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Acetraderfx Aug 13 : Dollar rises broadly on upbeat U.S. data expectations
Market Review - 12/08/2013 22:24GMT
Dollar rises broadly on upbeat U.S. data expectations
The greenback strengthened against other currencies on Monday as investors bet the U.S. economic data this week will support the Federal Reserve to reduce stimulus sooner rather than later.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback dropped initially to 95.93 in Australia due to cross-buying in yen on risk aversion after the release of weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP data (0.6% q/q versus the forecast of 0.9%), the pair rebounded to 96.64 in Asia on comments from Japan's PM Abe. Dollar's broad-based strength lifted dollar to 96.91 in New York morning but price retreated to 96.40 later in the day due to rebound in euro before stabilising.
Japanese Prime Minister Abe said 'economy improving steadily due to government's economic policies since last year; will tackle economy with eye on growth policies towards autumn.'
Although the single currency rebounded from New Zealand low at 1.3315 to 1.3345 in Australia, the pair edged lower to 1.3318 in Asia and then dropped further to 1.3278 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength together with the cross selling of euro versus yen and sterling before staging a recovery on short-covering.
In other currency, despite cable's brief recovery from 1.5486 to 1.5522 in Australia, renewed selling interest pressured the pair and the British pound dropped in tandem with euro to 1.5462 in European morning and then 1.5459 in late New York..
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia NAB business confidence, Japan Machinery order, German CPI, HICP, Zew economic sentiment, current condition, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI, EU industrial orders, ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. import price index, export price index, retail sales, business inventories.
AceTraderfx : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 10285
13 Aug 2013 01:37GMT
Usd's marginal gain abv y'day's high at 10280 to
10290 signals the LT rise fm 8845 remains in force
n upside bias is seen for 10300, 10350.
Hold long for this move, below 10200 wud risk
stronger retrace. to 10150 but 10100 shud hold.
STRATEGY : Long at 10255
POSITION : Long at 10255
OBJECTIVE : 10295
STOP-LOSS : 10265
RES : 10300/10350/10400
SUP : 10250/10200/10150
AceTrader Aug 14: Dollar rallies against yen & euro on strong U.S. retail sales data
Market Review - 13/08/2013 22:06GMT
Dollar rallies against yen and euro on strong U.S. retail sales data
The greenback rose strongly against yen and euro on Tuesday as the U.S. retail sales outside of cars, gasoline and building materials rose at its fastest pace in seven months, fueling expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon reduce its stimulus measures.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded with a firm undertone throughout the day. Despite dollar's brief retreat from 97.44 to 97.15 in Asian morning, active cross selling of yen versus other currencies due to the rumour of corporate tax cut in Japan lifted the pair in European session. Dollar's broad-based strength due to the U.S retail sales later pushed the pair further higher to 98.25 in New York morning before easing.
U.S. retail sales and retail sales excluding cars, gasoline and building materials came in at 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, versus the forecast of 0.4% and 0.3%. The previous readings were revised to 0.6% n 0.1% respectively.
The single currency rebounded from Australian low at 1.3289 to 1.3316 in European morning but retreating to 1.3282. Later, despite euro's marginal gain to 1.3317 after the release of better-than-expected German economic sentiment (42.0 versus the forecast of 39.5), the pair nose-dived in New York morning on dollar's strength due to the U.S. retail sales and price eventually hit a 1-week low at 1.3234 before stabilizing in U.S. afternoon.
Although the British pound edged higher in tandem with euro from Asian low at 1.5448 to 1.5482 in European morning, the pair fell to 1.5432 but then staged a strong rebound to 1.5490 after the release of U.K. CPI data, however, price dropped to a low at 1.5427 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength. Later, despite cable's swift rise to 1.5513, renewed selling interest sent the pair to 1.5448 and the pound traded inside the range for the rest of the day.
U.K. CPI in July was released at 0.0% m/m and 2.8% y/y, same as the forecast. U.K. RPI in July came in at 0.0% m/m and 3.1% y/y, same as expectation. ONS house price in Jun came in at 3.1% y/y, lower than the forecast of 3.5%.
