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Piyush Ratnu is an independent forex market analyst & trader with core expertise in XAUUSD/Spot Gold.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price climbs further on neutral Fed bets
• Gold price extends its upside momentum above $1,930 as investors see the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% after its September monetary policy meeting. The decision will be announced on Wednesday.
• The precious metal kept attracting bids from the past three trading sessions as the upside in the US Dollar is expected to remain restricted on expectations of unchanged rates.
• US inflation is falling and the labor market is resilient despite higher interest rates, allowing policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged.
• The recent rise in Oil prices is exerting pressure on inflation but Fed policymakers generally consider core inflation, which doesn’t include energy prices, while framing monetary policy.
• For the interest rate guidance, the Fed is expected to keep the doors open for further policy tightening to ensure price stability.
• The Fed could keep interest rates elevated long enough to bring down inflation to 2%. This is likely to continue to build pressure on the US economy, particularly for the manufacturing and housing sectors.
• Any discussion about rate cuts would improve the appeal for the risk-perceived assets and dampen the US Dollar. Economists at Goldman Sachs expect Fed officials to signal a full percentage point of cuts next year but to keep expectations of one more interest rate increase this year to a range of 5.50%-5.75%.
• Worries about an economic slowdown due to higher interest rates for longer linger despite the current economic resilience. Shorter-term US Treasury yields have surpassed the yields offered in longer time frames, a situation that has historically indicated risks of a potential recession.
• As per the CME Group Fedwatch Tool, traders undoubtedly see interest rates remaining steady at 5.25%-5.50% after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. For the rest of the year, traders anticipate almost a 58% chance for the Fed to also keep monetary policy unchanged.
• About the US economic outlook, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said that she doesn’t see any signs that the economy will enter into a downturn as inflation is coming down and the labor market is quite strong.
• However, Yellen warned that a failure by Congress to pass the legislation to keep the government in control could elevate the risk of an economic slowdown.
• Later this week, investors will watch the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI September data to be reported by S&P Global. US factory activity has remained vulnerable due to higher interest rates. Firms are focusing on achieving efficiency by controlling costs in a deteriorating demand environment.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) seems well-supported above the crucial 105.00 level. Investors keep pumping money into the USD Index due to deepening fears of a global slowdown in a high-interest rate environment.
• Gold price extends its upside momentum above $1,930 as investors see the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% after its September monetary policy meeting. The decision will be announced on Wednesday.
• The precious metal kept attracting bids from the past three trading sessions as the upside in the US Dollar is expected to remain restricted on expectations of unchanged rates.
• US inflation is falling and the labor market is resilient despite higher interest rates, allowing policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged.
• The recent rise in Oil prices is exerting pressure on inflation but Fed policymakers generally consider core inflation, which doesn’t include energy prices, while framing monetary policy.
• For the interest rate guidance, the Fed is expected to keep the doors open for further policy tightening to ensure price stability.
• The Fed could keep interest rates elevated long enough to bring down inflation to 2%. This is likely to continue to build pressure on the US economy, particularly for the manufacturing and housing sectors.
• Any discussion about rate cuts would improve the appeal for the risk-perceived assets and dampen the US Dollar. Economists at Goldman Sachs expect Fed officials to signal a full percentage point of cuts next year but to keep expectations of one more interest rate increase this year to a range of 5.50%-5.75%.
• Worries about an economic slowdown due to higher interest rates for longer linger despite the current economic resilience. Shorter-term US Treasury yields have surpassed the yields offered in longer time frames, a situation that has historically indicated risks of a potential recession.
• As per the CME Group Fedwatch Tool, traders undoubtedly see interest rates remaining steady at 5.25%-5.50% after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. For the rest of the year, traders anticipate almost a 58% chance for the Fed to also keep monetary policy unchanged.
• About the US economic outlook, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said that she doesn’t see any signs that the economy will enter into a downturn as inflation is coming down and the labor market is quite strong.
• However, Yellen warned that a failure by Congress to pass the legislation to keep the government in control could elevate the risk of an economic slowdown.
• Later this week, investors will watch the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI September data to be reported by S&P Global. US factory activity has remained vulnerable due to higher interest rates. Firms are focusing on achieving efficiency by controlling costs in a deteriorating demand environment.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) seems well-supported above the crucial 105.00 level. Investors keep pumping money into the USD Index due to deepening fears of a global slowdown in a high-interest rate environment.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold Moves Higher as Political and Financial Instability is Growing
The gold price rose by almost 0.70% on Friday as disappointing macroeconomic data and social instability in the U.S. brought the dollar down and pushed metals higher.
