利用硬币游戏的模拟研究马丁格尔的适用性 - 页 4 1234567 新评论 prikolnyjkent 2017.11.10 13:32 #31 Nikolay Demko: 对Anti-Martin的误解。反马丁是什么?是在交易失败后减少了很多,还是是否与马丁手下的交易立场相反?我们有两个二元变量,即4个选项,其中只有一个是马丁,推测其他3个是反马丁。这就是你有三个反马特。 但我有一个:与马丁相反,与交易 和MM的方向 相反(交易失败后减少很多)。亚历山大-普扎诺夫。如果你的反马汀带有防扩散、防委托和正向滑移的功能而对这一琐事的纠结是 另一个分支的话题...在这里,该同志纯粹是在一枚硬币上 测试问题 Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.10 15:32 #32 我们之前的计算可以通过简单地运行3,153,600 场比赛的模拟来检查,让我们检查一下利润是多少: profit: 157632.60234890878 { 0 = 788417 , 1 = 393279 , 2 = 196918 , 3 = 99323 , 4 = 49040 , 5 = 24706 , 6 = 12390 , 7 = 6091 , 8 = 3088 , 9 = 1511 , 10 = 796 , 11 = 375 , 12 = 183 , 13 = 100 , 14 = 50 , 15 = 30 , 16 = 17 , 17 = 7 , 18 = 3 , 19 = 1 , 25 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 , 24 = 1677721.625 , 25 = 3355443.25 } profit: 157674.9023495391 { 0 = 788781 , 1 = 393239 , 2 = 197561 , 3 = 98682 , 4 = 49031 , 5 = 24882 , 6 = 12329 , 7 = 6136 , 8 = 3051 , 9 = 1483 , 10 = 803 , 11 = 408 , 12 = 199 , 13 = 73 , 14 = 58 , 15 = 16 , 16 = 6 , 17 = 5 , 18 = 5 , 22 = 1 , 27 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 , 24 = 1677721.625 , 25 = 3355443.25 , 26 = 6710886.5 , 27 = 1.3421773 E7} profit: 157621.90234874934 { 0 = 788127 , 1 = 393663 , 2 = 197306 , 3 = 98323 , 4 = 49360 , 5 = 24656 , 6 = 12424 , 7 = 6226 , 8 = 3048 , 9 = 1559 , 10 = 777 , 11 = 375 , 12 = 169 , 13 = 105 , 14 = 51 , 15 = 20 , 16 = 17 , 17 = 6 , 18 = 4 , 19 = 2 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 , 22 = 2 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 } profit: 157641.30234903842 { 0 = 788369 , 1 = 393927 , 2 = 196455 , 3 = 98892 , 4 = 49693 , 5 = 24609 , 6 = 12133 , 7 = 6076 , 8 = 3085 , 9 = 1547 , 10 = 818 , 11 = 385 , 12 = 218 , 13 = 98 , 14 = 51 , 15 = 35 , 16 = 9 , 17 = 3 , 18 = 6 , 19 = 3 , 20 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 } profit: 157530.60234738886 { 0 = 786859 , 1 = 393728 , 2 = 197400 , 3 = 98421 , 4 = 49673 , 5 = 24537 , 6 = 12262 , 7 = 6167 , 8 = 3133 , 9 = 1542 , 10 = 799 , 11 = 392 , 12 = 173 , 13 = 110 , 14 = 65 , 15 = 24 , 16 = 18 , 17 = 2 , 19 = 1 , 22 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 } profit: 157765.30235088617 { 0 = 788939 , 1 = 395345 , 2 = 196607 , 3 = 98383 , 4 = 49182 , 5 = 24447 , 6 = 12368 , 7 = 6181 , 8 = 3157 , 9 = 1495 , 10 = 767 , 11 = 398 , 12 = 165 , 13 = 116 , 14 = 57 , 15 = 17 , 16 = 14 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 7 , 19 = 1 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 , 23 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 } profit: 157589.70234826952 { 0 = 787785 , 1 = 393602 , 2 = 197476 , 3 = 98136 , 4 = 49575 , 5 = 