Intraday trading signal - page 67
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AceTraderFx Nov 15 : Yen weakens beyond 100 on remarks from Taro Aso
Market Review - 14/11/2013 22:42GMT
Yen weakens beyond 100 on intervention remarks from Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso
Japanese yen weakened against dollar on Thursday, the pair rose above 100 for the first time since September, after earlier comments from Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso, who said "Japan must always be ready to send signal to markets to curb excessive, one-sided forex moves; Japan, as with any country, must set aside necessary reserves to conduct FX intervention when needed.".
The greenback found support at 99.14 against Japanese yen ahead of Tokyo open and then rose to 99.73 in Asian trading. Dollar rose above Tuesday's high at 99.80 to 100.04 in European morning, and then climbed to 100.15 in New York morning after the testimony by Fed's vice chairman Janet Yellen.
The single currency rose to a session high at 1.3499 in Australian morning due to the release of prepared dovish statements from Fed's Vice Chair Janet Yellen but profit taking below 1.3500 pushed price lower in Asian trading. Euro fell to intra-day low at 1.3418 in European morning after release of weaker-than-expected euro zone Q3 GDP, which came in at 0.1% Q/Q and -0.4% Y/Y, worse than the forecast of 0.2% and -0.3% respectively.
However, short covering lifted euro to 1.3489 in New York after Fed’s Janet Yellen testified to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee.
Fed's Vice Chair Janet Yellen said 'strongly committed to promoting robust economic recovery; long spells of unemployment are particularly painful for households; imperative to do what we can to promote strong recovery; expects to maintain highly accommodative policy for some time to come as QE winds down; there are dangers in ending QE too early, and in keeping it place too long; important not to remove bond-buying support when recovery is fragile; believes benefits of bond buying exceed costs; as recovery progresses, need to bring policy back to normal in timely fashion, have the tools; bond buying has made meaning contribution to growth, economic outlook; QE not on a set course, data dependent; QE will not continue forever; says for pace of QE, looking for signs of strong enough growth to continue progress in economy; no set time on determining when to reduce bond buying; weak demand for goods, services is major drag on economy.’
The British pound retreated to 1.6027 in Asian trading and then dropped to 1.5988 in European morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.K. retail sales. However, renewed buying interest there lifted price higher in New York morning and climbed to a session high at 1.6101 on Fed's Janet Yellen’s comments.
U.K. retail sales in October came in at -0.7% m/m and 1.8% y/y, worse than the forecast of 0.0% and 3.1% respectively.
On the data front, Germany GDP in Q3 came in at 0.3% q/q and 1.1% y/y, same as the expectation. France GDP in Q3 came in at -0.1% q/q and 0.2% y/y, lower than the forecast of 0.0% and 0.3% respectively. U.S. initial jobless claim came in at 339K, worse than the forecast of 330K, previous reading was revised to 341K.
Data to be released on Friday:
Italy trade balance, current account, EU CPI, U.S. export price index, import price index, Empire State manufacturing, industrial production, capacity utilisation, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and Canada existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Nov 15 : Asian Exotic Daily Outlook on USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1064.60
15 Nov 2013 05:24GMT
Dlr's intra-day decline suggests rise fm Oct's
1054.3 low has made a temp. top at 1074.3 Wed n
retrace. of said upmove to 1058/59 is envisaged.
Sell dlr on intra-day recovery for this move n
only abv 1068.6 risks stronger gain to 1071.7.
STRATEGY : Sell at 1065.5
OBJECTIVE : 1059.0
STOP-LOSS : 1068.8
RES : 1071.7/1074.3/1077.3
SUP : 1065.9/1062.5/1058.7
AceTraderFx Nov 15 : Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
15 Nov 2013
Trend Daily Chart : Up
Daily Indicators : Rising
21 HR EMA : 0.9166
55 HR EMA :0.9168
Trend Hourly Chart : Sideways
Hourly Indicators : Rising
13 HR RSI : 59
14 HR DMI :+ve
Daily Analysis :Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
0.9251 - Last Thur's 6-week high
0.9226 - Tue's high
0.9201 - Wed's high
Support
0.9123 - Wed's late NY low
0.9091 - Last Mon's low
0.9029 - 61.8% r of 0.8891-0.9251
. USD/CHF - 0.9178 ... Despite staging a brief bounce fm Wed's low at 0.9123 to 0.9189 on Thur, renewed selling interest below Wed's high at 0.9201 pressured price to 0.9137 in NY morning after Thur's testimony by Fed's vice chair Janet Yellen. The pair then rebounded to 0.9172 b4 trading sideways.
