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AceTraderFx Oct 9: Dollar ends mixed as U.S. political gridlock continues
Market Review - 08/10/2013 22:19GMT
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan Machine tools orders, UK Industrial production, Manufacturing production, trade balance, Germany Industrial production, U.S. Wholesale inventories, Wholesale sales, FOMC minutes.
Dollar ends mixed as U.S. political gridlock continues
The greenback fluctuated widely on Tuesday as hopes began to sprout that lawmakers will end a budget impasse that closed the government and threatened to derail efforts to lift the country's debt ceiling and avoid default.
The single currency initially retreated to 1.3558 in Asian trading before edging higher in European morning. The pair rose above Monday's high at 1.3591 to session high of 1.3607 in New York morning on greenback's broad-based weakness partly due to the comment from IMF’s chief economist Olivier Blanchard, however, euro later dropped back to 1.3571 as hopes began to build that parties from both sides may be willing to return to the negotiating table to find a way to fund the government as well as lift the debt ceiling and avoid default.
IMF's chief economist Blanchard says 'U.S. default could cause financial trauma, turn what is now a U.S. economic recovery into a recession.'
Versus the Japanese yen, despite initial selloff to 96.55 in Australian morning, the pair ratcheted higher in Asian trading, rose to 97.19 in Europe and then further to 97.25 in New York morning before retreating. Later, renewed cross-buying of yen pushed the pair lower and price retreated to 96.83 before stabilising.
Although the British pound edged lower from Asian high of 1.6099 and then tanked to 1.6019 in European morning, active cross-buying of sterling lifted price sharply higher and cable later penetrated Monday's high of 1.6101 to 1.6124 in New York morning before retreating on dollar's based rebound, dropped to 1.6070 in New York afternoon.
In other news, Fed's Plosser says 'the time has come for an expeditious phase-out of the purchase programme; disagreed with decision to delay tapering at September timing; delay in Tapering of asset purchases without clear justification undermines Fed credibility, efficacy of forward guidance; sees U.S. economy expanding 2.5% this year, 3% in 2014’ Fed's Pianalto says 'wanted to reduce asset purchases in September; very supportive monetary policy remains essential to support economy; it pays to be cautious with expanding QE3’ German government official says 'exiting expansive monetary policy will be a topic for central bank at G20/IMF meeting; exit from expansive monetary policy is necessary and should be communicated well.’
On the data front, German factory order in August came in at -0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, worse than the expectation of 1.0% and 4.0%, previous reading revised to -1.9% and 2.3%. China HSBC Markit Service PMI (Sep) came in at 52.4, versus previous month reading of 52.8. Canada housing starts in September came in at 193.6K, better than then expectation of 185.0K, previous reading revised to 184.0K.
AceTraderFx Oct 9 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2511
09 Oct 2013 05:41GMT
Present break of y'day's 1.2507 high due to usd's
broad-based strength suggests nr term fall fm 1.25
81 has ended at 1.2454 n gain to 1.2542 is seen.
Turn long on dips n exit on upmove as 1.2555/60
wud cap upside. Below 1.2473 aborts, risks 1.2454.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2490
OBJECTIVE : 1.2540
STOP-LOSS : 1.2465
RES : 1.2507/1.2541/1.2586
SUP : 1.2462/1.2454/1.2422
AceTraderFx Oct 10 : USD strengthens broadly on Yellen's nomination as next Fed chief
Market Review- 09/10/2013 22:26GMT
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand PMI, Australia Employment change, Unemployment rate, Japan Tertiary industry index, Machinery orders, Consumer confidence, UK BOE asset purchase target, rate decision, Germany Import price index, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy Industrial production, Canada New housing price index, jobless claims.
Dollar strengthens broadly on Yellen's nomination as next Fed chief
The greenback rose against other major currencies on Wednesday amid relief buying on news that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen will replace Ben Bernanke as the head of the U.S. central bank.
Although the single currency briefly climbed to 1.3605 in Australian morning, dollar's broad-based firmness after news of Yellen's nomination as next Fed chief pressured price from there and the pair ratcheted lower in Asian trading. Euro traded sideways ahead of European opening and then fell to 1.3516 in Europe before recovering to 1.3536 on better-than-expected German industrial production (1.4% m/m and 0.3% y/y, versus forecast of 1.0% and -1.4%). Later, the pair dropped again in New York trading and tumbled to session low of 1.3486 after the release of mildly hawkish Fed's minutes.
