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AceTraderFx Sept 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
01 Sep 2014 07:55GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Germany manufacturing grows at its slowest rate in 11 mths. The PMI figure came in weaker-than-expected at 51.4 vs forecast of 52.0.
Italy manufacturing slips back into contraction in August with the PMI read coming in at 49.8, lower than expectation of 50.8.
Euro pares intra-day losses in early European trading after hitting a fresh near 1-year low of 1.3119. Although range trading is seen ahead of release of a slew of EZ eco. data, offers at 1.3140/50 are likely to check present rebound. On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is reported at 1.3105/00, therefore, steep fall may is unlikely be seen n trading may quieten down after European midday as markets in U.S. & Canada are closed for Labor Day holiday today.
News from Reuters, Ukraine President Poroshenko said, 'events of past few dats show that Russia has launched a direct and open aggression against Ukraine, will forsee high-level personnel changes in armed forces after events in Ukraine last week.'
Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov said, 'Ukrainian troops must leave positions from which they can fire on civilian targets, and expects contact group talks in Minsk today to address task of agreeing to immediate ceasefire without conditions. There will be no military intervention in Ukraine from Russia and Russia will defend its economy, citizens, business in response to sanctions.'
German statistics office showed that Geman Q2 final GDP confirmed at -0.2% Q/Q, +0.8% Y/Y.
The single currency showed muted reaction to the data n traded near intra-day fresh near 1-year trough at 1.3119. Bids are noted at 1.3110-00 n around 1.3080-70, whilst offers are placed at 1.3130-40 n then 1.3150/55 with stops emerging just abv 1.3170.
AceTraderFx Sept 1:Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
WEEKLY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Sep 2014 00:05GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.6589
55 HR EMA
1.6586
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
53
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.6680 - Last Wed's high
1.6657 - Aug 14 low
1.6615 - Last Thur's high
Support
1.6535 - Last Mon's low (NZ)
1.6523 - 50% r of 1.5854-1.7192
1.6460 - Mar 24 low
. GBP/USD- 1.6593... Despite a gap-down open to a 4-1/2 month trough of 1.6535 in NZ last Mon, cable swung wildly for rest of the week. Price staged a short-covering rebound to 1.6599 on Mon b4 falling back to 1.6537 at Wed open but only to climb to a 1-week high of 1.6615 Thur, then moved sideways on Fri.
. Looking at the bigger picture, although sterling finally found respite after enduring 6 weeks of losing streak n initial choppy trading abv 1.6535 is envisaged, a daily close abv 1.6657 (prev. low) is needed to confirm MT fall fm 2014 6-year peak at 1.7192 (Jul) has finally made a temporary low, then stronger gain to 1.6680 res wud be seen, a break there wud violate the recent series of lower highs n lower lows n yield corerction twd 1.6864 (50% r of 1.7192-1.6535).
Until then, as dlr is expected to rise vs its major peers, selling the pound in anticipation of resumption of MT downtrend to 1.6523 (50% r of LT intermediate rise fm 1.5854-1.7192) is still favoured, reckon daily up at 1.6460 (Mar low) may hold on 1st testing.
. Today, intra-day weakness in eur/usd shud weigh on cable n as long as 1.6615 holds, decline twd 1.6535 is likely n only abv 1.6555/57 risks 1.6580.
AceTraderFx Sept 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
02 Sep 2014 01:49GMT
EUR/USD - .... Despite gaining a fleeting moment of respite in subdued North American session as markets in U.S. & Canada were closed for Labor Day holiday, euro bears returned shortly after Asian open as a surprise rally in the Nikkei led to intra-day rally in dlr/yen, this in turn triggered broad-based rise in the greenback.
The single currency fell from 1.3133 to a fresh near 1-year bottom of 1.3117 after penetrating Mon's 1.3119 low. The lack of a recovery suggests euro bears would test daily chart obj. 1.3105, at present, some buying interest n stops are touted above 1.3105 n below 1.3100 respectively. Offers have been lowered to 1.3130/40 with stops above 1.3150, therefore, selling euro on recovery is the way to go.
Yesterday despite staging a short-covering rebound from a fresh 1-year low at 1.3116 to 1.3146 in early European morning, the single currency met renewed selling n retreated to 1.3127 after European close in thin trading conditions as North American markets (U.S. n Canada) remained closed for Labour day holiday.