24489 , 6 = 12460 , 7 = 6132 , 8 = 3063 , 9 = 1597 , 10 = 791 , 11 = 403 , 12 = 187 , 13 = 98 , 14 = 51 , 15 = 24 , 16 = 14 , 17 = 6 , 18 = 3 , 19 = 4 , 20 = 1 , 22 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 } profit: 157714.10235012323 { 0 = 789208 , 1 = 393822 , 2 = 196983 , 3 = 98452 , 4 = 49316 , 5 = 24690 , 6 = 12358 , 7 = 6146 , 8 = 3136 , 9 = 1515 , 10 = 768 , 11 = 371 , 12 = 184 , 13 = 88 , 14 = 43 , 15 = 37 , 16 = 9 , 17 = 5 , 18 = 5 , 19 = 5 , 22 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 } profit: 157639.90234901756 { 0 = 788547 , 1 = 394045 , 2 = 196710 , 3 = 98051 , 4 = 49597 , 5 = 24544 , 6 = 12389 , 7 = 6263 , 8 = 3176 , 9 = 1520 , 10 = 768 , 11 = 378 , 12 = 196 , 13 = 109 , 14 = 58 , 15 = 20 , 16 = 18 , 17 = 5 , 18 = 1 , 19 = 1 , 20 = 3 , 21 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 } profit: 157710.70235007256 { 0 = 788631 , 1 = 395061 , 2 = 196330 , 3 = 98508 , 4 = 49351 , 5 = 24474 , 6 = 12363 , 7 = 6155 , 8 = 3102 , 9 = 1522 , 10 = 812 , 11 = 414 , 12 = 195 , 13 = 91 , 14 = 44 , 15 = 28 , 16 = 11 , 17 = 8 , 18 = 5 , 19 = 2 , 22 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 } 我们的计算结果证明是正确的,我们看到了相同的利润。但是等等,在现实生活中,没有什么是免费的,而且还有佣金,现在让我们不要加太多,也不要加一点 1%,看看还剩下什么: profit: 88822.49086572754 { 0 = 789162 , 1 = 394784 , 2 = 196963 , 3 = 98538 , 4 = 49499 , 5 = 24317 , 6 = 12326 , 7 = 6065 , 8 = 3140 , 9 = 1531 , 10 = 783 , 11 = 380 , 12 = 175 , 13 = 87 , 14 = 40 , 15 = 22 , 16 = 11 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 6 , 19 = 1 , 21 = 1 , 24 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 , 24 = 1677721.625 } profit: 123625.2866022763 { 0 = 786908 , 1 = 394133 , 2 = 197405 , 3 = 98932 , 4 = 49458 , 5 = 24430 , 6 = 12308 , 7 = 6175 , 8 = 3105 , 9 = 1510 , 10 = 786 , 11 = 371 , 12 = 159 , 13 = 95 , 14 = 51 , 15 = 21 , 16 = 10 , 17 = 6 , 18 = 2 , 19 = 5 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 } profit: 121507.11862347 { 0 = 790402 , 1 = 393787 , 2 = 196971 , 3 = 99023 , 4 = 49062 , 5 = 24533 , 6 = 12165 , 7 = 6157 , 8 = 3095 , 9 = 1537 , 10 = 783 , 11 = 367 , 12 = 196 , 13 = 100 , 14 = 52 , 15 = 21 , 16 = 13 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 2 , 19 = 1 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 } profit: 122120.13661360118 { 0 = 787529 , 1 = 393583 , 2 = 197336 , 3 = 98729 , 4 = 49332 , 5 = 24912 , 6 = 12176 , 7 = 6190 , 8 = 3086 , 9 = 1516 , 10 = 754 , 11 = 398 , 12 = 205 , 13 = 79 , 14 = 36 , 15 = 15 , 16 = 13 , 17 = 7 , 18 = 7 , 19 = 2 , 20 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 } profit: 122313.38861370487 { 0 = 788149 , 1 = 394042 , 2 = 