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AceTraderFx Aug 21, 2013 : Intraday Outlook on Majors EUR/GBP
INTRA-DAY EUR/GBP OUTLOOK - 0.8552
21 Aug 2013 07:34GMT
Despite euro's marginal gain abv y'day's top at
0.8573 to 0.8578, subsequent retreat suggests con-
solidation with downside bias is seen for weakness
to 0.8539/42, however, reckon price wud hold well
abv 0.8512 sup n bring rebound.
Sell on recovery n only abv 0.8578 wud risk
stronger retrace. of decline fm 0.8770 twd 0.8599
STRATEGY : Sell at 0.8560
OBJECTIVE : 0.8540
STOP-LOSS : 0.8570
FORECAST : 0.8540 / 0.8560
RES : 0.8578/0.8599/0.8610
SUP : 0.8539/0.8512/0.8505
AceTraderfx Aug 22 : The single currency drops broadly after Fed minutes
Market Review - 21/08/2013 21:24GMT
The single currency drops broadly after Fed minutes
The single currency fell on Wednesday as Fed minutes for July 30-31 meeting showed that the board support the timeline for tapering, however, the minutes reported only a few policymakers thought it would soon be time to 'slow somewhat' the pace of the central bank's bond-buying, while others emphasized patience in deciding when to start to wind down the stimulus program.
Fed minutes showed 'almost all FOMC members agreed change to Fed's asset purchase program not yet appropriate at Jul meeting; a few members stressed patience in decision to reduce bond buys; a few others suggested might soon be time to "slow somewhat' purchase pace; U.S. jobless rate had dropped "considerably" since QE3 began, but some other measures showed more modest labor market gains; inflation persistently below 2% target could pose risks to economy; several Fed participants willing to consider lowering 6.5% unemployment threshold for interest rates if easier policy needed; a few participants worried changes to forward guidance could undermine policy effectiveness; some participants concerned that higher market rates could be significant factor restraining economic growth.'
Earlier in the day, euro traded narrowly in Asian session and edged lower to 1.3381 in Europe and then 1.3354 in New York morning due to dollar's broad-based strength. The single currency weakened further to 1.3335 after release of Fed minutes in New York afternoon but recovered to 1.3396 due to profit-taking.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar's brief drop to 97.13 in Asia due to the decline in Japan's Nikkei-225 index, dollar's broad-based strength lifted the pair to 97.68 at Asian midday and then 97.76 in New York morning after the release of strong U.S. existing home sales (6.5% versus the forecast of 1.6%). Later, usd/jpy rose further to 97.98 in New York afternoon after the Fed minutes.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asian morning and then rose above Tuesday's top at 1.5696 to 1.5702 in European session due to cross buying of sterling versus euro. Later, cable posted a brief spike to a fresh 8-week top 1.5716 in New York afternoon but only to drop to 1.5665 before renewed buying pushed sterling marginally higher to 1.5618.
On the data front, U.K. PSNB in Jul came in at at -1.635 billion sterling, higher than the expectation of -4.65 billion. U.K. CBI manufacturing order book balance came in at 0, the highest since Aug 2011, versus the previous -12. U.S. existing home sales came in at 6.5%, much better than the forecast of 1.6% n the revised -1.6% in June.
In other news, ECB's Asmussen said 'come to Athens to take stock of current programme, see what situation is; key now is to create growth n jobs in Greece; nothing to add to Euro group decisions fm last Nov, pledging support to Greece until it regains market access; will look at how things unfold in Greece but not b4 spring next year.'
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan machine tools orders, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France manufacturing PMI, service PMI, German manufacturing PMI, service PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, service PMI, Canada CPI, U.S. jobless claims, Markit PMI, house price index, leading indicators.
AceTraderfx Aug 22, 2013 : Daily Market Outlook on Minors/Crosses AUD/USD
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.8988
22 Aug 2013 01:48GMT
Y'day's anticipated selloff to 0.8966 confirms
corrective rise fm Aug's 3-year low at 0.8848 has
has indeed ended at 0.9234 n consolidation with
downside bias remains for further weakness twds
0.8920 but price wud hold well abv 0.8848 today.
