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AceTraderFx Feb 26: Dollar trades mixed against other major currencies after comments
Market Review - 25/02/2014 21:32GMT
Dollar trades mixed against other major currencies after comments from Fed's top regulator
Although data showed that U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated in February on Tuesday, dollar rose from session lows versus other major currencies as comments from Fed's Daniel Tarullo prompted broad-based buying in greenback.
Fed's Board Governor Daniel Tarullo said on Tuesday that 'monetary policy a possible tool to deal with broad, sustained systemic risk; current financial risks do not warrant change to policy, cites high-yield corporate bonds, leveraged loans as risky areas; ad hoc supervisory actions have their limitations; supervisory tools, refinements to policy can reduce need to tighten in face of systemic risk; urges better framework to judge tradeoffs between financial stability, reduced economic activity; incorporating financial stability into monetary policy does not require new mandate; possible that interest rates will remain historically low for some time after Fed starts to raise them.'
During the day, the single currency moved narrowly above Asian low at 1.3729 in early trading on Tuesday and then rose to 1.3763 in European morning after data confirmed Germany's economy expanded in Q4. Later, euro edged marginally higher to 1.3767 in New York morning after European Commission revised up its growth forecast for the euro zone this year but lack of follow through buying prompted long liquidation and price retreated sharply to 1.3715 due to comments from the Federal Reserve's top regulator before stabilizing.
European Commission revised up its growth forecast for the euro zone to 1.2% this year, up from 1.1% in November, but cut its inflation forecast for 2014 to 1% from 1.5% in November and warned that debt levels in several countries will continue to climb.
Earlier, official data confirmed that Germany's economy grew 0.4% in the fourth quarter and expanded 1.3% on a year-over-year basis as strong overseas demand bolstered exports.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rose briefly to 102.63 shortly after Asian opening but cross-buying of yen on risk aversion due to a sharply decline in China's yuan pressured price lower to 102.22 in European morning. Later, price fell further to 102.01 in New York morning after release of weaker-than-expected U.S. February consumer confidence before recovering.
The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index declined to 78.1 in February, down from 79.4 in January, amid concerns over the short-term outlook for business conditions, jobs, and earnings.
Cable found support at 1.6646 in Asian morning and price later rose above Monday's high of 1.6679 to 1.6707 in European morning after reports showed stronger than forecast data on U.K. mortgage approvals and retail sales. Later, the British pound rose to 1.6724 in New York morning and then retreated sharply to 1.6642 on dollar's broad based rebound before rising to another session high of 1.6728.
The British Bankers Association on Tuesday showed that mortgage approvals rose 57% in January from a year earlier to 49,972, hitting a 76-month high. A separate report by the Confederation of British Industry said U.K. retail sales rose at the fastest rate since June 2013 in February. The CBI distributive trades survey rose to 37, up from 14 in January and well ahead of forecasts for an uptick to 15.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany Gfk consumer confidence, UK exports, imports, GDP, U.S. mortgage applications and new home sales.
AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 102.19
Update Time: 25 Feb 2014 23:27 GMT
Yesterday's weakness to 102.01 suggests erratic rise from Feb's 10-week trough at 100.76 has made a temp. top at 102.83 last Fri and as long as res area 102.63 /68 holds, downside bias remains for a stronger re- tracement to 101.67 but sup 101.38 would hold.
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Dollar rises broadly after the release of robust U.S. new home..
Market Review - 26/02/2014 20:32GMT
Dollar rises broadly after the release of robust U.S. new home sales data
The greenback rose against major currencies on Wednesday due to the upbeat U.S. new home sales data, shrugging off the Tuesday's poor consumer confidence data. Investors turned their attention to testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday.
Official data showed that U.S. new home sales rose unexpectedly in January, surged by 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted 468,000 units last month, highest since July 2008. New home sales in December were revised up to 427,000 units from a previously reported 414,000 units.
