Intraday trading signal - page 118
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AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 Sep 2014 00:14GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Rising fm o/s
21 HR EMA
1.2919
55 HR EMA
1.2925
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
50
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue
Resistance
1.3030 - Hourly chart
1.2990 - Last Fri's high
1.2963 - Y'day's high
Support
1.2883 - Y'day's NY low
1.2860 - Tue's fresh near 14-month low
1.2839 - 1.618 times ext. of 1.3700-1.3333 fm 1.3433
. EUR/USD- 1.2919 ... The single currency briefly penetrated Tue's high at 1.2957 to 1.2963 in European morning, however, renewed selling interest there capped euro's upside n price ratcheted lower to session low of 1.2883 in New York midday b4 paring intra-day losses in NY afternoon.
. As mentioned in previous update, euro's rebound fm a near fresh 14-month low at 1.2860 on Tue to 1.2963 signals a temp. bottom has been made there as the magnitude of this move was the largest in over a month, therefore, several days of consolidation is in store. As long as 1.2990 res (last Fri's high) holds, out look remains bearish for the MT downtrend fm Jul's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to retrace the entire MT rise fm 2012 bottom at 1.2042 to resume to 1.2839 (1.618 times extension of 1.3700-1.3333 measured fm 1.3433), however, as the hourly oscillators wud display prominent 'bullish convergences' on next fall, previous key daily sup at 1.2745 shud remain intact.
. Today, in view of abv consolidative view on euro, one can trade on both sides of the market n buy on dips for another rebound or sell on next intra-day up move twd 1.2980/90 res for subsequent retreat.
AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Outlook on Major EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.2925
Update Time: 12 Sep 2014 01:04 GMT
Euro's rebound after Wednesday's retreat from 1.2963 to 1.2883 suggests a few days of consolidation above Tuesday's fresh 14-month trough at 1.2860 would be seen, however, reckon daily res at 1.2990 (last Friday's high) would hold and another decline is envisaged later.
Below 1.2860 would signal mid-term downtrend from 1.3995 (July) has once again resumed and bring further weakness to 1.2839 and then possibly towards 1.2800. On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2990 would yield stronger retracement to 1.3030/40 before down.
AceTraderFx Sept 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
12 Sep 2014 02:28GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Despite dollar's retreat after a brief rise to 107.20 in Thursday's NY morning due to profit-taking, renewed buying interest emerged at 106.65 and pushed price higher in NY afternoon.
The greenback continued its recent winning streak in Tokyo morning and rose to a fresh 6-year peak at 107.30, helped by Nikkei as it turned into positive territory after opening down 0.15% at 15885 (currently up 61 points to 15970).
As speculation of Fed may take a hawkish turn at its policy meeting next week continues to boost demand for greenback, buying dlr on dips is recommended.
Investors should pay attention to the release of U.S. retail sales and Uni. of Michigan prelim. consumer sentiment surveys in NY morning as they might give dlr another boost due to the optimism of an increase of 0.6% in August and an improvement to 83.3 respectively.
Bids are placed at 107.00-106.90 with mixture of bids n stops at 106.60/70. On the upside, offers are located at 107.30-40 n around 107.50 with selling interest from various accounts at 107.70/80 n ahead of 108.00.
Fridaywill see the release of New Zealand's manufacturing PMI, Japan's capacity utility index and industrial output, euro zone employment and industrial production, U.S. exports, imports, retail sales, University of Michigan sentiment and business inventories.
AceTraderFx Sept 12: Dollar rises to a fresh 6-year high verus yen after dovish .....
Market Review - 11/09/2014 22:33GMT
Dollar rises to a fresh 6-year high verus yen after dovish comments from BOJ governor Kuroda
The greenback jumped to a fresh 6-year high at 107.20 in New York on Thursday after dovish comments from BOJ's governor Kuroda, however, active profit-taking knocked price lower to 106.69 before rebounding.
Bank of Japan's Kuroda said cannot comment on specific FX levels; FX market seems to be focusing on direction of monetary policies of U.S., Japan, Europe; don't see current yen weakness as extremely negative for Japan's economy; U.S. economy is recovering steadily, allowing Fed to taper asset purchases while Bank of Japan is maintaining its massive stimulus; Japan Q2 economy contracted due to tax hike impact but what's important is Q3 rebound, how economy performs thereafter; it's true we saw some weak economic data but expect Jul-Sep GDP to turn positive; not true Bank of Japan has no options available if it were to ease further; we will adjust policy, ready to easy policy further if we feel we are not making steadily progress toward meeting price target; for now, I don't think there is any need for additional policy steps.
The single currency fell briefly to an intra-day low at 1.2897 at European open on Thursday due to cross-selling of euro versus sterling (eur/gbp dropped to 0.7942), however, buying interest on short-covering lifted price to 1.2952 in New York morning before easing.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged governments to match the ECB's effort with investment and structural reforms to help the flagging euro zone grow. Draghi said it may also be useful to have a discussion about the overall fiscal stance of the euro zone with a view to raising public investment where possible.