Minutes of Sept meeting stated 'U.S. Fed decision not to reduce bond buying 'a relative close call for several voting members; most participants judged it would likely be appropriate to stat to taper QE3 this year, end it in mid-2014; concerns raised about effectiveness of FOMC communication given market expectations for reduction of QE; all FOMC member but one wanted more evidence of sustainable economic progress before trimming QE; a numbers stressed contingent, data-dependent nature of QE; members worried tighter financial condition could slow economy, labour market; participants discussed difficulties of explaining cut to QE in coming absent clearly stronger economic data; a few participants preferred to cut only treasuries buys when time comes.'
The British pound initially bounced to 1.6122 against the dollar ahead of Asian opening on Wednesday and then retreated in Asia. The pair continued to move lower in Asia and then tumbled below 1.6000 level in Europe after release of weaker-than-expected U.K. industrial production and manufacturing production data. Later, cable dropped further in New York trading and fell to 1.5916 in New York afternoon before recovering.
U.K. industrial production in August came in at -1.1% m/m n -1.5% y/y, vs the forecast of -0.4% m/m n -0.6% y/y, previous reading revised to 0.1% m/m n -1.1% y/y. U.K. manufacturing production in August came in at -1.2% m/m n 0.2% y/y, versus the expectation of 0.4% m/m n 1.0% y/y, previous reading revised to -0.3% y/y.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback found support at 96.83 in Australia morning and then ratcheted higher in Asian session due to dollar's broad-based rebound. The pair climbed to 97.47 in European trading but renewed cross-buying of yen versus other currencies pressured price to 97.12 in New York morning. Later, dollar briefly rose to a session high at 97.65 in New York afternoon after relese of FOMC minutes before retreating near New York close.
In other news, ECB's Asmussen says 'don't have an exchange rate target, but look at its impact on economy; we still have room to move on interest rates; still have whole array of non-standard measures available.'
AceTraderFx Oct 10 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2529
10 Oct 2013 03:31GMT
Present rise abv y'day's high at 1.2526 suggests
early pullback fm 1.2586 has ended at 1.2454 n up-
side bias remains for a re-test of said res.
Buy at market with stop as indicated n only below
1.2499 aborts n risks weakness twds 1.2462.
STRATEGY : Buy at market
OBJECTIVE : 1.2580
STOP-LOSS : 1.2505
RES : 1.2541/1.2586/1.2600
SUP : 1.2499/1.2462/1.2454
AceTraderFx Oct 10: DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
10 Oct 2013 03:18GMT
Trend Daily Chart :Sideways
Daily Indicators : Turning down
21 HR EMA :1.5977
55 HR EMA:1.6023
Trend Hourly Chart :Down
Hourly Indicators : Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI :37
14 HR DMI :-ve
Daily Analysis :Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.6070 - Tue's NY low
1.6006 Last Fri's low
1.5968 - Y'day NY res
Support
1.5916 - Y'day's low
1.5886 - Sep 17 low
1.5844 - 50% r of 1.5427-1.6260
. GBP/USD - 1.5960..Cable's traded wildly initially y'day as news of nomin-
ation of Fed Vice Chair Yellen as next Fed Chief led to a bout of dlr-buying in
Aust., price bounced to 1.6122 but quickly fell in Asia. Intra-day fall accele-
rated after weaker-than-expected U.K. prod. data n cable tanked to 1.5916 in NY.
. Y'day's selloff to 1.5916 has justified our weekly bearish view that MT
rise fm Jul's 3-year low at 1.4814 has made a top last week at 1.6260 (Tue) n as
indicated in previous update, cable's aforesaid fall fm 1.6260 is at least cor-
recing MT intermediate rise fm 1.5427, since price has already reached the 'mini
mum' 38.2% r obj. at 1.5942, next downside target is pointing at the 'natural'
50% r obj. at 1.5844, a daily close below there wud turn outlook even more bear-
ish for further selloff to 1.5708 (38.2% r of 1.4814-1.6260).
. Today, the o/n rebound fm y'day's post-FOMC low at 1.5916 suggests the
pound wud gain some respite in Asia n range trading is in store, as price is tra
ding below the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, downside bias remains for decline fm 1.6260
to extend twd next chart obj. at 1.5886 but 1.5844 shud remain intact.
AceTraderFx Oct 11 : Yen weakens broadly on improved risk appetite
Market Review- 10/10/2013 22:24GMT
Yen weakens broadly on improved risk appetite
The Japanese yen weakened broadly on Thursday as risk appetite increased due to hope for a breakthrough on an agreement to end the U.S. government shutdown and the raising of the debt ceiling, ahead of a deadline to avoid a sovereign debt default, and comment from Bank of Japan's governor Haruhiko Kuroda.
