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AceTraderFx Oct 29 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1061.0
29 Oct 2013 05:52GMT
Despite Fri's fall to fresh 9-mth low at 1054.3,
subsequent strg rebound suggests a temp. low has
been made n retrace. to 1066.6 is seen.
Hold long with stop as indicated n only below
1054.3 wud abort n risk weakness to 1051.0.
STRATEGY : Long at 1061.0
POSITION : Long at 1061.0
OBJECTIVE : 1065.0
STOP-LOSS : 1059.0
RES : 1066.6/1069.2/1071.5
SUP : 1054.3/1051.0/1049.8
AceTraderFx Oct 30 : Dollar strengthens broadly ahead of FOMC
Market Review - 29/10/2013 21:46GMT
Dollar strengthens broadly ahead of FOMC
U.S. dollar strengthened broadly against major currencies on Tuesday as investors awaiting the outcome of Wednesday's FOMC policy meeting that the Federal Reserve will maintain its bond-buying program in coming months.
The single currency traded narrowly in Asia on Tuesday and fell to 1.3754 in European morning. Euro then staged a brief but strong rebound to 1.3813 in New York morning on euro-positive comments from ECB’s Nowotny. However, renewed selling interest together with active profit-taking capped euro's upside. The pair then tanked to 1.3736 in New York afternoon.
ECB's Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny says 'ECB unlikely to cut benchmark or deposit rate; policy makes 'have to live with' strong euro; "no realistic prospect" of rate cut.'
Versus Japanese yen, although the greenback initially dropped to 97.46 in Asia before ratcheting higher in Europe. Dollar rose above Monday's high at 97.79 to 98.00 in New York morning and climbed further to an intra-day high of 98.28 in New York afternoon.
The British pound tumbled to 1.6063 at Asian open before rebounding to 1.6119 ahead of European open. Cable later edged lower in European session and then fell to 1.6056 in New York morning. Sterling dropped further to a session low at 1.6022 in New York afternoon.
In other news, EU's Olli Rehn says 'Europe economic reform must continue for stronger growth; "clearly premature" to declare Europe's crisis over; tight credit conditions holding back European growth; "we paid dearly" for bank supervision deficiencies; see "some improvement" in Ireland's job market; clearer Fed policy outlook would benefit global economy.'
On the data front, U.S. retail sales in September came in at -0.1% m/m, weaker than the forecast of 0.1%. U.S. producer price index in September came in at -0.1% m/m and 0.3% y/y, lower than the expectation of 0.2% n 0.6% respectively. U.S. consumer confidence in October came in at 71.2, weaker than the forecast of 75.0, previous reading was revised to 80.2.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan industrial production, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, KOF indicator, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, HICP, CPI, U.K. Lloyds business barometer, EU business climate, Economic sentiment, consumer confidence, U.S. ADP employment, CPI and Fed FOMC rate decision.
AceTraderFx Oct 30 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11130
30 Oct 2013 01:42GMT
Usd's rebound fm Fri's 10935 low suggests fall
fm Sep's high at 11660 has made a temp. low there n
retrace. to 11270 is seen b4 retreat.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated n only below
11000 aborts n risks re-test of said low.
STRATEGY : Buy at 11100
OBJECTIVE : 11250
STOP-LOSS : 11060
RES : 11270/11455/11520
SUP : 11000/10935/10900
AceTraderFx Oct 30 : DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
30 Oct 2013 00:16GMT
Trend Daily Chart : Up
Daily Indicators : Overbought
21 HR EMA : 1.3758
55 HR EMA :1.3774
Trend Hourly Chart :Near term down
Hourly Indicators : Oversold
13 HR RSI :36
14 HR DMI : -ve
Daily Analysis : Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.3883 - 100% proj. of 1.3472-1.3704 fm 1.3651
1.3833 - Last Fri's near 2-year high
1.3813 - Y'day's high
Support
1.3736 - Y'day's low
1.3711 - Feb 01 high
1.3651 - Oct 21 low
. EUR/USD - 1.3735... The single currency ratcheted lower in Asia n Europe y'day n price weakened to 1.3754 near NY open b4 rebounding swiftly but sharply to 1.3813 in NY morning after euro-positive comments fm ECB's Nowotny, then fall to session low at 1.3736 b4 trading sideways.
. Y'day's firm break of previous 1.3741 sup to 1.3736 suggests MT upmove fm 1.2042 (2012 trough) has possibly made a temporary top at 1.3833 (exactly 61.8% r of 1.4940-1.2042) last Fri n as price is currently trading below 21-hr n 55-hr emas (now at 1.3758 n 1.3774 respectively), suggesting as long as res at 1.3813 (y'day's high) holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.3704/11 (Oct 18 high n Feb high resp.), however, low readings on the hourly oscillators shud keep price abv 1.3651/53 (being Oct 21 low n 50% r of intermediate rise fm 1.3472-1.3833 resp.).
. Today, selling on intra-day recovery in anticipation of a stronger cor-
rection to 1.3695 is favoured. Only abv 1.3833 wud confirm MT uptrend has once again resumed n extend twd 1.3883 (100% proj. of 1.3472-1.3704 fm 1.3651).