Offers are now seen at 1.3145/50 n more above at 1.3160/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3120/30, suggesting selling on recovery is still the favored strategy.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia building approvals, current account, RBA rate decision, Swiss GDP, UK construction PMI, EU PPI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing.
AceTraderFx Sept 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
02 Sep 2014 08:32GMT
GBP/USD- .... Cable has stabilised after intra-day sell off from 1.6605 (Asia) to as low as 1.6554 in European morning due initially dlr's strength at Asian open, then broad-based selling of sterling vs euro & yen.
The fact that price is unable to stage a short-covering rebound after release of a much stronger-than-expected U.K. construction PMI (Aug actual came in at 64.0 vs forecast of 61.4 & prev. reading of 62.4) suggests the no. of sterling bears is greater than the bulls. Looks like sterling bears are targeting stops below last Mon's 4-1/2 month low at 1.6535. For now, offers are tipped at 1.6585/95 n more abv with stop touted abv 1.6615. A mixture of bids n stops is reported near 1.6535-30, suggesting selling cable on recovery is the way to go.
Although sterling held well yesterday after a surprise downbeat U.K. manufacturing PMI where Aug reading dropped fm 54.8 to 52.25. We have construction PMI due out today n then the important services PMI on Wed.
The U.K. Telegraph reported a weaker outlook for the manufacturing sector has led some analysts to suggest that the best days of the U.K. recovery have now passed. Poor manufacturing data could signal the end of a hot streak for U.K. growth.
The survey pointed to a "broad slowdown" that is underway in the UK's manufacturing sector, according to Markit, who compiled the report. Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said: "It is also becoming increasingly evident that UK industry is not immune to the impacts of rising geopolitical and global market uncertainty, especially when they affect economic growth and business confidence in our largest trading partner the eurozone."
With the Scottish referendum on Sep 18 a little more than 2-week away, more news n latest poll results will be reported. Reuters reported the British government said on Monday it was not drawing up contingency plans for a surprise vote in favour of Scottish independence.
One of the major debates has raised big questions such as what currency an independent Scotland would use and what would happen to Britain's Scotland-based nuclear submarines. But the govt on Mon refused to discuss how it would handle a split.
"No such work (is being) undertaken," PM David Cameron's official spokesman told reporters when asked if the govt had drawn up contingency plans for a "Yes" vote. "The govt's entire focus is on making the case for the UK staying together."
AceTraderFx Sept 2: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Sep 2014 23:58GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9191
55 HR EMA
0.9179
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
61
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise
Resistance
0.9298 - Sep 19 high (2013)
0.9251 - Nov 07 high (2013)
0.9198 - Last Fri's n Mon's fresh 9-mth high
Support
0.9163 - Last Fri's Euroepan morning high (now sup)
0.9126 - last Thur's low
0.9104 - Aug 22 low
. USD/CHF- 0.9194... Although the greenback opened higher n resumed its recent winning streak to a fresh 9-month high at 0.9198 in NZ, price retreated to 0.9177 in European morning on rebound in eur/usd. However, dlr found renewed buying in European session n climbed back to 0.9198 near Mon's closing.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's gain to 0.9198 signals the 3-legged rise fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 remains in progress n further gain twd daily res at 0.9251 (Nov '13) wud be seen this week, abv wud extend marginally, however, anticipated 'bearish divergences' on the hourly oscillators wud prevent strg gain abv there n reckon res 0.9898/00 (Sep 19 high n psychological lvl respectively.) shud remain intact this week n risk wud increase for a much-needed correction later. On the downside, only a daily close below sup at 0.9104 (Aug 22 trough) wud indicate a temporary top has been made n risk stronger correction twd chart sup at 0.9058.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are buying dlr on intra-day pullback for gain to 0.9215/20 n only below last Thur's low at 0.9126 wud abort daily bullishness n risk retracement twd 0.9104.
AceTraderFx Sept 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
03 Sep 2014 02:34GMT
USD/JPY - ..... The greenback continued its recent winning streak and strengthened to a fresh 8-month high of 105.27 ahead of Tokyo open on renewed broad-based selling in the yen following Tuesday's rally on market speculation Japanese PM Abe will appoint Yasuhisa Shiozaki, deputy policy chief of the LPD who may shift pension funds toward riskier assets.
