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AceTraderFx Oct 9: Intra-Day News and Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Oct 2014
USD/JPY - ......comments by BOJ GOV Kuroda who is attending World Bank & G20 n is speaking at The Economic Club of NY said QQE has been producing intended effects:
-virtuous cycle of spending has been operating steadily due to qqe
-japan's economy has been on path suggesting its 2 percent price stability target will be achieved as expected
-japan's economy expected to continue its recovery, weathering the temporary slowdown in economic growth due to the consumption tax hike
-japan's economy has been on path suggesting its 2 percent price stability target will be achieved as expected
-japan's economy is expected to continue its recovery, weathering the temporary slowdown in economic growth due to the consumption tax hike
-there is almost no slack in japan's labor market, spare capacity in firms and labor market is zero
-output gap and inflation expectations are expected to continue improving
-we need to raise inflation rates and inflation expectations further toward 2 percent and thus we are only halfway there
-boj will make adjustments without hesitation if outlook changes due to manifestation of risk factors
- boj's commitment is "result oriented," we will continue with qqe to achieve price target and make adjustments if necessary
-japan's potential growth rate is estimated to be around 0.5 percent
-many options are available to ramp up easing if needed
Thursdaywill see the release of Japan machinery orders, Australia employment, unemployment, consumer confidence, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, France imports, exports, trade balance, UK BoE rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, wholesale sales, wholesale inventories and Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Oct 9: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Oct 201400:44GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
0.9545
55 HR EMA
0.9571
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
35
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
0.9624 - Tue's high
0.9601 - Y'day's high
0.9555 - Tue's low (now res)
Support
0.9504 - Intra-day low
0.9489 - Last Mon's low
0.9433 - Sep 17 high (now sup)
. USD/CHF - 0.9527... Despite y'day's intra-day swings in Asian & European sessions inside a 0.9556-0.9601 range following previous day's decline to 0.9555, the pair tumbled after release of dovish Fed minutes, price fell to 0.9510 due to dlr's broad-based weakness n then hit an intra-day low of 0.9504 in Asia.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's break of 0.9555 suggests further choppy trading below Mon's fresh 1-year peak at 0.9690 wud continue with downside bias n further weakness to 0.9496 is now envisaged, this is the natural 50% r of intermediate rise fm 0.9301 to 0.9690, a daily close below there wud bring stronger correction twd 0.9436 n possibly twd 0.9357, being 38.2% n 50% r respectively of 0.9024-0.8960. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on recovery in anticipation of further decline is favoured as only abv 0.9601 (y'day's top) wud signal 1st leg of correction is over, however, reckon 0.9630/40 wud cap upside n yield another leg of decline next week.
. Today, we've exited previous short position after intra-day recovery fm 0.9504 (Australia) n wud sell again on minor recovery as 0.9555 (prev. sup, now res) wud cap present rebound n yield decline to 0.9470/75.
AceTraderFx Oct 10: Intra-Day News and Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Oct 2014 02:27GMT
USD/JPY - .... Despite staging a rebound from Thursday's 3-week low of 107.53 to 108.18 initially in NY morning session after release of upbeat U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly claims dropped 1,000 to nearly its lowest level b4 the 07'-09' recession), however, sell off in U.S. stocks (S&P & the Dow fell 2.1% & 1.9% respectively) led to renewed risk-aversion buying of yen n knocked dlr back down to 107.72.
The pair traded narrowly in Aust. before falling to 107.65 at Asian open as the Nikkei open lower following o/n sell off in the N225 futures.
Although Nikkie is currently down 152 points, it is trading above intra-day 15259 low, therefore, as dlr/yen has been tracking the Nikkei index closely these days, further consolidation above 107.53 is therefore envisaged.
Offers are tipped at 108.00 and more at 108.15/20 with stops above there. Initial bids are noted at 107.65-60 with stops reported below 107.50, then 107.40, suggesting selling dlr on intra-day recovery is still favoured.
Friday will see the release of Japan BoJ minutes, consumer confidence, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK trade balance, Canada employment, unemployment, U.S. export price index and import price index.
AceTraderFx Oct 10: Intra-Day News and Views(EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Oct 2014 04:55GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Whilst ECB President Draghi continues to call for more stimulus to boost recovery in the EZ, ECB Governing Council member, Reuters reported Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said Germany will keep warning about the dangers of short-term fiscal stimulus at talks on the global economy in Washington although risks to growth are on the downside.
