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AceTraderFx May 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 May 2014
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas who is a voting member of the FOMC, said on the Fox News program Sun the U.S. economy is "moving in the right direction" and "getting stronger" as private-sector payrolls increase.
Fisher added "the private sector is beginning to hire," and "we'd like to see that continue and, in fact, increase."
On Fed QE, Fisher then said "I personally expect us to end that program in October." He then said "And then we have to see how the economy is doing, including these broader measures of unemployment, n where we stand, before we can talk about how we might move the short-term rate."
Despite euro's brief drop to 1.3812 after Fri's release of upbeat US jobs report, the single currency rebounded strongly to 1.3881 due to dlr's broad-based weakness on renewed tensions in Ukraine. Euro rose further to 1.3889/90 in Asian morning today b4 retreating to 1.3865. Some bids are reported at 1.3860-50 n more at 1.3835/40 with stops only seen below 1.3810. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3890-00 with stops seen abv Apr's high at 1.3906.
Trading is likely to be thin today as Japan and U.K are closed for holiday.
AcetraderFx May 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 May 2014 02:47GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3880.. The European Commission (EC) gave a downbeat assessment of the eurozone in its spring forecast on Mon n traders' reaction after reading the report wud be selling the eur/gbp cross.
Bloomberg reported The European Commission predicted on Mon low inflation will remain a threat to euro-area expansion for at least the next 2 years as it trimmed its economic-growth forecast n warned of the impact of tensions with Russia.
The euro zone's inflation rate will be 0.8% this year n 1.2% in 2015, both lower than forecast in Feb n well below the ECB's target of just below 2%. EZ GDP is projected to rise 1.7% in 2015, compared with the commission's previous forecast of 1.8%.
Commission VP Siim Kallas told reporters in Brussels "Price pressures are expected to remain subdued as we expect energy prices to continue to decline n as demand is only gradually firming n unemployment is still high." He added "When we consider what are the main risks for the European economy at this stage, the one main risk is clearly the external tensions n uncertainty which surrounds us, especially related to the crisis in Ukraine.
02:22GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3877 ... The single currency traded inside a narrow range of 1.3865-1.3890 on Monday due to holidays in Japan and Britain. Trading is expected to be thin also in Asia today until European open as Italy, France, Germany n eurozone will release their services PMI at 07:45GMT, 07:50GMT, 07:55GMT n 08:00GMT respectively.
Market players shud pay attention to the release of eurozone retail sales data at 09:00GMT. The retail sales is expected to decrease by 0.6% m/m in March versus the previous reading of 0.4% m/m increase.
AceTraderFx May 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 May 2014 08:06GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3915
The single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.3875 at European open n jumped in early European morning to 1.3931 on earlier news of Russia deploying submarines near Crimea together with the release of upbeat services PMI fm Eurozone.
Bids are now seen at 1.3910/15 n more below at 1.3890/00 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.3940/45.
Italy n France services PMI came in better-than-expected at 51.1n 50.4 vs forecasts 50.2 n 50.3 respectively.
Russian Defence Minister says 'new submarines, ships to be deployed by Crimea-based black sea fleet this year.'
News from RIA news agency, Russian deputy foreign minister says Russia, U.S. will abide by strategic arms reduction treaty; says Ukraine crisis will not affect it.
AceTraderFx May 6: Daily Outlook on USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY
Update Time: 06 May 2014 00:26 GMT
Despite last Friday's brief rise to 103.02 due to the release of upbeat US jobs report, the renewed tension in Ukraine knocked price lower to 102.13 and then 101.86 yesterday, suggesting the erratic up move from April's low at 101.32 has possibly formed a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias would be seen, however, breach of said sup needed to confirm decline from this year's top at 105.45 has once again resumed and yield re-test of 100.76 (February's low).
On the upside, only a breach of 103.02 would prolong recent choppy consolidation and may risk stronger gain to 103.45 but res at 104.13 (April's high) is expected to remain intact.
Acetraderfx May 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 May 2014 23:54GMT
USD/JPY - 101.71
Bank of Japan April 7-8 minutes stated that "most members agreed BOJ should continue with QE as long as necessary to meet 2% price target; one member said BOJ's easing should be restricted to about 2 years; one member said speculation about protracted QE could lead to economic instability in the medium to long term; one member said corprate profits, employment and income are improving significantly.
Members agreed that consumer spending is resilient, even though there are some fluctuations due to sale tax hike; one member said front-loaded demand before sales tax hike in April was greater than last sales tax hike in 1997; one member said consumer confidence could pick up if exports increase and companies bring forward CAPEX plans; many members said price gains are seen across a wide range of items and not just energy-related goods; one member expressed concern that foreign exchange moves are having more influence on consumer prices; one member said inflation could quicken from April as firms use sales tax hike as opportunity to pass on rising costs."
Acetraderfx May 7: Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
DAILY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 101.75
Update Time: 07 May 2014 00:02 GMT
Yesterday's sell off below Monday's low at 101.86 to 101. 50 suggests erratic decline from Apr's high at 104.13 has possibly resumed n a re-test of Apr's low at 101.32 is envisaged.