AceTraderFx Oct 31 : Dollar rallies broadly after FOMC
Market Review - 30/10/2013 21:11GMT
Dollar rallies broadly after FOMC
Dollar strengthened broadly against major currencies on Wednesday after the Fed Reserve left its key benchmark lending target, the Fed funds rate, unchanged at 0.25% and kept its 85USD billion monthly asset-purchasing program in place.
U.S. Federal Reserve stated 'to keep buying $85 billion in bonds per month, split as $40 billion MBS and $45 billion Treasuries; Fed makes no change to it forward guidance on interest rate; data since Sept meeting generally suggests economy continue to expand at moderate pace, recovery housing slowed somewhat in recent months; indicator have showed some further improvement but unemployment remains elevated, fiscal policy restraining growth; repeats that downside risks to outlook have diminished on net since last fall; inflation running below Fed's goal but longer-term expectations stable; to keep Fed funds at 0-0.25% as long as jobless rate above 6.5%, projected inflation no more than 2.5% vote in favor of policy was 9-1; George dissented from concern over potential imbalances and future inflation.'
The single currency found support at 1.3733 in Asian session and then rose to 1.3768 in European morning. Euro moved higher to 1.3778 in New York morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP unemployment change (130K versus forecast of 150K) and then 1.3787 in NY afternoon before tumbling to a session low at 1.3696.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded narrowly in Asian and European session before retreating briefly to 98.08 in New York morning due to release of weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP unemployment change and then 98.06 before rallying to 98.69 after the Fed policy statement.
The British pound fell briefly 1.6025 in Asian session, however, failure to penetrate Tuesday's low at 1.6022 prompted short-covering and lifted price higher in European session. Cable further rose to 1.6079 in New York morning before nose-diving to a session low at 1.5999.
On the data front, U.S. CPI in Sep came in at 0.2% m/m n 1.2% y/y, same as expectation. Germany unemployment change in October came in at 2K, versus the forecast of 0K, previous reading was revised to 24K. Germany Unemployment rate in October came in at 6.9%, same as expectation.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand rate decision, ANZ Business confidence, Australia import price index, export price index, building approvals, Japan manufacturing PMI, BOJ rate decision, housing starts, construction orders, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, nationwide house prices, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, France PPI, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, PPI, EU unemployment rate, CPI, Canada GDP, U.S. jobless claims and Chicago PMI.
AceTraderFx Nov 1 : Euro tumbles on sharp fall in euro zone inflation and record high
Market Review- 31/10/2013 17:37GMT
Euro tumbles on sharp fall in euro zone inflation and record high unemployment
The single currency tumbled against other major currencies on Thursday due to weak euro zone data showing that inflation in the euro zone declined sharply to the lowest level in four years in October together with the record high unemployment rate in September, adding speculation that the European Central Bank may ease monetary policy.
Euro zone unemployment rate in September came in at 12.2%, higher than economists' forecast of 12.0%, previous reading is revised to 12.2%; euro zone CPI estimate in October came in at 0.7% y/y, lower than the forecast of 1.1%.
The single currency met selling interest at 1.3739 in Asian session and ratcheted lower in European session after the release of weak euro zone data. Euro tumbled to 1.3632 ahead of New York open and weakened further due to dollar's broad-based strength after the release of stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI (65.9 versus forecast of 55.0). The pair nose-dived to a session low at 1.3575 near New York afternoon.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback met selling interest at 98.57 in Australia and then ratcheted lower in European session. The dollar further dropped to a session low at 98.08 in New York afternoon before recovering.
Although the British pound dropped to a session low at 1.6006 ahead of European open, failure to penetrate Wednesday’s low at 1.5999 prompted profit-taking. Cable ratcheted higher in European session and rose to a session high at 1.6070 on short-covering in New York morning.
In other news, Bank of Japan's semiannual report stated 'Japan's economy likely to continue to expand at pace exceeding its potential; BoJ to maintain its QE programme until needed to stably achieve 2% inflation; BoJ ready to make necessary policy adjustments while scrutinising upside, downside risks to economy, prices; CPI likely to reach BoJ's 2% target around end of fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2015.’
On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claim came in at 340K, worse than the forecast of 339K. Italy unemployment rate in September came in at 12.5%, worse than the forecast of 12.2%, previous reading was revised to 12.4%. Germany Gfk consumer confidence in November came in at 7.0, versus the forecast of 7.2.
Data to be released on Friday:
Australia PPI, China manufacturing PMI, HSBC Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss PMI, U.K. manufacturing PMI, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing and construction spending on Friday. France financial market is closed due to public holiday.
thnx EUR/USD at the moment buy or sell?
AceTraderFx Nov 1 : Daily Outlook on Asian exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11330
01 Nov 2013 01:28GMT
Usd's rebound fm Fri's 10935 low suggests fall
fm Sep's high at 11660 has made a temp. low there n
retrace. to 11455, then 11520 is seen.
