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AceTraderFx May 9: Weekly Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD
WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ON EUR/USD
. EUR/USD - 1.3915 ... Despite euro's retreat after penetrating Jan's high at 1.3894 to 1.3967 on Mar, as long as 1.3477 sup holds, the 3-legged up move fm 1.2042 (Jul 2012) which is developing into a 3-legged a-b-c wave (see the details below) wud resume after consolidation, yield further gain to 1.4000 1st.
. Referring to the larger degree count below, the peak at 1.6040 (we called this Lehman top) marked the end of a 5-waver move fm 0.8228, the large 3-legged decline to 1.1876 is the A-B-C of the [A] wave, subsequent erratic rise to 2011 high at 1.4940 is also another 3-legged A-B-C of the wave, the sell off fm 1.4248 is therefore the [C] wave n has ended at 1.2042 in July. The rally fm there is labeled as wave a:1.2042-1.3711; b:1.2745 n wave c may extend to 1.4000 n then 1.4414 (equality proj. of the length of wave a measured fm wave b trough).
. On the downside, only below 1.3295 wud risk weakness to 1.3105 but break needed to signal the 3-legged up move is over n may yield weakness to 1.2745 1st.
------------------- *** LARGER DEGREE WAVE COUNT *** -------------------
17 Nov 2011.. The 'impulsive' rise fm euro-era low at 0.8228 (Oct 00') to 1.6040 (Jul 08') is a 5-waver with wave [1} at 0.9505, [2] at 0.8350, [3] at 1.3670, [4] at 1.1640 & wave [5] at 1.6040. The subsequent 'roller-coaster' move is turning into [A]--[C] waves with wave [A] at 1.1876, wave is currently unfolding into a 'complex' A-B-C with A-leg ended at 1.4940, now is B-wave of ...
AceTraderFx May 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY AUD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 May 2014 01:45GMT
USD/JPY - 101.67.. The greenback pares Thur's loss in quiet Asian trading as intra-day rebound in the Nikkei (currently up by 130 points at 14163) has prompted minor broad-based selling in the yen vs usd & eur.
Despite o/n cross-inspired decline to 101.47 in NY session, bids abv Wed's 3-week low contained dlr's weakness n traders cited minor short-covering in Australian morning, suggesting choppy sideways trading with mild upside bias is in store, however, offers reported at 101.90/00 are likely to check intra-day rebound, so whilst trading on both sides of the market for intra-day trade is okay, day traders shud sell the greenback on recovery.
09 May 2014 01:40GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9357.. The RBA just released its quarterly monetary statements Reuters reported:
RBA on Fri said record low interest rates are likely to be needed for some time yet as there should be spare capacity in the economy for the next couple of years.
In a 68-page report, RBA highlighted several key headwinds surrounding its outlook including a likely sharp decline in mining investment n a tightening in fiscal conditions. The net result was to give the impression that rates could stay low for a very long time to come.
"The Board's view is that the current accommodative monetary policy setting is likely to be appropriate for some time yet," the RBA said.
The RBA did note that the cash rate, at a record low 2.5%, was imparting a substantial degree of stimulus that should help support the economy.
The RBA played down a surprisingly mute first quarter inflation reading saying the data appeared to have "overstated any change in inflationary pressures." "It is likely that the past two quarters of inflation data have reflected an element of statistical noise," the RBA said. The central bank noted the path of the exchange rate was also a "significant source of uncertainty" for predicting growth and inflation, but suggested it should weaken over time.
AceTraderFx May 9: Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 09 May 2014 00:04GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
1.3872
55 HR EMA
1.3893
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
26
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.3952 - Tue's high
1.3905 - Y'day's Asian low (now res)
1.3890 - Mon's high (NZ)
Support
1.3812 - Last Fri's low
1.3771 - Last Wed's low
1.3736 - 50% r of 1.3477-1.3995
. EUR/USD - 1.3840.. Although euro briefly penetrated Mar's 1.3967 high to a fresh 2-year peak of 1.3995 (EBS) Thu after ECB kept rates unchanged, as usual , ECB President Draghi's comments that a rate cut is possible in Jun plus his concern on euro's strength at the press conference sent euro tanking to 1.3833.