Current firmness due to 130 points gain in the N225 index suggests buying dlr on dips for a re-test of 2014 peak at 105.45 is recommended. However, sharp gain is unlikely to be seen as market participants are awaiting release of a slew of U.S. data, then the U.S. Beige book later today (18:00GMT) to get a snapshot of economic health in each of the central bank's districts for hints of Fed to ending its extraordinary monetary policy and normalizing interest rate.
Bids are noted at 105.00-104.80 region, with stops below there. On the upside, offers are placed at 105.30-40 and then 105.50 with stops touted above there.
Last night the greenback rallied to a fresh 8-month high of 105.21 in NY morning after the release of much stronger-than-expected U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI which came in better-than-expected at 59.0 versus economists' forecast of 56.8. However, profit-taking offers capped dlr's upside somewhat n more offers are tipped at 105.40/45. On the downside, bids are located at 105.00, 104.85-80 and more at 104.70.
Wednesdaywill see the release of U.K. BRC shop price index, China's NBS non-manufacturing PMI, Australia's GDP, China's HSBC services PMI, German and eurozone and U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. Redbook, ISM-New York index, Canada's rate decision, U.S. factory orders, durable goods and Fed's Beige book.
AceTraderFx Sept 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views AUD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
03 Sep 2014 04:09GMT
AUD/USD - .... RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' speech in Adelaide, quote:
'not in position to change stance on policy stability;
A$ above most metris of fair value;
Australian assets still remain attractive to foreign investors;
foreign demand major reason why A$ remains high.'
he said that: not in position to change stance on policy stability;
A$ above most merits of fair value;
Australian assets still remain attractive to foreign investors;
foreign demand major reason why A$ remains high.
-Stevens says policy must avoid build up of financial sector risk
- would be unwise to further inflate high house prices with rates
-best thing rba can do for economy is to run an accommodative policy and rates are very low
-has made clear his views on relatively high a$, won't repeat them
-unemployment rate is "concerning", though clouded by data distortions
-labour market has degree of spare capacity, some time before unemployment falls
-taking gdp for q1 and q2 together, points to moderate growth
-signs are growth continuing in current quarter
-data show further upgrading of non-mining investment, like to see more
- business balance sheets healthy, well placed to increase investment
AceTraderFx Sept 3: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 02 Sep 2014 23:52GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
104.97
55 HR EMA
104.63
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
84
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent up move
Resistance
106.26 - 1.618 times ext. of 100.76-104.13 fm 100.81
105.91 - 2.618 ext. of 103.56-104.25 fm 104.10
105.45 - Jan 02 5-year high
Support
104.78 - Tue's European low
104.49 - last Mon's NZ high (Reuters)
104.10 - Mon's European low
. USD/JPY- 105.24 ... The greenback jumped shortly after Tokyo open on Tue on speculation PM Abe will appoint a minister who will increase the national pension fund twd riskier assets led to rally in the Nikkei. Price climbed to a fresh 8-month high of 105.21 in NY morning after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI data. Dlr then rose to 105.27 in Aust. Wed.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rally after early breach of Apr's 104.13 high confirms an 'upside break' of the 7-month long broad sideways consolidation fm Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45 has indeed taken place n a breach of aforesaid 2014 high at 105.45 will be forthcoming soon to confirm LT rise fm 75.32 (2011 record low) has finally resumed n yield further gain to 106.26 (being 1.618 times extension of 100.76-104.13 measured fm 100.81) n later twd 107.06, this is 50% proj. of 77.13-103.74 fm 96.73). On the downside, only a breach of 104.13 (Apr's high, now sup) wud signal a temporary top is made n risk stronger pullback to 103.81 but sup at 103.56 is expected to remain intact.
. In view of abv analysis, buying dlr again on dips in anticipation of a re-test of 105.45 res is favoured. Only a breach of 104.49 indicates top, 104.10.
AceTraderFx Sept 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
04 Sep 2014 02:13 GMT
EUR/USD- .... Euro is in holding pattern after yesterday's short-covering rebound to 1.3160 ahead of NY open, however, sellers quickly emerged once price faltered below offers 1.3160/70 but lack of follow-through selling lifted price from 1.3133.
