Critique my Holy Grail idea - page 11
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My opinion..
Martingale strategies are not trading, they are gambling!
as soon as you "double up" you are violating every moneymanagement rule in the book. I would advise against it HEAVILY!
one losing streak, and you are done.. kaput!
hope this helps..Well what can I say? Other than yes I agree. I am well aware of the various "rules" in the "book" after a few trips around the block. Yes, I would advise new traders against martingale. Ask yourself, "Is every rule really going to help me, or bind me up?" Depends on your style, your own hit rate, etc...I am right 80-85% of the time, I can safely double.
thank you for reading, come on back to check out my journal periodically
Wow！This is the greatest system I have even seen before! Because I dont believe a EA can make money on 1M TF! I think use the H1 or aboveTF to trade is the only profitable way!
Thank you. This is all discreationary/semi-mechanical. EA's require you to understand programming, in addition to how the market works.
Patterns and setups exist on all time frames. Yes I do use 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h to find setups too and/or the overall picture.
I would advise new traders against martingale.
i would say not only new traders, EVERY trader should be advised against it.
i would say not only new traders, EVERY trader should be advised against it.
I'm really good at polishing a turd. I ain't saying this is not a turd, because it is, but for me it works (and yes, it pays my bills).
You can advise, theorize, and back test anything. Still 95% will fail regardless of how safe they play.
If you follow the herd ALL the time, expect to be crushed. There are times when you can be greatly rewarded by not always following traditional rules in the book of trading. Go read Market Wizards. Then tell me if every single trader in the book followed "da rules"....fat freakin chance. With every big reward comes a big risk (in general, martingale or no martingale, big risk=big reward)
Yes markets have changed since some of those guys started. Futures are a different market, but it's all patterns. They still need to be right when they have 100% of their trading account (also leveraged with grandma's money, in one case of ....was it Richard Dennis?? Feel free to correct me)...
And yes many of those guys blew accounts. What made it worth it was their skill and a willingness to come back to fight.
Do your research. These pros in market wizards didn't get there using 1:1 RR and hard stop loss orders or limiting maximum size to only 1% of their account....these guys have more money than anyone on these forums, which is one way we gauge success in life and trading (but not the only way).
All I'm saying is, there's no such thing as a bad idea just because 95% of traders are not using it. It's brainwash to rule out an idea just on the fact that some people have failed using that method. I compare it to picking up women in the bars or other places: some women will not like you and reject you, others will will melt using the same "method" or "lines" ...and I am serious, quite often I use a canned remark, statement, just to grab their attention. I can get a number about 30-50% of the time, and 10% of the time it continues further into dates and eventually the good stuff
Plain pickup lines are a BAD idea generally (ALMOST everyone agrees its CHEESY!), but does it mean they will always fail 100% of the time no matter what? No! I know women that LOVE pickup lines!
I do not use martingale.....surprise surprise!But I do use flexible position sizing. Martingale from what I was doing, would only make me 1-5% a month, since I was doing it fairly safely. But for a small account this isn't a huge accomplishment, and it's a waste of my time.
Since last week I am up 33%. Every dollar I make gets taken out and I start at the same level each month, so I am up 70-100% on the high risk account (again, this is money I CAN part with and still survive).
Every 100-200 pips of profit I double my account.
This is just kind of a journal at this point. I can post here when E/U is completely range bound like it is right now!!!
Safe Trades boys and girls
Happy 4th of July to US traders!
(whiskey was flowing freely all weekend...time to get back to work now!)
atleast one good trade missed
this one got away, as well as a few other good moves on the smaller time frame of my system, I won't bother posting them all (I took 4 days off after a big gaining trade...a smart decision to prevent losing it).
Oh shucks...
Excellent start to my week.
+15% in one account
+2% in the other account
Positive vibes flowing!!!!!
Check out chart of the play...
......[currently LONG at 1.2590, bailed my short from 1.2610 for partial profit]
(picture below is the long which I earned 15% on) "simple squeeze" as I call it
Done trading this week. +5% and a tiny 1% gain on the other account.
I would be trading all the way into thursday, but I also have a life with other things going on ^.^ (thank god)...
PS: I missed that epic long this week...was asleep, but I did hit the short side this week, my only regret was not making more $$%%.
it sounds like he counter - trendwhen the market reach its highly bullish or bearish orgasmic price
it sounds like he counter - trendwhen the market reach its highly bullish or bearish orgasmic price
Not really, no...lol...but I do like your choice of words there! I will have to use that phrase, "orgasmic price" next time. Actually I wish I could counter-trade better, but that requires precise timing and knowing when the move will be exhausted...I'm more of a momentum/trend follower.
The last signal I got was from tuesday to friday in the long direction. Before that signal was sunday to tuesday shorting.
My "system" is only giving me a suggestion on which direction market will go, but it's not telling me 100% where it will start and stop exactly on a dime, hence why it is important to scale out of a position at times. And not every signal is valid, some are false breaks. I would guess the success rate is 70%+.
What I'm doing...in a nutshell is...drawing out a weekly level which I consider significant, and due to reversion to the mean price will cross this level, giving me a signal (I also use a monthly level and daily level). And since markets tend to get psychotic, the pops and breakdowns turn into snow balling trends, in which the farther and harder it moves away from my level, the better. The longer I can hold my winning trades, the more money I can potentially make.
I taught a fellow trader how I am trading. He was very confused on WHY e/u made a significant up move this week...he thought, "shouldn't it go down?" and my reply is that it really REALLY doesn't matter which way it goes or WHY. I was able to point out technical levels which were broken and it seems like most traders don't even have a basic grasp of the basics.
It would be highly un-realistic if I never reported any loss...
-15% at this time, however the loss was much steeper, until I caught the EU long last night
still riding half of the trade, target=1.3020'ish.
If target hits, I should be sitting in an even better position than I am now.
And no, the loss isn't because of martingale...actually I would have probably done better using martingale. Instead I was doing some of the riskier things like going all-in etc...The risk is big, and so can the payoff at times (I'm trying to double up every month for 6-12 months...)
I'm making some minor changes to my system, to better protect me from last night's chop fest (I should have known better lol).
I consider this a pretty good day actually...*phew* I can breath now.