. Looking at the daily chart, as mentioned in our previous update, Wed's
breach of 0.9134 to 0.9123 suggests upmove fm Oct's 23-month low at 0.8891 has made a 6-week high at 0.9251 last Thur n marginal weakness twds 0.9113 (38.2% r of 0.8891-0.9251) cannot be ruled out but reckon 0.9091/98 sup area wud contain downside n yield rebound later. On the upside, a breach of res at 0.9201 (Wed's high) wud confirm the correction is over n yield resumption of the Oct's rise fm 0.8891 to retrace MT downtrend fm 2012 peak at 0.9972 (Jul) to re-test 0.9246/51 res area, abv wud extend to 0.9304 (38.2% r of MT fall fm 0.9972-0.8891).
. Today, buying dlr on next decline in anticipation of a rebound is still
favoured. On the downside, only a daily close below 0.9091 wud risk stronger
retracement to 0.9024/29 (prev. res, now sup n 61.8% r fm 0.8891 resp.).
AceTraderFx Nov 18 : Dollar falls broadly on weaker-than-expected U.S. data
Market Review - 16/11/2013 03:43GMT
Dollar falls broadly on weaker-than-expected U.S. data
Euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, fanning market speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain its stimulus program for the time being, the Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P 500 both climbed to record highs on Friday following Fed Chair nominee Janet Yellen's dovish testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee Thursday.
U.S. Empire State manufacturing index in November came in at -2.21, worse than the forecast of 5.00 whilst U.S. industrial production in October came in at -0.1%, weaker than street forecast of 0.2%, previous month's reading was revised from 0.6% to 0.7%.
Earlier in quiet Asian session, the single currency move narrowly and then retreated to 1.3433 in European morning, however, buying interest quickly emerged and lifted the pair. Euro later climbed to session highs of 1.3506 in New York morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data before stabilising in New York afternoon.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback retreated from 100.31 in Asian trading to 99.93 ahead of European open. However, renewed buying interest there lifted price and the pair climbed to intra-day 2-week high of 100.43 in European morning on renewed cross-selling in yen before retreating to 100.10 in New York morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. industrial production and Empire State manufacturing index.
The British pound ratcheted higher from 1.6052 (Australia) to 1.6090 in European morning before retreating briefly to intra-day low at 1.6048 due to active cross-selling sterling versus euro. Cable then quickly rebounded on renewed buying interest and climbed to a session highs of 1.6136 in New York morning after release of weaker-than-expected U.S. data and also comments from Bank of England’s policy maker Martin Weale.
Bank of England’s policy maker Martin Weale said 'guidance increased importance of CPI expectation; pound strength has lowered inflation; euro-area problems have become more manageable; pound has posted concern about balance of payments; U.K. consumer confidence has improved; BoE can't look the other way on CPI expectations; U.K. economy may grow faster than BoE has forecast; there has been "an upturn: in CPI expectation.'
In other news, ECB's executive board member Yves Mersch says 'we have the possibility, have other instruments to flood the economy with liquidity if necessary; we have to option to do outright purchases, but euro area doesn't have single sovereign signature so no surprise that we chose other instruments; we still reserve the right to do other measures in the futures.
Data to be released next week :
U.K. Rightmove house prices, EU current account, trade balance, U.S. net LT TIC flows, NAHB housing market index on Monday.
Australia RBA policy meeting minutes, Japan leading indicators, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current condition, EU ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. Redbook retail sales on Tuesday.
Japan export, import, trade balance, all industry index, Germany PPI, U.K. BoE releases MPC minutes, Swiss ZEW index, U.S. CPI, retail sales, existing home sales, business inventories, FOMC minutes, Canada wholesale sales on Wednesday.
