|
不
经验
|
0
产品
|
0
演示版
|
|
0
工作
|
2
信号
|
1
订阅者
|
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold price is reversing a part of Friday’s upswing, having faced rejection once again above the $2,330 level early Monday. Gold price fails to benefit from a pause in the US Dollar (USD) upsurge, as the US Treasury bond yields recover after last week’s downward spiral.
On Friday, Gold price staged a rebound, courtesy of the continued decline in the US yields and mounting political uncertainty in the Euro area, as France is heading closer to the snap elections due on June 30. Gold traders overlooked the increase in the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations data for June amid mixed messages from the Fed policymakers.
Hawkish comments from Fed policymaker Kashkari combined with unimpressive Chinese economic data contributes to the renewed downside in Gold price. 🔻 China’s House Price Index declined 3.9% in May while Industrial Production fell more than expected. China’s Retail Sales rose 3.7% YoY in the same period, compared to a 3.0% increase expected.
Later in the day, traders will keep an eye on the Euro area political developments, which could have a significant impact on risk sentiment and the US Dollar price action, eventually influencing the USD-denominated Gold price moves. Speeches by Fed officials will be also closely scrutinized to gauge the timing of te interest rate cut.
🟢 Markets are currently pricing in about 62% odds of a rate cut by the Fed in September while that for December is seen at 27%.
🟢 Key Economic Events today:
12:00 EUR ECB's Lane Speaks
13:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
13:00 EUR Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q1) 3.10%
14:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
15:30 EUR ECB's De Guindos Speaks
16:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun) -12.50 -15.60
20:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
21:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
🍎 Crucial Price Zones: XAUUSD:
🔻BZ $2300/2288
🔺SZ $2342/2350
🟢 Refer Algo: PRSRL set D1
On Friday, Gold price staged a rebound, courtesy of the continued decline in the US yields and mounting political uncertainty in the Euro area, as France is heading closer to the snap elections due on June 30. Gold traders overlooked the increase in the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations data for June amid mixed messages from the Fed policymakers.
Hawkish comments from Fed policymaker Kashkari combined with unimpressive Chinese economic data contributes to the renewed downside in Gold price. 🔻 China’s House Price Index declined 3.9% in May while Industrial Production fell more than expected. China’s Retail Sales rose 3.7% YoY in the same period, compared to a 3.0% increase expected.
Later in the day, traders will keep an eye on the Euro area political developments, which could have a significant impact on risk sentiment and the US Dollar price action, eventually influencing the USD-denominated Gold price moves. Speeches by Fed officials will be also closely scrutinized to gauge the timing of te interest rate cut.
🟢 Markets are currently pricing in about 62% odds of a rate cut by the Fed in September while that for December is seen at 27%.
🟢 Key Economic Events today:
12:00 EUR ECB's Lane Speaks
13:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
13:00 EUR Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q1) 3.10%
14:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
15:30 EUR ECB's De Guindos Speaks
16:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun) -12.50 -15.60
20:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
21:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
🍎 Crucial Price Zones: XAUUSD:
🔻BZ $2300/2288
🔺SZ $2342/2350
🟢 Refer Algo: PRSRL set D1
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #Gold #PiyushRatnu
The initial market reaction to the softer US consumer inflation data on Wednesday faded rather quickly after the Federal Reserve said that it sees only one rate cut this year, which, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding Gold price.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) gained positive traction for the third successive day on Wednesday and touched a fresh weekly peak, around the $2,341-2,342 area in reaction to softer US consumer inflation figures. The momentum, however, ran out of steam in the vicinity of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish surprise. In fact, policymakers now see just one rate cut in 2024 as compared to three projected in March, which, in turn, is seen exerting some follow-through pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal during the Asian session on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the shift in the Fed's projections, which led to a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, assists the US Dollar (USD) to build on the overnight bounce from a multi-day low and further undermines the Gold price. That said, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and political uncertainty in Europe should lend some support to the XAU/USD. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside. Traders now look to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data.