In other news, ZEW economist said 'sentiment is highest since March 2013; first signs of end of recession in important euro zone countries may have contributed to indicator's rise; economic optimism is supported by German domestic demand; significant increase for euro zone expectation, good sign that worst of recession might be over; ECB will have more room for earlier increase of interest rates due to calming of crisis; there is a tendency for the Eurozone to get out of recession in Q2.'
On the data front, German CPI in Jul came in at 0.5% m/m n 1.9% y/y, same as expectation. Eurozone industrial production came in at 0.7% m/m and 0.3% y/y, vs the expectation of 1.0% and 0.3% respectively
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand retail sales, Australia consumer confidence, France GDP, HICP, CPI, U.K. BOE MPC minutes, claimant count, unemployment rate, average earning, Germany GDP, EU GDP, Swiss Zew index, U.S. PPI.
AceTraderfx Aug 15 : Euro little changed despite strong GDP in eurozone & Germany
Market Review - 14/08/2013 22:50GMT
Euro little changed despite strong GDP in the eurozone and Germany
The single currency moved in a tight range on Wednesday despite the fact that eurozone and Germany GDP data beat forecast and showed economy of the area is coming out from recession.
Earlier in the day, euro traded narrowly in Asia and then rose briefly to 1.3280 after the release of better-than-expected German GDP (0.7% q/q and 0.9% y/y versus the forecasts of 0.6% and 0.7%), however, the release of stronger-than-expected eurozone GDP (0.3% q/q and -0.7% y/y versus the forecasts of 0.2% and -0.8%) did not help the pair and euro later dropped to session low at 1.3239 in European morning before staging a rebound to 1.3271 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based weakness due partly to the lower-than-expected U.S. PPI (0.0% m/m and 2.1% y/y versus the expectations of 0.3% and 2.4%).
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback retreated initially from Tuesday's top at 98.34 to 97.87 in Asia but cross selling of yen versus euro lifted the pair above 98.34 to 98.43 in European morning, dollar's broad-based weakness after release of U.S. PPI pressured price to 97.96 in New York morning before recovering.
Although the British pound also traded narrowly in Asian morning and then dropped briefly to 1.5423 in European morning, release of upbeat U.K. jobs data lifted price sharply higher from there to 1.5507 and active cross buying of sterling versus euro later pushed price further to a session high of 1.5549 in New York morning before easing.
U.K. claimant change in Jul came in at -29.2K, much better than the forecast of -15.0K. Unemployment rate remains at 7.8%, same as the expectation.
In other news, BoE minutes showed 'MPC voted 8-1 in favour of forward guidance policy, Weale votes against; BoE's Weale wanted shorter time horizon for 2.5 CPI knock-out clause than 18-24 months; Weale saw "particularly compelling" need to manage risk that guidance pushes up medium-term inflation expectations; show MPC voted 9-0 to keep QE bond purchase total at 375 bln stg; some members still believe case for more QE compelling, but want to gauge impact of guidance before raising asset purchases; show voted 9-0 to keep rates at 0.5%; most members think U.K. short term market interest rates out of line with economic outlook, some do not.'
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, Empire state manufacturing, Net LT TIC flows, industrial production, capacity utilization, NAHB housing market index, Philadelphia Fed survey, Canada existing home sales.
AceTraderfx : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2700
16 Aug 2013 03:53GMT
Usd's sell off fm 1.2756 Thur signals corrective
rise fm Aug's low at 1.2562 has made a top n weak-
ness twd 1.2636 (61.8% r) is envisaged.
Turn short on recovery n only abv 1.2740/50 may
risk re-test of Aug's peak at 1.2769.
STRATEGY : Hold short
POSITION : Short at 1.2700
OBJECTIVE : 1.2640
STOP-LOSS : 1.2735
RES : 1.2722/1.2756/1.2769
SUP : 1.2673/1.2655/1.2620
AceTraderfx Aug 19, 2013 : Euro pares gain on Friday due to
Market Review - 17/08/2013 06:35GMT
Data to be released this week:
Monday: Japan Trade balance, import, export, leading indicator, U.K. Rightmove house price.
