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AceTraderFx Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views
21 Aug 2014
EUR/USD - .... Germany services n manufacturing PMIs came in better-than-expected at 56.4 n 52.0 vs forecasts of 55.7 n 51.8 respectively.
France manufacturing PMI came in weaker-than-expected at 46.5 vs forecast of 47.8 whilst services PMI came in better-than-expected at 51.1 vs forecast of 50.0.
A piece of news extracted fm Bloomberg worth noting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide her take on the latest data on labor markets in a keynote speech on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Yellen has in speeches and congressional testimony focused on reducing slack in labor markets. She measures that with an array of indicators - such as the share of unemployed who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more - not solely on the unemployment rate, which stood at 6.2 percent last month, down from 6.7 percent at the end of 2013.
In her Jackson Hole speech, Yellen could, as the minutes did, stress job-market progress. Or she could continue to point to the slack shown on her dashboard of labor-market data, which show the long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or longer, represent 33 percent of the jobless, above the 19 percent average of 2004 to 2007.
AceTraderFx Aug 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
22 Aug 2014 02:31GMT
USD/JPY-.... Despite the release of a slew of upbeat U.S. economic figures on Thur, investors shrugged off the data n decided to take profit ahead of Fri's Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole as market anticipated that she will deliver dovish remarks to complement the hawkish FOMC minutes in order to convey to markets that even though rates will rise, monetary authorities will make sure they do so gradually. Dlr retreated after rising to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 103.96 in Asia yesterday and then briefly weakened to 103.60 in NY morning b4 climbing back to 103.95 in Tokyo morning on renewed cross-selling in yen due to increase of risk appetite (S&P 500 climbed to its intra-day all-time high of 1,991.45 n closed at record high of 1,990.15 on Thur).
As Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average is also heading for a 10th day of gains - the longest winning streak in 26 years (N225 is currently trading up 19 points to 15,605), therefore, buying dlr on dips for a re-test of daily key res at 104.13 (Apr 4 high) is the way to go, however, sharp gain abv there is unlikely to be seen as layers of selling interest on profit-taking are noted up fm 104.10 to 104.40. On the downside, bids are located at 103.70-60 n then 103.50 with stops emerging below 103.30.
Yesterday the greenback stabilised after retreating briefly to 103.60 after the release of a series of U.S. economic data, including exiting home sales, leading index, Philly Fed. Bids are now located at 103.65-60 whilst offers are tipped below Asian fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 103.96 with mixture of offers n stops seen at 104.00.
Fridaywill see the release of Canada's CPI and retail sales. Investors are reluctant to add bets ahead of a keynote speech at 14:00GMT by Fed Chair Janet Yellen who may provide her take on the latest data on labor markets at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
AceTraderFx Aug 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
EUR/USD - .... The fact that euro rose in NY session on Thur despite the release of a slew of upbeat U.S. eco. data shows market is pretty short in the single currency n euro bears are looking to book profit on dips ahead of the main event of the day - the annual economic symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The world's 2 most important central bankers are scheduled to speak later today with Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivering her speech (without Q&A) at 14:00GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak later at 18:30GMT. All in all, 33 central bankers & 9 ECB Governing Council members will attend this event which continues into Sat.
Until then, order flows plus unwinding of position will probably influence intra-day price swings. Offers are reported at 1.3285/95 with some stops building abv 1.3400. On the downside, initial bids are noted at 1.3260-50 and more below with stops below 1.3240, however, more bids are touted at 1.3230-20.
Earlier, news from Reuters in late Thur's NY session worth noting, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser told network CNBC in an interview from a central bank symposium in Jackson hole, Wyoming, that he warned against waiting too long to hike rates.
He said 'concerned that monetary policy not reacting to change in data; Fed is running a risky policy by not moving off zero bound; favors raising rates sooner and more gradually; not wise to make wages the centerpiece of monetary policy; does not think there is a significant under utilization of labor market resources.'
AceTraderFx Aug 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
25 Aug 2014 01:50GMT
EUR/USD - .... The single currency tumbled to a fresh 11-month bottom of 1.3184 as the greenback opened higher vs its major peers in NZ on Mon, however, selling quickly subsided n price staged a minor recovery to 1.3206 at Asian open.
The fact that price is trading below Fri's 1.3220 low suggests intra-day downside bias remains following a short-covering rebound to 1.3297 in Europe last Fri but bears returned in full force after Fed Chair Yellen's rather balanced speech in Jackson Hole.