197090 , 3 = 98480 , 4 = 49415 , 5 = 24699 , 6 = 12456 , 7 = 6148 , 8 = 3084 , 9 = 1494 , 10 = 757 , 11 = 362 , 12 = 204 , 13 = 87 , 14 = 41 , 15 = 21 , 16 = 10 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 2 , 19 = 1 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 } profit: 114498.12267213926 { 0 = 788244 , 1 = 394497 , 2 = 197078 , 3 = 98618 , 4 = 48759 , 5 = 24987 , 6 = 12212 , 7 = 6249 , 8 = 2959 , 9 = 1588 , 10 = 780 , 11 = 407 , 12 = 197 , 13 = 103 , 14 = 38 , 15 = 23 , 16 = 14 , 17 = 6 , 18 = 4 , 19 = 2 , 20 = 3 , 21 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 } profit: 120198.54263129225 { 0 = 788848 , 1 = 394688 , 2 = 196769 , 3 = 98486 , 4 = 49361 , 5 = 24837 , 6 = 12348 , 7 = 6030 , 8 = 3042 , 9 = 1507 , 10 = 728 , 11 = 427 , 12 = 167 , 13 = 102 , 14 = 35 , 15 = 28 , 16 = 10 , 17 = 9 , 18 = 5 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 } profit: 124012.17660451238 { 0 = 790067 , 1 = 393780 , 2 = 197418 , 3 = 98537 , 4 = 49094 , 5 = 24588 , 6 = 12353 , 7 = 6162 , 8 = 3066 , 9 = 1526 , 10 = 735 , 11 = 373 , 12 = 191 , 13 = 99 , 14 = 43 , 15 = 29 , 16 = 13 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 3 , 19 = 2 , 20 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 } profit: 122983.42060590046 { 0 = 786979 , 1 = 394002 , 2 = 197291 , 3 = 97998 , 4 = 49489 , 5 = 24802 , 6 = 12214 , 7 = 6223 , 8 = 3200 , 9 = 1551 , 10 = 774 , 11 = 388 , 12 = 213 , 13 = 99 , 14 = 45 , 15 = 25 , 16 = 11 , 17 = 11 , 18 = 3 , 19 = 3 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 } profit: - 4172302.0854641236 { 0 = 789930 , 1 = 394339 , 2 = 197224 , 3 = 98052 , 4 = 48951 , 5 = 24853 , 6 = 12473 , 7 = 6051 , 8 = 3077 , 9 = 1546 , 10 = 771 , 11 = 394 , 12 = 167 , 13 = 102 , 14 = 41 , 15 = 24 , 16 = 8 , 17 = 11 , 18 = 8 , 19 = 2 , 31 = 1 } { 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 , 24 = 1677721.625 , 25 = 3355443.25 , 26 = 6710886.5 , 27 = 1.3421773 E7, 28 = 2.6843546 E7, 29 = 5.3687092 E7, 30 = 1.07374184 E8, 31 = 2.14748368 E8} 我们看到利润已经跌到了120000,并且感受到了退出模拟的问题——在某些情况下,在回撤的过程中,一旦测试的局数结束,损失并没有赢回来。稍后可以解决此问题。总的来说,到目前为止我还没有看到好处。而且从实际的角度来看,不会有机会(甚至是愿望,感谢上帝)大量增加账户,这要么是机构的限制,要么只是常识 - 存款超过一百万美元在 DC 中,我认为它会简单地关闭)))因此,我们将继续测试增加 2,但在连续不同系列的损失之后退出并退出损失(即我们只增加 x 次 - 一、二、三等,然后重新开始初始批次)。这将需要对程序稍作改动。但是首先,您仍然可以尝试像以前一样做,但是使用较小的资金来减少连续失败的次数,而不是现在的 32 次,而是假设为 20、15、10、7、5、4、3再看崩盘的发生概率,盈利。 Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.11 13:42 #33 新版本的软件,如果有人感兴趣的话public class CheckupCoinGame { private static final Random RANDOM = new Random(); private static final int REPETITION = 10; private static final long ITERATIONS = 3_153_600; private Map<Integer, Integer> series; private Map<Integer, Double> bets; private double initialBet; private static final double MARTIN_KOEFF = 2.0; private double profit; private double currentBet; private static final double COMMISSION = 0.00; private static final double MAX_COMMISSION = 5.0; private int losingInRow; private int failCount; private static final int MAX_SERIES = 3; public CheckupCoinGame(double initialBet) { this.initialBet = initialBet; series = new HashMap<>(); bets = new HashMap<>(); init(); } public void init() { series.clear(); bets.clear(); profit = 0.0; losingInRow = 0; currentBet = initialBet; failCount = 0; } public int getLosingInRow() { return losingInRow; } public void printSeries() { System.out.println("profit: "+profit+" fails: "+failCount+"("+failCount/(double)ITERATIONS*100.0+"%)"); System.out.println(series.toString()); System.out.println(bets.toString()); System.out.println(); } public void play() { profit -= currentBet; if(RANDOM.nextBoolean()) { double prize = currentBet*2.0; double commission = prize*COMMISSION; if(commission>MAX_COMMISSION) commission = MAX_COMMISSION; if(series.get(losingInRow)==null) series.put(losingInRow, 1); else series.put(losingInRow, series.get(losingInRow)+1); currentBet = initialBet; losingInRow = 0; profit += prize-commission; } else { currentBet = currentBet * MARTIN_KOEFF; losingInRow++; if(losingInRow>MAX_SERIES) { currentBet = initialBet; losingInRow = 0; failCount++; } if(bets.get(losingInRow)==null) bets.put(losingInRow, currentBet); } } public static void main(String[] args) { CheckupCoinGame coinGame = new CheckupCoinGame(0.1); for(int i=0; i<REPETITION; i++) { coinGame.init(); for(long j=0; j<ITERATIONS; j++) { coinGame.play(); } while(coinGame.getLosingInRow()!=0) coinGame.play(); coinGame.printSeries(); } } }总之,我测试了,如果你忍受任何组合的损失(0,2,3,20之后--任何)--在没有佣金的测试中,期望值总是为零。所以根本就没有什么优势(与第一种情况不同)。下面是将其设置为最多增加3倍的结果。profit: 1064.4000000010242 fails: 104485(3.313197615423643%) {0=841720, 1=420343, 2=210167, 3=105689} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8} profit: -592.5000000111686 fails: 105469(3.344400050735667%) {0=840210, 1=420909, 2=210267, 3=104724} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8} profit: 89.59999999777897 fails: 105038(3.3307331303906644%) {0=840330, 1=420664, 2=210097, 3=105375} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8} profit: 133.59999999348236 fails: 105075(3.331906392694064%) {0=841801, 1=420508, 2=210124, 3=105028} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8} profit: -9.599999996863112 fails: 105251(3.337487316083206%) {0=844023, 1=420160, 