White House official said 'willing to look at House Republican debt proposal, wants debt limit extended for as long as possible; Obama is willing to negotiate on broad budget issues, but only after Congress ends shutdown, debt ceiling.'
Bank of Japan's governor Haruhiko Kuroda said '"premature" to discuss additional BoJ measures; BoJ prepared to do anything necessary on deflation; no target for exchange rate, monetary policy aimed at domestic policy of raising inflation to sustainable 2% level.'
Dollar found support at 98.26 versus the yen in Australian morning Thursday and ratcheted higher to 97.89 European morning. Later, the pair briefly dropped to 97.62 due to weaker-than-expected jobless claim data (374K vs the forecast of 310K) before rising to a session high at 98.28 on the comment from Bank of Japan's governor Haruhiko Kuroda in New York morning.
The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.3528 in Australian morning and then dropped to 1.3588 in Asian trading. However, failure to penetrate Wednesday’s low at 1.3586 prompted short-covering and the pair rebounded to 1.3533 in European morning after European Central Bank (ECB) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) agreed to establish a bilateral currency swap arrangement. Euro later climbed to 1.3547 in New York morning in part due to cross-buying of euro (especially versus yen) and weak U.S. job data and then moved in a choppy fashion for rest of the session. Eur/jpy rallied from 131.52 to as high as 132.95 before easing.
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) have agreed to establish a bilateral currency swap arrangement to purchase and subsequently repurchase Chinese yuan and euro from each other. The swap agreement, which will be valid for three years, will have a maximum size of 350 billion Yuan when Yuan are provided to the ECB and of 45 billion when Euro are provided to the PBC.
Similarly, although British pound dropped below Wednesday’s low at 1.5916 to a 3-week low of 1.5914 in Asia, lack of follow-through selling prompted short-covering. Cable climbed higher in Europe after BOE kept its key rate at 0.5% and maintained asset purchase total at 375 billion sterling, price rose to 1.5973 after disappointing U.S. jobs data. Later, the pound briefly dropped to 1.5929 but only to ratchet higher to 1.5979 in New York afternoon.
In other news, ECB's president Mario Draghi says ' euro area outlook for nascent economy recovery; euro area pace of recovery subdued, uneven, fragile; euro area risks titled to downside; inflation expectation are firmly anchored; credit dynamic remains weak; it will be some time before credit creation spurred; monetary policy has to be supportive; ECB has adopted explicit communication on rates; ECB has committed to low rates for extended period; inflation will stay subdued in medium term; ECB counteracted and removed unwarranted breakup fears; forward guidance doesn't mean ECB is at lower bound; rate guidance focuses attention on mid-term inflation outlook; guidance helped anchor market expectations; rate expectation must not endanger economic recovery; path of policy rates conditional on inflation outlook; recovery remains in its infancy.’
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Domestic CGPI, Germany CPI, HICP, France current account, Italy CPI,
HICP, Canada Unemployment rate, U.S University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.
AceTraderFx Oct 11 : Daily Market Outlook on - USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1070.9
11 Oct 2013 05:48GMT
Despite y'day's rise to 1077.0, present retreat
suggests recovery fm Mon's 1068.5 low has ended
there n downisde bias remains to re-test said sup.
Stand aside n look to sell on pullback as only
abv 1077.8 aborts n risks retrace. to 1079.2.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1077.8/1079.2/1082.0
SUP : 1068.5/1066.0/1062.6
AceTraderFx Oct 15: Dollar weakens on concerns over U.S. default
Market Review - 14/10/2013 22:20GMT
Dollar weakens on concerns over U.S. default
Dollar weakened against other major currencies on Monday as potential of U.S. sovereign default after U.S. lawmakers and the White House over the weekend failed to agree on a spending package needed to reopen the government and lift the debt ceiling continued to weigh on demand for the greenback. Trading volume was thin in American session due to U.S.'s Columbus Day holiday.
Although euro opened higher to a session high at 1.3566 against the dollar in New Zealand morning then climbed marginally higher to 1.3569 in Asian session, cross-selling of euro versus sterling pressured price and the pair dropped to 1.3546 in European morning. Later, dollar's broad-based weakness on concerns over U.S. default lifted price in New York morning and euro surged to a high of 1.3598 before retreating to 1.3560 on hopes for reaching agreement on debt ceiling.