Weidmann said he expected growth in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, to come in below levels expected earlier this year, but maintained its fundamentals were sound.
Pressure is mounting for Germany to use its healthy budget to boost public spending n spur growth in Europe n Weidmann said he expected discussion of stimulus on Friday, when G20 officials meet on the sidelines of World Bank n IMF meetings.
He told reporters "(The) position is clear, in order to create sustainable growth there's little use in setting off an economic flash fire, particularly against a backdrop of historically high debt." Sound budget policy was an important condition for creating an environment favorable to investment n jobs, he said.
Growth in the euro area as a whole would be restrained going forward n downside risks prevailed at a global level, especially fm geopolitical factors, Weidmann added.
AceTraderFx Oct 10: Intra-Day News and Views(EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Oct 2014 08:00GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Italy's senior govt official says 'not worried about possibility of Italy's budget plan being rejected by EU.'
MNI, 'ECB's Nowotny says would not rule out QE "perpetually".'
MNI, ECB's Hansson says 'premature to put further monetary policy measures on the table already; question of whether to buy government bonds is for the future.'
Although euro weakened shortly after European open due to renewed broad-based strength in greenback n briefly fell below support in Australia at 1.2680 to 1.2671, price staged a recovery to 1.2686 after his comments. Offers are noted at 1.2690-00 n around 1.2710/15 with mixture of offers n stops emerging abv 1.2730. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.2660-50 n more below with stops emerging just below 1.2630.
German EcoMin said 'outlook for exports remains "very restrained" in coming months; robust job market, rising incomes and stable prices mean private consumption will remain positive factor.'
AceTraderFx Oct 10: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Oct 2014 23:55GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
107.89
55 HR EMA
108.10
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
46
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
109.23 - Tue's Asian high
108.75 - Wed's NY high
108.32 - Y'day's Asian high
Support
107.53 - Y'day's low
107.40 - 12 Sep high, now sup
106.81 - 16 Sep low
. USD/JPY - 107.84 ... Although dlr came under renewed selling pressure at Tokyo open on Thur n ratcheted lower below previous day's low at 107.76 to a 3-week trough of 107.53 ahead of NY open due to renewed weakness in the Nikkei future, dlr's broad-based rally in NY later lifted price to 108.18.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, yesterday's weakness after penetrating Wed's low at 107.76 to 107.53 suggests as long as 108.75 res (Wed's high) holds, decline fm Oct's fresh 6-year peak of 110.09 to retrace MT uptrend wud resume n extend initial weakness to 107.40/39 (Sep 12 high n 50% r of 104.69-110.09 respectively) after consolidation, however, 'bullish converging signals' on hourly oscillators shud prevent steep fall n price shud hold well abv previous daily sup at 106.81 (Sep 16 low) n yield a much-needed rebound early next week.
. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day recovery in anticipation of further fall is still favoured n one may turn long on dips twd 107.00 for subsequent rebound. On the upside, only abv 108.75 confirms 1st leg of correction is over n risks stronger gain twd chart obj. at 109.23.
AceTraderFx Oct 13: Intra-Day News and Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Oct 2014 00:53GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Dlr opened lower in NZ on Monday as decline in global stocks triggered continued broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion.
Price easily penetrated last week's 107.53 low in NZ n hit an intra-day low of 107.26 in Australia, despite a minor recovery ahead of Asian open, the 400 plus points sell off in the Nikkei futures (financial markets in Japan are closed for Health-Sports Day holiday) prompted another round of yen buying, the pair weakened to a near 1-month bottom of 107.18 shortly after the open.
Today's decline was partly attributable to usd's weakness vs other major European currencies as dovish comments by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Sat who said weaker-than-expected global growth could prompt the Fed to slow the pace of eventual interest-rate increases.
Offers are tipped at 107.50/60 n more above with some stops reported at 108.00.
On the downside, some bids are noted at 107.10-00 and more below with some fairly large stops rumoured below 106.80, suggesting selling the pair on recovery is the way to go as initial weakness in Asian equities suggests intra-day risk-aversion buying of yen should continue.