Sell on recovery for 0.8940 with stop as indica
ted, abv may risk stronger gain to 0.9099 b4 down.
STRATEGY : Stop hit
POSITION : Short at 0.8938
STOP-LOSS : 0.8988
RES : 0.9058/0.9099/0.9133
SUP : 0.8966/0.8920/0.8848
AceTraderFx Aug 23: Dollar rises to two-week high against the yen on QE tapering.....
Market Review - 22/08/2013 21:22GMT
Dollar rises to two-week high against the yen on QE tapering expectations
The greenback strengthened to a two-week high against the Japanese yen on Thursday as the Federal Reserve's minutes, which was released on Wednesday, supported the view that the central bank will pare its stimulus measures in September.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar traded with a firm undertone throughout the day. The pair jumped to 98.33 in Asia due to rebound in Japanese equities and then rose above last Thursday's top at 98.66 to a two-week high at 98.83 in Europe on active cross selling of yen versus other currencies. However, price retreated to 98.41 after the release of the higher-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims (336K versus the forecast of 330K) before stabilising.
Although the single currency traded narrowly in Asia and then dropped to 1.3322 in European morning due to the weak French manufacturing and services PMI (49.7 and 47.7, versus the forecasts of 50.3 and 49.2), price rebounded to 1.3364 after the release of strong German and euro zone PMIs but only to fall to 1.3299 due to cross selling in euro versus sterling. However, the worse-than-expected U.S. jobless claims lifted euro to 1.3373 in New York morning and price then stabilised for the rest of the day.
German manufacturing and services PMI in August were released at 52.0 and 52.4, stronger than the forecasts of 51.2 and 51.8. Euro zone manufacturing PMI in August came in at 51.0, better then the forecast of 50.2 whilst service PMI in Aug came in at 51.7, stronger than the expectation of 50.2.
The British pound extended steep fall from Wednesday's two-month peak at 1.5718 to 1.5588 in Asian morning. Despite cable's brief recovery to 1.5623 in European morning, cross selling of sterling versus euro pressured price to 1.5563 before staging a recovery to 1.5614 in New York morning on weak U.S. jobs data. Gbp/usd then moved in a choppy fashion above said session low for rest of the New York session.
On the data front, U.S. Markit PMI preliminary came in at 53.9, versus the forecast of 54.2. U.S. leading index in July was released at 0.6%, better than the forecast of 0.5%. U.S. housing price index m/m was released at 0.7%, versus the revised 0.8% in May.
Data to be released on Friday :
Germany GDP, export, import, U.K. GDP, BBA mortgage approvals, EU consumer confidence, Canada CPI, U.S. new home sales.
AceTraderfx Aug 23, 2013 : DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON Majors -GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
23 Aug 2013 00:08GMT
Trend Daily Chart:Sideways
Daily Indicators:Rising
21 HR EMA: 1.5597
55 HR EMA: 1.56620
Trend Hourly Chart: Near term down
Hourly Indicators: Falling
13 HR RSI: 47
14 HR DMI: -ve
Daily Analysis: Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.5753 - Jun 17 high
1.5718 - Wed's high
1.5666 - Wed's NY res
Support
1.5563 - Y'day's low
1.5520 - Last Thur's NY low
1.5496 - Last Thur's Australian low
. GBP/USD - 1.5600 ... The British pound ratcheted lower in Asia n Europe y'day n cable dropped to an intra-day low of 1.5563 on dlr's broad-based strength, however, the pound rebounded briefly to 1.5614 on short-covering after the release of worse-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data b4 trading sideways.
. As mentioned in our previous update, the reversal fm Wed's high at 1.5718 signals recent erratic upmove fm Jul's 3-year low at 1.4814 has formed a temp. top there n as hourly technical indicators are still declining, suggesting a much-needed correction has taken place n as long as 1.5666 (Wed's NY res) holds, choppy consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness twds 1.5520 sup (last Thur's NY low) but anticipated low readings on hourly oscillators shud limit downside to 1.5483 (38.2% r of 1.5102-1.5718) n yield rebound later.
. Today, selling cable again on intra-day recovery in anticipation of further weakness is favoured n only a breach of 1.5666 res wud signal the pullback is over instead n yield resumption of aforesaid upmove fm 1.4814 to 1.5718, abv wud encourage for re-test of key daily res at 1.5753 (Jun).