Although the single currency rose to a session high of 1.3757 in European morning after data showed that Germany's forward looking Gfk consumer sentiment index ticked up to a seven-year high of 8.5 for March from 8.3 in February, cross-selling in euro knocked price down ahead of New York open and price later tumbled to 1.3662 in New York morning before staging a recovery.
Dollar traded sideways against the Japanese yen after a brief rise to 102.41 in Asia but active cross-buying of yen versus other currencies capped intra-day gains there. The greenback dropped to 102.11 in New York morning and later rose to 102.61. Eur/jpy, aud/jpy and gbp/jpy crosses all fell sharply from 140.79 to 139.66, from 92.37 to 91.60 and from 170.95 to 169.97 respectively on Wednesday before stabilizing.
Although cable traded sideways in Asia and then staged a brief rebound from 1.6661 to 1.6702 in European morning after data confirmed that the rate of fourth quarter economic growth in the U.K. was unrevised at 0.7%, but the annual rate of growth was revised slightly lower.
Two members of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee reiterated that the bank is planning to keep rates on hold for some time limited intra-day upside potential there and the British pound later dropped in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength to 1.6622.
David Miles said recent falls in inflation meant there was less pressure to raise borrowing costs, while the bank’s chief economist Spenser Dale said it was not planning to raise rates any time soon. While Broadbent said 'BoE is not giving time specific guidance on when rates will rise; too much focus on specific date of when rates will rise first; timing of first interest rate rise has little bearing on average rate over next 5 years.'
In other news, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Boston Economic Club that 'the recent drop in the U.S. unemployment rate overstates the health of the labor market and should not trigger any speedy reduction in the Federal Reserve's super-easy monetary policy; the high number of part-time workers who would rather work full-time, the still-high unemployment rate, and very low inflation suggest significant "slack" in labor markets and "call for a very patient approach to removing monetary policy accommodation, particularly given the softness in recent economic data.'
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand trade balance, exports, imports, Swiss GDP, France consumer confidence, Germany unemployment, CPI, HICP, EU economic confidence, consumer confidence, Canada current account, U.S. durable goods and jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11650
27 Feb 2014 01:29GMT
Despite Tuesday's sell off to 11585, subsequent recovery
this suggests fall from 12275 has made a temp. low
there but above 11780 is needed to confirm, 11820.
On the downside, only below 11585 revives bearishness
for stronger retrace to 11550.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 11780/11820/11885
SUP : 11585/11550/11500
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/CHF
wrong thread, please go to my original thread.
Thank you.
AceTraderFx
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
27 Feb 2014 00:28GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8899
55 HR EMA
0.8889
Trend Hourly Chart
Nr term up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
63
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.8989 - Feb 11 top
0.8967 - Min. 38.2% r of 0.9156-0.9050
0.8930 - Y'day's low
Support
0.8892 - Tue's high (now sup)
0.8850 - Mon's low
0.8800 - Dec 2-year low (27th)
.USD/CHF - 0.8910... Although dlr traded sideways after finding sup at
0.8867 in Asia on Wed, price started to ratchet higher in Europe due to euro's
intra-day weakness. Later, dlr rallied to 0.8930 in NY morning as U.S. Jan new
home sales rose unexpectedly b4 retreating to 0.8904 near NY close.
. Looking at hourly n daily charts, y'day's breach of indicated res at
0.8910/15 (Mon's high n Feb's 20 high respectively) confirms decline fm Jan's
peak at 0.9156 has formed a temporary bottom at Mon's 8-week trough at 0.8850 n
as long as this sup holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain twd
0.8967, being 'minimum' 38.2% r of 0.9156-0.8850, however, as hourly oscillators
wud be in o/bot territory on such a move, measured res at 0.8993/03, 61.8% r of
intermediate fall fm 0.9082-0.8850 n also a 'natural' 50% r of aforesaid entire
decline respectively, shud hold n yield strg retreat later.