This week's economic events will see the release of China's export, import and trade balanceon Monday while Japan, Canada and U.S. will be closed for holiday.
U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan's domestic CGPI, Australia's NAB business conditions, BOJ outlook report, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment, eurozone industrial production, U.S. Redbook on Tuesday.
China's CPI and PPI, Japan's industrial production, Germany's final CPI and HICP, U.K. ILO unemployment rate and claimant count unemployment change, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing, core PPI final demand, business inventories and Fed's Beige book on Wednesday.
New Zealand's manufacturing PMI, consumer inflation expectation, eurozone trade balance and CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, industrial and manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index, Philly Fed business index, Net L-T flows and overall capital flowson Thursday.
Japan's Tankan, Germany's whole price index, eurozone GDP, U.S. building permits and housing starts, Canada's CPI and preliminary U.S. University of Michigan sentimenton Friday.
AceTraderFx Oct 13: Intra-Day News and Views(EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Oct 2014
EUR/USD - ...... Euro jumps in early Asian trading on usd's broad-based weakness despite 'bearish' comments from ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny who said the euro is very likely to keep weakening against other major currencies.
Source from WSJ where in an interview on the sidelines of IMF meetings, Nowotny was quoted as saying "due to the different tendencies in interest rate policies there is a great likelihood that this leads to a further depreciation of the euro."
Traders reported fairly active buying of euro in NZ/Australian morning, price rose to 1.2648 and renewed buying emerged at Asian open, tripping stops above 1.2650, euro climbed to intra-day high of 1.2678/79.
Looks like Fri's low at 1.2605 (NY) would continue to hold until European morning and with most financial markets in U.S. & Canada closed for a holiday, range trading is likely to take place after last week's wild swings.
Bids have been raised to 1.2650-40 and more below with stops reported below 1.2600. Offers are noted at 1.2690/00 and more above with stops reported above 1.2720.
AceTraderFx Oct 13: Intra-Day News and Views(USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Oct 2014
USD/JPY- ..... Dlr pares initial broad-based losses in Asian morning and has rebounded from intra-day Asian near 1-week low of 107.06 to 107.48 in early European trading as recovery in the Nikkei futures (currently up by 65 points after early 400+ points sell off in Asia) has triggered yen-selling.
As mentioned earlier, offers are tipped at 107.50/60 may check present rebound, more selling interest is noted at 107.70/80 and some bids (profit-taking) is reported at 107.20-00 region, suggesting range trading is in store in European morning.
Current active trading may quieten down in post-European lunch session as markets in U.S. & Canada are closed for holiday today.
AceTraderFx Oct 13: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
WEEKLY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 13 Oct 2014 00:19GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.6078
55 HR EMA
1.6155
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Turn up
13 HR RSI
55
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6151 - Last Thur's Asian low (now res)
1.6136 - Last Fri's high
1.6104 - last Thur's low
Support
1.6009 - Last Fri's low
1.5960 - Last Mon's European low
1.5943 - Last Mon's 11-month low
. GBP/USD - 1.6091 ... Although cable opened lower to an 11-month bottom of 1.5943 in NZ last Mon, price swiftly rallied on broad-based long liquidation in the greenback. The pound continued to ratchet higher to as high as 1.6227 on Thur b4 tumbling partly on cross-selling in sterling to 1.6009 in NY Fri.
. Let's look at the daily picture 1st, despite cable's aforesaid strg bounce fm 1.5943 to 1.6227, subsequent fall to 1.6009 signals correction is possibly over n a daily close below 1.6009 wud add credence to this view, then MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak wud pressure the pound twd 1.5820, this is 61.8% projection of abovementioned decline fm 1.7192-1.6052 measured fm 1.6525. Having said that, as the daily technical indicators wud display prominent 'bullish convergences' on such move, reckon 1.5718 (Aug 2013 high, now sup) wud contain weakness. On the upside, failure to penetrate 1.5943 low n subsequent rise abv 1.6227 wud confirm a temporary low has been made, then risk wud shift to the upsdie for stronger retracement to 1.642 ('minimum' 38.2% r of 1.7192-1.5943).
. Today, although Fri's rebound in NY afternoon signals decline fm 1.6227
has made a low at 1.6009, reckon 1.6136 wud cap upside n yield another decline.