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AceTraderFx Oct 2 : Daily outlook on Asian Exotics - USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1074.5
02 Oct 2013 01:03GMT
Present breach of y'day's low at 1073.3 suggests
consolidation with downside bias wud be seen for a
re-test of Sep's low at 1069.8, break, 1067.0.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated n only
abv 1077.8 wud abort n risk gain to 1079.2.
STRATEGY : Short at 1074.5
POSITION : Short at 1074.5
OBJECTIVE : 1070.0
STOP-LOSS : 1076.5
RES : 1077.8/1079.2/1082.0
SUP :1072.1/1069.8/1056.4
AceTraderFx Oct 2 : Daily Outlook on Minors/Crosses - AUD/JPY
DAILY AUD/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 91.05
02 Oct 2013 07:55GMT
A$'s intra-day selloff suggests recent fall fm 94.45 has once again resumed n below Mon's low at 90.74 wud extend weakness to 90.40/50 b4 recovery.
Sell on pullback with stop as indicated n only abv 91.90 aborts n risk gain to 92.39.
STRATEGY : Sell at 91.40
OBJECTIVE : 90.50
STOP-LOSS : 91.75
RES : 91.90/92.39/93.01
SUP : 90.74/90.13/89.51
AcetraderFx Oct 3 : Euro strengthens to a fresh near 8-month peak against the dollar
Market Review - 02/10/2013 22:14GMT
Euro strengthens to a fresh near 8-month peak against the dollar on Wednesday
The single currency rose to a fresh near 8-month peak against the dollar on Wednesday after Italy's prime minister survived a confidence vote, while comments by ECB President Mario Draghi also boosted the pair. Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta survived a vote of confidence in parliament on Wednesday, after Silvio Berlusconi dropped his opposition to the coalition, in a surprise U-turn after announcing Saturday that he was pulling his ministers out of the government.
During the day, although euro edged lower from Tuesday's high of 1.3589 in early Asian trading, the pair found support at 1.3507 and then rebounded to 1.3539 in European morning. Later, euro briefly dropped to 1.3505 after ECB kept interest rate on hold at 0.50% but 'euro-supportive' comments by ECB's President Mario Draghi lifted price sharply higher to a fresh multi-month high at 1.3608 in New York morning before easing.
ECB's Draghi said 'underlying price pressures in Euro zone expected to remain subdued; confidence indicators confirm expected gradual improvement in economy; ECB monetary policy stance geared towards maintaining warranted degree of monetary accommodation; ECB monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary; ECB expects key interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for extended period; will remain particularly attentive to implications to monetary policy stance; 'inflation path is developing as expected; will have to look through medium-term inflation and decide about interest rates, or other steps'
Versus the yen, dollar remained under pressure in Asia on the back of decline in Nikkei 225 index and then fell to 97.26 before recovering, however, another round of selling on dollar due to a combination of political deadlock in the U.S. and a weak private sector jobs report weighed on greenback and dollar later dropped to a fresh session low of 97.15 in New York morning.
U.S. ADP in September came in at 166K, worse than the forecast of 180K.
Although the British pound initially fell to session low 1.6162 in Asian morning, cross-related buying of sterling versus euro lifted price to 1.6227 in European and cable later climbed higher in tandem with euro to 1.6252 (near Tuesday's 8-1/2 month peak at 1.6260) in New York morning on dollar's broad-based weakness after disappointing U.S. jobs data.
In other news, BoE's Fisher says 'unemployment could hit 7% a year earlier or later depending on small changes in assumptions; "extremely serious" if U.S. shutdown means debt interest paid; better to hold QE in reverse in case economy falters.'
Data to be released on Thursday:
China non-manufacturing PMI, Italy service PMI, France service PMI, Germany service PMI, U.K. service PMI, EU service PMI, retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing, durable goods on Thursday. China and Germany financial market is closed due to public holiday.
AceTraderFx Oct 3 : Forex Market Outlook on Majors
MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK on GBP/USD - 1.6175
02 Oct 201304:19GMT
Cable's rally abv 1.5753 (Jun) to a fresh 9-month high at 1.6260 confirms MT uptrend fm this year's low at 1.4814 (Apr) has resumed n further gain to 1.6380 res (Jan) is likely, abv wud extend to 1.6500 but 1.6747 res wud hold fm here.
