[Branch closed!] EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 4) - page 319

 

Here's the news from the day before yesterday:

Germany is not happy again

Leaders of Germany's coalition government have criticised the option of a voluntary refinancing of Greek debt agreed by Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. They believe the plan is a far cry from the full-scale debt restructuring that Berlin supports, the German publication Der Spiegel reported on Saturday.

And that was on Friday:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced after today's meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel that a "breakthrough" had been made in talks to resolve the Greek financial crisis: the leaders of the eurozone's two leading economies had reached agreement on a new plan to help the debt-burdened country.

The market reacted optimistically to the news, with the single currency strengthening against all of its major competitors.

 




What do you think?

 
The single currency rebounded on Monday on expectations of progress on a solution to Greece's problems, but the euro remains vulnerable to any reports from Greece and comments from European officials.
EU finance ministers began meeting on Sunday to decide on an E12bn emergency tranche for Greece. They are also due to discuss proposals for a second E120bn bailout package for Greece.

"The euro will continue to depend on Greece. If the news comes out badly...we could see EUR/CHF fall below 1.1950 (a record low)," BNP Paribas analysts believe.

Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the European currency has already reached this year's high against the U.S. dollar at 1.4944.

Experts believe that the EUR/USD pair will steadily decline over the next 12 months. In their view, the euro will fall to 1.3500 by the end of the third quarter, to 1.3000 by the end of the year and to 1.27 in a year.

Nordea Bank's currency strategists believe the single currency is under pressure due to uncertainty about Greece's future and fears of a global economic slowdown. In their view, by the end of the week the EUR/USD could fall to $1.40.

Westpac analysts advise to sell the euro if the rate rises above $1.43. Experts doubt that the Greek politicians will be able to carry out austerity measures that the EU and the IMF demand from them.

Analysts at Citigroup believe that if the European Union and the International Monetary Fund agree to give Greece another tranche of credit, which should include 8.7 billion euros ($12.4 billion) from the EU and 3.3 billion euros from the IMF in July, the recovery will still be small and short-lived.

 

And finally, after Margarita's post, I'm posting the plan for the months:


 

Man, I smell a big and prolonged fall.

2008 - 3600 pips (07-11 months)

2009-10's - 3200 points (12.09-06.10)

And now there will be something similar, which has already started.

 

Plan for the day )))

 
Evgen157:

Plan for the day ))))

Unless it's a wolf, of course ;-)

First bounce from the neck was, if it doesn't break the second time -- going up...

While I'm on the fence again, I've closed everything up...

 

The market has come to a standstill, there's going to be movement...

Margaret, what's everybody waiting for? What's not on the calendar?

 
DragonSL:

The market has come to a standstill, there's going to be movement...

Margaret, what's everybody waiting for? What's not on the calendar?

Just as on Friday, so today, everyone is afraid to buy euros... Waiting for any news on the solution to the Greek budget deficit...
 
there is a second side to the coin; the price draws a clue to its own for those "in the know"