In other news, EU's Van Rompuy said new Russia sanctions will take effect Friday; EU may suspend or amend sanctions based on review of peace moves to be carried out by end-Sep; EU could repeal Russia sanctions in all or in part if situation on ground warrants.
The British pound found renewed buying interest at 1.6186 in Asia and then ratcheted higher to 1.6270 in New York morning before retreating briefly to 1.6214.
Bank of England's Kohn said exit from unconventional monetary policy likely to be positive for UK economy and markets; exit not without dangers, due to possible mispricing of credit, interest rate and liquidity risks; banks should not expect Bank of England to require them hold more capital at every stage of business cycle than before crisis.
Friday will see the relesae of New Zealand's manufacturing PMI, Japan's capacity utility index and industrial output, eurozone employment and industrial production, U.S. exports, imports, retail sales, University of Michigan sentiment and business inventories.
AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 12 Sep 2014 00:28GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Rising fm o/s
21 HR EMA
1.6232
55 HR EMA
1.6203
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
54
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 strg retreat
Resistance
1.6395 - Prev. hourly sup (now res)
1.6340 - Last Fri's high
1.6281 - Last Fri's low, now res
Support
1.6186 - Y'day's Asian low
1.6170 - Wed's NY morning high
1.6052 - Y'day's fresh near 10-month low
. GBP/USD- 1.6241 ... Despite cable's retreat fm Wed's 1.6231 tpp to 1.6186 in Asia on Thur, renewed buying interest contained weakness n price resumed upmove fm Wed's near 10-month low at 1.6052 fm in Europe. Cable later rose to 1.6270 in NY morning b4 retreating to 1.6215 n then climbed to 1.6277 in Aust.
. Cable's strg rebound fm 1.6052 to as high as 1.6270 confirms the recent MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has finally formed a temporary bottom there as this low was accompanied by prominent 'bullish convergences' on the hourly oscillators, therefore, a few days of choppy consolidation wud be seen n stronger retracement to 1.6279/81 ('minimum' 38.2% r of intermediate fall fm 1.6645-1.6052 n last Fri's sup, now res respectively) is envisaged, however, reckon res at 1.6340 (last Fri's high) wud cap upside n yield another fall. On the downside, only a breach of 1.6052 wud extend weakness twd 1.6000 next week.
. Today, as current price is still trading abv 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting near term upside bias remains n buying on dips is favoured in anticipation of marginal rise, however, one can sell on next upmove. On the downside, below 1.6125 sup wud signal correction is over n yield weakness to 1.6080/90.
AceTraderFx Sept 15 Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
15 Sep 2014 02:00GMT
EUR/USD -..... The single currency moved in choppy fashion in fairly thin Asian trading due to closure of financial markets in Japan. Despite opening higher in NZ, failure to re-test Fri's near 1-week high of 1.2980 (intra-day top was 1.2979) prompted selling by st specs, price retreated to 1.2950.
Although range trading is expected to continue, Fri's erratic rise abv 1.2963 res to 1.2980 suggests recent short-covering activities wud continue as Fri's release of CFTC data showed for the 1st time in 15 months, euro shorts pared their short positions. Bids are noted at 1.2950-40 n more below with some stops touted below 1.2900. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2980/90 with stops reported building abv the psychological 1.3000 level.
A piece of Reuters news which came out after Fri's close worth noting:
ECB President Mario Draghi promised on Fri the central bank planned asset purchase programme wud be "big" but stressed that only structural reforms by govts could revive the moribund euro zone economy.
Draghi told a news conference following a meeting of FinMins in Milan, "our balance sheet is expected to move towards the size it had at the start of 2012." He declined to give an estimate on the size of the ABS programme, saying "we know it's going to be big, but we are hesitant to give a number now".
Draghi believed recovery was continuing, even though it was "fragile, uneven and weak". However, with interest rates now at their "lower bound", he stressed that it was now up to govts to reform their economies to improve their ability to grow.
"No matter what monetary or even fiscal stimulus can be decided, we won't see much growth coming from these measures ... if there are no serious structural reforms," the ECB chief said.
On Friday closing, the single currency jumped to 1.2979/80 in thin New York trading, however, selling interest there caped euro's upside n price retreated to around 1.2940. Offers are now tipped at 1.2975/80 n more at 1.2990. On the downside, bids are located at 1.2925-20 n more at 1.2910.
This week will see the release of U.K. Rightmove house prices, Swiss producer or import price, eurozone Eurostat trade, U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, capacity utilization, industrial and manufacturing output on Monday.
Australia's RBA meeting minutes, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Bank of England quarterly bulletin, Germany's ZEW current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. core PPI final demand, Canada's manufacturing sales, U.S. Redbook, overall net capital flows on Tuesday.
New Zealand's current account, Bank of England minutes, U.K. average earnings, claimant count unemployment, ILO unemployment, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, eurozone inflation, U.S. core CPI, CPI, current account, NAHB housing market index, FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement on Wednesday.
