Intraday trading signal - page 66

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AceTraderFx Nov 8 : Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF

08 Nov 2013 00:25GMT

Trend Daily Chart :Sideways

Daily Indicators :Rising up

21 HR EMA : 0.9157

55 HR EMA :0.9139

Trend Hourly Chart : Up

Hourly Indicators : Falling fm o/bot

13 HR RSI :56

14 HR DMI : +ve

Daily Analysis : Choppy consolidation to take place

Resistance

0.9304 - 38.2% r of 0.9972-0.8891

0.9251 - Y'day's high

0.9217 - Y'day's hourly res

Support

0.9134 - Y'day's NY low

0.9098 - Wed's low

0.9024 - Last Thur's high

.USD/CHF - 0.9168... The pair tracked eur/usd's movement very closely in inverse manner on Thur. Despite dlr's rally to 0.9251 due to the selloff in euro after ECB's rate cut, profit-taking capped dlr's upside n price fell sharply to 0.9151 on renewed risk aversion due to the selloff in U.S. equities.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite y'day's resumption of upmove fm Oct's near 2-year trough of 0.8891 to 0.9251 to retrace MT downtrend fm 0.99 72 (July 2012), the subsequent strg retreat strongly suggests a temporary top is in place n sevel days of choppy consolidation is in store b4 prospect of another leg of upmove occurs later next week, below 0.9134 (reaction low fm 0.9251) wud add credence to this view, however, 0.9071, being a 'natural' 50% r of the entire rise fm 0.8891 as well as chart sup, wud contain weakness. Looking ahead, abv 0.9251 wud extend subsequent headway twd 0.9365 (50% r of intermediate fall fm 0.9839-08891).

. Today, we're trading dlr on both sides of the market n will sell on intra

-day recovery or buy on next decline in anticipation of another rebound.

 

AceTraderFx Nov 11 : Dollar rallies after U.S. payrolls beat estimates

Market Review - 09/11/2013 02:13GMT

Dollar rallies after U.S. payrolls beat estimates

Dollar strengthened against other currencies on Friday after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls fuelled renewed speculation the Federal Reserve could soon begin tapering its stimulus program. U.S. non-farm payroll in October came in at 204K, much higher than the economists' forecasts of 125K, previous reading was revised higher to 163K from 148k.

The single currency retreated to 1.3389 ahead of European open due to the downgrade of France sovereign credit rating by S&P, however, price quickly rebounded and ratcheted higher to 1.3432 in European morning. Euro briefly climbed to 1.3438 in New York morning. The pair tanked to session low of 1.3318 after release of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, however, active short-covering above Thursday's 7-week low at 1.3295 lifted the pair in New York afternoon. Euro last traded around 1.3370 near New York close.

S&P lowered France sovereign credit rating to AA from AA+. S&P revised France sovereign credit outlook to stable from negative.

Versus Japanese yen, the greenback traded narrowly in Asian and European morning sessions. Dollar later retreated to 97.97 in New York morning and then jumped to an intra-day high of 99.22 on strong U.S. job data before stabilizing in New York afternoon.

The British pound traded narrowly in Asian session and then fell to 1.6060 in European morning. Cable later tumbled to intra-day low at 1.5957 in New York morning after release of strong U.S. jobs report.

In other news, French President Francois Hollande said economic policy his government is pursuing is the only one that can ensure France's credibility; government will take all necessary saving measures without endanger France's Welfare model; low market interest rates are testament to France's credibility.

On the data front, University of Michigan confidence in November came in at 72.0, weaker than market forecast of 74.5. France industrial production in September came in at -0.5% m/m and -0.9% y/y, versus the expectation of 0.1% and -0.9%, previous reading was revised to 0.7% n -2.0% respectively. France manufacturing production in September came in at -0.7% m/m and -1.3% y/y, stronger economists’ forecast of 0.4% n -1.1%, previous reading is revised to 0.9% and -2.7% respectively.

