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AceTraderFx Oct 16: Dollar trades mixed after suspension of U.S. Senate debt talks
Market Review - 15/10/2013 22:04GMT
Dollar trades mixed after suspension of U.S. Senate debt talks
Dollar traded mix versus major currencies on Wednesday as hopes for a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and end the government shutdown diminishing. U.S. Senate Durbin said in New York afternoon that 'U.S. Senate fiscal negotiations suspended until House Republicans work out plan to proceed on debt limit, government funding.'
The single currency found support at 1.3550 in Asian trading and then rose to session high at 1.3571 in European morning. However, a growing optimism on U.S. debt ceiling deal pushed euro lower to a fresh 2-week trough at 1.3479 in European midday before stabilizing. Euro later rebounded to 1.3536 near New York close on news that U.S. Senate fiscal negotiations had suspended.
The British pound swung from gains to losses, Price initially dropped below Monday's low at 1.5955 to 1.5952 in Asian morning and then rebounded to 1.6010 in European morning after the release of higher-than-expected CPI data, which came in at 0.4% m/m and 2.7% y/y, versus street forecast of 0.3% and 2.6% respectively. However, cable met selling pressure there and price tumbled to a session low of 1.5915 in European midday. However, active broad-based buying of sterling in New York session helped price to recoup intra-day losses and cable climbed back to as high as 1.6000 near New York close.
Versus Japanese yen, despite a brief rise to 98.71 in Australia following rally in previous session, the greenback retreated on renewed cross-buying yen and dropped to 98.37 shortly after European open. Later, dollar rebounded to 98.69 but failure to penetrate said intra-day high prompted profit-taking. Price retreated to 98.39 and then tumbled to an intra-day low at 97.99 near New York close.
In the other news, BoE's Weale said 'considerable slack in U.K. labor market is exerting downward pressure on inflation; clear movement of half a percentage point in inflation expectation would be significant; 'forward guidance if not carefully designed can raise inflation expectation; my concerns about inflation expectations are forward guidance remain.'
On the data front, Fed's Empire state index in October came in at 1.52, vs the forecast of 7.00, the lowest since May. EU ZEW economic sentiment (October) came in at 59.1.Germany ZEW current condition (October) came in at 29.7, worse than the forecast of 31.3.Germany ZEW economic sentiment (October) came in at 52.8, better than the expectation of 49.6.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand CPI, Australia Westpac leading economic index, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, Average earnings, Swiss ZEW index, EU trade balance, CPI, U.S. CPI and net LT TIC.
AceTraderFx Oct 17: Dollar pares early gain after Senate deal
Market Review - 16/10/2013 22:19GMT
Dollar pares early gain after Senate deal
Dollar strengthenedagainst other major currencies on Wednesday but this gain was limited after U.S. Senate reached a bipartisan deal. U.S. Senate majority leader Reid said 'bipartisan compromise reached in Senate to raise debt limit and reopen government.’
Althougheurorose from 1.3506 in Asia and ratcheted higher in European trading, it climbed to a session high at 1.3567 in New York morning, dollar's broad-based rebound on optimism that the U.S. debt ceiling pressured price sharply lower and euro tumbled to a fresh 2-week low of 1.3472 before stabilising.
Later, the single currency rebounded after U.S. Senate reached a bipartisan deal and it climbed back to 1.3550 in New York afternoon.
With Japanese yen, the greenback retreated after rising to 98.63 in the Asian morning and then dropped to 98.25 in Europe. However, dollar's broad based rebound lifted price and the pair penetrated Tuesday's high of 98.71 in New York morning, then it surged to a session high at 98.98 before easing. Dollar later retreated to 98.60 in New York afternoon after Senate reached a bipartisan deal before stabilising.
Although cable rebounded after finding renewed buying interest at 1.5966 in Asia, it posted a brief rally to a session high of 1.6064 in Europe due to the release of better than the forecast U.K. job claimants data (-41.7K in September versus forecast of -25.0K). With active cross-selling of pound versus euro pressured price sharply lower from there and cable later tumbled on the back of greenback's broad-based rebound, it dropped to a fresh near 4-week low at 1.5894 in New York morning. But the British pound rose in tandem with euro in New York afternoon and it climbed back to 1.5970 before easing.
In other news, Bank of England's Spencer Dale said that '7% unemployment rate is not a target for Bank of England but a convenient point to consider on whether to raise rates; forward guidance increases monetary policy's effectiveness by making it more predictable. The U.K. economy looks set to grow even more quickly in H2 2013 than in H1 & the latest indicators suggest U.K. economy growing at annualized rate of 3-4%; with the levels of output and employment, not the growth rates, are the things that matter for monetary policy.
' The beige book from Federal Reserve stated 'U.S. economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace through September to early October but business contacts cautiously optimistic on outlook of the government shutdown, debt ceiling had increased uncertainty.'