Tuesday: Australia RBA minutes, Japan all industry index, Germany PPI, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. Chicago Fed index, retail sales.
Wednesday: Australia leading indicator, U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, CBI distribute trades, U.S. existing home sales.
Thursday: Japan machine tools orders, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France manufacturing PMI, service PMI, German manufacturing PMI, service PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, service PMI, Canada CPI, U.S. jobless claims, Markit PMI, house price index, leading indicators.
Friday: Germany GDP, export, import, U.K. GDP, BBA mortgage approvals, EU consumer confidence, Canada CPI, U.S. new home sales.
Euro pares gain on Friday due to profit-taking
The single currency erased its recent gain against the dollar on Friday as investors closed their previous long positions below 1.3400 level after the rally on Thursday.
Although the single currency edged lower from Thursday's top at 1.3363 to 1.3326 in European morning, the pair penetrated 1.3363 to session high at 1.3380 in New York morning due to dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of weak U.S. housing starts and building permits (5.9% and 2.7%, less than the forecasts of 7.7% and 2.9% respectively) but only to retreat to 1.3312 later in the day on weekend adjustment.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rebounded strongly from Thursday's low at 97.00 to 97.56 in Asian morning. However, the pair ratcheted lower to 97.27 in Europe and then 97.19 in New York morning after the release of weak U.S. housing starts and building permits before staging a rebound to 97.78.
The British pound retreated from Thursday's top at 1.5652 in tandem with euro and dropped to 1.5618 in European morning before renewed buying interest pushed the pair above 1.5652 to a fresh 7-week top at 1.5657 in New York morning, however, profit-taking pressured price later and cable fell
to 1.5608 and then moved narrowly in U.S. afternoon.
On the data front, U.S. University of Michigan consumer index came in at 80.0, worse than the forecast of 85.2. Euro zone trade balance in Jun came in at 17.3B, previous reading was revised to 14.5B. CPI Final in Jul was released at -0.5% m/m and 1.6% y/y, same as forecast.
AceTraderfx : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK – 10470
19 Aug 2013 04:35GMT
Usd's firmness after extending LT uptrend to
10470 suggests further gain wud be seen but loss of
momentum wud prevent sharp rise abv 10550.
Trade fm long side for this move, below 10450 wud
dampen bullishness n risk retrace. to 10400.
STRATEGY : Long at 10470
POSITION : Long at 10470
OBJECTIVE : 10520
STOP-LOSS: 10460
RES : 10500/10550/10600
SUP : 10450/10400/10350
lAceTraderfx Aug 20 : Euro rises on hawkish comments from Bundesbank
Market Review - 19/08/2013 21:41GMT
Euro rises on hawkish comments from Bundesbank
The single currency strengthened in European session on Monday as German's Bundesbank did not ruled out to raise the interest rates in future due to high inflation.
Although the single currency traded narrowly in Asia and dropped briefly to 1.3315 in European morning, the pair rose strongly to 1.3375 due to the news that Germany's Bundesbank said it did not rule out higher interest rates to curb inflation, however, failure to penetrate last Friday's top at 1.3380 prompted profit-taking and price later retreated to 1.3334 near New York close.
Bundesbank said 'expects German economy to return to normal, steady growth rate in H2; German inflation likely to ease somewhat over next few months; ECB forward guidance not an unconditional commitment, monetary policy still dependent on medium-term inflation outlook.'
Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar's retreat from 97.85 to 97.36 in Asian morning, price rose strongly to 98.08 in Europe on active cross selling of yen versus other currencies. The pair later edged higher to 98.13 in New York morning but only to retreat to 97.47 near New York close.
Although the British pound traded narrowly in Asia and dropped briefly to 1.5610 in European morning, renewed buying interest emerged there and price rose above last Friday's top at 1.5657 to a fresh 7-week high at 1.5674 before trading sideways in New York session.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia RBA minutes, Japan all industry index, Germany PPI, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. Chicago Fed index, retail sales.