AceTraderfx Aug 26 : Dollar weakens broadly due to weak U.S. new home sales
Market Review- 23/08/2013 21:33GMT
Dollar weakens broadly due to weak U.S. new home sales
The greenback fell against euro and yen on Friday as the worse-than-expected U.S. new home sales signalled that U.S. economy still needs stimulus measures to support its growth.
The single currency edged lower to 1.3335 in European morning but then staged a recovery to 1.3371 due partly to the comments from ECB's policymaker Nowotny who said 'does not see many arguments now for a rate cut.' Later, despite brief fall to 1.3333 in New York morning, euro rose strongly to 1.3410 on dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of worse-than-expected U.S. new home sales (-13.4% versus the expectation of -2.0%) and then stabilised for the rest of the day.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback extended recent upmove to 99.14 in European morning before pullback to 98.74. Later, despite dollar's marginal gain to a fresh 2-week top at 99.15 in New York morning, the pair fell sharply to 98.38 after the release of U.S. new home sales.
Although the British pound traded narrowly in Asia and then jumped to 1.5638 in European morning after the release of better-than-expected U.K. GDP (0.7% m/m and 1.5% y/y, versus the forecasts of 0.6% and 1.4%), active cross selling of sterling versus euro pressured the pair below Thursday's low at 1.5563 to 1.5538 in New York morning but only to climbed back to 1.5597 in tandem with euro on dollar's broad-based weakness.
In other news, Fed's Lockhart said 'expect 2-2.5% GDP growth in rest of year; needs data showing sustainable economic growth in order to reduce QE3 in Sep; too early to tell whether recent private-market rate rises will create economic contraction.' Fed's Bullard said 'don't need to be any hurry to taper QE3 in Sep; we can afford to be deliberate in decision on QE3 due to data; QE3 has been very successful in easing market conditions, less clear the effect on economy.' Fed's Williams said 'decision to taper QE3 will depend on growth in job creation, stronger inflation; we should reduce asset purchase later this year; tapering QE3 wud come in gradual series of steps; expect significant step up in U.S. economy growth later this year and in 2014; low level of inflation is a concern but as long as it progresses as we've seen "feels good about that".'
Data to be released next week :
Monday: New Zealand trade balance, import, export, U.S. durable goods. U.K. financial market is closed on Monday due to public holiday.
Tuesday: Germany Ifo business climate, current assessment, U.S. retail sales, S&P home price index, consumer confidence.
Wednesday: Swiss consumption indicator, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributes trades, U.S. pending home sales.
Thursday: New Zealand ANZ business confidence, Australia HIA new home sales, Japan retail sales, France business climate, Italy consumer confidence, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, U.K. business barometer, U.S. GDP, jobless claims, personal consumption, PCE core, Canada PPI.
Friday: Japan manufacturing PMI, household spending, unemployment rate, CPI, industrial production, housing starts, Swiss KOF indicator, EU economic sentiment, business climate, consumer confidence, unemployment rate, CPI, Italy unemployment rate , CPI, HICP, PPI, Canada GDP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE index, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderfx Aug 26 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK – 10810
26 Aug 2013 05:19GMT
Usd's recent rally signals LT uptrend remains in
force n further gain wud be seen but o/bot condi-
tion wud prevent sharp rise abv 11000.
Hold long for this move n stop as indicated, be-
low wud defer bullishness n risk 10450.
STRATEGY: Long at 10730
POSITION: Long at 10730
OBJECTIVE : 10950
STOP-LOSS : 10730
RES : 10900/11000/11200
SUP : 10450/10400/10350
AceTraderfx Aug 27 : Dollar rebounds versus yen despite weak U.S. durable goods
Market Review - 26/08/2013 21:57GMT
Dollar rebounds versus yen despite weak U.S. durable goods
The greenback staged a rebound versus the Japanese yen on Monday, despite the fact that the weak U.S. durable goods raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may not withdraw its stimulus measures in September.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar's initial gap-down opening to 98.17 in New Zealand, the pair rebounded strongly to 98.85 in Asia partly due to the rise in Japanese equities, however, renewed cross buying of yen versus other currencies pressured the pair to 98.44 in European morning. Later, although the greenback briefly recovered to 98.67, the pair retreated to 98.27 in New York morning after the release of worse-than-expected U.S durable goods before paring intra-day losses.