Only below 1.5955 wud signal a temporary top is made n risk stronger retrace- ment to 1.5753 (prev. res, now sup) b4 rebound.
AceTraderFx Oct 4 : Dollar weakens after ISM data and U.S. budget worries
Market Review - 03/10/2013 22:24GMT
Dollar weakens after ISM data and U.S. budget worries
The greenback weakened against euro and yen on Thursday as demand for the greenback remained under pressure after disappointing U.S. service sector data and amid ongoing U.S. budget worries.
The single currency moved above Wednesday’s high at 1.3608 to 1.3624 in Asian session before retreating to 1.3589 in European morning. Later, Euro rebounded to 1.3616 after release of stronger-than-expected euro zone retail sales, which came in at 0.7% m/m and -0.3% y/y versus the forecast of 0.2% n -1.5% respectively, and then dropped to 1.3587 in New York morning. However, the pair found renewed buying interest there and ratcheted higher above Asian high to 1.3627 on U.S. budget worries and weaker than expected ISM non-manufacturing data, climbed to 8-month fresh high at 1.3646 in New York midday.
U.S. ISM non-manufacturing in September came in at 54.4, worse than economists’ forecast of 57.0.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback found renewed buying interest at Asian low at 97.26 and lifted to a session high at 97.88 in European trading on cross-selling yen versus other currencies. However, worries of U.S. budget and weaker-than-expected ISM data pushed the pair sharply lower to a session low at 96.93 in New York trading.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asian session and then dropped to 1.6192 in European morning. Cable rebounded to 1.6234 after the release of better-than-expected U.K. service PMI (60.3 versus the expectation of 60.0) before edging lower in European midday. Later, the pair dropped to session low at 1.6155 near New York close.
In other news, Fed's Williams said 'very accommodative monetary policy will be appropriate for quite some time; U.S. unemployment is still too high, inflation too low; will be appropriate to trim, end bond buys as economy improves; do not expect it will be appropriate to raise short-term rates until second half of 2015.’ U.S. treasury department said 'U.S. default on obligations could cause credit market to freeze, dollar to plummet, U.S. interest rates to skyrocket; U.S. default might trigger a financial crisis and a recession that "could echo the events of 2008 or worse U.S. labor department confirms monthly jobs report will not be issued on Friday, says an alternative release date has not be set.
On the data front, U.S. jobless claims came in at 308K, better than the forecast of 313K, previous reading is revised to 307K. German service PMI in September came in at 53.7, worse than the forecast of 54.4. Euro zone service PMI in September came in at 52.2, better than expectation of 52.1.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan BOJ rate decision, Germany PPI, U.K. employment confidence, Canada Ivey PMI on Friday.China financial market is closed due to public holiday.
AceTraderFx Oct 4 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK- 1072.4
04 Oct 2013 00:01GMT
Usd's gap-down open n retreat to 1072.0 suggests
consolidation with downside bias remains to re-test
Sep's low at 1069.8, break extends to 1066.0.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated n only
abv 1077.8 aborts bearishness, risks 1079.2.
STRATEGY : Sell at 1074.5
OBJECTIVE : 1070.0
STOP-LOSS :1076.5
RES : 1077.8/1079.2/1082.0
SUP : 1072.0/1069.8/1056.4
AceTraderFx Oct 4 : Daily market outlook on EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK : EUR/USD - 1.3625
04 Oct 2013 00:53 GMT
Yesterday's rise to a fresh near 8-month high at 1.3646 suggests medium term rise from April's low at 1.2745 would extend towards 1.3657/60 after initial consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent strong rise above there and reckon resistance at 1.3711 would limit upside and bring a much-needed correction later.
On the downside, only below 1.3577 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk would shift to the downside for a retracement to 1.3505.
AceTraderFx Oct 7 : Dollar rebounds on weekend short-covering
Market Review: Oct 7, 2013
Data to be released this week:
Monday :Japan Leading indicators, BOJ's monthly economic report, Germany WPI, EU Sentix investor confidence, Canada Building permits. China financial market is closed due to public holiday.