AceTraderfx Aug 20, 2013 : DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
20 Aug 2013 00:16GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.5647
55 HR EMA
1.5625
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
51
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 correction
Resistance
1.5753 - Jun 17 high
1.5723 - Equality proj. of 1.4814-1.5435 fm 1.5102
1.5674 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5608 - Last Fri's NY sup
1.5520 - Last Thur's NY low
1.5496 - Last Thur's Australian low
. GBP/USD - 1.5650... The British pound found renewed interest buying at
1.5610 (just abv last Fri's NY sup at 1.5608) at European opening n rose to a
near 2-month high at 1.5674 in European session y'day in tandem with euro's
strength after hawkish comments fm Bundesbank b4 trading sideways in NY.
. Looking at the hourly n daily chart, recent series of higher lows n
higher highs fm Jul's 3-year low at 1.4814 remains in progress n as current
hourly n daily indicators are rising, suggesting as long as 1.5608 sup holds,
one more rise to 1.5700/10 is likely, however, as bearish divergences wud appear
on hourly oscillators on such move, previous key daily res at 1.5753 (Jun 17
high) is expected to hold on 1st testing n yield a much-needed minor correction
later today or tomorrow.
. In view of the abv analysis, we're cautiously selling cable on next
upmove in anticipation of a retreat to 1.5608/10, break wud confirm a top has
finally been made n yiled retrace. of intermediate rise fm 1.5423 to 1.5578
(minimum 38.2% r) n then twds 1.5549 (50% r) but sup at 1.5520 wud hold.
AceTraderfx Aug 21 : Dollar falls to 6-month low against euro ahead of Fed minutes
Market Review- 20/08/2013 21:16GMT
Dollar falls to 6-month low against euro ahead of Fed minutes
The greenback tanked against euro on Tuesday ahead of the release of Fed minutes on Wednesday as market is expecting the July meeting minutes will offer clues to whether the central bank will pare its bond-buying measures in September.
Although the single currency retreated fm 1.3356 to 1.3324 in European morning, the strong rebound in eur/jpy coss pushed the pair above last Friday's top at 1.3380 to 1.3407 in European morning, price eventually climbed to a 6-month top at 1.3452 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based weakness before easing.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar's brief recovery to 97.87 in Asia, active cross buying of yen versus other currencies due to the steep fall in Nikkei-225 index pressured the pair below last Thursday's low at 97.00 to 96.98 in European morning. Later, dollar's broad-based weakness sent the pair marginally lower to 96.91 in New York morning before stabilising.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asia and dropped briefly to 1.5629 in European morning, renewed buying interest lifted the pair above Monday's top at 1.5674 to 1.5680 and sterling later rose further to a fresh 8-week top at 1.5696 in tandem with euro in New York morning before trading sideways.
The Australian dollar fell sharply to a low at 0.9027 in Europe after early dovish RBA minutes in Asia but then staged a recovery to 0.9098 in New York on short-covering. The Reserve Bank of Australia released its minutes which stated that 'members agreed should not close off possibility of further easing; neither did members want to signal an imminent intention to cut rates further; judged a rate cut was appropriate at Aug meeting; ; A$ still high by historical standards, possible could fall further to help rebalancing; inflation to remain within target range even with the impact of lower A$; expected the fall in A$ to gradually boost tradable prices over next few year; economic growth expected to remain modest for next few quarters before picking up.'
In other news, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said 'current interest rates on German government bonds are still too low.' German Finance Ministry said 'expect German growth of 0.5-0.7% in 2013; unhealthy that Germany must pay interest rates at times below rate of inflation; there will be no new haircut for Greece but there will need to be a new aid programme; interest rates on 10-year German bonds of 2% are ok.'
BOJ Governor Kuroda said 'BOJ's stance is to do whatever it takes to beat deflation; Japan's economy improvement is steady proceeding, seeing signs of positive cycle of output, income n spending.'
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia leading indicator, U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, CBI distribute trades, U.S. existing home sales.