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AceTraderFx Nov 4 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11370
04 Nov 2013 05:44GMT
Usd's rebound fm Oct's low at 10935 suggests cor
rection fm Sep's 11660 high has formed a temporary
low there n retrace. to 11455, then 11520 is seen.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated n only
below 11270 aborts n risks weakness to 11000.
STRATEGY : Long at 11330
POSITION : Long at 11330
OBJECTIVE : 11450
STOP-LOSS : 11330
RES : 11400/11455/11520
SUP : 11305/11270/11000
AceTraderFx Nov 4: Weekly Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
03 Nov 2013 23:53GMT
Trend Daily Chart: Sideways
Daily Indicators: Turning down
21 HR EMA :1.5955
55 HR EMA :1.5998
Trend Hourly Chart : Near term down
Hourly Indicators : Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI : 27
14 HR DMI : -ve
Daily Analysis :Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6040 - Last Fri's European high
1.5999 - Last Wed's low
1.5953 - Last Fri's European low
Support
1.5894 - Oct's low (16th)
1.5818 - 38.2% r of 1.5102-1.6260
1.5753 - -Jun 17 high
. GBP/USD - 1.5923 ... Although cable also fell in tandem with eur/usd last week, active selling of eur/gbp cross limited sterling's downside some what, price weakened to a fresh 2-week low of 1.5908 on Fri.
. Looking at the daily chart, despite the recent volatile broad sideways
move inside recent 1.5894-1.6260 range, anticipated selloff in the euro suggests cable wud also come under selling pressure in this week, a breach of 1.5894 wud confirm MT rise fm 2013 3-year trough at 1.4814 (Jul) has indeed formed a top earlier at 1.6260 on the 1st day of Oct n correction of the intermediate rally fm 1.5102 wud knock the pound to 1.5818, being a 'minimum' 38.2% r, a daily close below there wud send price lower twd 1.5681 (50% r) later this month. In view of abv bearish scenario, selling cable on recovery is favoured n only a daily close abv 1.6079 wud prolong consolidation, risk 1.6119/24.
. Today, expect initial sideways trading in Asia as Tokyo market is closed
n reckon 1.5953 wud cap intra-day recovery n yield test of said daily sup at
1.5894, break wud extend recent erratic fall to 1.5840/50.
AceTraderFx Nov 5 : Euro rebound fom 6-week low on short-covering
Market Review- 04/11/2013 21:33GMT
Euro rebound fom 6-week low on short-covering
The single currency finally cut 6 consecutve days of losses and rebounded from a fresh 6-week low on Monday. Earier in Asia, although euro penetrated Friday's low at 1.3478 after meeting renewed selling at 1.3502 and fell to 1.3442 in thin Asia session lunch session after tripping stops below 1.3462, profit-taking together with active short-covering lifted the pair. Euro ratcheted higher in European session on stronger-than-expected Germany's manufacturing PMI and later climbed to a session high at 1.3525 in New York afternoon.
The British pound strengthened on Monday after the release of strong U.K. construction PMI data which showed that activity in the U.K. construction sector expanded at the fastest rate in six years in October continued to support demand for sterling. U.K. construction PMI in October came in at 59.4, stronger than the forecast of 58.7.
Although cable dropped in tandem with euro to a session low at 1.5904 in Asian trading, buying interest there lifted price and cable continued to climb higher in European session after the release of strong U.K. construction PMI. The pound then rose to intra-day high of 1.5979 in New York morning before stabilizing.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback firmed to intra-day high at 98.85 in quiet Asian trading as financial markets in Japan were closed for a national holiday, however, failure to penetrate last Friday's top at 98.86 prompted long liquidation. Dollar edged lower in European session and later weakened to a session low at 98.57 in New York afternoon.
In other news, the president of St. Louis Federal Reverse James Bullard said 'bond buying is data dependent, policy-makers will look at the evidence at every meeting; labor markets have made substantial progress, but inflation is low; not seen much evidence on inflation heading higher; "what is the hurry" to decide on tapering, would like to see inflation heading to 2%; 'asset bubbles are a serious concern, but not seeing anything of magnitude of housing bubble; Fed does not want to be in position of supporting fiscal recklessness; recent rise in bond yields has eased his concern that bond market showing bubble characteristics.'
Governor of Federal Reserve Jerome H. Powell said 'U.S. monetary policy is likely to remain highly accommodative for some time; timing of when Fed will trim pace of bond buying is necessarily uncertain, depends on evolution of economy; Fed policy makers committed to communicating as clearly as possible about policy aims, intentions.’
On the data front, euro zone Sentix investor confidence in November came in at 9.3, better than the expectation of 6.2. U.S. factory orders in September came in at 1.7%, same as expectation.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
China HSBC Markit service PMI, Australia RBA rate decision, Swiss CPI, U.K. BRC retail sales, service PMI, EU PPI, U.S. Redbook retail sales,
Construction spending, New home sales,
ISM non-manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Nov 5 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1062.2
05 Nov 2013 03:04GMT
Usd's rebound fm Oct's 9-mth low at 1054.3 sug-
gests upside bias remains for a minor retrace. to
1066.6 but res 1069.2 wud hold n yield retreat.