Buy at market with stop as indicated n only below
11270 aborts n risks weakness to 11000.
STRATEGY : Buy at market
OBJECTIVE : 11450
STOP-LOSS : 11280
RES : 11455/11520/11660
SUP : 11270/11000/10935
AceTraderFx Nov 1 : DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
01 Nov 2013 01:34GMT
Trend Daily Chart Sideways
Daily Indicators Turning down
21 HR EMA 1.6041
55 HR EMA 1.6053
Trend Hourly Chart Near term down
Hourly Indicators Neutral
13 HR RSI 49
14 HR DMI -ve
Daily Analysis Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6165 - Hourly res, Oct 28
1.6119 - Last Wed's low, now res
1.6079 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5999 - Y'day's low
1.5940 - Oct 17 low
1.5894 - Oct 16 low
. GBP/USD - 1.6025... Despite initial weakness to 1.6006 ahead of European opening, failure to penetrate Wed's low at 1.5999 prompted active short-covering n price rebounded to 1.6070 due to cross-buying of gbp vs eur in NY morning. However, renewed selling interest pushed cable back down to 1.6031 nr NY close.
. The outlook remains pretty much the same as our prev. update. Looking at the daily n hourly charts, this week's selloff to 1.5999 (Wed) suggests near
term rise fm 1.5894 (Oct 16 low) has ended at 1.6258 last Wed n consolidation below Oct's near 9-month high at 1.6260 wud continue with downside bias. The price action fm 1.6260 cud also be unfolding into a triangle (a-leg at 1.5894, b-leg 1.6258 n present decline is the c-leg), if this view holds true, then then 2-3 more weeks of choppy sideways trading is in store.
. Today, in view of abovementioned scenario, we are holding short for weakness to 1.5975, however, 1.5964 (80.9% r of 1.4894-1.6258) wud hold n yield recovery. On the upside, only abv 1.6119 wud abort bearishness on the pound n risk stronger gain to 1.6165 next week.
*** T.G.I.F. ***
AceTraderFx Nov 4 : Dollar strengthens broadly on strong U.S. data
Market Review - 02/11/2013 01:41GMT
Dollar strengthens broadly on strong U.S. data
Dollar strengthened broadly against its major peer currencies on strong U.S. Markit PMI and ISM manufacturing data, which fuelled speculation that the Fed may start tapering stimulus sooner than expected.
U.S. ISM manufacturing in October came in at 56.4, stronger than the economists' forecast of 55.0. U.S. Markit PMI in October came in at 51.8, better than the expectation of 51.1.
The single currency met selling interest at 1.3590 in Asian trading and ratcheted lower in European session. Euro later tanked to a session low at 1.3478 (Reuters) in New York afternoon due to strong U.S. economic data.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback initially fell to a session low at 97.80 in Asian trading but renewed buying interest there lifted price higher in European session due to the rebound of Nikkei futures. Dollar further rose above Thursday's top at 98.69 to session high at 98.86 in New York morning after the release of strong U.S. economic data before stabilizing.
The British pound met selling interest at 1.6046 in Australian morning and then tanked to 1.5953 in European session in part due to the release of weaker-than-expected U.K. manufacturing PMI in October which came in at 56.0, worse than the forecast of 56.4, previous reading was revised to 56.3. Cable later fell to an intra-day low of 1.5908 in New York afternoon due to dlr's broad-based strength on strong U.S. economic data.
In other news, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's President James Bullard says 'any decision to scale bank bond buying will be data-dependent; likelihood of tapering will continue to rise as labor market continues to show cumulative improvement; would like to see inflation come back up toward target before tapering bond buying; inflation continues to run very low in the U.S. economy; will not speculate on a taper decision in December, says Fed should keep its options open at every meeting.'
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Charles L. Plooser says 'could support setting a limit for bond-buying program; could announce a dollar size to QE3 that would halt it soon; "very high" hurdle for increasing rate of bond buying.'
Data to be released next week:
Australia retail sales, house price index, Italy manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, Sentix investor confidence, U.K. construction PMI, U.S. factory orders, durable goods on Monday.Japan financial market is closed due to public holiday.
Australia RBA rate decision, China HSBC Markit service PMI, Swiss CPI, U.K. BRC retail sales, service PMI, EU PPI, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, U.S. Redbook retail sales, ISM non-manufacturing on Tuesday.
New Zealand unemployment rate, employment change, Australia trade balance, U.K. BRC shop price index, industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy service PMI, France service PMI, Germany service PMI, factory orders, EU service PMI, retail sales, Canada building permits, Ivey PMI, U.S. leading indicators on Wednesday.
Australia employment change, unemployment change, Japan leading indicators, U.K. Lloyds employment confidence, BOE rate decision, BOE asset purchase target, Germany industrial production, ECB rate decision, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, PCE core, jobless claims on Thursday.
China trade balance, export, import, Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, U.K. trade balance, Germany current account, export, import, trade balance, France current account, trade balance, industrial production, manufacturing production, Canada housing starts, net change in unemployment, unemployment rate, U.S. personal income, personal consumption, PCE index, PCE core, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.