Below would extend weakness to 101.00 but key daily sup at 100.76 (Feb) would hold.
Sell on pull back with stop as indicated and only above yesterday's 102.19 high would risk gain to 102.56.
AceTraderFx May 7: Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 07 May 2014 00:33GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.6857
55 HR EMA
1.6821
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
68
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of MT uptrend
Resistance
1.7103 - 1.236 ext. of 1.6460-1.6821 fm 1.6657
1.7044 - Aug 2009 high
1.7000 - Psychological res
Support
1.6954 - Y'day's European morning high, now sup
1.6921 - Last Thur's high, now sup
1.6887 - Hourly chart
. GBP/USD - 1.6978... Cable edged higher after meeting renewed buying at 1.6865 in Australia y'day n price climbed ahead of European open on dlr's broad-based weakness. Later, release of upbeat UK service PMI pushed price abv 1.6921 to 1.6954, then later to a fresh near 5-year peak of 1.6996 in NY b4 easing.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, cable's firmness after y'day's rally abv last Thur's high at 1.6921 (now sup) to 1.6996 confirms MT erratic uptrend fm 1.4228 (2010 bottom) has once again resumed n further gain is envisaged after a minor consolidation, abv psychological res at 1.7000 wud encourage further headway twd ket res at 1.7044 (Aug 2009 peak n reaction high fm 2009 record low at 1.3500), however, as hourly oscillators are in o/bot territory, sharp gain is unlikely to be seen n reckon 1.7103, (1.236 times extension of 1.6460-1.6821 fm 1.6657) wud remain intact this week n yield minor correction.
. In view of abv analysis, buying the pound on dips for gain twd 1.7044 is favoured. On the downside, only a daily close below 1.6921 indicates a temporary top is made instead n shifts risk to downside for a retracement to 1.6887 (61.8% r of 1.6821-1.6996, adjust if necessary) but sup 1.6853 (Mon's low) sud hold.
AceTraderFx May 7: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK- 11560
07 May 2014 07:01GMT
Dlr's intra-day strong rebound signals 1st leg of
decline from Apr's 11665 top has ended yesterday at 11500
n 'choppy' sideways trading is in store.
Above 11585 would bring further gain to 11615/25 n
only below 11500 extend decline toward 114600 next wk.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 11585/11625/11665
SUP : 11500/11460/11410
AceTraderFx May 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY AUD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 May 2014 01:50GMT
USD/JPY - 101.82 ... Despite dlr's brief drop below Tuesday's low at 101.50 to 101.43 yesterday, the greenback ratcheted higher to a session high of 102.01 in NY after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen indicated continued central bank support for the U.S. economy.
Price later retreated briefly to 101.58 on profit-taking before rising again to 101.96 in Asian morning today.
Bids are now located at 101.70 and 101.60 whilst some offers are tipped at 102.00 with stops only seen above 102.20.
Yellen said the U.S. economy was still in need of support from the central bank given the "considerable slack" in the labor market. She also cited the housing sector and geopolitical tensions as issues of concern.
08 May 2014 01:36GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9355 ... The Australian dollar jumped to 0.9362 after the release of better-than-expected Australian jobs report. Australia's employment change was 14,200 in April versus economists' forecast of 8,800 together with upwardly revised reading of 21,900 from 18,100 in March. Australian unemployment rate came in at 5.8% versus the expectation of 5.9%.
AceTraderFx May 8: Daily Technical Outlook on CHF/USD
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 May 2014 00:18GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.8756
55 HR EMA
0.8757
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
66
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 oe more fall
Resistance
0.8862 - Apr 22 high
0.8806 - Last Fri's European high
0.8780 - Tue's high
Support
0.8721 - Tue's low
0.8698 - Mar 13 (2014 low )
0.8652 - 100% proj. of 0.8953-0.8743 fm 0.8862
. USD/CHF- 0.8764... The greenback traded narrowly in Asia y'day after falling to a 6-week low of 0.8721 on Tue. Price edged higher to 0.8754 in Europe n then closed near session's high of 0.8764 in NY.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rebound after failure to
penetrate Tue's low at 0.8721 suggests MT decline fm 2012 peak at 0.9972 is not ready to resume yet n minor consolidation wud be seen, however, reckon res at 0.8780 (Tue's high) shud limit upside n bring another fall twds 0.8721. Below wud confirm above mentioned decline has resumed n yield re-test of Mar's 2-year low at 0.8698, break wud add credence to recent bearish view n yield further weakness twd 0.8652 (equality projection of 0.8953-0.8743 measures fm 0.8862) later this week. Having said that, as hourly oscillators wud display prominent 'bullish convergences' on such move, reckon 0.8582, being 80.9% projection of 0.9156-0.8698 measured fm 0.8953 wud hold n bring a much-needed correction.
. Today, we are holding a short position entered y'day in anticipation of
subsequent weakness to 0.8670. Only a daily close abv 0.8780 wud abort bearish scenario n may risk stronger retracement to 0.8806 n possibly 0.8830/40.