2=209691, 3=104795} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8} profit: 701.9999999914036 fails: 104714(3.320459157787925%) {0=840924, 1=421350, 2=210704, 3=104752} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8} profit: -962.3000000318344 fails: 105685(3.3512493658041604%) {0=840870, 1=419495, 2=210148, 3=105139} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8} profit: 746.2999999787268 fails: 104627(3.3177004058853377%) {0=840081, 1=420623, 2=210889, 3=105275} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8} profit: 716.9999999892076 fails: 104750(3.3216007102993403%) {0=842449, 1=420843, 2=210046, 3=105082} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8} profit: 788.0999999872712 fails: 104674(3.319190766108574%) {0=842199, 1=420400, 2=209663, 3=105729} {0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}3%以上的人有不愉快的感觉。我不认为在这里描述一些东西和计算必要的银行资金有任何意义,因为期望值是零,当然还有佣金是负的。 Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.12 11:23 #34 在你忍受输钱的情况下--零期望适用于任何倍数,无论是2,还是其他,我试过1.5,1.75,3.0。没有什么区别,只是数值越大,差异越大。我在想,如果不忍心输掉,还可以试试不乘以2.0,还可以看看其他变化。直观地看,从1到2的一些乘法似乎也应该得到结果。总之,在1.5的情况下,可以清楚地看到,它没有带来任何优势,是零。在1.75的情况下,不是很清楚,要么也是零,要么仍然存在一些微观的优势(没有佣金),我倾向于最后一种选择--测试20亿场。profit: 2766267.3014452904 fails: 0(0.0%) {0=499979571, 1=250013092, 2=124999950, 3=62494015, 4=31247634, 5=15626081, 6=7812455, 7=3906885, 8=1952484, 9=977436, 10=488396, 11=244308, 12=122312, 13=61360, 14=30526, 15=15472, 16=7708, 17=3869, 18=1944, 19=881, 20=496, 21=224, 22=112, 23=62, 24=34, 25=11, 26=7, 27=3, 28=1, 29=1} {1=0.175, 2=0.30625, 3=0.5359375, 4=0.9378906, 5=1.6413085, 6=2.87229, 7=5.0265074, 8=8.796388, 9=15.393679, 10=26.938938, 11=47.143143, 12=82.5005, 13=144.37589, 14=252.6578, 15=442.15115, 16=773.7645, 17=1354.0879, 18=2369.6538, 19=4146.894, 20=7257.0645, 21=12699.863, 22=22224.762, 23=38893.332, 24=68063.33, 25=119110.83, 26=208443.95, 27=364776.9, 28=638359.56, 29=1117129.2} 赚2766267 / 2,000,000,000 = 0.0013831335(即10美分赌注的1/10,这不算什么)。大于或等于2的增加是有效的,很明显,在赔率3.0时,所需的银行资金要多得多,期望值也高。你还能想到什么?减少?某种棘手的条件,如 "在缩减到x时,我们将增加一次,直到缩减结束"。到目前为止,我还没有设法从使用它中找到任何好处,我没有抱太大希望,我只是要确保,如果它起了作用,而没有什么资源可供获取,那就很奇怪了,大致如此。 prikolnyjkent 2017.11.12 17:39 #35 Stanislav Aksenov:...你还能想到什么?减少?某种棘手的条件,如 "在x的缩减时增加一次,直到你走出缩减"。到目前为止,我还没能找到使用它的好处,我没有抱太大希望,我只是要确定一下,如果它能起作用,那就很奇怪了,而且也没有什么可以从大概得到的资源。我可以问一个关于 "心理学 "的问题吗...?我不理解许多人试图从一个"组件 "中榨取利润的执着。 为什么不是 "如何成功地将几个 不同的 "组件 "组合成一个能够产生利润的系统 "的方向呢??.. 一根曲轴(即使是著名的白俄罗斯拖拉机的曲轴 )你会用多少? Georgiy Merts 2017.11.12 17:58 #36 斯坦尼斯拉夫-阿克塞诺夫, 有什么可想的? 一切都在很久之前就已经计算好了。马丁格尔是一个可行的系统,但与所需存款相比,利润太小。 有必要设定在一次试验中获胜的概率(例如0.6,但可能低于一半),系列的数量(例如100000)和在所有这些时间内不输的概率(例如99%)。