Offers are tipped at 1.3220/30 n more abv n initial bias are noted at 1.3185-80, suggesting selling euro is the favoured strategy.
Pay attention to the only EZ data at 08:00GMT, Germany will release Ifo Aug business sentiment index, street forecast is looking for a lower reading of 107.0 vs previous no. at 108.0, this will show German business confidence dropped to a 13-month low, so if actual figure is lower than forecast, euro shud face further downward pressure.
On Friday closing, ECB's president Draghi said: "new ECB lending to banks will be ineffective in helping economy without government structural reforms to promote business;
if inflation drop continues, risks for price stability would increase and governing council would need to use all available tools in reaction;
drop in European inflation due to temporary factors, such as Ukraine, energy prices."
Next week will see the release of Ifo business climate, current conditions and Ifo expectations, U.S. Markit services PMI and new home sales change on Monday.
New Zealand's imports, exports and trade balance, China's leading economic index, U.S. durable goods and consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Germany's Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France's business climate and Italy's consumer confidence on Wednesday.
Australia's HIA new home sales, building Capex and capital expenditure, Germany's unemployment rate and change, Italy's retail sales, eurozone business climate, consumer confidence and economic and industrial sentiment; U.K. CBI distributive trades; Germany's CPI and HICP, Canada's current account, U.S. PCE, GDP and pending home sales on Thursday.
Japan's unemployment rate, CPI, industrial output and retail sales, New Zealand's business outlook, Australia's housing credit and private sector credit, Japan's housing starts and construction orders, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy's unemployment rate, eurozone inflation and unemployment rate, U.S. PCE, personal consumption and income, Canada's GDP, producer prices and raw material prices, U.S. Chicago PMI, University of Michigan condition and expectations on Friday.
AceTraderFx Aug 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
USD/JPY- ..... Dlr followed its recent winning streak in NZ today and 'gapped' higher above Friday's high of 104.19 to 104.49 as comments from Fed chief n BoJ governor during the Federal Reserve annual symposium further highlighted diverging monetary policies between the 2 central banks, however, offers just below 104.50 ltd intra-day gain there so far n price retreated to 104.13 in Tokyo morning.
On Fri, Fed's Chair Janet Yellen said at the Kansas City Federal Reserve annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with the observation that conditions in labor markets have outperformed Fed forecasts n that if this continues, the Fed funds target rate could rise earlier and more rapidly than expected.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the Jackson Hole gathering on Sat that the central bank may have to pursue its aggressive monetary policy easing for 'some time' to fully vanquish deflation.
As dlr's 'gap-up' open today indicates bias remains to the upside, buying dlr on dips is the way to go. Demand from various accounts is noted at 104.10-00 with mixture of bids n stops located at 103.85/80 n 103.70-60.
On the upside, offers are placed at 104.40-50 n then 104.65/70 with stops emerging just above 104.80.
Investors should pay attention to the release of Markit U.S. service PMI n new home sales at 13:45GMT n 14:00GMT respectively. Market forecasts the Service PMI in Jul to come lower at 59.5 whist new home sales to increase to 0.430 million units in Jul from 0.406 million units in previous month.
AceTraderFx Aug 25: Daily Outlook on Major USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY- 104.11
Update Time: 25 Aug 2014 07:58 GMT
The greenback's rise above April's peak at 104.13 last Friday and then to a fresh multi-month peak at 104.19 in New Zealand today signals an upside break of the 7-1/2 month broad sideways move from 105.45 9Jan) has taken place and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain 104.77, however, near term loss of momentum should cap price below said res today and yield minor correction later.
On the downside, only below 103.50 would indicate a temporary top has been formed instead and shift risk to the downside for a retracement to 103.15.
AceTraderFx Aug 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
26 Aug 2014 02:02GMT
EUR/USD - .... For 2 days in a row, Asia bore the brunt of the largest intra-day price swings. Despite meeting renewed selling in thin trading market condition ahead of Asian open on stop hunting, euro easily penetrated yesterday's 1.3183 low to a fresh 11-month trough of 1.3178, however, the single currency quickly pared intra-day loss and rebounded back to 1.3201.
Current usd's broad-based retreat vs G7 currencies in Asian morning suggests euro still has legs to move higher as Fri's CFTC report revealed euro shorts had climbed to its highest in 2 years, therefore, time is ripe for a short-covering rally to take place any time this week.
As no EZ data are due out in European morning, technical trading is expected to dominate near term price movement. Bids are noted at 1.3185-80 whilst some offers are tipped at 1.3210/20 with stops touted above there.