. Looking at the daily picture, despite euro aforesaid rise to 1.3995, sub-
sequent near term reversal fm there confirms MT uptrend has indeed formed a temporary top there as this lvl was accompanied by prominent 'bearish divergences' on the hourly & daily oscillators. Current price action suggests euro is at least correcting the intermediate rise fm 1.3672 (Apr low) or the up move fm 1.3477 (Feb), a 'minimum' 38.2% r of the latter move wud pressure the single currency to 1.3797 n then 1.3736 (50% r) later next week. Therefore, selling euro on recovery in anticipation of such move is recommended n only abv a daily close abv 1.3952 wud dampen present bearish scenario on euro.
. Today, euro has remained under pressure at Asian open, however, as hourly indicators' readings are in o/sold territory, further steep fall is unlikely to be seen in Asia n reckon 1.6812 n bring recovery b4 another decline.
AceTraderFx May 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY AUD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 May 2014 01:47GMT
USD/JPY - 101.97
The greenback ratcheted higher to 102.05 against the Japanese yen in Asia today due to initial gain in Nikkei-225 index, following the rise in U.S. stock markets last Friday, however, investors may buy Japanese yen again due to an escalation in East-West tensions after pro-Moscow rebels declared victory in a referendum on self-rule in eastern Ukraine. Some offers are tipped at 102.20, 102.50 and 103.00 whilst some bids are located at 101.50 and 101.00.
Organisers of the weekend referendum said nearly 90 percent had voted in favour, possibly opening the way for the region to break away from Kiev in a conflict increasingly out of control.
12 May 2014 01:34GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9356
Australian April business confidence index rises to 6 versus 4 in March. The Australian dollar bounces briefly from 0.9349 after the data.
AceTraderFx May 12: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2497
12 May 2014 06:57GMT
Usd's rebound fm Thur's 1.2456 low signals choppy
trading abv Apr's 4-month 1.2451 wud continue n res
1.2510/11 needs to hold for resumtpion of decline.
Trade fm short side but 1.2406/10 shud hold. Abv
1.2510/11 wud risk stronger retrace. to 1.2530/40.
STRATEGY : Short at 1.2485
POSITION : Short at 1.2485
OBJECTIVE : 1.2435
STOP-LOSS : 1.2515
RES : 1.2510/1.2523/1.2569
SUP : 1.2451/1.2422/1.2406
AceTraderFx May 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
12 May 2014 09:54GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3767
ECB's Constancio adds 'inflation will likely stay below 1% for some time.'
ECB's Constancio says 'mid-term inflation projections are what really matter for next policy meeting; looking at wide range of possible measures won't speculate on June action; ECB can't ignore euro strength but exchange rate not policy target; ECB concerned that inflation going through period of very low values.'
ECB's Nowotny says 'energy, food prices create strg elements of uncertainty for inflation; need to avoid short-term pro-cyclical effects fm fiscal rules in Europe.'
Russia's Lavrov says 'no new international talks planned for now on Ukraine.'
AceTraderFx May 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 May 2014 04:47GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6878
Sterling traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of Wed's key event when BoE releases its Inflation Report. U.K. Telegraph reported BoE may need to raise interest rates b4 2015 May's general election, 6 months earlier than predicted, amid fears of a housing bubble (London house prices have risen 25% on their 2008 high, fueling speculation of a bubble).
According to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), this could force the BoE to raise interest rates in the first 3 months of next year, before the general election, as opposed to the third quarter previously forecast.
This has been echoed by economists, who claim that Bank governor Mark Carney will confirm interest rises on Wed, when the bank lifts its growth forecasts as part of its scheduled inflation report.
While the growth is encouraging, the CBI said that a housing bubble could still derail the recovery. "We have to remain alert to the risks posed by unsustainable house price inflation," said CBI director-general John Cridland. He added, "Housing has come back under the spotlight as annual house price inflation figures have reached double digit figures on some measures."
Buying cable looks a wee bit tricky as last week's sharp retreat fm a fresh near 5-year peak of 1.6996 to 1.6832 signals a temporary top is in place, however, buying sterling vs the euro looks like a good bet after eur/gbp touched a near 16-month trough of 0.8143 y'day.