The initial market reaction to the softer US consumer inflation data on Wednesday faded rather quickly after the Federal Reserve said that it sees only one rate cut this year, which, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding Gold price.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) gained positive traction for the third successive day on Wednesday and touched a fresh weekly peak, around the $2,341-2,342 area in reaction to softer US consumer inflation figures. The momentum, however, ran out of steam in the vicinity of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish surprise. In fact, policymakers now see just one rate cut in 2024 as compared to three projected in March, which, in turn, is seen exerting some follow-through pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal during the Asian session on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the shift in the Fed's projections, which led to a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, assists the US Dollar (USD) to build on the overnight bounce from a multi-day low and further undermines the Gold price. That said, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and political uncertainty in Europe should lend some support to the XAU/USD. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside. Traders now look to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #FOMC #Latest
USDJPY marching towards 10-11 June highs
XAUUSD lows on 10-11 June: $2288 zone
USDJPY marching towards 10-11 June highs
XAUUSD lows on 10-11 June: $2288 zone
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #Trading
Key Economic Data today:
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,800K 1,792K
16:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.5%
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 225K 229K
16:30 USD PPI (MoM) (May) 0.1% 0.5%
Key Economic Data today:
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,800K 1,792K
16:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.5%
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 225K 229K
16:30 USD PPI (MoM) (May) 0.1% 0.5%
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Federal Reserve officials’ collective forecast for interest rates now implies only one quarter-point cut by the end of 2024.
That is a significant shift. It is two fewer reductions than the median estimate in the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections showed in March. Before the SEP was made public on Wednesday, interest-rate futures markets were pricing in the greatest probability of two cuts this year from the current target range of 5.25% to 5.5% for the federal-funds rate.
The SEP, known informally as the “dot plot,” is a collection of forecasts for the economy, inflation, the labor market, and interest rates offered by the seven Fed governors and 12 regional Fed presidents. It isn’t a formal plan, by any means, but rather an anonymous snapshot of top officials’ current thinking.
In aggregate, officials significantly dialed back their forecasts for rate cuts this year. The March SEP had 10 of 19 dots implying at least three cuts this year. In Wednesday’s dot plot, eight officials penciled in two cuts, seven had one cut, and four predicted no change in the fed-funds rate this year.
The median estimates for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 also moved higher by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4% to 4.25%, implying a cumulative percentage-point of cuts next year. For the end of 2026, the median dot on Wednesday showed an unchanged target range of 3% to 3.25%.
Officials’ median longer-run estimate of the fed-funds rate moved up by a quarter of a point for the second straight month, to 2.75% to 3.0%. That figure is seen as officials’ collective estimate of the so-called neutral rate of interest—the level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.
That is a significant shift. It is two fewer reductions than the median estimate in the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections showed in March. Before the SEP was made public on Wednesday, interest-rate futures markets were pricing in the greatest probability of two cuts this year from the current target range of 5.25% to 5.5% for the federal-funds rate.
The SEP, known informally as the “dot plot,” is a collection of forecasts for the economy, inflation, the labor market, and interest rates offered by the seven Fed governors and 12 regional Fed presidents. It isn’t a formal plan, by any means, but rather an anonymous snapshot of top officials’ current thinking.
In aggregate, officials significantly dialed back their forecasts for rate cuts this year. The March SEP had 10 of 19 dots implying at least three cuts this year. In Wednesday’s dot plot, eight officials penciled in two cuts, seven had one cut, and four predicted no change in the fed-funds rate this year.
The median estimates for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 also moved higher by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4% to 4.25%, implying a cumulative percentage-point of cuts next year. For the end of 2026, the median dot on Wednesday showed an unchanged target range of 3% to 3.25%.
Officials’ median longer-run estimate of the fed-funds rate moved up by a quarter of a point for the second straight month, to 2.75% to 3.0%. That figure is seen as officials’ collective estimate of the so-called neutral rate of interest—the level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #FOMC #Forex #Powell
Power of disinflation has been unwinding pandemic shocks - POWELL
FAQ: What is disinflation?
Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation. The term is used to describe occasions when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term. Unlike inflation and deflation, which refer to the direction of prices, disinflation refers to the rate of change in the rate of inflation.
Power of disinflation has been unwinding pandemic shocks - POWELL
FAQ: What is disinflation?
Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation. The term is used to describe occasions when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term. Unlike inflation and deflation, which refer to the direction of prices, disinflation refers to the rate of change in the rate of inflation.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
12 June 2024
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
12 June 2024
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘 USDPY approaching H1A100
🟢 XAUUSD H1V100 @ 2385
🔺Crucial + stops: $2369/2385/2407/2424
🔻Crucial - stops: $2313/2288/2266/2244
Key Economic Data Ahead:
22:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (May) -279.6B 210.0B
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (Q2) 3.9%
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr (Q2) 3.1%
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr 2.9%
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - Current (Q2) 4.6%
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - Longer (Q2) 2.6%
22:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
22:00 USD FOMC Statement
22:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.50% 5.50%
22:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
🟢 XAUUSD H1V100 @ 2385
🔺Crucial + stops: $2369/2385/2407/2424
🔻Crucial - stops: $2313/2288/2266/2244
Key Economic Data Ahead:
22:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (May) -279.6B 210.0B
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (Q2) 3.9%
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr (Q2) 3.1%
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr 2.9%
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - Current (Q2) 4.6%
22:00 USD Interest Rate Projection - Longer (Q2) 2.6%
22:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
22:00 USD FOMC Statement
22:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.50% 5.50%
22:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD under PPZ R2/S2 crucial entry zones.
#PiyushRatnu #PRDXb #Forex #Gold #Fx
#PiyushRatnu #PRDXb #Forex #Gold #Fx
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
H1V236 achieved $2309 CMP
+ Target $2323
- Target $2288
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #PRDXB #Forex
+ Target $2323
- Target $2288
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #PRDXB #Forex
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Critical Week Ahead
This week promises another critical data event with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. This data, followed immediately by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, will significantly impact market volatility.
The contrasting data releases, with weak ADP data followed by strong Nonfarm Payrolls, have been mixed. While expectations of robust US employment solidified, the rising unemployment rate presents another data point leaving investors uncertain.
This week's CPI release could provide some clarity. A higher-than-expected CPI could prompt a cautious statement from the Fed, potentially bolstering the dollar's appeal as a safe haven asset. Conversely, lower-than-expected CPI would ease pressure on the Fed, potentially paving the way for a future rate cut.
The Fed initially anticipated three rate cuts in 2024, but current forecasts suggest only one. The exact timing of this cut remains speculative and will significantly impact markets.
The week began with subdued risk appetite due to the lingering effects of the employment data. The dollar maintained its positive momentum against other major currencies, pushing towards the 105 level on the DXY.
This week's economic data, particularly the CPI and Fed decision, will be crucial in determining the dollar's near-term trajectory and providing further clues about the Fed's future monetary policy actions.
A strong US NFP headline print and the wage inflation data drove the US Treasury bond yields sharply higher across the curve, with the 2-year Treasury yields, which is sensitive to Fed policy expectations, shooting up by the most in two months. The US Dollar followed the upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields on a significant decline in the bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September, weighing heavily on the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
Markets dialed down bets of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in September to about 43% from about 55% before the report, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, and now see roughly an even chance of two rate cuts by the end of 2024, versus about a 68% chance seen before the NFP release, per Reuters.
The US Dollar upside gains renewed traction early Monday, as markets ramp up their bets on delayed Fed rate cuts heading into the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Fed policy announcements due on Wednesday.
Further, traders also digest mounting political tension in the Euro area, especially after French President Emmanuel Macron announced snap elections on Sunday, dissolving parliament after exit polls showed his alliance suffered a heavy defeat in European elections to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party.
The French political uncertainty could continue to exert downside pressure on the EUR/USD pair, adding extra legs to the US Dollar at the expense of the Gold price.
Meanwhile, in the absence of top-tier US economic data on Monday, all eyes will remain on risk sentiment and the US Dollar dynamics for fresh trading impetus on Gold price.
This week promises another critical data event with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. This data, followed immediately by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, will significantly impact market volatility.
The contrasting data releases, with weak ADP data followed by strong Nonfarm Payrolls, have been mixed. While expectations of robust US employment solidified, the rising unemployment rate presents another data point leaving investors uncertain.