一个简单的计算表明,我们必须连续承受18次亏损,这意味着存款规模必须等于256K的初始赌注(总结果将是99%概率的+100K赌注和1%概率的-256K赌注)。 给我们不同的条件--都很容易重新计算。为什么要做一些可怕的计算? Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.13 04:59 #37 George Merts:斯坦尼斯拉夫-阿克塞诺夫, 有什么好想的呢?为什么要做一些可怕的计算? 他们在哪里可怕?相反,我努力以最清晰的方式展示/证明,没有公式,从实际角度出发,通过经验。顺便说一下,18号系列的产品在一百万中出现一次,这比1%少得多。一连5次的情况发生在0.8%的时候。为什么会达到+100的投注量?总的结果将是零。 Georgiy Merts 2017.11.13 05:08 #38 Stanislav Aksenov:顺便说一下,18号系列的产品在一百万中出现一次,这比1%少得多。1%是泄露所有100,000集的概率。 这是关于别的东西--马丁格尔是关于将频繁的小损失转移到罕见的大损失区域。要保持盈利的唯一可能性是将损失转移到极少损失的区域,并及时停止交易。但在这种情况下,存款要求大得不成比例。而意识丧失后,这种存款的主人会找到更有利的用途。 Vitaly Muzichenko 2017.11.13 05:12 #39 George Merts:1%是失去整个100,000系列的概率。 这一点是不同的--马丁格尔是将频繁的小损失转移到罕见的大损失区域。而用它保持盈利的唯一方法是将损失转移到超频的区域,并及时停止交易。但在这种情况下,存款要求大得不成比例。而意识丧失后,这种存款的主人会找到 更有利的用途。 当然,你可以开一家面包店)。 Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.13 05:12 #40 George Merts:1%是失去整个100,000系列的概率。 这是关于别的东西--马丁格尔是关于将频繁的小损失转移到罕见的大损失区域。而保持黑色的唯一方法是将损失转移到超频的区域,并及时停止交易。但在这种情况下,存款要求大得不成比例。而意识丧失后,这种存款的主人会找到更有利的用途。那是如果你以不同的方式来看,对我来说,以美元为单位的利润更有意义,如果你只计算一系列的18次连续损失,它将趋于零。我同意你的结论,我也得出了完全相同的结论。 1234567 新评论 您错过了交易机会: 免费交易应用程序 8,000+信号可供复制 探索金融市场的经济新闻 注册 登录 拉丁字符(不带空格) 密码将被发送至该邮箱 发生错误 使用 Google 登录 您同意网站政策和使用条款 如果您没有帐号,请注册 可以使用cookies登录MQL5.com网站。 请在您的浏览器中启用必要的设置,否则您将无法登录。 忘记您的登录名/密码? 使用 Google 登录
对Anti-Martin的误解。反马丁是什么?
是在交易失败后减少了很多,还是
是否与马丁手下的交易立场相反?
我们有两个二元变量,即4个选项,其中只有一个是马丁,推测其他3个是反马丁。
这就是你有三个反马特。
但我有一个:与马丁相反,与交易 和MM的方向 相反(交易失败后减少很多)。
亚历山大-普扎诺夫。
如果你的反马汀带有防扩散、防委托和正向滑移的功能
而对这一琐事的纠结是 另一个分支的话题
...在这里,该同志纯粹是在一枚硬币上 测试问题![](https://c.mql5.com/3/160/pardon.gif)
我们之前的计算可以通过简单地运行3,153,600 场比赛的模拟来检查,让我们检查一下利润是多少:
我们的计算结果证明是正确的,我们看到了相同的利润。但是等等,在现实生活中,没有什么是免费的,而且还有佣金,现在让我们不要加太多,也不要加一点 1%,看看还剩下什么:
我们看到利润已经跌到了120000,并且感受到了退出模拟的问题——在某些情况下,在回撤的过程中,一旦测试的局数结束,损失并没有赢回来。稍后可以解决此问题。
总的来说,到目前为止我还没有看到好处。而且从实际的角度来看,不会有机会(甚至是愿望,感谢上帝)大量增加账户,这要么是机构的限制,要么只是常识 - 存款超过一百万美元在 DC 中,我认为它会简单地关闭)))
因此,我们将继续测试增加 2,但在连续不同系列的损失之后退出并退出损失(即我们只增加 x 次 - 一、二、三等,然后重新开始初始批次)。这将需要对程序稍作改动。
但是首先,您仍然可以尝试像以前一样做,但是使用较小的资金来减少连续失败的次数,而不是现在的 32 次,而是假设为 20、15、10、7、5、4、3再看崩盘的发生概率,盈利。
新版本的软件,如果有人感兴趣的话
总之,我测试了,如果你忍受任何组合的损失(0,2,3,20之后--任何)--在没有佣金的测试中,期望值总是为零。所以根本就没有什么优势(与第一种情况不同)。
下面是将其设置为最多增加3倍的结果。
3%以上的人有不愉快的感觉。
我不认为在这里描述一些东西和计算必要的银行资金有任何意义,因为期望值是零,当然还有佣金是负的。
在你忍受输钱的情况下--零期望适用于任何倍数,无论是2,还是其他,我试过1.5,1.75,3.0。没有什么区别,只是数值越大,差异越大。
我在想,如果不忍心输掉,还可以试试不乘以2.0,还可以看看其他变化。直观地看,从1到2的一些乘法似乎也应该得到结果。总之,在1.5的情况下,可以清楚地看到,它没有带来任何优势,是零。在1.75的情况下,不是很清楚,要么也是零,要么仍然存在一些微观的优势(没有佣金),我倾向于最后一种选择--测试20亿场。
赚2766267 / 2,000,000,000 = 0.0013831335(即10美分赌注的1/10,这不算什么)。
大于或等于2的增加是有效的,很明显,在赔率3.0时,所需的银行资金要多得多,期望值也高。
你还能想到什么?减少?某种棘手的条件,如 "在缩减到x时,我们将增加一次,直到缩减结束"。
到目前为止,我还没有设法从使用它中找到任何好处,我没有抱太大希望,我只是要确保,如果它起了作用,而没有什么资源可供获取,那就很奇怪了,大致如此。
...
