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Piyush Ratnu is an independent forex market analyst & trader with core expertise in XAUUSD/Spot Gold.

With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.

Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.

Core strength:

Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading

Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.

Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.

Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold

Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!

Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:

X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial

Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial

Risk Disclaimer:

Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.

The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.

Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘 Co-relations Alert:

USDJPY CMP $148.300 (23.10.2023 range)
XAUUSD was at $1926 on 23.10.2023
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
In 2020, the gold's record rally was fueled by pandemic-related fears and the Fed's cheap liquidity. COVID-19 gave rise to much uncertainty, favorable to safe-haven assets, while the Fed's aspiration to save the US economy using huge monetary stimuli weakened the greenback and reduced treasury yields. I have a sense of déjà vu at the end of 2023: the central bank is expected to loosen policy while geopolitics pushes investors to safe havens. Will gold update its historical peak, then?

Even if the evolution of many assets, starting with oil and shekel and ending with gold, indicates a de-escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East, the worst is yet to come. The truce will not last forever, while the advance of the Israeli army in Gaza will hardly be as fast as it has been so far.

In any case, geopolitics will remain the focus of investors’ attention. In 2024, we’ll have to deal with politics, too: nearly half the world's population will elect presidents. The developments in Mexico, Russia, the US, and elsewhere can shake up financial markets.

However, the Fed's loosening its policy seems to remain the main factor in the XAUUSD's rally. The odds of a Fed funds rate cut in 2024 increased drastically upon the publication of US inflation data for October. The derivatives predict a 100-point cut to 4.5%, with the first monetary expansion act scheduled for May.

Unsurprisingly, the yield on 10-year treasuries failed to consolidate above 5%, and the US dollar lost more than 3% of its value against major currencies and is about to close November with the worst monthly performance in two years. Gold usually thrives against such a background.

So, bullish sentiment dominates the market. ING forecasts an average price of $2,100 an ounce in Q4 2024. Goldman Sachs's estimate is $2,050 throughout the year on average, provided that the Fed drops the funds rate no earlier than October-December. Falling real bond yields and a weakening US dollar will support the precious metal.

If we add to this the increased activity of the People's Bank of China, which increased its gold reserves by 181 tonnes to 2,192 tonnes from January to September, as well as the high demand for gold in China, the prospects for the XAUUSD seem bullish ⚠️.

🟢 Hence, XAUUSD is forecast to reach new peaks as the demand is growing amid the geopolitical and political situation, central banks are showing support and the Fed's expected to introduce monetary stimuli. Let’s discuss it and make a trading plan.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
CMP $2019: I will wait till 19.00 hours for economic data before opening a trade set.

🆘Crucial Price Stops:

C: $2000/1996
R: $2030/2036
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
27.11.2023 | XAUUSD : Price Forecast | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu

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Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
$2019 - 2009 zone achieved as projected on 24.11.2023

🟢 Low of $2009.50 achieved at 17.44 hours

Selling at 2019, NAP Exit at 2011
Buying at 2009, Nap Exit CMP 2013

🆘 Both trades gave us NAP of 1200 pips today.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
$2005/2000 crucial NEXT BUY ZONE, 1996/ RT 2000

Looks like a possible scenario.

In my opinion GR 11 22 33 should work well.

CMP $2011 | XAUUSD
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
24.11.2023 | XAUUSD : Price Forecast | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu

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Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🔘Gold price struggles to gain any meaningful traction on the last day of the week.

🔘 A pickup in US bond yields acts as a headwind for the XAU/USD.

🔘The Fed rates uncertainty and a softer risk tone lend some support to the metal.

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and oscillates in a narrow trading band, below the $2,000 psychological mark through the first half of the European session. Investors now seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and are seeking more clarity over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path.

The FOMC minutes released on Tuesday struck a more hawkish tone. Adding to this, Wednesday's upbeat US labor market and consumer sentiment data fueled speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. This, along with a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding Gold price on the last day of the week.

⚠️ Daily XAUUSD Market Price Movers:

• A combination of diverging forces fails to provide any meaningful impetus to the Gold price and leads to a subdued/range-bound price action during the Asian session on Friday.

• A disconnect between the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook and market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 is holding back traders from placing directional bets around the XAU/USD.
• The FOMC meeting minutes released on Tuesday revealed that policymakers backed the case to keep interest rates higher for longer to tame inflation.

