利用硬币游戏的模拟研究马丁格尔的适用性

prikolnyjkent 2017.11.10 13:32 #31

Nikolay Demko:

对Anti-Martin的误解。反马丁是什么？

是在交易失败后减少了很多，还是

是否与马丁手下的交易立场相反？

我们有两个二元变量，即4个选项，其中只有一个是马丁，推测其他3个是反马丁。

这就是你有三个反马特。
但我有一个：与马丁相反，与交易和MM的方向相反（交易失败后减少很多）。

亚历山大-普扎诺夫。

如果你的反马汀带有防扩散、防委托和正向滑移的功能

而对这一琐事的纠结是 另一个分支的话题...在这里，该同志纯粹是在一枚硬币上 测试问题

Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.10 15:32 #32

我们之前的计算可以通过简单地运行3,153,600 场比赛的模拟来检查，让我们检查一下利润是多少：

profit: 157632.60234890878
{ 0 = 788417 , 1 = 393279 , 2 = 196918 , 3 = 99323 , 4 = 49040 , 5 = 24706 , 6 = 12390 , 7 = 6091 , 8 = 3088 , 9 = 1511 , 10 = 796 , 11 = 375 , 12 = 183 , 13 = 100 , 14 = 50 , 15 = 30 , 16 = 17 , 17 = 7 , 18 = 3 , 19 = 1 , 25 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 , 24 = 1677721.625 , 25 = 3355443.25 }
profit: 157674.9023495391
{ 0 = 788781 , 1 = 393239 , 2 = 197561 , 3 = 98682 , 4 = 49031 , 5 = 24882 , 6 = 12329 , 7 = 6136 , 8 = 3051 , 9 = 1483 , 10 = 803 , 11 = 408 , 12 = 199 , 13 = 73 , 14 = 58 , 15 = 16 , 16 = 6 , 17 = 5 , 18 = 5 , 22 = 1 , 27 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 , 24 = 1677721.625 , 25 = 3355443.25 , 26 = 6710886.5 , 27 = 1.3421773 E7}
profit: 157621.90234874934
{ 0 = 788127 , 1 = 393663 , 2 = 197306 , 3 = 98323 , 4 = 49360 , 5 = 24656 , 6 = 12424 , 7 = 6226 , 8 = 3048 , 9 = 1559 , 10 = 777 , 11 = 375 , 12 = 169 , 13 = 105 , 14 = 51 , 15 = 20 , 16 = 17 , 17 = 6 , 18 = 4 , 19 = 2 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 , 22 = 2 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 }
profit: 157641.30234903842
{ 0 = 788369 , 1 = 393927 , 2 = 196455 , 3 = 98892 , 4 = 49693 , 5 = 24609 , 6 = 12133 , 7 = 6076 , 8 = 3085 , 9 = 1547 , 10 = 818 , 11 = 385 , 12 = 218 , 13 = 98 , 14 = 51 , 15 = 35 , 16 = 9 , 17 = 3 , 18 = 6 , 19 = 3 , 20 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 }
profit: 157530.60234738886
{ 0 = 786859 , 1 = 393728 , 2 = 197400 , 3 = 98421 , 4 = 49673 , 5 = 24537 , 6 = 12262 , 7 = 6167 , 8 = 3133 , 9 = 1542 , 10 = 799 , 11 = 392 , 12 = 173 , 13 = 110 , 14 = 65 , 15 = 24 , 16 = 18 , 17 = 2 , 19 = 1 , 22 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 }
profit: 157765.30235088617
{ 0 = 788939 , 1 = 395345 , 2 = 196607 , 3 = 98383 , 4 = 49182 , 5 = 24447 , 6 = 12368 , 7 = 6181 , 8 = 3157 , 9 = 1495 , 10 = 767 , 11 = 398 , 12 = 165 , 13 = 116 , 14 = 57 , 15 = 17 , 16 = 14 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 7 , 19 = 1 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 , 23 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 }
profit: 157589.70234826952
{ 0 = 787785 , 1 = 393602 , 2 = 197476 , 3 = 98136 , 4 = 49575 , 5 = 24489 , 6 = 12460 , 7 = 6132 , 8 = 3063 , 9 = 1597 , 10 = 791 , 11 = 403 , 12 = 187 , 13 = 98 , 14 = 51 , 15 = 24 , 16 = 14 , 17 = 6 , 18 = 3 , 19 = 4 , 20 = 1 , 22 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 }
profit: 157714.10235012323
{ 0 = 789208 , 1 = 393822 , 2 = 196983 , 3 = 98452 , 4 = 49316 , 5 = 24690 , 6 = 12358 , 7 = 6146 , 8 = 3136 , 9 = 1515 , 10 = 768 , 11 = 371 , 12 = 184 , 13 = 88 , 14 = 43 , 15 = 37 , 16 = 9 , 17 = 5 , 18 = 5 , 19 = 5 , 22 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 }
profit: 157639.90234901756
{ 0 = 788547 , 1 = 394045 , 2 = 196710 , 3 = 98051 , 4 = 49597 , 5 = 24544 , 6 = 12389 , 7 = 6263 , 8 = 3176 , 9 = 1520 , 10 = 768 , 11 = 378 , 12 = 196 , 13 = 109 , 14 = 58 , 15 = 20 , 16 = 18 , 17 = 5 , 18 = 1 , 19 = 1 , 20 = 3 , 21 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 }
profit: 157710.70235007256
{ 0 = 788631 , 1 = 395061 , 2 = 196330 , 3 = 98508 , 4 = 49351 , 5 = 24474 , 6 = 12363 , 7 = 6155 , 8 = 3102 , 9 = 1522 , 10 = 812 , 11 = 414 , 12 = 195 , 13 = 91 , 14 = 44 , 15 = 28 , 16 = 11 , 17 = 8 , 18 = 5 , 19 = 2 , 22 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 }