Hold long for this move n only a daily close
below 1060.7 may risk weakness to 1057/58 later.
STRATEGY : Long at 1062.5
POSITION : Long at 1062.5
OBJECTIVE : 1066.5
STOP-LOSS : 1060.00
RES : 1066.6/1069.2/1071.5
SUP : 1060.7/1054.3/1051.0
AceTraderFx Nov 5 : Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
05 Nov 2013 00:04GMT
Trend Daily Chart :Sideways
Daily Indicators :Turning up
21 HR EMA :0.9109
55 HR EMA :0.9085
Trend Hourly Chart : Sideways
Hourly Indicators : Neutral
13 HR RSI : 41
14 HR DMI :-ve
Daily Analysis :Consolidation b4 upmove resumes
Resistance
0.9225 - Sep 16 low
0.9178 - Oct 15 high
0.9152 - Y'day's Asian high
Support
0.9091 - Y'day's NY low
0.9071 - Last Fri's European low
0.9024 -Last Thur's high
USD/CHF - 0.9100... The pair also extended recent upmove fm Oct's 23-
month low at 0.8891 to a fresh 2-week high at 0.9152 y'day due to dlr's broad-based strength, however, active profit-taking capped dlr's upside n the pair ratcheted lower to a session low at 0.9091 near NY close.
. Despite y'day's brief rise to 0.9152, subsequent retreat suggests 1-2
days of consolidation wud be seen b4 upmove fm Oct's near 2-year trough of 0.88 91 to retrace MT downtrend to resume, abv 0.9152 wud bring further gain to 0.91 73/78, being 50% r of intermediate fall fm 0.9455-0.8891 n Oct 15 high respectively. Looking at the bigger picture, only a daily close abv 0.9178 res wud encourage for further gain to 0.9240 (61.8% r of 0.9455-0.8891) n possibly twd 0.9253, this is 38.2% r of intermediate decline fm 0.9839 (2013 top in May) n then twd 0.9365 (50% r).
. Today, buying on intra-day retreat in anticipation of subsequent upmove is favoured n only a breach of 0.9024 (Oct 30 high, now sup) wud signal temp. top is made n may risk stronger correction to 0.8991/93 n possibly 0.8952 sup.
AceTraderFx Nov 6 : Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting
Market Review - 05/11/2013 22:13GMT
Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting
The single currency met selling interest at 1.3522 in Asian trading and then dropped to 1.3478 in European morning before rebounding to 1.3511 partly due to EU commission's forecast on euro zone GDP growth. However, euro weakened again on growing speculation that the European Central Bank may signal easier monetary policy or even cut interest rates at its policy meeting on Thursday.
Euro fell to an intra-day low of 1.3449 in New York morning on strong U.S. October's ISM non-manufacturing index, which came in at 55.4, stronger than the economists' forecast of 54.0.
EU commission forecasted euro zone GDP growth at -0.4% for 2013, +1.1% for 2014, +1.7% in 2015 and EU GDP growth at 0.0% for 2013, +1.4% for 2014, +1.9% in 2015.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback met selling interest at 98.68 and fell to 98.24 in Asian trading on Tuesday. Dollar fell to an intra-day low at 98.16 in European morning and then rebounded to 98.64 in New York session.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asian trading and retreated to 1.5949 in European morning, however, buying interest quickly emerged in Europe after the release of stronger-than-expected U.K. service PMI, which came in at 62.5 for October, better the forecast of 59.8. It was also the sharpest rise in activity since May 1997. Later, cable jumped to a session high at 1.6063 in New York morning b4 retreating.
In other news, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren says 'expects Fed funds rate quite low for quite some time; expects better economic data, U.S. GDP growth closer to 3% early next year.'
ECB's President Mario Draghi says 'we are gradually recovering from the financial crisis; overall economic situation has slightly improved.'
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand unemployment rate, employment change, Australia trade balance, U.K. BRC shop price index, industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy service PMI, France service PMI, Germany service PMI, factory orders, EU service PMI, retail sales, Canada building permits, Ivey PMI and U.S. leading indicators.
AceTraderFx Nov 6 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11410
06 Nov 2013 01:21GMT
Usd's rebound fm Oct's low at 10935 suggests cor
rection fm Sep's 11660 high has formed a temporary
low there n retrace. to 11455, then 11520 is seen.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated n only
below 11305 aborts n risks weakness to 11270.
STRATEGY : Long at 11330
POSITION : Long at 11330
OBJECTIVE : 11430
STOP-LOSS : 11360
RES : 11455/11520/11660
SUP : 11305/11270/11000
AcetraderFx Nov 7 : Euro rebounds on short-covering ahead of ECB rate decision
Market Review - 06/11/2013 21:44GMT
Euro rebounds on short-covering ahead of ECB rate decision
The single currency rebounded on Wednesday due to active short-covering ahead of ECB's rate decision on Thursday as the release of stronger-than-expected German industry orders affirmed markets' expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates this week despite a steep fall in inflation.