Data to be released next week :

Japan current account, Economic watch DI, Australia home loans, Italy industrial production on Monday. Financial markets in France, Canada and U.S. will be closed due to public holiday.

Australia NAB business condition, NAB business confidence, Japan tertiary industry index, consumer confidence, machine tools orders, U.K. RICS house prices, CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS house price, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, HICP, U.S. Chicago Fed index, Redbook retail sales on Tuesday.

Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan machinery orders, domestic CGPI, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average earnings 3 months, BoE releases quarterly inflation report, EU industrial production, U.S. Fed budget on Wednesday.

New Zealand business PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, Japan GDP, industrial production, capacity utilisation, France GDP, Germany GDP, France HICP, CPI, Italy GDP, U.K. retail sales, EU GDP, U.S. jobless claims, Canada new housing price index, trade balance, exports, imports on Thursday.

Italy trade balance, current account, EU CPI, U.S. export price index, import price index, Empire State manufacturing, industrial production, capacity utilisation, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and Canada existing home sales on Friday.

 

AceTraderFx Nov 11 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW

DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1071.0

11 Nov 201305:58GMT

Usd's sharp gap-up open n subsequent rise signals

rise fm Oct's low at 1054.3 remains in force n fur-

ther gain to 1074.0 is seen b4 retreat.

Look to buy on dips as only below sup 1062.5 wud

indicate a temp. top has been made, risk 1058.7.

STRATEGY : Stand aside

RES : 1071.9/1074.0/1077.3

SUP : 1062.5/1058.7/1054.3

 

AceTraderFx Nov 12 : Euro rebounds on active cross-buying

Market Review - 11/11/2013 19:39GMT

Euro rebounds on active cross-buying

The single currency strengthened against other currencies on Monday due to active short-covering together with cross buying in euro. However, trading was relatively thin due to public holidays in U.S. and France.

Euro found support at 1.3345 in Australia morning and ratcheted higher in European session on active-cross buying euro versus other currencies (eur/jpy rose from 132.21 to 133.16, euro/gbp gained from 0.8339 to 0.8396). The pair climbed to an intra-day high at 1.3416 after European closed.

Versus Japanese yen, the greenback met selling interest at 99.24 in New Zealand and then retreated to 98.93 in European morning as Nikkei index futures pared early Asian gains. However, renewed buying interest there lifted price higher and climbed to a session high at 99.30 in New York morning on active cross-selling yen versus euro before moving sideways after European market closed.

The British pound traded narrowly in Asian trading and met selling interest at 1.6022 in European morning due to active cross-selling sterling versus euro. Cable fell to a session low at 1.5964 after European markets closed before recovering.

In other news, EU's Olli Rehn urged Germany to remove bottlenecks to domestic demand and said ‘increase in German domestic demand has been "modest".' EU spokesman Simon O'Connor said 'Portugal program on track; Portugal program set to conclude in spring of next year; doesn't have "specific" Portugal interest rate in mind.'

On the data front, Italy's Industrial production in September came in at 0.2% m/m and -3.0% y/y, versus the expectation of 0.3% and -3.6% respectively.

Data to be released on Tuesday:

Australia NAB business condition, NAB business confidence, Japan tertiary industry index, consumer confidence, machine tools orders, U.K. RICS house prices, CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS house price, Germany CPI, HICP,WPI, Italy CPI, HICP, U.S. Chicago Fed index and Redbook retail sales.

 

AceTraderFx Nov 12 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR

USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11540

12 Nov 2013 01:38GMT

Usd's rally fm Oct's low at 10935 suggests cor-

rection fm Sep's 11660 high has ended there, abv

11580 wud confirm n yield re-test of said res.

Buy on dips with stop as indicated n only below

11420 aborts bullishness, risks 11305.