你还能想到什么?减少?某种棘手的条件,如 "在x的缩减时增加一次,直到你走出缩减"。
到目前为止,我还没能找到使用它的好处,我没有抱太大希望,我只是要确定一下,如果它能起作用,那就很奇怪了,而且也没有什么可以从大概得到的资源。
我可以问一个关于 "心理学 "的问题吗...?
我不理解许多人试图从一个"组件 "中榨取利润的执着。
)你会用多少?
为什么不是 "如何成功地将几个 不同的 "组件 "组合成一个能够产生利润的系统 "的方向呢??..
一根曲轴(即使是著名的白俄罗斯拖拉机的曲轴
斯坦尼斯拉夫-阿克塞诺夫, 有什么可想的?
一切都在很久之前就已经计算好了。马丁格尔是一个可行的系统,但与所需存款相比,利润太小。
有必要设定在一次试验中获胜的概率(例如0.6,但可能低于一半),系列的数量(例如100000)和在所有这些时间内不输的概率(例如99%)。
一个简单的计算表明,我们必须连续承受18次亏损,这意味着存款规模必须等于256K的初始赌注(总结果将是99%概率的+100K赌注和1%概率的-256K赌注)。
给我们不同的条件--都很容易重新计算。
为什么要做一些可怕的计算?
斯坦尼斯拉夫-阿克塞诺夫, 有什么好想的呢?
为什么要做一些可怕的计算?
他们在哪里可怕?相反,我努力以最清晰的方式展示/证明,没有公式,从实际角度出发,通过经验。
顺便说一下,18号系列的产品在一百万中出现一次,这比1%少得多。一连5次的情况发生在0.8%的时候。为什么会达到+100的投注量?总的结果将是零。
顺便说一下,18号系列的产品在一百万中出现一次,这比1%少得多。
1%是泄露所有100,000集的概率。
这是关于别的东西--马丁格尔是关于将频繁的小损失转移到罕见的大损失区域。要保持盈利的唯一可能性是将损失转移到极少损失的区域,并及时停止交易。但在这种情况下,存款要求大得不成比例。而意识丧失后,这种存款的主人会找到更有利的用途。
1%是失去整个100,000系列的概率。
这一点是不同的--马丁格尔是将频繁的小损失转移到罕见的大损失区域。而用它保持盈利的唯一方法是将损失转移到超频的区域,并及时停止交易。但在这种情况下,存款要求大得不成比例。而意识丧失后,这种存款的主人会找到 更有利的用途。
1%是失去整个100,000系列的概率。
这是关于别的东西--马丁格尔是关于将频繁的小损失转移到罕见的大损失区域。而保持黑色的唯一方法是将损失转移到超频的区域,并及时停止交易。但在这种情况下,存款要求大得不成比例。而意识丧失后,这种存款的主人会找到更有利的用途。
那是如果你以不同的方式来看,对我来说,以美元为单位的利润更有意义,如果你只计算一系列的18次连续损失,它将趋于零。
我同意你的结论,我也得出了完全相同的结论。