New Zealand's GDP, Japan's import, export and trade balance, China's house prices, Swiss trade balance and interest rate decision, U.K. retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business index on Thursday. U.K. Independence referendum.
Germany's producer prices, eurozone current account, Canada's core CPI, CPI inflation and wholesale trade and U.S. leading index on Friday.
AceTraderFx Sept 15:Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
15 Sep 2014
USD/JPY - ....... Although the greenback staged a rebound after initial gap-down open to 107.16 in NZ, renewed broad-based buying in yen due to fall in the Nikkei futures capped gain just below last Fri's fresh 6-year peak at 107.40 shortly after Asian open n price retreated fm 107.36 to 107.19 before recovering.
As today is Japan's 'Respect of the aged day holiday, market is expected to be quiet in Asia session n range trading below 107.40 should continue until European open.
Offers are noted at 107.30-40 and then around 107.50 with stops emerging just abv 107.70. On the downside, bids are placed at 107.10-00 and then 106.85/80 with stops located below 106.60.
Looking ahead, investors' focus this week will be on the outcome of Wed's Fed policy meeting n the following press conference hold by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
Market is expecting the Fed to cut its asset purchase program by another $10 bln which would keep it on track for winding up the program in Oct, and to start raising interest rates sometime in mid-2015.
AceTraderForex Sept 15: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 14 Sep 2014 23:53GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
107.25
55 HR EMA
107.04
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
57
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal rise
Resistance
108.04 - Sep 19 2008 high
107.81 - 50% proj. of 106.04-107.40 fm 107.13
107.40 - Last Fri's high
Support
107.09 - Last Fri's European low
106.64 - Last Thur's Asian low
106.04 - Last Wed's low
. USD/JPY - 107.35 ... The pair continued its recent winning streak last week as gain in the Nikkei as well as upbeat U.S. data boosted risk sentiment, dlr gained for 5 consecutive days n rose to a fresh 6-year high of 107.40 Fri.
. Looking at bigger picture 1st, dlr's early rally abv Jan's 105.45 peak to as high as 107.40 Fri suggests the LT uptrend fm record low at 75.32 (Nov 2011) remains in progress n further headway to next daily chart obj. at 108.04 (Sep high in 2008) is now envisaged after minor consolidation, however, as the hourly oscillators' readings wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, strg gain abv there may not be seen n reckon 108.99, being 2-times extension of MT intermediate rise fm 103.56-105.71 measured fm 104.69, wud cap upside this week n risk has increased for a much-needed correction to take place later. On the downside, a daily close below 106.64 (last Thur's low) wud be the 1st signal temporary top is in place n yield stronger retracement twd 106.04.
. Today, dlr's brief retreat to 107.16 at NZ open (Japan's market is closed) has increased risk of a minor retracement, however, 106.64/65 sup shud hold fm here. Abv 107.40 wud extend to 107.70/80 b4 prospect of a minor correction.
AceTraderFx Sept 15:Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
15 Sep 2014 09:45GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Euro falls in European trading as short-term specs sold euro broadly vs usd, yen, gbp, chf n aud at European open, tripping initial stops at 1.2940-35, price hit an intra-day low of 1.2916.
The release of OECD statements on Reuters when the think-tank urged much more aggressive stimulus (QE) fm the ECB further weighed on the single currency.
OECD released its growth forecasts, in which it
'cuts U.S. 2014 GDP growth forecast to 2.1% fm 2.6% in May;
cuts euro area GDP growth forecast to 0.8% fm 1.2% in May;
cuts Japan's GDP growth forecast to 0.9% fm 1.2% in May;
cuts Germany's 2014 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% fm 1.9% in May;
cuts France's GDP growth forecast to 0.4% fm 0.9% in May;
cuts Italy's GDP growth forecast to -0.4% fm 0.5% in May;
trims Britain's GDP growth forecast to 3.1% fm 3.2% in May.'
AceTraderFx Sept 16: Intra-Day News & Views(AUD/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
16 Sep 2014
AUD/USD - the RBA releases its minutes :
-most prudent course likely to be a period of stability for rates
-policy must take into account risk of further large build-up in home prices
-members observed additional speculative demand could amplify property price cycle
-members noted there had not been a general easing in mortgage lending standards to date
-members judged current policy stance contributing to sustainable growth
-A$ remained above most estimates of its fundamental value
-iron ore prices had declined noticeably over the past month
-signs of pick up in labour demand, but some time before jobless rate declined consistently
-mining investment little changed in Q2 but should fall significantly over the next year
-degree of spare capacity in labour market apparent in the slow growth of wages
-recent Chinese data consistent with official GPD target of 7.5%
-conditions in China's residential property market remain a risk to outlook for China
Tuesdaywill see the release of Australia's RBA meeting minutes, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Bank of England quarterly bulletin, Germany's ZEW current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. core PPI final demand, Canada's manufacturing sales, U.S. Redbook and overall net capital flows.