Tuesday : Australia NAB business condition, NAB business confidence, Japan Current account, Economic watch DI, China HSBC Markit Service PMI, Swiss Unemployment rate, CPI, retail sales, UK BRC retail sales, RICS house prices, Germany Trade balance, current account, export, import, factory orders, France trade balance, Canada housing starts, trade balance, exports, imports, US trade balance, redbook retail sales.
Wednesday :Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan Machine tools orders, UK Industrial production, Manufacturing production, trade balance, Germany Industrial production, U.S. Wholesale inventories, Wholesale sales, FOMC minutes.
Thursday :New Zealand PMI, Australia Employment change, Unemployment rate, Japan Tertiary industry index, Machinery orders, Consumer confidence, UK BOE asset purchase target, MPC rate decision, Germany Import price index, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy Industrial production, Canada New housing price index, U.S. Import price index, export price index, jobless claims, Fed budget.
Friday :Japan Domestic CGPI, Germany CPI, HICP, France current account, Italy CPI, HICP, Canada Unemployment rate, U.S. PPI, retail sales, University of Michigan consumer confidence, business inventories.
Dollar rebounds on weekend short-covering
Dollar strengthened broadly against the major currencies as investors locked in their profits on Friday, although concerns over the partial U.S. government shutdown still weighed on the greenback.
During the day, the single currency traded in a relatively narrow range below Thursday's near 8-month peak at 1.3646 in Asia and then came under pressure in Europe on long liquidation. Euro dropped to 1.3580 in New York morning and intra-day decline accelerated once support at 1.3577/87 was penetrated due to dollar's broad based rebound at European closing, price tumbled to session low of 1.3538 before stabilising in New York afternoon.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback initially rebounded to 97.40 in Asian morning and then retreated after the Bank of Japan decided to hold its monetary policy unchanged, dollar dropped to 96.96 in European morning but greenback's broad-based rebound in New York trading lifted price. The pair later climbed to a fresh session high of 97.49 in New York afternoon and closed near its day's high.
Bank of Japan’s governor Haruhiko Kuroda says 'BoJ will take policy response if overseas tail risks threaten Japan's recovery; current BoJ easing is enough to meet BoJ's policy target; government stimulus package will give significant boost to Japan's GDP growth.’
The British pound briefly recoevred to 1.6179 in Asian midday following Thurday's decline but cross-selling of sterling (especially versus euro and yen) quickly knocked price lower. investors continued to lock in their recent profits and sent cable tumbling to a one-week low of 1.6006 near New York close.
In other news, Fed's Fisher said 'the decision not to taper bond-buying in Sep was a "close call"; I personally feel the effectiveness of buying treasuries "isn't that high" and costs are large; I don't believe we would dare default; a default would disturb the entire financial market.' Fed's Lacker said 'Fed policy actions cannot necessarily counteract the effects fiscal policy uncertainty, falling productivity growth; recent recovery has shown "significant limits" on power on monetary policy to affect real economy.'
On the data front, Canada Ivey PMI (Sep) came in at 51.9, worse than the forecast of 52.9; EU PPI (Aug) came in at 0.0% m/m n -0.8% y/y, vs the forecast of 0.1% m/m n -0.6% y/y, previous reading is revised to 0.2% m/m n 0.0% y/y. Germany PPI (Sep) came in at -0.1% m/m n -0.5% y/y, vs the forecast of 0.1% m/m n 0.1% y/y.
AceTraderFx Oct 7: Daily Market Outlook on EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on EUR/USD - 1.3565
07 Oct 2013 00:38 GMT
Euro's strong retreat from last Wednesday's near 8-month high at 1.3646 to 1.3538 on Friday suggests medium-term uptrend has made a temporary top over there and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for a stronger retracement to 1.3505 but good support at 1.3462 would remain intact and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.3607 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and yield re-test of said high, break extends rise to 1.3679/80.
AceTraderFx Oct 7 : Daily outlook on Asian Exotic – USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11530
07 Oct 2013 07:52GMT
Although usd has retreated fm last Mon's peak at
11660 n consolidation is seen, as long as sup 11505
holds, upside bias remains to re-test said res.
Hold long with stop as indicated, below wud
risk stronger retracement twd 11455 n 11430.
STRATEGY : Long at 11520
POSITION : Long at 11520
OBJECTIVE : 11610
STOP-LOSS : 11480
RES : 11660/11700/11750
SUP : 11505/11455/11430