. In view of abv analysis, buying dlr on intra-day pullback is favoured but
one shud be prudent to take profit twd 0.8960/70. On the downside, only a break
below 0.8850 sup wud revive early bearishness instead for subsequent weakness
twd Dec's 2-year trough at 0.8800 tom or early next week.
AceTraderFx Feb 28: Dollar pares gains after mixed U.S. economic reports
Market Review - 27/02/2014 23:16GMT
Dollar pares gains after mixed U.S. economic reports
The greenback backed off from session highs against other euro and pound on Thursday as data showed the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week rose more than expected, while a separate report said U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods fell less than expected in January. Fed Chair Yellen's prepared testimony to senate panel on Thursday was identical to testimony delivered to house of representatives on Feb 11.
U.S. Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits rose by 14,000 to 348,000 from the previous week's total of 334,000. Market had expected a decrease of 1,000.
Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that durable goods orders declined by a seasonally adjusted 1% last month, compared to expectations for a 1.7% drop, while core durable goods orders, excluding volatile transportation items, rose 1.1% in January, the largest increase since May, confounding forecasts for a 0.3% decline.
During the day, although the single currency recovered to 1.3696 in Asia after Wednesday's sharp decline from 1.3757 to 1.3662, active cross-selling in euro on risk aversion due to rising geo-political tensions in Ukraine capped intra-day gain there and knocked price down to 1.3643 in European morning. Euro recovered to 1.3687 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based softness after release of mixed U.S. economic data before easing, the pair later rose to 1.3727 b4 easing.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar edged lower after meeting renewed selling at 102.44 in Asia and then tanked to 101.72 in European morning on active cross-buying in yen versus other major currencies. Later, investors bought back the greenback to 102.21 in New York morning on short-covering and then traded in a choppy fashion for rest of the session.
Cable traded in a mixed tone on Thursday. Despite early retreat from Asian high of 1.6683 to 1.6617 in European morning on risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, price staged a rebound to 1.6699 in New York morning on active cross-buying in sterling together with dollar's broad-based softness before moving sideways in thin New York afternoon.
In other news, Fed Chair Yellen said later in the day, 'since my appearance before last committee some data has been softer; hard to say how much due to weather; we will be attentive to signals on whether recovery is progressing in line with expectations.'
Data to be release on Friday:
Japan manufacturing PMI, jobless rate, National CPI, Toyko CPI, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, construction orders, UK Gfk consumer confidence, France PPI, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment rate, EU unemployment rate and CPI, Canada GDP, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, core PCE, pending home sales and U. of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Feb 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Feb 2014 02:32GMT
USD/JPY - 101.88... Although the greenback staged a rebound to 102.21 in NY after yesterday's sell off to 101.72 (Europe), renewed selling at 102.20 ahead of Asian open pressured the pair lower and price dropped to 101.82 in Tokyo morning, weighed down by the decline in Nikkei futures.
Traders showed no response to the release of better-than-expected Japan retail sales data (came in at 2.6% vs forecast of 1.0) and continued to sell the buck.
Offers are now seen at 102.00/05 and more above at 102.20/30 with stops building up above there. Market focus is now on the release of U.S. annualized GDP at 13:30GMT.
Street forecast is 2.5% vs previous reading of 3.2%.
AceTraderFx Feb 28 : Daily Technical Outlook on Major – GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 28 Feb 2014 01:21GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.6677
55 HR EMA
1.6671
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
63
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.6823 - Last Mon's 4-year high
1.6776 - Last Mon's NZ res
1.6728 - Tue's high
Support
1.6617 - Y'day's low
1.6583 - Mon's low
1.6537 - 50% r of 1.6252-1.6823
. GBP/USD - 1.6691 ... The British pound continued to fluctuate wildly on Thur. Although cable weakened fm Asian high at 1.6683 to 1.6617 in European morning, renewed buying interest there lifted price n sterling later rallied back to 1.6699 after dovish remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen b4 stabilising.