Gold and silver are rallying on a wall of worry,' said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. On Friday, the U.S. United Auto Workers (UAW) union started a strike at three factories in Detroit, being the largest industrial labor action in decades. In addition, the media write about the possible government shutdown at the end of the month, fuelling political concerns. Moreover, the Consumer Confidence Index published by the University of Michigan came out lower than expected, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won't raise the benchmark interest rate this year. The market is currently pricing in only a 27% chance of a rate hike in November and less than a 40% probability of a rate increase in December.
🆘XAU/USD was rising during the Asian session. Today's economic calendar is relatively light, so gold probably won't fluctuate much. However, traders may change their positions ahead of this week's central banks' decisions. Therefore, XAU/USD may possibly be correct towards 1,916.
🟢'Spot gold may test a resistance zone of 1,933–1,935 USD per ounce, a break above which could lead to a gain into the 1,941–1,943 range,' said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
The gold price rose by almost 0.70% on Friday as disappointing macroeconomic data and social instability in the U.S. brought the dollar down and pushed metals higher.
Gold and silver are rallying on a wall of worry,' said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. On Friday, the U.S. United Auto Workers (UAW) union started a strike at three factories in Detroit, being the largest industrial labor action in decades. In addition, the media write about the possible government shutdown at the end of the month, fuelling political concerns. Moreover, the Consumer Confidence Index published by the University of Michigan came out lower than expected, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won't raise the benchmark interest rate this year. The market is currently pricing in only a 27% chance of a rate hike in November and less than a 40% probability of a rate increase in December.
🆘XAU/USD was rising during the Asian session. Today's economic calendar is relatively light, so gold probably won't fluctuate much. However, traders may change their positions ahead of this week's central banks' decisions. Therefore, XAU/USD may possibly be correct towards 1,916.
🟢'Spot gold may test a resistance zone of 1,933–1,935 USD per ounce, a break above which could lead to a gain into the 1,941–1,943 range,' said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🔘USD/JPY moving closer to 150 will put more pressure on the government to intervene to support the Yen
Will BoJ Governor Ueda push back further against JPY weakness by talking up rate hike risks?
Market attention will now turn to comments from Governor Ueda at this week’s policy meeting to see what message he delivers over the future timing of rate hikes and what level of unease he displays over recent Yen weakness.
If BoJ Governor Ueda steps back from providing a strong signal over the possibility of rate hikes by the turn of the year, it will increase the burden on the Japanese government to support the Yen through intervention like late last year if the USD/JPY jumps back above the 150.00 level and moves to retest last year’s high at 151.95.
Will BoJ Governor Ueda push back further against JPY weakness by talking up rate hike risks?
Market attention will now turn to comments from Governor Ueda at this week’s policy meeting to see what message he delivers over the future timing of rate hikes and what level of unease he displays over recent Yen weakness.
If BoJ Governor Ueda steps back from providing a strong signal over the possibility of rate hikes by the turn of the year, it will increase the burden on the Japanese government to support the Yen through intervention like late last year if the USD/JPY jumps back above the 150.00 level and moves to retest last year’s high at 151.95.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟢XAUUSD: CMP $1907.30
$1900 zone - $1907 zone achieved.
🆘Zone achieved | PRFZ levels:
M1V618 M5VS5 M5V618 M15V50 M30V382 H1V236
$1900 zone - $1907 zone achieved.
🆘Zone achieved | PRFZ levels:
M1V618 M5VS5 M5V618 M15V50 M30V382 H1V236
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘The European Central Bank has hiked interest rates to a record high as policymakers look to address elevated inflation in the eurozone despite signals that the region's economy is weakening.
It is the tenth straight rate increase by the Frankfurt-based bank since it misjudged the speed of price gains early last year. The move brings the ECB's main refinancing operations, the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility up to 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00%, respectively.
"Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long," the ECB said in a statement. "The rate increase today reflects the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission."
Prior to the decision, debate swirled around how officials would adjust borrowing costs to account for stubbornly high price growth and flagging economic activity.
Preliminary readings show that inflation in the eurozone is now more than twice the ECB's 2% target. However, the bank's long-standing monetary tightening campaign, coupled with similar policy moves by central banks across the world and weakness in China, have begun to hit the broader eurozone economy. Manufacturing is suffering, while lending has slumped and services have showed early signs of strain, contributing to concerns that the region may slip into a recession.