Japan BOJ rate decision, machine tools orders, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, CBI industrial trend, U.S. jobless claims, PPI, PCE, Markit PMI and Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday.
Japan BoJ monthly economic report, Germany GDP, export, import, Ifo current assessment, Ifo business climate, Canada CPI and retail sales on Friday.
AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
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AceTraderFx Nov 18:Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1060.5
18 Nov 2013 05:30GMT
Usd's breach of Fri's low at 1063.3 suggests
decline fm 1074.2 (Wed) has resumed n further weak-
ness to Oct's low at 1054.6 wud be seen.
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated, abv
wud risk stronger pullback to 1071.7.
STRATEGY : Hold short
POSITION : Short at 1060.5
OBJECTIVE : 1055.0
STOP-LOSS : 1062.5
RES : 1071.7/1074.3/1077.3
SUP : 1060.5/1058.7/1054.6
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AceTraderFx Nov 18 : GBP/USD Elliott Wave analysis (weekly)
'WEEKLY' ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ON GBP/USD
15 Nov 2013 16:02GMT
. GBP/USD - 1.6091 ... Despite cable's impulsive rally fm Jul's 3-year low at 1.4814 to as high as 1.6260, subsequent retreat to 1.5854 suggests minor consolidation wud be seen b4 rising further to 1.6380 res n possibly twds 1.6491 later, however, key daily res at 1.6747 shud hold on 1st testing.
. Let's recap the previous count, decline fm 2012 Apr's peak at 1.6747
marked the terminus of a triangle C-leg (see the larger degree wave count
below), D-leg:1.6747-1.5234 n E-leg:1.5234-1.6380, subsequent selloff fm there has developed into a 3-legged decline n has ended at 1.4814 in July, current rally fm there is impulsive with wave 1.4814-1.5435: 2:1.5102 n wave 3 is now unfolding n gain to 1.6344/80 (2 times ext. of 1.4814-1.5435 measured fm 1.5102 n chart res), abv wud encourage for further rise to 1.6491 (2.236 times extension) but 1.6728/47 (2.618 times extension n 2012 Apr's peak) wud hold.
On the downside, only below 1.5718/53 (prev. sup, now res) wud signal a temporary top is made n risk stronger retracement twds Sep's low at 1.5427.
------------------- *** LARGER DEGREE WAVE COUNT *** ---------------------------
21 NOV 2011... Cable's 3-legged rise fm 1985 record low of 1.0370 signals an (A)-(B)-(C) wave has completed at 2.1162 (07'), the subsequent impulsive decline is an x-wave with wave (3) bottom at 1.3500, the choppy consolidation fm there is turning into a triangle with A-1.7044, B-1.4228, C-1.6747, D-leg is either ended at 1.5234 or may extend weakness to 1.4690-1.4781 area.
AceTraderFx Nov 19: Dollar and yen falls broadly on risk appetite due to China reform
Market Review - 18/11/2013 21:07GMT
Dollar and yen falls broadly on risk appetite due to China reforms
U.S. dollar weakened broadly against major currencies on renewed risk appetite after China announced its most sweeping economic and social reforms in nearly three decades.
China shares posted their biggest gain in more than two months on Monday. The China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong soared 5.7%, the biggest daily gain since Dec. 1, 2011. European and U.S. stock markets also hit their highest levels since the start of 2008.
The greenback rose briefly to 100.39 against the Japanese yen in Asian morning before retreating to 99.78 in European morning on cross buying in jpy. The single currency continued to ratchet higher from November's low at 1.3295 to as high as 1.3542 in New York morning before retreating to 1.3496 in late New York after comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley.
The British pound also rose versus U.S. dollar to fresh near 3-week high at 1.6149 in European morning before retreating to 1.6082 in late New York on profit-taking. The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose against U.S. dollar to 0.9419 and 0.8407 respectively in European morning due to renewed risk appetite before retreating in late New York.