This week's CPI release could provide some clarity. A higher-than-expected CPI could prompt a cautious statement from the Fed, potentially bolstering the dollar's appeal as a safe haven asset. Conversely, lower-than-expected CPI would ease pressure on the Fed, potentially paving the way for a future rate cut.
The Fed initially anticipated three rate cuts in 2024, but current forecasts suggest only one. The exact timing of this cut remains speculative and will significantly impact markets.
The week began with subdued risk appetite due to the lingering effects of the employment data. The dollar maintained its positive momentum against other major currencies, pushing towards the 105 level on the DXY.
This week's economic data, particularly the CPI and Fed decision, will be crucial in determining the dollar's near-term trajectory and providing further clues about the Fed's future monetary policy actions.
A strong US NFP headline print and the wage inflation data drove the US Treasury bond yields sharply higher across the curve, with the 2-year Treasury yields, which is sensitive to Fed policy expectations, shooting up by the most in two months. The US Dollar followed the upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields on a significant decline in the bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September, weighing heavily on the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
Markets dialed down bets of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in September to about 43% from about 55% before the report, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, and now see roughly an even chance of two rate cuts by the end of 2024, versus about a 68% chance seen before the NFP release, per Reuters.
The US Dollar upside gains renewed traction early Monday, as markets ramp up their bets on delayed Fed rate cuts heading into the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Fed policy announcements due on Wednesday.
Further, traders also digest mounting political tension in the Euro area, especially after French President Emmanuel Macron announced snap elections on Sunday, dissolving parliament after exit polls showed his alliance suffered a heavy defeat in European elections to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party.
The French political uncertainty could continue to exert downside pressure on the EUR/USD pair, adding extra legs to the US Dollar at the expense of the Gold price.
Meanwhile, in the absence of top-tier US economic data on Monday, all eyes will remain on risk sentiment and the US Dollar dynamics for fresh trading impetus on Gold price.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
After NFP: $2388-2288 achieved, After FOMC: $2244/2222 or $2400/2424 next? Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
A strong US NFP headline print and the wage inflation data drove the US Treasury bond yields sharply higher across the curve, with the 2-year Treasury yields, which is sensitive to Fed policy expectations, shooting up by the most in two months. The US Dollar followed the upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields on a significant decline in the bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September, weighing heavily on the non-interest-bearing 🔻 Gold price.
Markets dialed down bets of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in September to about 43% from about 55% before the report, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, and now see roughly an even chance of two rate cuts by the end of 2024, versus about a 68% chance seen before the NFP release, per Reuters.
Furthermore, reports that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) paused gold purchases to its reserves in May, ending a massive buying spree that ran for 18 months, further seem to undermine the Gold price. That said, a cautious market mood lends some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and helps limit deeper losses. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of this week's key US data and central bank event risk – the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and the outcome of the two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. This, in turn, warrants caution before positioning for further losses.
The US Dollar 🔺 upside gains renewed traction early Monday, as markets ramp up their bets on delayed Fed rate cuts heading into the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Fed policy announcements due on Wednesday.⚠️
XAUUSD/Spot GOLD: Crucial Price zones today:
XAUUSD under PPZ
🔻 S2 $2244 zone
🔺 R2 $2342 zone
AVOID Big Lots.
Wednesday 12.06.2024 will mark another $100 movement in the following days.
I had alerted $100 price action is expected last week, verify here: https://t.me/c/1654158888/9313: where in $2387-$2287 price crash was observed in a single day before and after NFP data was published.
As usual, justifying a price crash after the crash or rise is too convenient for media houses, however what needs to be noticed here is that we alert and project price movements in advance, where in traders get enough time to encash it / save their account from higher drawdowns.
🟢 Hence trade wisely, at price zones projected by us and avoid taking high risks in between the price zones mentioned by me, to keep low drawdowns and higher ROI like this:
https://bit.ly/PRtrackRecord
A strong US NFP headline print and the wage inflation data drove the US Treasury bond yields sharply higher across the curve, with the 2-year Treasury yields, which is sensitive to Fed policy expectations, shooting up by the most in two months. The US Dollar followed the upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields on a significant decline in the bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September, weighing heavily on the non-interest-bearing 🔻 Gold price.
Markets dialed down bets of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in September to about 43% from about 55% before the report, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, and now see roughly an even chance of two rate cuts by the end of 2024, versus about a 68% chance seen before the NFP release, per Reuters.