我们的计算结果证明是正确的，我们看到了相同的利润。但是等等，在现实生活中，没有什么是免费的，而且还有佣金，现在让我们不要加太多，也不要加一点 1%，看看还剩下什么：

profit: 88822.49086572754
{ 0 = 789162 , 1 = 394784 , 2 = 196963 , 3 = 98538 , 4 = 49499 , 5 = 24317 , 6 = 12326 , 7 = 6065 , 8 = 3140 , 9 = 1531 , 10 = 783 , 11 = 380 , 12 = 175 , 13 = 87 , 14 = 40 , 15 = 22 , 16 = 11 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 6 , 19 = 1 , 21 = 1 , 24 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 , 24 = 1677721.625 }
profit: 123625.2866022763
{ 0 = 786908 , 1 = 394133 , 2 = 197405 , 3 = 98932 , 4 = 49458 , 5 = 24430 , 6 = 12308 , 7 = 6175 , 8 = 3105 , 9 = 1510 , 10 = 786 , 11 = 371 , 12 = 159 , 13 = 95 , 14 = 51 , 15 = 21 , 16 = 10 , 17 = 6 , 18 = 2 , 19 = 5 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 }
profit: 121507.11862347
{ 0 = 790402 , 1 = 393787 , 2 = 196971 , 3 = 99023 , 4 = 49062 , 5 = 24533 , 6 = 12165 , 7 = 6157 , 8 = 3095 , 9 = 1537 , 10 = 783 , 11 = 367 , 12 = 196 , 13 = 100 , 14 = 52 , 15 = 21 , 16 = 13 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 2 , 19 = 1 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 }
profit: 122120.13661360118
{ 0 = 787529 , 1 = 393583 , 2 = 197336 , 3 = 98729 , 4 = 49332 , 5 = 24912 , 6 = 12176 , 7 = 6190 , 8 = 3086 , 9 = 1516 , 10 = 754 , 11 = 398 , 12 = 205 , 13 = 79 , 14 = 36 , 15 = 15 , 16 = 13 , 17 = 7 , 18 = 7 , 19 = 2 , 20 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 }
profit: 122313.38861370487
{ 0 = 788149 , 1 = 394042 , 2 = 197090 , 3 = 98480 , 4 = 49415 , 5 = 24699 , 6 = 12456 , 7 = 6148 , 8 = 3084 , 9 = 1494 , 10 = 757 , 11 = 362 , 12 = 204 , 13 = 87 , 14 = 41 , 15 = 21 , 16 = 10 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 2 , 19 = 1 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 }
profit: 114498.12267213926
{ 0 = 788244 , 1 = 394497 , 2 = 197078 , 3 = 98618 , 4 = 48759 , 5 = 24987 , 6 = 12212 , 7 = 6249 , 8 = 2959 , 9 = 1588 , 10 = 780 , 11 = 407 , 12 = 197 , 13 = 103 , 14 = 38 , 15 = 23 , 16 = 14 , 17 = 6 , 18 = 4 , 19 = 2 , 20 = 3 , 21 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 }
profit: 120198.54263129225
{ 0 = 788848 , 1 = 394688 , 2 = 196769 , 3 = 98486 , 4 = 49361 , 5 = 24837 , 6 = 12348 , 7 = 6030 , 8 = 3042 , 9 = 1507 , 10 = 728 , 11 = 427 , 12 = 167 , 13 = 102 , 14 = 35 , 15 = 28 , 16 = 10 , 17 = 9 , 18 = 5 , 20 = 1 , 21 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 }
profit: 124012.17660451238
{ 0 = 790067 , 1 = 393780 , 2 = 197418 , 3 = 98537 , 4 = 49094 , 5 = 24588 , 6 = 12353 , 7 = 6162 , 8 = 3066 , 9 = 1526 , 10 = 735 , 11 = 373 , 12 = 191 , 13 = 99 , 14 = 43 , 15 = 29 , 16 = 13 , 17 = 4 , 18 = 3 , 19 = 2 , 20 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 }
profit: 122983.42060590046
{ 0 = 786979 , 1 = 394002 , 2 = 197291 , 3 = 97998 , 4 = 49489 , 5 = 24802 , 6 = 12214 , 7 = 6223 , 8 = 3200 , 9 = 1551 , 10 = 774 , 11 = 388 , 12 = 213 , 13 = 99 , 14 = 45 , 15 = 25 , 16 = 11 , 17 = 11 , 18 = 3 , 19 = 3 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 }
profit: - 4172302.0854641236
{ 0 = 789930 , 1 = 394339 , 2 = 197224 , 3 = 98052 , 4 = 48951 , 5 = 24853 , 6 = 12473 , 7 = 6051 , 8 = 3077 , 9 = 1546 , 10 = 771 , 11 = 394 , 12 = 167 , 13 = 102 , 14 = 41 , 15 = 24 , 16 = 8 , 17 = 11 , 18 = 8 , 19 = 2 , 31 = 1 }
{ 1 = 0.20000000298023224 , 2 = 0.4000000059604645 , 3 = 0.800000011920929 , 4 = 1.600000023841858 , 5 = 3.200000047683716 , 6 = 6.400000095367432 , 7 = 12.800000190734863 , 8 = 25.600000381469727 , 9 = 51.20000076293945 , 10 = 102.4000015258789 , 11 = 204.8000030517578 , 12 = 409.6000061035156 , 13 = 819.2000122070312 , 14 = 1638.4000244140625 , 15 = 3276.800048828125 , 16 = 6553.60009765625 , 17 = 13107.2001953125 , 18 = 26214.400390625 , 19 = 52428.80078125 , 20 = 104857.6015625 , 21 = 209715.203125 , 22 = 419430.40625 , 23 = 838860.8125 , 24 = 1677721.625 , 25 = 3355443.25 , 26 = 6710886.5 , 27 = 1.3421773 E7, 28 = 2.6843546 E7, 29 = 5.3687092 E7, 30 = 1.07374184 E8, 31 = 2.14748368 E8}