In other news, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, an influential U.S. central banker who has been one of the staunchest supporters of easy-money policies, on Monday said he was "getting more hopeful" on prospects for the beleaguered U.S. economic recovery. William pointed to an improvement in the labor market last month and better-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter. He predicted a rise in economic growth next year and in 2015. William added later that the Federal Reserve has not yet seen enough U.S. economic growth momentum to convince policymakers of a sustained improvement in the labor market outlook.
Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Risk Management Association, "we cannot continue to play this bond-buying game by ear and risk the Fed's credibility while creating lingering uncertainty about the course of monetary policy;
Improved economic and labor market conditions suggest the U.S. central bank should set a fixed dollar amount on its current bond-buying program and end the program when that amount is reached.
Tuesday will see the release of Australia RBA policy meeting minutes, Japan leading indicators, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current condition, EU ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. Redbook and retail sales data.
AceTraderFx Nov 19 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11610
19 Nov 2013 04:06GMT
As usd has staged rebound, suggesting pullback
fm 11670 (Wed) has ended at 11513 (Thur) n consoli-
dation with upside bias wud be seen for 11740.
Hold long with stop as indicated, below wud risk
stronger pullback to 11550.
STRATEGY : Long at 11640
POSITION : Long at 11640
OBJECTIVE : 11740
STOP-LOSS : 11590
RES : 11670/11700/11750
SUP : 11550/11513/11470
AceTraderFx Nov 19 : Intra-Day Outlook on Major USD/JPY
Intra-Day USD/JPY Outlook
19 Nov 2013 08:05 GMT
As dlr has fall again after recovering fm 99.57
to 99.93, suggesting downside bias remains for the
decline fm last Fri's 2-month peak at 100.43 to
resume soon for marginal weakness but nr term loss
of momentum shud keep price abv 99.35.
Lower short entry for 99.50, stop as indicated,
abv wud defer but res at 100.20 shud remain intact.
Rate
99.72
Strategy/Entry Level
Sell at 99.90
Objective
99.50
Stop-Loss
100.10
Range Forecast
99.57 / 99.90
Resistance
R: 99.96 /100.20/100.43
Support
S: 99.57 / 99.35/ 99.10
AceTraderFx Nov 20: Dollar falls broadly ahead of Wednesday's speech by Fed's Ben B..
Market Review - 19/11/2013 21:53GMT
Dollar falls broadly ahead of Wednesday's speech by Fed's Ben Bernanke
The dollar declined against majority of its peers on speculation Federal Reserve members will reiterate their pledge to keep monetary policy loose as Fed's Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver speech on Wednesday at 00:00GMT.
Although the single currency traded sideways in Asia and spiked briefly to session high at 1.3543 in early European morning, price swiftly pared intra-day gains and fell to an intra-day low at 1.3488 at New York open. However, the pair later rose again n strengthened to 1.3548 in New York morning after Fed's Vice Chair Janet Yellen said in a letter to a U.S. lawmaker that a "strong majority" of Federal Reserve policymakers think its program of massive bond purchases has helped spur U.S. growth and hiring, but are aware of potential risks.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback came under heavy selling pressure in Australia and fell sharply to an intra-day low at 99.57 in Asian morning. However, renewed buying there lifted the pair n price rose to session high at 100.25 in late New York session.
The British pound traded sideways in Asia n despite brief spike to session high at 1.6128 in European morning, price pared its gains n retreated sharply to 1.6060 after a UK debt auction. However, cable later rallied to an intra-day high of 1.6138 in later New York.
On the data front, German ZEW economic sentiment rises to 54.6 from 52.8 previously whilst ZEW current conditions drops to 28.7 from prev. reading of 29.7.
In other news, ECB's Asmussen said 'our monetary policy will stay expansionary for as long as needed; too early to exit from loose monetary policy in Eurozone; can act again if inflation situation requires it; would be very careful to cut deposit rate below 0, don't want to rule out fundamentally; risks to price stability are balanced, no risks of deflation.'
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said 'the Federal Reserve should wait until next year, possibly until March, before beginning to wind down its massive bond-purchase program.' Evans added that "a couple more meetings to have greater assurance that the labor market improvement is sustainable would be quite welcome."