Impact XAUUSD +
EURUSD -
It is the tenth straight rate increase by the Frankfurt-based bank since it misjudged the speed of price gains early last year. The move brings the ECB's main refinancing operations, the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility up to 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00%, respectively.
"Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long," the ECB said in a statement. "The rate increase today reflects the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission."
Prior to the decision, debate swirled around how officials would adjust borrowing costs to account for stubbornly high price growth and flagging economic activity.
Preliminary readings show that inflation in the eurozone is now more than twice the ECB's 2% target. However, the bank's long-standing monetary tightening campaign, coupled with similar policy moves by central banks across the world and weakness in China, have begun to hit the broader eurozone economy. Manufacturing is suffering, while lending has slumped and services have showed early signs of strain, contributing to concerns that the region may slip into a recession.
Impact XAUUSD +
EURUSD -
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
⚠️XAUUSD under price trap of $1907 PPZ S1
🆘Important Data:
16:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) 3.75% 3.75%
16:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.50%
16:15 EUR ECB McCaul Speaks
16:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
16:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 4.25% 4.25%
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,695K 1,679K
16:30 USD Core PPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.2% 2.4%
16:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% 0.3%
16:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% 1.0%
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 225K 216K
16:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 229.25K
16:30 USD PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Aug) 2.7%
16:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% 0.3%
16:30 USD PPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.2% 0.8%
16:30 USD PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%
16:30 USD Retail Control (MoM) (Aug) 1.0%
16:30 USD Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 3.17%
16:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% 0.7%
🟢High Volatility expected at 16.30 hours today.
❌Avoid taking big lots / repetitive orders
♾Target Price zone: $1888/1926
🆘Important Data:
16:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) 3.75% 3.75%
16:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.50%
16:15 EUR ECB McCaul Speaks
16:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
16:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 4.25% 4.25%
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,695K 1,679K
16:30 USD Core PPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.2% 2.4%
16:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% 0.3%
16:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% 1.0%
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 225K 216K
16:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 229.25K
16:30 USD PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Aug) 2.7%
16:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% 0.3%
16:30 USD PPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.2% 0.8%
16:30 USD PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%
16:30 USD Retail Control (MoM) (Aug) 1.0%
16:30 USD Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 3.17%
16:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% 0.7%
🟢High Volatility expected at 16.30 hours today.
❌Avoid taking big lots / repetitive orders
♾Target Price zone: $1888/1926
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
⏰Market movers today
The ECB meeting is the main event today, with the rate decision at 14.15 CET followed by Lagarde's press conference at 14.45 CET. We expect a 25bp hike, which will be mirrored 1-to-1 by Danmarks Nationalbank.
On the data front, August inflation data will be released for Sweden. We expect headline CPIF inflation to cool clearly in y/y terms to 4.9% (from 6.4%) and CPIF excluding energy to 7.3% (from 8.0%).
🟢The 60 second overview
We expect the ECB to hike by 25bp at today's meeting. The market pricing is 16bp (up 3bp since yesterday) following the Reuters story on an upward revision to the 2024 inflation forecast in today's staff projections. In our opinion, this is a natural (and expected) consequence of rising energy prices since the latest projection round in June.
✔️The key factor for today's decision will be the projected core inflation path until 2025. We expect the forecast to reflect strong underlying inflation dynamics driven by tight labour market conditions.
Combined with the latest (strong) inflation data, this should justify hiking a final 25bp. We also expect an advancement of the end to full reinvestment process of PEPP currently guided for December 2024 to be on the cards. Regardless of whether the ECB decides to hike or not, we expect Danmarks Nationalbank to follow the rate decision 1-to-1.
Looking ahead, all eyes remain on the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, which is likely to be an interesting one. ECB President Christine Lagarde faces a tough call, as the old continent risks stagnation while inflation remains more than double the central bank’s 2.0% target. A hawkish pause, with Lagarde leaving the door open for more rate hikes, will likely fuel a sharp rally in the EUR/USD pair at the expense of the US Dollar. In such a case, Gold price could capitalize on the US Dollar weakness and extend its rebound toward the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,922.
However, Gold traders will also pay close attention to the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index data for fresh US Dollar valuations.
♾All in all, Gold price braces for another day of volatile trading on the ECB verdict and the US economic data releases.