STRATEGY : Buy at market

OBJECTIVE : 11640

STOP-LOSS : 11500

RES : 11580/11660/11700

SUP : 11420/11305/11270

 

AceTraderFx Nov 13 : US dollar rises versus Japanese yen on Fed tapering expectations

Market Review - 12/11/2013 21:52GMT

U.S. dollar rises versus Japanese yen on Fed tapering expectations

U.S. dollar rose to a 1-month high at 99.80 against the Japanese yen on rising speculation that Fed will sooner tapering its economic stimulus program next month.

The single currency edged lower in Asian trading and then fell to a session low at 1.3359 in European morning, however, renewed buying interest there lifted price higher due to the comment from ECB's Nowotny. The pair later climbed to an intra-day high of 1.3456 in New York morning before stabilizing.

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said 'Deflation not imminent, must be on minds of central bank; there is a lot of nervousness in markets; Rate cut has to be seen in line with forward guidance; Price stability means close to but not above 2%; ECB has to fight both inflation and deflation; Debate was on timing, not substance of measures; Stagnation not inflation is real risk now; Forward guidance helps to stabilize markets.'

Versus Japanese yen, the greenback found support at 99.11 in Australian morning and then ratcheted higher in Asian session due to the rally of Nikkei index. Dollar later rose to intra-day high at 99.80 in European morning before stabilizing in New York trading.

The British pound met selling interest at 1.5992 in Australian morning and then dropped to 1.5965 in Asian trading. Cable later tumbled to session low at 1.5854 in European morning on weaker-than-expected U.K. CPI data which came in at 0.1% in October versus economists' forecast of 0.3%. However, lack of selling through prompted short-covering and cable rebounded strongly to 1.5946 in New York morning before retreating.

In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew says 'data shows core strength of U.S. economy is continuing; calls recent U.S. economic data "quite encouraging"; U.S. economy ending year with "great optimism" Oct. debt-limit tactic likely won't be used again.'

On the data front, Germany CPI in October came in at -0.2% m/m and 1.2% y/y, same as expectation. U.K. RPI in October came in at 0.0% m/m n 2.6% y/y, weaker than the expectation of 0.4% n 3.0% respectively. U.K. ONS house price in September came in at 3.8%, previous reading is revised to 3.7%.Chicago Fed index in September came in 0.14, worse than the forecast of 0.15, previous reading was revised to 0.13.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan machinery orders, domestic CGPI, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average earnings, BoE releases quarterly inflation report, EU industrial production and U.S. Fed budget.

 

AceTraderFx Nov 13 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR

USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11630

13 Nov 2013 04:44GMT

Usd's rally fm Oct's low at 10935 suggests cor-

rection fm Sep's 11660 high has ended there n a re-

test of said res is seen, break, 11700 later.

Buy at market with stop as indicated n only be-

low 11580 (prev. res) wud abort, risk 11420.

STRATEGY : Buy at market

OBJECTIVE : 11700

STOP-LOSS : 11600

RES : 11660/11700/11750

SUP : 11580/11420/11305

 

AceTraderFx Nov 13 : Intra-day Market Moving News and Views

Intra-day Market Moving News and Views

13 Nov 2013 08:04GMT

USD/JPY - 99.56.. Dlr nudges higher ahead of European open after intra-day retreat to 99.43 due partly to weakness in Nikkei, however, downbeat comments by BoJ board member Miyao lifted the pair.

Current firmness in early European trading due partly to marginal gain in the Nikkei futures (currently up by 15 points) suggests near term upside bias remains.

If the N225 futures index continues to make further gain, then re-test of y'day's 8-week high at 99.80, once offers at 99.70/80 are absorbed, dlr is en route twd the psychological mark at 100.00, however, as stated in previous updates, option defence is touted below 100.00. Bids are noted at 99.45-30 area with stops below there, so buying on dips is still favoured.