On the data front, eurozone CPI for September came in at 0.5% m/m, & is as the expectation of 0.5%.
U.S. NAHB housing market index in October came in at 55, is worse than economists' expectation of 57.
Data to be released on Thursday:
ANZ consumer confidence index.
Australia NAB business confidence.
Japan machine tools orders.
EU current account; U.K. retail sales.
U.S. housing starts, building permits, jobless claims, industrial production, capacity utilization and Philadelphia Fed survey.
AceTraderFx Oct 17 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2442
17 Oct 2013 02:48GMT
Although usd has rebounded fm Tue's 1.2408 low n
consolidation is seen, as said move signals fall fm
Aug's 1.2862 top has resumed, downside bias remains
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated n only
abv 1.2497 wud abort bearishness, risk 1.2525.
STRATEGY : Short at 1.2450
POSITION : Short at 1.2450
OBJECTIVE : 1.2390
STOP-LOSS : 1.2480
RES : 1.2477/1.2497/1.2525
SUP : 1.2408/1.2389/1.2361
AceTraderFx Oct 17 : DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
17 Oct 2013 00:21GMT
Trend Daily Chart : Down
Daily Indicators : Falling
21 HR EMA: 0.9137
55 HR EMA : 0.9129
Trend Hourly Chart : Sideways
Hourly Indicators : Neutral
13 HR RSI : 53
14 HR DMI: 0
Daily Analysis : Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
0.9279 - Sep 17 high
0.9225 - Sep 15 low, now res
0.9178 - Tue's high
Support
0.9093 - Tue's low
0.9064 - Mon's low
0.9016 - Last Mon's n Tue's low
USD/CHF - 0.9140 ... U.S. dollar went through a 'roller-coaster' session
y'day. Despite Tue's rally to a fresh 4-week high at 0.9178, price retreated to
0.9118 in Australian morning y'day n then 0.9098 in NY morning due to U.S. debt
deadlock b4 rebounding to 0.9175 after U.S. Senate reached a bipartisan deal.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, as mentioned in our previous
updates, dlr's firmness suggests erratic upmove fm Oct's 19-month low at 0.8968
to at least retrace MT intermediate downtrend fm 0.9455 (Sep's high) remains in
progress n as long as Mon's low at 0.9064 holds, mild upside bias remains for
further gain to 0.9212, (being 50% r of 0.9455-0.8968), however, anticipated
high readings on hourly oscillators wud prevent strg gain abv 0.9225 (Sep 15
low, now res) n reckon 0.9269 (61.8% r) shud cap upside n yield retreat later.
. Today, we're standing aside in the meantime n wud look to buy dlr on dips
as only a breach of 0.9064 sup wud violate recent series of higher lows n higher
highs fm 0.8968 n signal aforesaid corrective rise has made a top there n yield
weakness twds 0.9016 sup (last Mon's n Tue's low).
AceTraderFx Oct 18: Dollar weakens broadly despite U.S. budget agreement deal
Market Review - 17/10/2013 22:19GMT
Dollar weakens broadly despite U.S. budget agreement deal
The greenback tumbled broadly on Thursday as concerns over the effects of the U.S. government shutdown on the nation's economy weighed on the currency, despite news of a budget agreement to raise the debt ceiling, averting a default.
The single currency found support at 1.3516 in Australia and then ratcheted higher in Asian trading, price penetrated Wednesday's high at 1.3567 in Europe on speculation of U.S. government shutdown will damp growth and prompt the Federal Reserve to postpone tapering its stimulus program. Euro eventually rose to a fresh 8-month peak at 1.3682 in New York morning before easing due to some profit-taking.
Versus Japanese yen, although dollar briefly rose to 99.01 in Asian morning, cross-buying of yen pressured price there and dollar dropped to 97.81 in Europe due to greenback's broad-based weakness and then further to 97.74 in New York morning.
The British pound found support at 1.5940 in Australia and rallied across Asia and Europe due to dollar's broad-based weakness on worries over U.S. economy. The release of stronger-than-expected U.K. retail sales pushed price higher to 1.6097 and cable later rose further to 1.6173 in New York session before easing. U.K. retail sales (September) came in at 0.6% m/m and 2.2% y/y, better than economists’ forecast of 0.4% and 2.1% respectively.
In other news, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's President Richard W. Fisher said 'Fed can't deliver on full employment mandate unless U.S. congress, president fix fiscal "mess"; Wednesday's deal to end U.S. debt crisis does not solve fiscal problems, only postpones them; there is little remaining tolerance for U.S. fiscal malfunctioning; looking to Fed to solve U.S. economic ill could make situation worse; bond market starting to show United States the "back of it hand"; Fed will take "all appropriate measures" to preserve money market stability in times of acute stress; any Fed action to prevent market disruptions should not be seen as a fiscal fix; no amount of Fed bond-buying can offset U.S. fiscal "rot".'