The ECB meeting is the main event today, with the rate decision at 14.15 CET followed by Lagarde's press conference at 14.45 CET. We expect a 25bp hike, which will be mirrored 1-to-1 by Danmarks Nationalbank.
On the data front, August inflation data will be released for Sweden. We expect headline CPIF inflation to cool clearly in y/y terms to 4.9% (from 6.4%) and CPIF excluding energy to 7.3% (from 8.0%).
🟢The 60 second overview
We expect the ECB to hike by 25bp at today's meeting. The market pricing is 16bp (up 3bp since yesterday) following the Reuters story on an upward revision to the 2024 inflation forecast in today's staff projections. In our opinion, this is a natural (and expected) consequence of rising energy prices since the latest projection round in June.
✔️The key factor for today's decision will be the projected core inflation path until 2025. We expect the forecast to reflect strong underlying inflation dynamics driven by tight labour market conditions.
Combined with the latest (strong) inflation data, this should justify hiking a final 25bp. We also expect an advancement of the end to full reinvestment process of PEPP currently guided for December 2024 to be on the cards. Regardless of whether the ECB decides to hike or not, we expect Danmarks Nationalbank to follow the rate decision 1-to-1.
Looking ahead, all eyes remain on the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, which is likely to be an interesting one. ECB President Christine Lagarde faces a tough call, as the old continent risks stagnation while inflation remains more than double the central bank’s 2.0% target. A hawkish pause, with Lagarde leaving the door open for more rate hikes, will likely fuel a sharp rally in the EUR/USD pair at the expense of the US Dollar. In such a case, Gold price could capitalize on the US Dollar weakness and extend its rebound toward the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,922.
However, Gold traders will also pay close attention to the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index data for fresh US Dollar valuations.
♾All in all, Gold price braces for another day of volatile trading on the ECB verdict and the US economic data releases.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘Current status:
DXY 103.540 (Stable)
US10YT 4.097 (-)
USDJPY 145.100 (500 pips today)
XAUXAG 78.93
US F SPX + NQ + YM +
USDJPY approaching H4A100
XAUUSD approaching H4V0.0
⏰Co-relation in perfect action.
DXY 103.540 (Stable)
US10YT 4.097 (-)
USDJPY 145.100 (500 pips today)
XAUXAG 78.93
US F SPX + NQ + YM +
USDJPY approaching H4A100
XAUUSD approaching H4V0.0
⏰Co-relation in perfect action.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Check Latest Trading Scenarios and Analysis by Piyush Ratnu: How to trade XAUUSD on NFP Day?
Check at: https://bit.ly/PRTrackRecordXAUUSD
Check at: https://bit.ly/PRTrackRecordXAUUSD
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
PRSRLVL zone status:
SRD1 XAUUSD @ above PPZ R1
SRW1 XAUUSD @ above PPZ R2
SRMN XAUUSD @ below PPZ S1
Crucial zones ahead:
R: $1966/1985/2009
C: $1926/1907/1888
USDJPY @H1V236
XAUUSD H1A236 pending
US 10YT 4.114
DXY 103.100
XAUXAG 79.10
⚠️USDJPY 145.90 (17.08 and 22.08 zone)
🔛XAUUSD on 17.08 and 22.08: $1888 zone
After breaching highs: lows in USDJPY are resulting in + XAUUSD, in addition to the bluff by FED and Bond market, traders are worried about the price zones, and increasing debt pressures.
All 3: US F: Ideal SELL entry: PG 50 | Exit NAP
SRD1 XAUUSD @ above PPZ R1
SRW1 XAUUSD @ above PPZ R2
SRMN XAUUSD @ below PPZ S1
Crucial zones ahead:
R: $1966/1985/2009
C: $1926/1907/1888
USDJPY @H1V236
XAUUSD H1A236 pending
US 10YT 4.114
DXY 103.100
XAUXAG 79.10
⚠️USDJPY 145.90 (17.08 and 22.08 zone)
🔛XAUUSD on 17.08 and 22.08: $1888 zone
After breaching highs: lows in USDJPY are resulting in + XAUUSD, in addition to the bluff by FED and Bond market, traders are worried about the price zones, and increasing debt pressures.
All 3: US F: Ideal SELL entry: PG 50 | Exit NAP
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
As alerted yesterday in advance at 18.16 hours, XAUUSD is under the price trap of $1932-1936 price zone since last 12 hours.