我们看到利润已经跌到了120000，并且感受到了退出模拟的问题——在某些情况下，在回撤的过程中，一旦测试的局数结束，损失并没有赢回来。稍后可以解决此问题。

总的来说，到目前为止我还没有看到好处。而且从实际的角度来看，不会有机会（甚至是愿望，感谢上帝）大量增加账户，这要么是机构的限制，要么只是常识 - 存款超过一百万美元在 DC 中，我认为它会简单地关闭）））

因此，我们将继续测试增加 2，但在连续不同系列的损失之后退出并退出损失（即我们只增加 x 次 - 一、二、三等，然后重新开始初始批次）。这将需要对程序稍作改动。

但是首先，您仍然可以尝试像以前一样做，但是使用较小的资金来减少连续失败的次数，而不是现在的 32 次，而是假设为 20、15、10、7、5、4、3再看崩盘的发生概率，盈利。

Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.11 13:42 #33

新版本的软件，如果有人感兴趣的话

public class CheckupCoinGame {
        private static final Random RANDOM = new Random();
        private static final int REPETITION = 10;
        private static final long ITERATIONS = 3_153_600;
        private Map<Integer, Integer> series;
        private Map<Integer, Double> bets;
        private double initialBet;
        private static final double MARTIN_KOEFF = 2.0;
        private double profit;
        private double currentBet;
        private static final double COMMISSION = 0.00;
        private static final double MAX_COMMISSION = 5.0;
        private int losingInRow;
        private int failCount;
        private static final int MAX_SERIES = 3;
        
        public CheckupCoinGame(double initialBet) {
                this.initialBet = initialBet;
                series = new HashMap<>();
                bets = new HashMap<>();
                init();
        }
        public void init() {
                series.clear();
                bets.clear();
                profit = 0.0;
                losingInRow = 0;
                currentBet = initialBet;
                failCount = 0;
        }
        public int getLosingInRow() {
                return losingInRow;
        }
        public void printSeries() {
                System.out.println("profit: "+profit+" fails: "+failCount+"("+failCount/(double)ITERATIONS*100.0+"%)");
                System.out.println(series.toString());
                System.out.println(bets.toString());
                System.out.println();
        }
        public void play() {
                profit -= currentBet;
                if(RANDOM.nextBoolean()) {
                        double prize = currentBet*2.0;
                        double commission = prize*COMMISSION;
                        if(commission>MAX_COMMISSION) commission = MAX_COMMISSION;
                        