Furthermore, reports that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) paused gold purchases to its reserves in May, ending a massive buying spree that ran for 18 months, further seem to undermine the Gold price. That said, a cautious market mood lends some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and helps limit deeper losses. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of this week's key US data and central bank event risk – the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and the outcome of the two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. This, in turn, warrants caution before positioning for further losses.
The US Dollar 🔺 upside gains renewed traction early Monday, as markets ramp up their bets on delayed Fed rate cuts heading into the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Fed policy announcements due on Wednesday.⚠️
XAUUSD/Spot GOLD: Crucial Price zones today:
XAUUSD under PPZ
🔻 S2 $2244 zone
🔺 R2 $2342 zone
AVOID Big Lots.
Wednesday 12.06.2024 will mark another $100 movement in the following days.
I had alerted $100 price action is expected last week, verify here: https://t.me/c/1654158888/9313: where in $2387-$2287 price crash was observed in a single day before and after NFP data was published.
As usual, justifying a price crash after the crash or rise is too convenient for media houses, however what needs to be noticed here is that we alert and project price movements in advance, where in traders get enough time to encash it / save their account from higher drawdowns.
🟢 Hence trade wisely, at price zones projected by us and avoid taking high risks in between the price zones mentioned by me, to keep low drawdowns and higher ROI like this:
https://bit.ly/PRtrackRecord
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Projected in advance, achieved $2388-2288 POST NFP | #XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #PRDXB #Forex #Gold
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD crashed from $2385-2305: we alerted the crash zone in advance!
Verify at:
https://t.me/c/1654158888/9436
Accuracy proved once again!
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu
Verify at:
https://t.me/c/1654158888/9436
Accuracy proved once again!
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold return slows in May
Gold posted a third consecutive monthly gain in May, rising by 2% m/m to US$2,348/oz. Despite the more moderate gain compared to March and April, gold hit a new all-time high of US$2,427/oz mid-month before pulling back – likely reflecting some profit taking. But market activity remained supportive during the month, with net long managed money positions on COMEX hitting a four-year high and gold ETFs seeing net inflows (US$529mn) for the first time since May 2023.Looking at our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), there was no single variable that stood out as a key driver in May. Momentum and a weaker US dollar were positive drivers but their impact was marginal. And while the unexplained component of the model shrank considerably in May, it was still the largest factor by far. As we have noted previously, we believe some of this can be attributed to strong over-the-counter buying, including central bank purchases which have been a notable contributor to recent gold returns.
In summary
It appears the US dollar is in a protracted range-trading environment but having performed well recently it could be due for a further pullback following its first down month of 2024 in May. And as highlighted in our analysis, any prolonged weakness in the dollar should, at a minimum, ease headwinds and provide potential upside for gold over the ensuing months.
SOURCE:https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-may-2024#XAUUSD
CMP $2323 #Gold #NFP
Gold posted a third consecutive monthly gain in May, rising by 2% m/m to US$2,348/oz. Despite the more moderate gain compared to March and April, gold hit a new all-time high of US$2,427/oz mid-month before pulling back – likely reflecting some profit taking. But market activity remained supportive during the month, with net long managed money positions on COMEX hitting a four-year high and gold ETFs seeing net inflows (US$529mn) for the first time since May 2023.Looking at our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), there was no single variable that stood out as a key driver in May. Momentum and a weaker US dollar were positive drivers but their impact was marginal. And while the unexplained component of the model shrank considerably in May, it was still the largest factor by far. As we have noted previously, we believe some of this can be attributed to strong over-the-counter buying, including central bank purchases which have been a notable contributor to recent gold returns.
In summary
It appears the US dollar is in a protracted range-trading environment but having performed well recently it could be due for a further pullback following its first down month of 2024 in May. And as highlighted in our analysis, any prolonged weakness in the dollar should, at a minimum, ease headwinds and provide potential upside for gold over the ensuing months.
SOURCE:https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-may-2024#XAUUSD
CMP $2323 #Gold #NFP
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘 NFP Day: XAUUSD Price Projection:
🔻 $2313/2300/2288 on radar
🔺$23692385/2407 on radar
avoid entries till 45 minutes after NFP
18.18 and 18.30/19.19 crucial RT/PA.