AceTraderFx May 13: Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At13 May 2014 00:30GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
1.6872
55 HR EMA
1.6885
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
50
14 HR DMI
0
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.6975 - Last Thur's high
1.6938 - Last Fri's high
1.6916 - Last Fri's Asian low (now res)
Support
1.6832 - Last Fri's low
1.6821 - May 03 low
1.6792 - Apr 29 low
. GBP/USD - 1.6873.. Although cable found support at 1.6840 in NZ on Mon n then ratcheted higher to 1.6903 in European morning due partly to cross-buying in sterling. Renewed dlr's broad-based firmness checked intra-day gain n cable later retreated to 1.6863 in NY session.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, cable's rebound fm 1.6840 to 1.6903
y'day suggests choppy trading abv last Fri's low at 1.6832 wud be seen but as sell off fm last Tue's near 5-year peak at 1.6996 indicates MT uptrend fm 2013 trough (Jul) at 1.4814 has possibly made a temporary top there, 1.6916 (prev. sup, now res) shud hold n downside bias remains for re-test of said sup. Below 1.6821 (May 3 low) anytime wud add credence to this view n further decline to 1.6791/92, being the 'minimum' 38.2% r of intermediate rise of 1.6460-1.6996 n Apr 29 low respectively, wud follow but prominent 'bullish convergences' on the hourly oscillators on such a move shud keep price abv 1.6762 (Apr 23 low).
. In view of abv analysis, trading cable is cautiously favoured n only abv
1.6938 (last Fri's high) wud dampen present mildly bearish scenario on cable n risk stronger retracement to 1.6970/75 b4 prospect of retreat.
AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 14 May 2014 00:13GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.8893
55 HR EMA
0.8874
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
60
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 retreat
Resistance
0.8953 - Apr 04 high
0.8927 - Apr 03 high
0.8909 - Y'day's high
Support
0.8859 - Mon's low
0.8802 - Last Fri's European ow
0.8766 - Last Thur's Asian high (now sup)
. USD/CHF - 0.8899... Although the greenback traded sideways in Asia y'day n briefly edged lower to 0.8866 in early European morning, price rose to session high at 0.8907 on euro's weakness, dlr retreated to 0.8882 in NY morning after weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales b4 climbing to a 1-month high of 0.8909.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, dlr's rally fm last Thur's low at
0.8703 n y'day's breach of Mon's high at 0.8881 suggests further choppy trading abv Mar's 2-year low at 0.8698 wud continue with upside bias n gain twds res at 0.8927 wud be seen, however, 'bearish divergences' onthe hourly indicators shud prevent strg gain n reckon key res at 0.8953 (reaction high fm 0.8698) wud cap upside this week n bring another fall later. On the downside, only a daily close below 0.8802 (Fri's Asian low) wud defer bullishness n signal the corrective rise fm 0.8703 has formed a temporary top instead n risk subsequent weakness to 0.8766 (previous res, now sup).
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we're buying dlr on dips for one more
rise or sell if price climbs to 0.8920/30 1st for a long-overdue retracement to
0.8860 but sup 0.8802 shud remain intact n yield another upmove next week.
AceTraderFX May 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 May 2014 01:06GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3701
A piece of important w/end news worth noting. Reuters, together with our media reported ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet will recommend that the bank cut its main refinancing rate to a record low 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent at its policy meeting on Jun 5, according to the German magazine Der Spiegel.
Praet is also expected to recommend the introduction of a negative rate on bank deposits for the first time, Der Spiegel reported on Sun, without citing a source.
USD/JPY- 101.55
Japanese gov't. official says : machinery orders rise at fastest pace since comparable data available fm fiscal year 2005.
Japan's Mar monthly & year-on-year machinery order surged to 19.1% n 16.1% respectively, way abv market consensus of 6.0% & 4.2% respectively, however, dlr has shown muted reaction to the data.
The ECB declined to comment. Last week Reuters reported that the ECB was preparing a package of policy options for its June meeting, including cuts in all interest rates.
Five people familiar with the measures being prepared described plans involving a potential rate cut, including the ECB's deposit rate going negative for the first time, along with measures targeting small n mid-size companies.
Data to be released on Monday :
New Zealand PPI input, PPI output, U.K. Rightmove house prices, Japan machine tool orders,, euro zone construction output. Market in Canada will be closed due to Victoria/Patriots' Day.