                        if(series.get(losingInRow)==null) series.put(losingInRow, 1);
                        else series.put(losingInRow, series.get(losingInRow)+1);
                        
                        currentBet = initialBet;
                        losingInRow = 0;
                        profit += prize-commission;
                }
                else {
                        currentBet = currentBet * MARTIN_KOEFF;
                        losingInRow++;
                        if(losingInRow>MAX_SERIES) {
                                currentBet = initialBet;
                                losingInRow = 0;
                                failCount++;
                        }
                        if(bets.get(losingInRow)==null) bets.put(losingInRow, currentBet);
                }
        }
        
        public static void main(String[] args) {
                CheckupCoinGame coinGame = new CheckupCoinGame(0.1);
                for(int i=0; i<REPETITION; i++) {
                        coinGame.init();
                        for(long j=0; j<ITERATIONS; j++) {
                                coinGame.play();
                        }
                        while(coinGame.getLosingInRow()!=0) coinGame.play();
                        coinGame.printSeries();
                }
        }
        
}

总之，我测试了，如果你忍受任何组合的损失（0,2,3,20之后--任何）--在没有佣金的测试中，期望值总是为零。所以根本就没有什么优势（与第一种情况不同）。

下面是将其设置为最多增加3倍的结果。

profit: 1064.4000000010242 fails: 104485(3.313197615423643%)
{0=841720, 1=420343, 2=210167, 3=105689}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}
profit: -592.5000000111686 fails: 105469(3.344400050735667%)
{0=840210, 1=420909, 2=210267, 3=104724}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}
profit: 89.59999999777897 fails: 105038(3.3307331303906644%)
{0=840330, 1=420664, 2=210097, 3=105375}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}
profit: 133.59999999348236 fails: 105075(3.331906392694064%)
{0=841801, 1=420508, 2=210124, 3=105028}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}
profit: -9.599999996863112 fails: 105251(3.337487316083206%)
{0=844023, 1=420160, 2=209691, 3=104795}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}
profit: 701.9999999914036 fails: 104714(3.320459157787925%)
{0=840924, 1=421350, 2=210704, 3=104752}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}
profit: -962.3000000318344 fails: 105685(3.3512493658041604%)
{0=840870, 1=419495, 2=210148, 3=105139}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}
profit: 746.2999999787268 fails: 104627(3.3177004058853377%)
{0=840081, 1=420623, 2=210889, 3=105275}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}
profit: 716.9999999892076 fails: 104750(3.3216007102993403%)
{0=842449, 1=420843, 2=210046, 3=105082}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}
profit: 788.0999999872712 fails: 104674(3.319190766108574%)
{0=842199, 1=420400, 2=209663, 3=105729}
{0=0.1, 1=0.2, 2=0.4, 3=0.8}

3%以上的人有不愉快的感觉。

我不认为在这里描述一些东西和计算必要的银行资金有任何意义，因为期望值是零，当然还有佣金是负的。

Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.12 11:23 #34

在你忍受输钱的情况下--零期望适用于任何倍数，无论是2，还是其他，我试过1.5，1.75，3.0。没有什么区别，只是数值越大，差异越大。

我在想，如果不忍心输掉，还可以试试不乘以2.0，还可以看看其他变化。直观地看，从1到2的一些乘法似乎也应该得到结果。总之，在1.5的情况下，可以清楚地看到，它没有带来任何优势，是零。在1.75的情况下，不是很清楚，要么也是零，要么仍然存在一些微观的优势（没有佣金），我倾向于最后一种选择--测试20亿场。

profit: 2766267.3014452904 fails: 0(0.0%)
{0=499979571, 1=250013092, 2=124999950, 3=62494015, 4=31247634, 5=15626081, 6=7812455, 7=3906885, 8=1952484, 9=977436, 10=488396, 11=244308, 12=122312, 13=61360, 14=30526, 15=15472, 16=7708, 17=3869, 18=1944, 19=881, 20=496, 21=224, 22=112, 23=62, 24=34, 25=11, 26=7, 27=3, 28=1, 29=1}
{1=0.175, 2=0.30625, 3=0.5359375, 4=0.9378906, 5=1.6413085, 6=2.87229, 7=5.0265074, 8=8.796388, 9=15.393679, 10=26.938938, 11=47.143143, 12=82.5005, 13=144.37589, 14=252.6578, 15=442.15115, 16=773.7645, 17=1354.0879, 18=2369.6538, 19=4146.894, 20=7257.0645, 21=12699.863, 22=22224.762, 23=38893.332, 24=68063.33, 25=119110.83, 26=208443.95, 27=364776.9, 28=638359.56, 29=1117129.2}