Euro found renewed buying interest at 1.3469 in Asian session on Wednesday and price jumped to 1.3522 due to active short-covering together with cross buying versus the Japanese yen (eur/jpy rallied fm 132.55 to 133.72). Price rose further to 1.3533 in European morning partly due to the release of stronger-than-expected service PMI data and Germany factory orders. The single currency further strengthened to a session high at 1.3548 in New York morning before stabilizing.
Germany factory orders in September came in at 3.3% m/m n 7.9% y/y, much stronger than the forecast of 0.5% n 5.6% respectively. Germany Services PMI in October came in at 52.9, higher than the forecast of 52.3. Euro zone Services PMI in October came in at 51.6, better than the expectation of 50.9.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback rose to a session high at 98.76 in Asian trading due to the rise in Japan's stock markets (Nikkei-225 index closed up by 112 points at 14337). Dollar later retreated to 98.47 in European morning before rebounding to 98.74 in New York morning.
The British pound rose to 1.6097 in Asian trading before retreating to 1.6063. Cable later jumped to an intra-day high at 1.6118 after the release of stronger-than-expected U.K. industrial and manufacturing production before stabilizing in New York session.
U.K. industrial production in September came in at 0.9% m/m n 2.2% y/y, stronger than the forecast of 0.5% n 1.8% respectively; manufacturing production in September came in at 1.2% m/m n 0.8% y/y, better than the expectation of 1.1% n 0.7% respectively.
On the data front, U.S. leading index in September came in at 0.7%, better than the forecast of 0.6%. Euro zone retail sales in September came in at -0.6% m/m and 0.3% y/y, worse than the forecast of -0.4% and 0.7%, previous reading was revised to 0.5% and -0.2% respectively. Canada Ivey PMI in October came in at 62.8, much stronger than the expectation of 52.0.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia employment change, unemployment change, Japan leading indicators, U.K. Lloyds employment confidence, BOE rate decision, BOE asset purchase target, Germany industrial production, ECB rate decision, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, PCE core and jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Nov 8 : Euro tumbles after ECB 0.25% rate cut
Market Review - 07/11/2013 22:17GMT
Euro tumbles after ECB 0.25% rate cut
The single currency tumbled on Thursday after ECB unexpectedly cut interest rate to 0.25% together with the release of U.S. GDP data which came in stronger than economist's forecast. ECB cut refinancing rate to 0.25% and cut interest rate on marginal lending to 0.75%. U.S. GDP in Q3 came in at 2.8%, stronger than the forecast of 2.0%.
The single currency traded narrowly in Asian session and European morning. Euro tumbled to 1.3354 after ECB announced the interest rate decision and then fell to an intra-day low of 1.3295 in New York morning due to the release of strong U.S. GDP data. The pair later rebounded to 1.3450 in late New York as Dow Jones index turned negative and closed down by 153 points at 15594.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback found support at 98.56 in Asian trading and then climbed higher to 98.75 in European morning. Dollar further jumped to a session high at 99.41 after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP data in New York morning. However, profit-taking offers together with active cross buying in jpy quickly emerged there and U.S. dollar tanked to intra-day low at 97.60 in late NY due to the sharp selloff in U.S. equities.
The British pound fell to 1.6065 in Asian session before rebounding to 1.6092 ahead of European open. The pair dropped to 1.6054 ahead of New York open after Bank of England rate decision and then further tanked to a session low at 1.6010 in tandem with euro's selloff and strong U.S. GDP data in New York morning. However, renewed buying interest there lifted price higher to 1.6114 in late New York b4 stabilizing.
Bank of England said 'leaves QE asset purchase total unchanged at 375 billion sterling; holds bank rate at 0.5%.'
ECB's President Mario Draghi said 'took decision on liquidity; further diminishing of inflation pressure; inflation expectation continue to be firmly anchored; followed by gradual upward movement; ECB monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary ; governing council expects key ECB interest to remain at current or lower levels for extended period of time; this expectation is based on overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into medium term; extend full allotment in liquidity operations until at least July 2015; real income have benefited from generally lower inflation; growth risks are on downside; global money, financial market conditions downside risk; October inflation decline was stronger than expected; inflation expected to remain at low levels in coming months; inflation risks are broadly balanced; upside inflation risks in particular from commodity prices; weak loan dynamics reflect primarily business cycle; technically ready for negative deposit rate; possibility for negative deposit rate is part of our artillery; we have instruments, LTRO and negative deposit rate are some of them.'
Data to be released on Friday:
RBA monetary policy statement, Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, U.K. trade balance, Germany current account, export, import, trade balance, France current account, trade balance, industrial production, manufacturing production, Canada housing starts, net change in unemployment, unemployment rate, U.S. personal income, personal consumption, PCE index, PCE core, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Nov 8: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1064.0
08 Nov 2013 06:17GMT
Usd's intra-dat breach of Wed's 1063.7 top sug-
gests erratic rise fm 1054.3 has resumed n retrace.
of MT decline to 1066.6 wud be seen b4 retreat.
Stand aside n look to buy on dips as only below
1058.7 signals temp. top made, 1054.3 again.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1065.0/1066.6/1069.2
SUP : 1058.7/1054.3/1051.0