Titan's PipWorld - page 9
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Hi et_phonehome_2
Don't miss understand this system of mine has been doing well for one full year (not counting backtesting nor the forward testing in a real acct for the last 90 days as of Dec 31st, 2007). During the course of that one year I just watched the method day after day, because there is was no way I would trade it. The DD was just too large, so I spent most of the last year or so attempting to reduce the DD, but no matter what I did I couldn't adjust the system without making drastic changes which inturn would cause the system to fail.
I can completely understand how most traders would see this as a high risk trading method but I understand the inner-workings of it and the DD is a normal part of the method because the method tracks the Tru-Value of a given currency pair, regardless of the imbalances that occur which causes the DD.
Yes, the traditional risk/rewards ratio we are told/taught are no where near what I have and will scare most traders (I would think). Actually, to the best of my knowledge my method is like Freedom Rocks without the hedging. Where in my case you get to keep not only the Interest Earned but all the pip-gains.
Tell me what you think in 90 days from now or 180 days from now. I will keep everyone posted and up to date on everything.
Titan
Institutional Bank Style Trading: Balance Point Trading is how the banking institutions and large retail investors make their money. This is how we as well are going to make ours. Welcome to Titan's PipWorld...
Date: Thur, Jan 3rd 2008
Time: 5:15pm New York Time
Comments: Yes, GbpJpy has taken a dive to levels I myself did not want to see but hey, this is part of the forex-game of doing biz-ness. I would like to address the issue of DD and hedging it via correlation trading. First, I would like to say, I didn't mean to come off as someone who is lost and still trying to find his way within his own trading method. This is not the case, I'm always looking to reduce DD and that will never stop. In fact I'm looking into a possible correlation trade between Eur/Aud and GbpJpy to hedge but even if I do so I can tell this won't stop the need of adding to what some traders would call a losing position. Anyway, so not to create the impression I'm clueless about my own method I will keep thoughts of hedging against DD to a small roar...lol
Here's a snap shot of my current positions. Didn't want you to think I'm afraid or ashame of seeing DD of this size because I'm not. The method works, until it doesn't works and when or if that becomes the case I will deal with it in a manner that's professional. And thanks guys for viewing my journal.
To enlarge pic once loaded just click on image.
Titan
In a previous post I had mention that I read a few articles (of which now I wish I had saved from 2yrs ago) that stated how banks and large retail investors used stop-losses that were between 300 and 750 pips. I myself would had found that hard to believe if I had not seen a money manager of a large brokerage firm post a lost on a particular trade of -600 pips and on one trade -1000 pips.
If you have read any articles on Warren Buffet or Bill Gates trading activities you will see that when the market moves against them its huge and I mean, HUGE. Most traders would say, they have the deep pockets to handle such a move, but I beg to differ. I think the reason they allow the market to move in such a fashion against their own accts is due to value-investing.
They have a trading method showing them what they believe to be the actual value of a given currency and allow the imbalances to work itself out, even if the market moves against them 300 or 1000 plus pips. These large retail investors are not stupid...
Titan
p.s. For the latest update please read post #83.
Date: Thur, Jan 3rd 2008
Time: 11:02pm New York Time
Outlook for GbpJpy and the Yen family...
To enlarge pic once loaded just click on image.
Titan
p.s. It does look like trouble is coming for Carry Trades, imo. Also for the latest update on my trades plase read post #83.
Institutional Bank Style Trading: Balance Point Trading is how the banking institutions and large retail investors make their money. This is how we as well are going to make ours. Welcome to Titan's PipWorld...
Date: Fri, Jan 4th 2008
Time: 12:15pm New York Time
Comments: I went ahead and took out a hedge to help offset some of the losses on GbpJpy at 214.02 (view snap shot below). It appears GbpJpy will attempt 212.00 next week then may be we will get our bounce up.
To enlarge pic once loaded just click image.
Titan
Institutional Bank Style Trading: Balance Point Trading is how the banking institutions and large retail investors make their money. This is how we as well are going to make ours. Welcome to Titan's PipWorld...
Update: Fri, Jan 4th 2008
Time: 5:55pm New York Time
Week 2 Performance:
Starting Balance: 25k Demo-Acct
Current Balance: 25,102.54
Current Equity: 17,791.11
Gain: +102 pips
Loss: 0 pips
Number of trades: 1
Number of wins: 1
Number of losses: 0
Consective wins:1
Consective losses:0
Interest Earned:$0.54
COC:0
Largest Peak to Valley DrawDown: -1328 pips
Comments: The hedge trade I have in place at 214.02 will help to offset drawdown (DD). I will continue to hedge at one full lot verses one mini lot for the longer term trades. This will not change the fact that all longer term trades will be based upon Buy-Signals but the hedged trades can be either or.
To enlarge pic once loaded just click on image.
Titan
p.s. I have over traded the acct, too many open buy-signals. I will limit all open buy-signals to 5/7 at any one given time which does not include having 1/2 hedge trades. The hedged trades are short term positions.
Date: Sun, Jan 06th 2008
Time:1:00pm New York Time
I managed to develope a new trading method which acts as a confirmation system to my longer term trades. There will still be some drawdowns but no where near what has been seen. Drawdown should be reduced from this point forward to a max of 500 to 1000 pips with a hard stop-loss of 1200 to 1500 pips. *Provided this confirmation system works in real time as backtesting has shown.
Titan
Institutional Bank Style Trading: Balance Point Trading is how the banking institutions and large retail investors make their money. This is how we as well are going to make ours. Welcome to Titan's PipWorld...
Date: Mon, Jan 07th 2008
Time: 3:15am New York Time
Today's Performance:
Starting Balance: 25k Demo-Acct
Current Balance: 25,091.55
Current Equity: 19,090.31
Gain: +107 pips
Loss: -53 pips
Number of trades: 3
Number of wins: 2
Number of losses: 1
Consective wins:0
Consective losses:0
Interest Earned:$-27.83
COC:0
Largest Gain on a single trade:+102 pips
Largest Loss on a single trade:-53 pips
Largest Peak to Valley DrawDown: -1328 pips
Today's Trades:
Closed Out: GbpJpy 214.02 at 214.55: -53 pips
Closed Out: EurAud 1.6893 at 1.6835: +58 pips
Comments: Was not expecting GbpJpy to open Sunday up from Friday's close, so I closed out my hedge trade and took out a EurAud short. Waiting for a new hedge signal to trade.
To enlarge pic once loaded just click on image.
Titan
Jan 07 2008
The Dow and EUR/JPY are at "Make or Break" points right now!
Right now the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Euro vs. the Japanese yen (EUR/JPY) are at crucial levels.
click the above link for the full story...
Titan
p.s. Personally I believe that the DJIA and the Carry Trades will be okay for at least the first quarter of 2008, its the second, third and fourth quarter that's sending up warning signs.
Institutional Bank Style Trading: Balance Point Trading is how the banking institutions and large retail investors make their money. This is how we as well are going to make ours. Welcome to Titan's PipWorld...
Date: Mon, Jan 7th 2008
Time: 6:00pm New York Time
Outlook: My outlook for GbpJpy has not changed, I'm expecting a nice move upward over the next few weeks and as for UsdJpy I'm still expecting to see the 115.00 level and if the correlation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stays intact then look for it to go up as well.
Titan
p.s. Long live the Carry-Trades...