On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 358K, worse than the expectation of 335K, previous reading is revised to 373K. Philadelphia Fed index in October came in at 19.8, better than the forecast of 15.0.
Data to be released on Friday:
China GDP, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investing urban, Canada CPI.
AceTraderFx Oct 21: Dollar weakens broadly on dimming hopes of Fed tapering
Market Review - 19/10/2013 00:51GMT
Dollar weakens broadly on dimming hopes of Fed tapering
The greenback fell against it peers on Friday as the negative impact of the two-week U.S. government shutdown sparked speculation that the Federal may not scale back its bond purchases in the near future.
The single currency traded narrowly in Asia following previous day's rally. Price then rose above Thursday’s high at 1.3682 to a fresh 8-1/2 month high of 1.3704 in European morning on dollar’s broad-based weakness. However, failure to re-test 2013 peak at 1.3711 (February) prompted profit talking, the pair briefly retreated to 1.3669 in New York morning and then euro rebounded to 1.3699 before trading narrowly in New York afternoon.
Versus Japanese yen, although the greenback staged a recovery initially at Tokyo open to 98.15, renewed selling interest there pushed price lower in Asian session. Dollar fell to session low of 97.55 at European midday on dollar's broad-based weakness before rebounding to 97.92 in New York afternoon.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asian morning and met buying interest at 1.6142. Cable then climbed at European open and rose to intra-day high of 1.6225 in European morning due to active cross-buying of sterling versus euro. However, long liquidation pressured price lower, cable retreated to 1.6159 at New York midday and moved sideways.
In other news, Bank of Japan’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said 'effects of BoJ policy firmly emerging in economy; see positive trends of economy and prices; Japan economy is recovering moderately; Japan economy will continue moderate recovery; will continue with QE as long as necessary to maintain inflation target in stable manner; annual gains in CPI will rise gradually with improvement spreading to broad items.'
Bank of England Chief Economist Spencer Dale said ‘interest rate not on hold for "fixed period"; rate depends on growth and inflation outlook; BoE's QE plan has supported real output; BoE-stimulus to be unwound "with great care"; subdued wages and low housing transactions make BoE forward guidance knock outs not that likely just yet; very unlikely that we will raise bank rate in 2014, we need to see sustained period of strong growth'
On the data front, China GDP year-to-date in Q3 came in at 7.7%, same as the forecast. China industrial production in September came in at 10.2% y/y, same as the expectation. China retail sales in September came in at 13.3% y/y, worse than the economists’ forecast of 13.4%. Canada CPI in September came in at 0.2% m/m and 1.1% y/y, more than the forecast of 0.1% and 1.0% respectively.
Data to be released next week :
Japan import, export, trade balance, all industry index, leading indicators, U.K. Rightmove house prices, Germany PPI, U.S. Chicago Fed index, existing home sales, Canada wholesale sales on Monday.
Swiss trade balance, U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, Canada retail sales, Delayed release of September U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and Redbook retail sales on Tuesday.
EU consumer confidence, France business climate, U.K. BOE releases MPC minutes, BOE MPC vote, BBA loans for house purchase, U.S. house price index, Canada BOC rate decision on Wednesday.
New Zealand Trade balance, exports, imports, China HSBC Flash manufacturing PMI, France PMI manufacturing, PMI service, Germany PMI manufacturing, PMI service, EU PMI manufacturing, PMI service, Italy consumer confidence, U.K. CBI industrial trend, U.S. jobless claims, Markit PMI, new home sales on Thursday.
Japan national CPI, Tokyo CPI, Germany Ifo current assessment, Ifo business climate, U.K. GDP, U.S. durable goods, ex. Transport, ex. Defense, University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.
AceTraderFx Oct 21 : Daily Market Outlook on - USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1062.5
21 Oct 2013 03:02GMT
Despite intra-day rebound fm fresh 9-mth low at
1059.9, as long as 1063.7 holds, downside bias re-
mains for one more fall, below 1059.9, 1056.4.
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated n only
abv 1066.6 aborts bearishness, risks 1069.8.
STRATEGY : Short at 1062.0
POSITION : Short at 1062.0
OBJECTIVE : 1058.0
STOP-LOSS : 1064.0
RES : 1066.6/1069.8/1074.7
SUP : 1059.9/1056.4/1054.5
AceTrader Oct 22: Dollar rebounds on expectation of upbeat U.S. jobs data
Market Review - 21/10/2013 22:50GMT
Dollar rebounds on expectation of upbeat U.S. jobs data
Dollar pared Friday's losses and gained slightly against other major currencies on Monday, as investors awaited the release of U.S. job report for September on Tuesday, which was two weeks late due to U.S. government shutdown, and speculated whether the Federal Reserve will delay plans to taper its QE program.