• Bets for a rate hike in December shrunk to zero following the release of the October inflation report. Moreover, the markets are pricing over a 25% chance of a rate cut as early as March 2024.

• Wednesday's upbeat US labor market and consumer sentiment data, along with rebounding US Treasury bond yields, lend support to the USD and cap gains for the precious metal.

• Dovish Fed expectations, meanwhile, warrant some caution for the USD bulls and might continue to lend some support to the commodity ahead of the flash US PMI prints for November.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘RISK SENTIMENT FAQS

🔘 What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

🔘 What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

🔘Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
23.11.2023 | XAUUSD : Price Forecast | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu

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Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
22.11.2023 | XAUUSD : Price Forecast | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu

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Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟢 18.30 hours today: Market Mover

18:30 JPY CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Oct) 0.3%
18:30 JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) 3.0% 2.8%
18:30 JPY National CPI (YoY) (Oct) 3.0%
18:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying -68.2B
18:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 388.4B

🟢 Thursday, November 23, 2023: HOLIDAY

All Day Holiday United States - Thanksgiving Day
All Day Holiday Japan - Workers Day

Price trap as a result of Low volumes might be faced.

Avoid big lots, pile ups.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟢 Strong Support H1AS5 ahead | rising USDJPY indicates -XAUUSD (1990/1985 zone) in next 30 minutes, reversal/retracement might result in $2009/2019 zone: Strong resistance zone.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
22.11.2023 | XAUUSD : Correlation based projections | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
ALERT: Market reversal in process:

🍎 USDJPY + 2000 pips

🟢 Pending impact on XAUUSD: - $60

🟢 Target: expect price zone: $1985/1966/1947

H1A100 H4A100 on radar | I will HOLD SHORT Trades 🆘

💠Expected Date Frame: 12.12.2023
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟢Daily XAUUSD Market Price Movers:

✔️ The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting revealed officials backing higher for longer interest rates for some time to tame inflation and underpin the US Dollar.

✔️ Market participants, however, seem convinced that the US central bank will keep rates steady rather than hiking and are pricing in the possibility of rate cuts by spring 2024.

✔️ The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield languishes near a two-month low and turns out to be a key factor driving some flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.

✔️ The National Association of Realtors reported that US Existing Home Sales fell in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million units or the lowest level in more than 13 years.

✔️ Israel and Hamas have agreed to a deal for the staggered release of 50 civilians held hostage in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a four-day halt to hostilities.

✔️ The US military conducted discrete, precision strikes against two Iran-backed facilities in Iraq in response to the attacks against US and Coalition forces by Iran and Iran-backed groups.

✔️ The markets reacted little to the latest development as there hasn't been any major escalation in the Middle East tensions, doing little to influence the safe-haven precious metal.

✔️ Traders now look to the US macro data – Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders and revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – for short-term impetus.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Stocks are still rocking and rolling in what’s been a strong month so far. The Dow closed about 200 points higher Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on five-day winning streaks.

Treasury yields have come down a bit, with hopes that the Federal Reserve is easing off its inflation-fighting rate-hiking initiative.

We’ll hear more about what the Fed’s thinking about inflation and the state of the economy with the central bank set to release the minutes from its last policy-setting meeting. 23.00 hours | Today ♾
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD marching towards $2005 due to co-relation based pending price movement (1965+40), as alerted in morning at 08.50 hours.

🟢 I will implement SHORT positions from 1999 in GR:

1 PG $6
1 PG $6
2 PG $6
2 PG $6
3 PG $6
3 PG $6
5 PG $6
5 PG $6

Net Price Mapping: $48: 2048 | NAP EXIT
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟢Co - relation alert:

USDJPY approaching 30.10.2023 Price zone
$149.000 on radar

In proportion

XAUUSD approaching 30.10.2023 Price Zone
$2009 on radar
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟢JPY Update:

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, adding to his earlier comments, said that the central bank does not have any specific plan yet on how it will sell ETFs and that a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) pushes up domestic inflation via a rise in import costs

🟢Quotes:

If the achievement of our price target approaches, we can discuss strategy and guidelines on exiting ultra-loose policy including the fate of our ETF buying.

When we sell ETFs we will do it in a way that avoids as much as possible causing market disruption, and huge losses on the BOJ's balance sheet.

Cannot say decisively that a weak JPY is negative for Japan's economy.

Weak JPY is positive for exports, and profits of globally operating Japanese firms.