赚2766267 / 2,000,000,000 = 0.0013831335（即10美分赌注的1/10，这不算什么）。

大于或等于2的增加是有效的，很明显，在赔率3.0时，所需的银行资金要多得多，期望值也高。

你还能想到什么？减少？某种棘手的条件，如 "在缩减到x时，我们将增加一次，直到缩减结束"。

到目前为止，我还没有设法从使用它中找到任何好处，我没有抱太大希望，我只是要确保，如果它起了作用，而没有什么资源可供获取，那就很奇怪了，大致如此。

prikolnyjkent 2017.11.12 17:39 #35

Stanislav Aksenov:

...

你还能想到什么？减少？某种棘手的条件，如 "在x的缩减时增加一次，直到你走出缩减"。

到目前为止，我还没能找到使用它的好处，我没有抱太大希望，我只是要确定一下，如果它能起作用，那就很奇怪了，而且也没有什么可以从大概得到的资源。

我可以问一个关于 "心理学 "的问题吗...？

我不理解许多人试图从一个"组件 "中榨取利润的执着。
为什么不是 "如何成功地将几个不同的 "组件 "组合成一个能够产生利润的系统 "的方向呢？?..
一根曲轴（即使是著名的白俄罗斯拖拉机的曲轴）你会用多少？

Georgiy Merts 2017.11.12 17:58 #36

斯坦尼斯拉夫-阿克塞诺夫， 有什么可想的？

一切都在很久之前就已经计算好了。马丁格尔是一个可行的系统，但与所需存款相比，利润太小。

有必要设定在一次试验中获胜的概率（例如0.6，但可能低于一半），系列的数量（例如100000）和在所有这些时间内不输的概率（例如99%）。

一个简单的计算表明，我们必须连续承受18次亏损，这意味着存款规模必须等于256K的初始赌注（总结果将是99%概率的+100K赌注和1%概率的-256K赌注）。

给我们不同的条件--都很容易重新计算。

为什么要做一些可怕的计算？

Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.13 04:59 #37

George Merts:

斯坦尼斯拉夫-阿克塞诺夫， 有什么好想的呢？

为什么要做一些可怕的计算？

他们在哪里可怕？相反，我努力以最清晰的方式展示/证明，没有公式，从实际角度出发，通过经验。

顺便说一下，18号系列的产品在一百万中出现一次，这比1%少得多。一连5次的情况发生在0.8%的时候。为什么会达到+100的投注量？总的结果将是零。

Georgiy Merts 2017.11.13 05:08 #38

Stanislav Aksenov:

顺便说一下，18号系列的产品在一百万中出现一次，这比1%少得多。

1%是泄露所有100,000集的概率。

这是关于别的东西--马丁格尔是关于将频繁的小损失转移到罕见的大损失区域。要保持盈利的唯一可能性是将损失转移到极少损失的区域，并及时停止交易。但在这种情况下，存款要求大得不成比例。而意识丧失后，这种存款的主人会找到更有利的用途。

Vitaly Muzichenko 2017.11.13 05:12 #39

George Merts:

1%是失去整个100,000系列的概率。

这一点是不同的--马丁格尔是将频繁的小损失转移到罕见的大损失区域。而用它保持盈利的唯一方法是将损失转移到超频的区域，并及时停止交易。但在这种情况下，存款要求大得不成比例。而意识丧失后，这种存款的主人会找到 更有利的用途。

当然，你可以开一家面包店）。

Stanislav Aksenov 2017.11.13 05:12 #40

George Merts:

1%是失去整个100,000系列的概率。

这是关于别的东西--马丁格尔是关于将频繁的小损失转移到罕见的大损失区域。而保持黑色的唯一方法是将损失转移到超频的区域，并及时停止交易。但在这种情况下，存款要求大得不成比例。而意识丧失后，这种存款的主人会找到更有利的用途。

那是如果你以不同的方式来看，对我来说，以美元为单位的利润更有意义，如果你只计算一系列的18次连续损失，它将趋于零。

我同意你的结论，我也得出了完全相同的结论。

利用硬币游戏的模拟研究马丁格尔的适用性 - 页 4