Last night, Ukraine Presidential spokesman said that it will hold a new parliamentary election on October 26.
Tuesdaywill see the release of New Zealand's imports, exports and trade balance, China's leading economic index, U.S. durable goods and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Aug 26: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Aug 2014 00:38GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.6575
55 HR EMA
1.6580
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
45
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal fall
Resistance
1.6680 - Last Wed's high
1.6655 - Last Wed's NY high
1.6602 - Last Thur's high
Support
1.6535 - Y'day's NZ low
1.6523 - 50% r of 1.5854-1.7192
1.6460 - Mar 24 low
. GBP/USD - 1.6570... The British pound opened lower in tandem with euro
to 1.6535 in NZ on Mon following Fri's balanced comments fm Fed Chair Yellen n
Sat's 'dovish' remarks from BOE Dep. Governor Ben Broadbent in Jackson Hole but
short-covering lifted price to 1.6599 ahead of NY open b4 retreating.
. Although cable's rebound fm said y'day's fresh 4-1/2 month trough at
1.6535 suggests a temporary low has been been made n choppy consolidation wud be
seen, as daily technical indicators are still pointing hard down, suggesting as
long as 1.6655/57 (being 38.2% r of 1.6850-1.6535 n Aug 14 low, now res respect-
ively) holds, bearishness remains for MT decline fm Jul's near 6-year peak at
1.7192 to resume n yield a re-test of said sup, below wud extend marginal weak-
ness below 1.6523 (50% r of LT intermediate rise fm 1.5854-1.7192), however,
prominent 'bullish convergences' on the hourly oscillators shud limit downside
to 1.6500/10 n yield a much-needed correction later.
. Today, selling cable on further recovery in anticipation of a resumption
of decline is still favoured, however, one may turn cautious buyer on next margi
nal fall for a rebound but reckon 1.6657 (prev. low, now res) shud cap upside.
AceTraderFx Aug 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
26 Aug 2014 09:43GMT
EUR/USD - .... News fm Reuters, Ukrainian military spokesman Lysenko said, quote:
'Ukrainian military has destroyed 12 armoured infantry carriers in Novoazovsk area using artillery n aircraft;
captured Russian soldiers were not in Ukraine by mistake, they were on a special mission.'
'attack by Russian separatists on town of Novoazovsk is continuing at this very minute, a hospital there is on fire.'
Despite euro's intra-day strong rebound from 1.3178 to 1.3214/15 at European open, the single currency came under renewed selling pressure and retreated to 1.3190 in European morning. However, price found some support there n staged a recovery.
Bids are now seen at 1.3180/85 n more below at 1.3160/70 with stops building up below there whilst offers are noted at 1.3250/60. Expect choppy trading to be seen till NY open in the absence of EZ economic data.
Earlier, Russian defence ministry said 'Russian servicemen captured in Ukraine crossed the border by mistake.'
AceTraderFx Aug 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
27 Aug 2014 01:55GMT
EUR/USD - .... The single currency continues its recent losing streak and easily penetrated o/n NY low at 1.3164 to a fresh near 1-year trough of 1.3152 after tripping stops below said yesterday low, however, bids above rumoured 1.3150 option barrier contained intra-day weakness.
We may well see a repeat of the price action seen in last 2 days in Asia, that is euro hits intra-day lows at Asian open n then stages a decent recovery into European open b4 coming off later in the day, so chasing present decline is not a good bet. Bids are noted at 1.3150 n more above daily sup at 1.3105, on the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3175/80 n more above would stop (fairly large) touted above 1.3220, suggesting selling the single currency on rally is the way to go.
Eco. data from the EZ today which may move price are Germany Gfk consumer confidence index at 06:00GMT, then French bus. confidence at 06:45GMT and then Italy's consumer confidence at 08:00GMT. No data are due out from the U.S. today.
News from last night, Russia's Utair airline said its MI-8 helicopter was shot down in South Sudan, according to preliminary information.
Three regional Federal Reserve banks, Philadelphia, Kansas city, Dallas Federal Reserve banks renewed requests to raise discount rate by 25 basis points to 1% ahead of July FOMC meeting, according to minutes on Tuesday. U.S. dollar rose broadly against major currencies in late New York.
U.S. welcomes Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire, urges parties to fully and completely comply with its terms and hopes it will be durable.
Wednesdaywill see the release of Germany's Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France's business climate and Italy's consumer confidence. Investors are waiting for eurozone inflation data on Friday.