 

AceTraderFx Nov 14 : Dollar falls on Yellen's dovish comments

Market Review - 13/11/2013 22:27GMT

Dollar falls on Yellen's dovish comments

U.S. dollar tumbled broadly against major currencies on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy was performing 'far short' of potential, suggesting the central bank is in no rush to withdraw its stimulus.

The single currency rose to 1.3453 in Asian trading and then retreated to 1.3408 in European morning. Euro rose to 1.3554 in New York morning before falling to a session low at 1.3390 after the comment from ECB's executive broad member Peter Praet. However, renewed buying interest there lifted price to an intra-day high at 1.3471 in New York afternoon and then 1.3496 after the release of dovish remarks fm Fed's vice chairman Janet Yellen.

ECB's executive board member Peter Praet, quoting from Wall Street Journal, said 'central banks can use balance sheet capacity to lift inflation, including outright asset purchases; ECB still has room in standard measures, including deposit facility.'

Versus Japanese yen, the greenback edged lower in Asian and European Sessions on downbeat comment from Bank of Japan’s Ryuzo Miyao, who said 'Japan's economy is recovering moderately; Focusing somewhat more on downside risks to Japan economy; Japan so far on track to meeting BOJ's 2% price target’. Dollar fell to 99.30 in New York morning and further dropped to an intra-day low of 99.19 in New York afternoon.

The British pound traded narrowly in Asian trading and found support at 1.5879 in European morning. Cable rose to 1.5942 after the release of stronger-than-expected unemployment data and then jumped to 1.6003 due to upbeat Bank of England’s inflation report before retreating to 1.5939. However, renewed buying interest lifted price higher in New York morning and climbed to 1.6048 in New York afternoon n then 1.6067 due to the dovish remarks fm Fed's vice chairman Janet Yellen.

U.K. jobless claims in October came in at -41.7K, better than the forecast of -30.0K, previous reading was revised to -44.7K. U.K. unemployment rate in Sep came in at 7.6%, same as expectation.

Bank of England November inflation report stated 'U.K. recovery has finally taken hold, economy growing robustly but significant headwinds remain; MPC intends to keep exceptionally simulative policy stance until slack has reduced substantially; unemployment likely to fall more quickly than forecast in August, hitting 7% threshold will not necessarily trigger rate rise; MPC sees 41% chance of 7% unemployment at end-2014, 57% at end-2015, 68% at end-2016 based on market interest rates; mean unemployment forecast above 7% through to Q4 2016, based mean unemployment forecast falls to 7.0% in Q4 2014, based on constant interest rate (Aug inflation report: above 7% through to Q3 2016; sees greater than 50% chance unemployment will reach 7% at some point before end of Q3 2015 based on market interest rates; sees 50% chance unemployment will reach 7% at some point before end of Q4 2014, based on constant interest rates (Aug forecast: Q2 2016; shows inflation to first fall below 2% target in Q1 2015 (Aug forecast Q3 2015), based on market rate expectation; forecast shows around one in three chance inflation will exceed 2.5% knock-out in 18-24 months (Aug forecast C.40%); mean growth forecast sees GDP in 2013 +1.6% (Aug +1.4%), 2014 +2.8%% (Aug +2.5%), 2015 +2.3% (Aug +2.3%).'

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand business PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, Japan GDP, industrial production, capacity utilisation, France GDP, Germany GDP, France HICP, CPI, Italy GDP, U.K. retail sales, EU GDP, U.S. jobless claims, Canada new housing price index, trade balance, exports and imports.

 

AceTraderFx Nov 14: Daily Oulook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR

USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11520

14 Nov 2013 07:31GMT

Although price has retreated after y'day's breach

of 11660 to 11670, as said move signals LT rise has

resumed, consolidation with upside bias remains.

Buy on dips for re-test of said res n only below

11420 wud abort n risk retrace. to 11305.

STRATEGY : Long at 11520

POSITION : Long at 11520

OBJECTIVE : 11650

STOP-LOSS : 11490

RES : 11670/11700/11750

SUP : 11420/11305/11270

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