Expect range trading to continue as traders are keep their powder dry ahead of ECB policy announcement at 11:45GMT, then ECB President Draghi's press conference which guarantees sharp swings in the euro, until then, we have a slew of EZ data with French unemployment kicking off at 05:30GMT and then Germany's industrial order at 06:00GMT.
Order flows n position adjustments would influence intra-day move, offers are reported at 1.3160/70 with stops building above there, more stops are touted above 1.3200. Initial bids are noted at 1.3135-25 with stops below there, more bids are reported at 1.3110/00 with fairly large stops below there.
Yesterday, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said the U.S. economy is 'in a pretty good place', adding that he believes it will soon be ready for gradual interest rate increases but stopping short of saying when.
"I don't think it would be much of a brake on the economy if we had a gradual increase in interest rates," Fisher told Reuters in an interview.
As to when the Fed should start raising rates from the near-zero level they've been since December 2008, he said, "My personal opinion is that the calendar has been moved forward, at least in my mind - how far forward, I couldn't tell you right now."
Thursdaywill see the release of Australia's exports, imports, trade balance and retail sales, Germany's industrial orders, Bank of England's rate decision, ECB's rate decision, U.S. ADP employment, ECB's press conference, U.S. initial jobless claims, productivity and international trade, Canada's exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Markit services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
USD/JPY-- .... BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda begins his press conference n says 'household confidence is improving; virtuous cycle of economic activity continues to operate firmly; Japan economy continues moderate recovery despite decline in demand after sales tax hike; overseas economies are recovering, centring on advanced economies, albeit some slack; exports showing weakness; private consumption in firm trend; CPI likely to hit 2% around middle of forecast period between fiscal 2014-16; QQE has been exerting its intended effects; will continue with QQE as long as necessary to achieve 2% goal in a stable manner; will examine both upside, downside risks to economy n make adjustment as appropriate; progress in fiscal discipline is important for Japan.'
The rally in the Nikkei which started on Tue (this in turn caused dlr/yen to rally) n took the index to a 7-month high of 15829 was due to market optimism on the appointment of Japan's new welfare minister, Yasuhisa Shiozaki to make reform in the world's largest pension fund GPIF.
Reuters reported earlier Shiozaki told reporters "safe and efficient" asset management was a priority for the country's pension fund even as the government is set to overhaul the way it invests. He added "the most important thing is that people think the system is trustworthy."
Shiozaki's job will include supervising the country's $1.26 trln pension fund. His previous calls to overhaul Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) have led to expectations he could push for it to invest in riskier assets.
The GPIF has already cut its bond holdings in recent months, as PM Shinzo Abe has been pushing GPIF to invest more in risk assets n less in domestic bonds in order to boost returns. The fund is finalising plans to boost the weighting of domestic stocks in its portfolio as early as this month.
Earlier, Japan Welfare Minister Shiozaki said ' should aim for dafe, efficient management of GPIF assets'.
BoJ keeps monetary policy steady by unanimous vote, pledges to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trln yen. BoJ board member Kiuchi proposed making 2 pct inflation target a medium- to long-term goal, which was turned down by 8-1 vote.
BoJ said in a statement issed after the meeting:
'Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend;
Japan's economy likely to continue recovering moderately as a trend;
keeps economic assessment unchanged saying effect of tax hike remains;
industrial output continues to recover moderately as a trend but making weak movements;
cuts view on housing investment saying effect of sales tax hike continues;
private consumption remains firm as a trend, effect of sales tax hike gradually easing.'
The greenback pares yesterday's losses in European & NY session n extends o/n bounce fm NY low of 104.75 to 104.94 in Tokyo trading, however, softness in the Nikkei index (currently down 18 points to 15710) limited dlr's rebound.
Despite yesterday's sharp retreat fm a fresh 8-month high of 105.31 as decline in the N225 triggered profit-taking ahead of offers near Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45, downside shud be ltd as improving U.S. economic condition shud attract buyer for greenback, therefore, buying on dips is still the favoured strategy. Offers are noted at 105.00-10 with mixture of offers n stops located at 105.25/30 n around 105.45/50. On the downside, bids are placed at 104.50-40, then 104.25/20 with stops emerging just below 104.00.