🟢Today's trading plan:
I will wait for $1947 or $1926 price targets to enter in short/long direction.
Important Economic date today
16.00: EUR German CPI
16.15: ADP NFP
16.30 GDP
18.00 Pending home sales
🟢Today's trading plan:
I will wait for $1947 or $1926 price targets to enter in short/long direction.
Important Economic date today
16.00: EUR German CPI
16.15: ADP NFP
16.30 GDP
18.00 Pending home sales
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
25.08.2023 | Tracer Vs Actual | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
#forex #XAUUSD #SpotGold #PiyushRatnu #Education #analysis #forextraining #forexcourse
#forex #XAUUSD #SpotGold #PiyushRatnu #Education #analysis #forextraining #forexcourse
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#hiring #PiyushRatnu #forextrader #forexanalyst #salesexecutive #introductorybroker #jobs #jobvacancy
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD Projected BZ:
C 1907 | 1888 | 1866
XAUUSD Projected SZ:
R 1926 | 1947 | 1966
C 1907 | 1888 | 1866
XAUUSD Projected SZ:
R 1926 | 1947 | 1966
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Jerome Powell speech in focus at the Jackson Hole Symposium
Gold price is struggling to extend the recent recovery momentum, as investors prefer to hold the US Dollar heading into the main event risk at the Fed’s annual economic conference at Jackson Hole, Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. A cautious market mood also favors the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, limiting the upside in the Gold price.
Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole event was previously a decisive one, as he delivered a strong message on the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation, suggesting more interest rate hikes. At the 2023 symposium, Jerome Powell is likely to laud the US economic resilience, feeding into the rhetoric of a ‘higher for longer’ narrative. In such a case, markets are likely to read his message as hawkish, triggering a fresh upside in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields at the expense of the Gold price.
Conversely, if Powell emphasizes the Fed’s data-dependent approach for future policy course and expresses concerns over economic growth and credit conditions, it could imply a less hawkish stance and smash the US Dollar across the board while providing the much-needed boost to the Gold price.
Meanwhile, the end-of-the-week flows combined with the pre-US Nonfarm Payrolls positioning could also influence the Gold price action heading into the weekly close.
Gold price is struggling to extend the recent recovery momentum, as investors prefer to hold the US Dollar heading into the main event risk at the Fed’s annual economic conference at Jackson Hole, Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. A cautious market mood also favors the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, limiting the upside in the Gold price.
Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole event was previously a decisive one, as he delivered a strong message on the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation, suggesting more interest rate hikes. At the 2023 symposium, Jerome Powell is likely to laud the US economic resilience, feeding into the rhetoric of a ‘higher for longer’ narrative. In such a case, markets are likely to read his message as hawkish, triggering a fresh upside in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields at the expense of the Gold price.
Conversely, if Powell emphasizes the Fed’s data-dependent approach for future policy course and expresses concerns over economic growth and credit conditions, it could imply a less hawkish stance and smash the US Dollar across the board while providing the much-needed boost to the Gold price.
Meanwhile, the end-of-the-week flows combined with the pre-US Nonfarm Payrolls positioning could also influence the Gold price action heading into the weekly close.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
⚠️Past Track record:
2022: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gold-falls-dollar-holds-ground-with-focus-powells-speech-2022-08-26/
Feed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duUBLlLBcdg
Material: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-policy-symposium-reassessing-constraints-on-the-economy-and-policy/
2021: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-27/powell-says-fed-could-begin-tapering-bond-purchases-this-year
Feed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIzCWQKmnTg
Material: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/macroeconomic-policy-in-an-uneven-economy/
2020:
Feed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7xw7SPIDqM
Material: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/navigating-decade-ahead-implications-monetary-policy/
Pre-COVID:
2019: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/challenges-for-monetary-policy/
2022: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gold-falls-dollar-holds-ground-with-focus-powells-speech-2022-08-26/
Feed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duUBLlLBcdg
Material: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-policy-symposium-reassessing-constraints-on-the-economy-and-policy/
2021: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-27/powell-says-fed-could-begin-tapering-bond-purchases-this-year
Feed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIzCWQKmnTg
Material: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/macroeconomic-policy-in-an-uneven-economy/
2020:
Feed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7xw7SPIDqM
Material: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/navigating-decade-ahead-implications-monetary-policy/
Pre-COVID:
2019: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/challenges-for-monetary-policy/
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD: $1919-1926 or $1888/1880 today?