The British pound also opened higher at 1.5981 in New Zealand and then rose to 1.5989 in Asian trading but retreated in tandem with euro and fell to 1.5955 in European morning. However, renewed buying interest emerged there and cable later rose to 1.6015 and then further to 1.6018 in New York morning before retreating to 1.5979 in part due to the comments from Bank of England deputy governor Designate Cunliffe.
BoE's Deputy governor Designate Cunliffe said on Monday that 'forward guidance mitigates risk of premature expectations of tighter monetary policy; unusual amount of uncertainty about potential for firms to increase output without talking on additional employees; abrupt normalization of interest rates could threaten financial stability; U.K. property market will be a key area of financial policy committee's domestic focus; expects firms to use up existing capacity before starting to hire when demand recovers; assets; do not agree we entering into a housing bubble; house prices need to be watched very carefully, should be dealt with if threatens financial stability; BOE may need loan to value powers in future, but stiff test first to see if only way to deal with house prices; second stage to help buy scheme may possibly create risk housings borrowing too much; need to keep a very close eye on lending standards under help to buy.'
Versus Japanese yen, dollar opened lower at 98.09 in New Zealand before rising Nikkei 225 index lifted price in Asia. Dollar rebounded to 98.35 and then traded sideways in Europe but cross-buying of yen pressured price to 98.09 again in New York morning but only to rise to 98.48 at New York midday on speculation for reaching agreement on U.S. debt ceiling.
In the other news, ECB's Asmussen said 'rolling over Greek gov't bonds would infringe ban on monetary financing of governments.'
On the data front, EU industrial production (Aug) came in at 1.0% m/m and -2.1% y/y, better than the forecast of 0.8% m/m and -2.4% y/y, previous reading revised to -1.0% m/m and -1.9% y/y.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia RBA minutes, Japan industrial production, Capacity utilisation, France HICP, CPI, UK CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS house price, EU ZEW economic sentiment, Germany ZEW current condition, ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. Empire state manufacturing, Redbook retail sales, Canada existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Oct 15 : Daily Market ouotlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1068.9
15 Oct 2013 00:07GMT
Present re-test of last Mon's nr 9-month low at
1068.5 signals erratic fall fm 1163.5 has resumed n
further weakness to 1066.0 is seen b4 rebound.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated n only
abv 1074.7 wud abort, risk retrace. to 1077.0.
STRATEGY : Sell at 1071.5
OBJECTIVE: 1067.5
STOP-LOSS: 1073.5
RES : 1074.7/1077.0/1079.2
SUP : 1068.5/1066.0/1062.8
AceTraderFx Octr 15 : DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
15 Oct 2013 00:51GMT
Trend Daily Chart :Sideways
Daily Indicators:Turning down
21 HR EMA :1.5982
55 HR EMA :1.5980
Trend Hourly Chart:Sideways
Hourly Indicators :Neutral
13 HR RSI :41
14 HR DMI :-ve
Daily Analysis : Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.6070 - Last Tue's NY low
1.6046 - 38.2% r of 1.6260-1.5914
1.6018 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5914 - Last Thur's low
1.5886 - Sep 17 low
1.5844 - 50% r of 1.5427-1.6260
. GBP/USD - 1.5968... Trading cable proved to be tricky y'day as despite
initial weakness to 1.5955 in European morning, renewed buying lifted the pair n
to a session high at 1.6018 in NY morning. However, the British pound pared its
gains and dropped to 1.5979 in NY afternoon n then 1.5966 ahead of Asian open.
. Despite y'day's rebound to 1.6018, as mentioned in previous updates,
cable's early fall below 1.6006 sup (now res) to 1.5914 last Thur suggests MT
rise fm Jul's 3-year low at 1.4814 has made a top at 1.6260 n as long as 1.6046
(38.2% r of 1.6260-1.5914) holds, downside bias remains for said fall fm 1.6260
to at least correct the MT intermediate upmove fm 1.5427 n yield weakness to 50%
r target at 1.5844, a daily close below there wud retain bearish scenario for
further losses twd 1.5708 (38.2% r of 1.4814-1.6260). On the upside, abv 1.6046
res wud abort bearishness n risk stronger gain to 1.6076 (last Tue's NY low) but
res at 1.6122/24 shud remain intact.
. Today, in view of aforementioned bearish scenario, selling cable on intra-
day recovery for a re-test of sup 1.5914 is favoured.