. Despite y'day's brief drop below Wed's low at 1.6622 to 1.6617, cable's
subsequent rebound after holding well abv Mon's low at 1.6583 suggests further 'choppy' sideways trading inside near term established broad range of 1.6583- 1.6728 wud continue with upside bias for gain to 1.6728 res (Tue's high), however, break is needed to signal the corrective fall fm last Mon's 4-year peak at 1.6823 has indeed ended at 1.6583 (Mon) n a daily close abv 1.6734/42, Feb 19 high n Feb 18 top respectively wud add credence to this view n yield possible resumption of MT uptrend for re-test of 1.6823 later next week.
. Today, we're holding a long position in anticipation of further gain. On
the downside, only below 1.6617 wud shift risk to the downside for a re-test of Mon's low at 1.6583, below wud bring stronger retracement of MT intermediate fm rise 1.6252 twd 1.6537 (being 50% r of 1.6252-1.6823) b4 prospect of recovery.
AceTraderFx Mar 3: Euro rallies on eurozone inflation & downward revised US GDP data
Market Review - 28/02/2014 21:26GMT
Euro rallies on eurozone inflation and downwardly revised U.S. GDP data
The single currency rallied from 1.3694 to as high as 1.3825 in New York after the release of eurozone inflation data and downwardly revised U.S. economic growth for the fourth quarter.
Eurozone CPI unexpectedly held steady this month as eurozone Feb inflation estimated came in at 0.8% y/y versus economists' forecast of 0.7%. Euro zone Feb CPI core was 1.0% y/y, higher than previous reading of 0.8%. Euro zone unemployment rate unchanged at 12.0% in January. The inflation cooled expectations the European Central Bank might ease monetary policy as early as next week. The single currency rallied from Asian low at 1.3694 to as high as 1.3825 before retreating briefly in late New York.
The greenback fluctuated wildly against the Japanese yen on Friday. Renewed selling interest at 102.20 ahead of Asian open pressured the pair lower n price dropped to as low as 101.55, weighed down by the decline in the Nikkei futures. However, active short-covering on the rebound in Asian stock markets lifted the pair. Dollar rose strongly to 102.30 in NY after the release of U.S. economic data. Chicago PMI came in at 59.8 in Feb versus 59.6 in Jan whilst U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final Feb was 81.6 versus prelim. reading of 81.2.
U.S. dollar nose-dived to 101.67 in late New York due to the brief but strong retreat in U.S. stock markets together with rising geopolitical tensions in Ukraine as Ukraine's acting president accused Russia of open aggression and said Moscow was following a similar scenario to the one before it went to war with Georgia in 2008.
The British pound also fluctuated wildly on Friday. Cable rose from 1.6677 to 1.6769 in tandem with euro after the release of eurozone inflation data, however, profit-taking knocked price lower to 1.6684 before rebounding to 1.6764 in New York.
In other news, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told an audience of economic heavyweights in New York that 'the Federal Reserve's best bet for returning the United States to full employment and 2-percent inflation is to clearly and repeatedly state those goals and even be willing to overshoot them to get there quickly; under Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Fed has used massive bond-buying programs and a promise to keep rates low as effective tools to provide monetary policy accommodation despite having already slashed the main policy rate to near zero.'
Data to be released next week:
Australia new home sales, China non-manufacturing PMI, HSBC manufacturing PMI, UK hometrack housing survey, house prices, manufacturing PMI, mortgage approvals, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing and construction spending on Monday.
Australia building approvals, RBA rate decision, EU PPI and U.S. ISM New York on Tuesday.
Australia GDP, China HSBC services PMI, UK shop price index, Italy services PMI, France services PMI, Germany services PMI, EU services PMI, GDP, U.S. ADP employment, ISM non-manufacturing and Canada BoC rate decision on Wednesday.
Australia trade balance, retail sales, Germany factory orders, UK BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, Canada building permits, U.S. labor cost, productivity, initial jobless claims and factory orders on Thursday.
Japan leading index, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, France trade balance, Italy PPI, Germany industrial production, Canada unemployment rate, labor productivity, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate and avg. hourly earnings on Friday.