Avoid BIG Lots: Monday is a Chinese and Australia holiday, hence early morning one directional price movement might be observed. Heavy DD might result in substantial losses.
I expect a price movement of $25/40 from CMP $2335, RT/continuation might be observed 18.18 onwards.
🔻scenario
Suggested PG $ 10/10/5/5/5
SMGR pattern 11 22 33 55
🔺scenario
Suggested PG $25/15/10/5/5
SMGR Pattern 111 222 333 555 888
🟢Exit in both scenarios: NAP
ALL THE BEST!
🔻 $2313/2300/2288 on radar
🔺$23692385/2407 on radar
avoid entries till 45 minutes after NFP
18.18 and 18.30/19.19 crucial RT/PA.
Avoid BIG Lots: Monday is a Chinese and Australia holiday, hence early morning one directional price movement might be observed. Heavy DD might result in substantial losses.
I expect a price movement of $25/40 from CMP $2335, RT/continuation might be observed 18.18 onwards.
🔻scenario
Suggested PG $ 10/10/5/5/5
SMGR pattern 11 22 33 55
🔺scenario
Suggested PG $25/15/10/5/5
SMGR Pattern 111 222 333 555 888
🟢Exit in both scenarios: NAP
ALL THE BEST!
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Key Economic Data Today:
16:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (May) 3.9% 3.9%
16:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.2%
16:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (May) 182K 175K
16:30 USD Participation Rate (May) 62.7%
16:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (May) 170K 167K
16:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (May) 7.4%
16:30 USD Unemployment Rate (May) 3.9% 3.9%
18:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
#XAUUSD
16:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (May) 3.9% 3.9%
16:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.2%
16:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (May) 182K 175K
16:30 USD Participation Rate (May) 62.7%
16:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (May) 170K 167K
16:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (May) 7.4%
16:30 USD Unemployment Rate (May) 3.9% 3.9%
18:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
#XAUUSD
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD CMP @ H1AS1 S2
H1A100 $2313
Crucial stops BZ $2332 $2323 $2313 $2303 $2288
Target UP zones: $2342/2369/2385/2407
#XAUUSD #Gold #PiyushRatnu #PRDXB
H1A100 $2313
Crucial stops BZ $2332 $2323 $2313 $2303 $2288
Target UP zones: $2342/2369/2385/2407
#XAUUSD #Gold #PiyushRatnu #PRDXB
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
How to trade XAUUSD accurately on NFP Day?
#XAUUSD #NFP #NonfarmPayrolls #Forex #PRDXB #PiyushRatnu #Gold
#XAUUSD #NFP #NonfarmPayrolls #Forex #PRDXB #PiyushRatnu #Gold
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold price (XAU/USD)🔺 attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day and climbs to a two-week top, around the $2,373 area during the Asian session on Thursday. Moreover, the near-term bias remains tilted in favor of bulls in the wake of bets that major central banks will lower borrowing costs to bolster economic activity. In fact, the Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday lowered its benchmark rate for the first time in four years, from a more than two-decade high and signaled concern about slowing economic growth. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to 🔺cut interest rates for the first time since March 2016 at the end of its June policy meeting later today.
Meanwhile, the markets are now pricing in a greater chance for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid signs of a slowdown in the US economy. The expectations keep the 🔻US Treasury bond yields depressed near the lowest level in over two months and fail to assist the US Dollar (USD) to build on its modest recovery gains registered over the past two days. This, along with persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Despite a combination of supporting factors, the upside for the XAU/USD seems limited as traders keenly await the release of the 🟢US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
✔️ $2369 target achieved as projected on 03.06.2024
Meanwhile, the markets are now pricing in a greater chance for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid signs of a slowdown in the US economy. The expectations keep the 🔻US Treasury bond yields depressed near the lowest level in over two months and fail to assist the US Dollar (USD) to build on its modest recovery gains registered over the past two days. This, along with persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Despite a combination of supporting factors, the upside for the XAU/USD seems limited as traders keenly await the release of the 🟢US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
✔️ $2369 target achieved as projected on 03.06.2024