Gold price is sustaining the recovery from five-month lows, looking to recapture the $1,900 mark early Wednesday. A minor pullback in the United States Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields is helping Gold price find some support. All eyes now remain on the global preliminary PMI reports for fresh trading impetus in Gold price.
Investors also stay unnerved ahead of the key Manufacturing and Services PMI reports from the Euro area and the US due later in the day. The S&P Global US PMI is likely to show the factory sector remained in contraction this month. The global PMI data will help gauge the risks of a recession worldwide while driving the broader market sentiment. Worsening business conditions globally are likely to intensify risk-aversion and boost the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand, motivating the Greenback to resume the uptrend at the expense of Gold price.
Further, earnings results from the US chipmaker due late Wednesday are likely to have a significant impact on risk sentiment. Gold traders also remain wary of the US banking jitters, especially after S&P joined Moody's to downgrade multiple regional US banks. In other news, Swiss Gold exports fell 2% in July from June, keeping the Gold price rebound in check.
Gold price managed to settle Tuesday above the descending trendline resistance, then at $1,891, as it moved away from multi-month troughs. Gold buyers now need acceptance above the $1,900 round figure to take on the upward-sloping 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,909.
A sustained move above the 200 DMA barrier will open doors for a test of the $1,920 round figure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching higher but stays below the 50 level, limiting the upside attempts in Gold price.
On the downside, the immediate support is seen at the abovementioned descending trendline resistance-turned-support, now at $1,885, below which a test of the $1,870 static support will be on the cards.
Gold price is sustaining the recovery from five-month lows, looking to recapture the $1,900 mark early Wednesday. A minor pullback in the United States Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields is helping Gold price find some support. All eyes now remain on the global preliminary PMI reports for fresh trading impetus in Gold price.
Investors also stay unnerved ahead of the key Manufacturing and Services PMI reports from the Euro area and the US due later in the day. The S&P Global US PMI is likely to show the factory sector remained in contraction this month. The global PMI data will help gauge the risks of a recession worldwide while driving the broader market sentiment. Worsening business conditions globally are likely to intensify risk-aversion and boost the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand, motivating the Greenback to resume the uptrend at the expense of Gold price.
Further, earnings results from the US chipmaker due late Wednesday are likely to have a significant impact on risk sentiment. Gold traders also remain wary of the US banking jitters, especially after S&P joined Moody's to downgrade multiple regional US banks. In other news, Swiss Gold exports fell 2% in July from June, keeping the Gold price rebound in check.
Gold price managed to settle Tuesday above the descending trendline resistance, then at $1,891, as it moved away from multi-month troughs. Gold buyers now need acceptance above the $1,900 round figure to take on the upward-sloping 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,909.
A sustained move above the 200 DMA barrier will open doors for a test of the $1,920 round figure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching higher but stays below the 50 level, limiting the upside attempts in Gold price.
On the downside, the immediate support is seen at the abovementioned descending trendline resistance-turned-support, now at $1,885, below which a test of the $1,870 static support will be on the cards.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
US Dollar keeps rallying, Gold price at the losing end
Gold price is coming up for some air after the relentless three-day decline, fuelled by a broadly firmer US Dollar amid an increased flight to safety and economic resilience showcased by the recent US economic statistics.
The Greenback built onto its upsurge on Wednesday after the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields climbed to fresh 10-month highs just above 4.30% on the hawkish US Federal Reserve Minutes of the July meeting. The Fed Minutes revealed that "most" policymakers continued to pledge to tame inflation while seeing ‘upside risks’ to inflation, possibly suggesting more rate hikes to come from the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, lingering Chinese economic concerns combined with the revival of the hawkish Fed expectations sent risk tumbling, infusing safe-haven flows into the US Dollar. Upbeat US housing data also added to the positive mood around the US Dollar, exacerbating the pain in the non-interest-bearing Gold price. Single-family homebuilding in the United States rose 6.7% while Building Permits ticked up 0.1% to an annualized pace of 1.44 million units.
Later in the day, the US weekly Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey will be eyed to confirm a resilient US economy, which could trigger a fresh leg higher in the US Dollar. The Greenback is likely to remain in a win-win situation even if risk sentiment takes a further knock.