The single currency traded narrowly in Asian session and then met renewed selling interest at 1.3686 in European morning. Euro later fell to an intra-day low at 1.3651 in New York morning before rebounding to 1.3689 in New York afternoon.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback found support at New Zealand low at 97.79 and ratcheted higher in Asian and European session due to active cross-selling on yen versus other currencies. The pair then climbed to intra-day high of 98.24 before trading sideways in New York afternoon.
The British pound retreated to 1.6153 in Asian morning and rebounded to intra-day high of 1.6181 in European morning, however, renewed selling interest there pushed price lower and then fell to session low of 1.6133 in New York morning before staging brief bounce to 1.6168.
In the other news, the Federal Reserve of Chicago’s President Charles L. Evans said 'will probably take a few months to sort out picture in the U.S. labor market after gov't shutdown; does not see financial stability risks at the moment; would favor putting place as much monetary accommodation as the economy needs; could start to reduce rate of bond purchases later due to budget battle in Washington; could also subsequently accelerate pace at which Fed tapers bond buying if U.S. recovery gathers strength; not worried by inflation pressures, economy has "awful lot of room" to grow once it picks up steam'
Bank of Japan’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said 'no change in view BoJ can achieve 2% inflation in roughly 2 years; Japan price growth spreading beyond rises in food and energy prices, expect CPI to gradually head toward 2%; too early to debate exit strategy for BoJ's quantitative easing policy; central bank has responsibility to achieve price stability, but government's fiscal, growth strategy will help smoothen the process’
On the data front, U.S. existing home sales in Sep came in at 5.29M n -1.9% m/m, versus the forecast of 5.30M n -3.3%, previous reading revised to 5.39M n 0.0% respectively.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Swiss trade balance, U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, Canada retail sales, Delayed release of September U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and Redbook retail sales.
AceTraderFx Oct 22: Daily outlook on USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1061.8
22 Oct 201302:28GMT
Despite y'day's rebound fm a fresh 9-mth low at
1059.9, as long as 1063.7 holds, downside bias re-
mains for one more fall, below 1059.9, 1056.4.
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated n only
abv 1066.6 aborts bearishness, risks 1069.8.
STRATEGY : Short at 1062.0
POSITION : Short at 1062.0
OBJECTIVE : 1058.0
STOP-LOSS : 1064.0
RES : 1066.6/1069.8/1074.7
SUP : 1059.9/1056.4/1054.5
AceTraderFx Oct 23 : Dollar tumbles after disappointing U.S. jobs report
Market Review - 22/10/2013 20:11GMT
Dollar tumbles after disappointing U.S. jobs report
Dollar fell broadly against its major peers after the release of delayed U.S. September's jobs report which showed 148,000 jobs were added to the market, fewer than the economists' expectation of 180,000, adding speculation that the Federal Reserve will delay its tapering measures.
U.S. non-farm payroll in September came in at 148K, worse than the expectation of 180K, previous reading was revised to 193K. U.S. unemployment rate in September dropped to 7.2%, better than the forecast of 7.3%.
The single currency traded narrowly in Asian session and found support at 1.3665 in European morning. Euro jumped to 1.3749 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls, and then climbed to near 2-year high at 1.3792 in New York afternoon before easing.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback rose to 98.37 in Asian trading and then moved marginally higher to 98.40 in European morning. Dollar tanked to 97.86 after release of disappointing U.S. jobs data, however, renewed buying interest there lifted price to an intra-day high of 98.48 in New York morning before retreating to 97.99 in New York afternoon.
The British pound initially retreated to 1.6116 in Asian session but renewed buying interest there lifted price higher in European session. Later, cable jumped to 1.6213 after U.S. job data and then rose to a session high at 1.6248 in late New York.
In other news, ECB's Luc Coene says 'further drop in inflation might warrant policy action; but too early now for ECB action; narrowing ECB interest rate corridor could limit volatility in market rates; do not see immediate tapering by the U.S. Fed.'
Bank of England's Deputy Governor Charlie Bean says 'business surveys point to U.K. growth close to 2% for H2 2013; U.K. recovery sustainable because banks now well-placed to lend and euro area no longer in existential crisis; market interest rates have risen more in U.K. than U.S. or euro zone due to stronger economic data here; fact that U.K. yield curve has steepened far less recently than past recoveries would suggest may indicate that forward guidance has had some effect on short end.'
On the data front, data to be released on Wednesday :
EU consumer confidence, France business climate, U.K. BOE releases MPC minutes, BOE MPC vote, BBA loans for house purchase, U.S. house price index, Canada BOC rate decision.