in labour market, only moderate jobs growth expected;
10 household consumption had eased, liaison suggested retail sales little changed from May to June;
11 strong growth in home building expected, non-mining investment rising gradually;
12 labour costs subdued, members noted productivity had improved across economy.
AUD briefly dipped to intra-day low of 0.9384 b4 rebounding to 0.9402 after the minutes were released as Reuters headline:
"Australia c.bank sets steady course for rates amid economy doubts" suggests no rate cut will be made any time soon.
Next RBA meeting will be on Aug 5.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia RBA minutes, Japan BoJ rate decision, Swiss PPI, UK BRC retail sales, CPI, PPI, PPI input, PPI output, RPI, core RPI, Italy CPI, Germany ZEW current conditions, economic sentiment, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, Redbook retail sales and business inventories.
AceTraderFx Jul 15: Daily Outlook on Asian exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11720
15 Jul 2014 04:18GMT
Intra-day gap-up open confirms recent fall from
June's 12105 has made a low at 11520 last Thursday
and gain to 11745 (38.2% r) and later 11770 is seen.
Turn long on dips as only below 11660 would signal
temp. top is in place, risk weakness to 11615/20.
STRATEGY : Buy at 11700
OBJECTIVE : 11770
STOP-LOSS : 11670
RES : 11740/11770/11810
SUP : 11660/11615/11585
AceTraderFx Jul 15: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 14 Jul 2014 23:58GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.8919
55 HR EMA
0.8921
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
48
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with a neutral bias
Resistance
0.9013 - Jun 16 high
0.8975 - Jun 20 high
0.8959 - Last Mon's high
Support
0.8899 - Y'day's low
0.8857 - Jul low (1st)
0.8821 - May 06 low
. USD/CHF - 0.8918.. Although the greenback traded sideways in Asia y'day n edged up to session high at 0.8932 at European open, price fell sharply to an intra-day low at 0.8899 on euro's brief rally. However, dlr pared its losses n recovered to 0.8926 in NY session b4 stabilising.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although y'day's retreat to 0.8899 suggests choppy trading below last Mon's high at 0.8959 has ended there n marginal weakness fm here can't be ruled out, as the early strg rebound fm Jul's low at 0.8857 signals the pullback fm Jun's 3-1/2 month peak at 0.9037 has possibly ended there, upside bias remains for a re-test of 0.8959. Abv wud add credence to this view n extend gain twds 0.8975 (Jun 20 peak) later this week, however, res 0.9013 (Jun 16 top) shud limit upside. On the downside, only below 0.8857 wud signal the decline fm 0.9037 has resumed instead n yield stronger retrace. of rise fm Mar's 0.8698 trough twds 0.8821 (May 06 low).
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are trading dlr on both sides of the market n will sell on intra-day recovery for one more fall or buy the greenback on next decline in an anticipation of subsequent rebound.