Crucial Zones projected since 04.08.2023:
C: $1926/1907/1888/1866/1836/1818
R: $ 1947/1966/1985 (RT observed)/2009/2048
Read detailed analysis dated 04.08.2023 at:
https://bit.ly/PRTrackRecordXAUUSD
Gold price is coming up for some air after the relentless three-day decline, fuelled by a broadly firmer US Dollar amid an increased flight to safety and economic resilience showcased by the recent US economic statistics.
The Greenback built onto its upsurge on Wednesday after the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields climbed to fresh 10-month highs just above 4.30% on the hawkish US Federal Reserve Minutes of the July meeting. The Fed Minutes revealed that "most" policymakers continued to pledge to tame inflation while seeing ‘upside risks’ to inflation, possibly suggesting more rate hikes to come from the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, lingering Chinese economic concerns combined with the revival of the hawkish Fed expectations sent risk tumbling, infusing safe-haven flows into the US Dollar. Upbeat US housing data also added to the positive mood around the US Dollar, exacerbating the pain in the non-interest-bearing Gold price. Single-family homebuilding in the United States rose 6.7% while Building Permits ticked up 0.1% to an annualized pace of 1.44 million units.
Later in the day, the US weekly Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey will be eyed to confirm a resilient US economy, which could trigger a fresh leg higher in the US Dollar. The Greenback is likely to remain in a win-win situation even if risk sentiment takes a further knock.
Crucial Zones projected since 04.08.2023:
C: $1926/1907/1888/1866/1836/1818
R: $ 1947/1966/1985 (RT observed)/2009/2048
Read detailed analysis dated 04.08.2023 at:
https://bit.ly/PRTrackRecordXAUUSD
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD Projected BZ:
C 1888 | 1866 | 1847
XAUUSD Projected SZ:
R 1907 | 1926 | 1947
C 1888 | 1866 | 1847
XAUUSD Projected SZ:
R 1907 | 1926 | 1947
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
KEY POINTS
• Gold price is seen consolidating its recent decline to the lowest level since early June.
• Bets for one more rate hike by Federal Reserve continue to cap the non-yielding metal.
• China's economic woes and geopolitical tensions limit further losses for the XAU/USD.
• Traders now look forward to the US Retail Sales report for some meaningful impetus.
• last week's dismal Chinese trade data, which indicated that imports and exports fell much faster than expected in July as weaker demand threatens recovery prospects in the world's second-largest economy. Moreover, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered its first decline since February 2021 and the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell for a 10th consecutive month in July, suggesting that China's post-pandemic recovery has slowed after a brisk start in the first quarter. Even a surprise rate cut by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) does little to ease market concerns, allowing the Gold price to defend the $1,900 round figure, at least for the time being.
• The upside, however, remains capped in the wake of growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. It is worth recalling that the markets are still pricing in the possibility of one more 25 basis points (bps) lift-off by the end of this year, which remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot to a nine-month high on Monday. This, in turn, assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand tall just below its highest level in more than two-month set the previous day and should continue to keep a lid on any meaningful recovery for the non-yielding Gold price.
• Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the monthly Retail Sales figures from the United States (US), due later during the early North American session. Tuesday's US economic docket also features the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which, along with the US bond yields will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the Gold price. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment might contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the safe-haven XAU/USD.
• Gold price is seen consolidating its recent decline to the lowest level since early June.
• Bets for one more rate hike by Federal Reserve continue to cap the non-yielding metal.
• China's economic woes and geopolitical tensions limit further losses for the XAU/USD.
• Traders now look forward to the US Retail Sales report for some meaningful impetus.
• last week's dismal Chinese trade data, which indicated that imports and exports fell much faster than expected in July as weaker demand threatens recovery prospects in the world's second-largest economy. Moreover, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered its first decline since February 2021 and the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell for a 10th consecutive month in July, suggesting that China's post-pandemic recovery has slowed after a brisk start in the first quarter. Even a surprise rate cut by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) does little to ease market concerns, allowing the Gold price to defend the $1,900 round figure, at least for the time being.
• The upside, however, remains capped in the wake of growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. It is worth recalling that the markets are still pricing in the possibility of one more 25 basis points (bps) lift-off by the end of this year, which remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot to a nine-month high on Monday. This, in turn, assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand tall just below its highest level in more than two-month set the previous day and should continue to keep a lid on any meaningful recovery for the non-yielding Gold price.
• Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the monthly Retail Sales figures from the United States (US), due later during the early North American session. Tuesday's US economic docket also features the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which, along with the US bond yields will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the Gold price. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment might contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the safe-haven XAU/USD.