U.S. durable goods, ex-transportation and ex-defense came in at -7.3%, -0.6% and -6.7%, worse the forecasts of 4.0%, 0.5% n 2.9% respectively.
The single currency edged lower from New Zealand top at 1.3393 and dropped to 1.3364 in European morning on cross selling of euro versus yen. Later, despite a brief dip to 1.3357 in New York morning, the pair rebounded 1.3394 due the worse-than-expected U.S. durable goods before retreating and then traded inside the range for the rest of the day.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asia and rose briefly to 1.5588 in thin European morning due to the U.K. holiday. Later, despite a brief fall to 1.5556 in New Work morning, the pound jumped swiftly to 1.5612 due to dollar's broad based weakness before retreating.
In other news, ECB's Weidmann said 'ECB government bond purchases would weaken countries' own responsibility to solve problems; best way for ECB to contribute to crisis solution is by preserving price stability; governments bond holding should be capped, backed by sufficient capital similar to corporate bonds.' BoE's Bean said 'forward guidance sends clear signal that rates not likely to rise imminently.'
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Germany Ifo business climate, current assessment, U.S. retail sales, S&P home price index, consumer confidence on Tuesday.
AceTraderfx Aug 27, 2013: Forex Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2836
27 Aug 2013 06:49GMT
Usd's rebound fm Mon's 1.2776/77 low signals pull
back fm last Thur's 13-mth peak at 1.2862 has ended
there n abv said top wud extend gain twd 1.2893.
Hold long for this move n only a daily close be-
low 1.2776 may risk stronger retrace. to 1.2734.
STRATEGY: Long at 1.2800
POSITION : Long at 1.2800
OBJECTIVE : 1.2870
STOP-LOSS : 1.2775
RES : 1.2862/1.2893/1.2927
SUP : 1.2776/1.2734/1.2678
AceTraderfx Aug 28: Yen & swiss franc rise broadly on escalation of tension in Syria
Market Review - 27/08/2013 21:37GMT
Yen and swiss franc rise broadly on escalation of tension in Syria
The Japanese yen rallied sharply higher against other currencies on Tuesday on demand for the safe-haven currencies including the Swiss franc as U.S. and its allies poised to take military action against the Syrian government. The selloff in global and emerging stock markets also supported the Japanese yen.
Earlier in Asia, despite dollar's brief recovery against the yen from 98.05 to 98.39, the pair fell sharply due to the weakness in Japan's Nikkei N225 index. Intra-day decline then accelerated in European morning on active cross buying of yen versus other currencies on risk aversion as the geopolitical tension in Syria escalated. The pair eventually hit session low at 96.99 in New York afternoon before stabilising.
The single currency went through a roller-coaster session on Tuesday. Despite initial brief rise to 1.3391 in Asian morning, renewed selling interest pressured the pair to 1.3356 in European morning, price then tumbled to a low at 1.3322 on active cross selling of euro versus yen together with the selloff in European equities due to the geopolitical tension in Syria. Later, although euro dipped to 1.3328 in New York morning, dollar's weakness after the release of lower-than-expected U.S home price index lifted the pair above 1.3391 to 1.3399 before stabilising in New York afternoon.
U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller home price index came in at 0.9% m/m and 12.2% y/y, versus the forecast of 1.0% and 12.1%.
Despite cable's initial brief recovery to 1.5592, the pair dropped to 1.5562 in Asian morning, active cross selling of sterling versus euro together with the steep fall in eur/usd pressured the pair to 1.5500 in European morning. Later, although the pound fell further to a 1-week low at 1.5482 in New York morning, dollar's weakness lifted the pair to 1.5556.
On the data front, U.S. consumer confidence came in at 81.5, better than the forecast of 79.0. German Ifo business climate in Aug came in at 107.5, better than the forecast of 107.0. Current assessment was released at 112.0, stronger than the expectation of 111.0.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Swiss consumption indicator, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Import price index, U.K. CBI distributes trades, U.S. pending home sales.