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Piyush Ratnu is an independent forex market analyst & trader with core expertise in XAUUSD/Spot Gold.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
12.04.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Current status: FUNDAMENTALS:
Why Gold is rising?
Full markets returned on Tuesday, following the Easter long holiday. However, that failed to cheer the United States Dollar (USD) bulls, as the Greenback snapped the previous week’s recovery mode and turned south, tracking the pullback in the US Treasury bond yields. Investors resorting to position adjustment, gearing up for the high-impact economic events from the United States due midweek.
On Good Friday, the US Dollar rallied hard after a strong US labor market report boosted the odds of 25 basis points May rate hike by the Federal Reserve to 71%. With expectations of soft inflation data on Wednesday, markets are now pricing a 67% probability of a quarter percentage point rate increase next month. The revival of the dovish Federal Reserve interest rate bet weighs heavily on the US Dollar, boding well for the non-interest-bearing and the USD-denominated Gold price.
Economists are expected the United States Consumer Price Index to drop sharply to 5.2% YoY in March vs. 6.0% seen previously while the monthly headline figure is seen a tad lower at 0.3% in the reported month. Meanwhile, the annualized Core Consumer Price Index is likely to accelerate from 5.5% to 5.6% in March. The Core CPI MoM is foreseen at 0.4% in March as against a 0.5% growth booked in February.
Softer-than-expected headline numbers combined with a downside surprise in the annualized Core CPI clip could reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve pause as early as next month while bringing Fed rate cuts bets for this year back on the table.
The dovish Fed outlook could trigger a fresh downswing in the US Treasury bond yields across the curve, eventually smashing the US Dollar bulls across the board. As a result, Gold price could extend the renewed upside to test the $2045.
Reversal: XAUUSD can crash back to $1990/1966 zone.
Fears over a potential US recession could resurface on hot US inflation data, especially after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised the global real Gross Domestic Product growth for 2023 to 2.8% from 2.9% in January's report.
The Fed Minutes will be also closely scrutinized for the future rate path debated by the board members in the March policy meeting. Any surprise in the Minutes could also stir volatility around the Gold price.
Meanwhile, concerns about a recession keep growing. Sluggish macroeconomic data and the unexpected OPEC+ decision to cut oil output fueled a dismal market mood, which seems to be temporarily on pause. Still, risk-averse environments hardly benefit the Greenback these days, with Gold making the most of it.
Why Gold is rising?
Full markets returned on Tuesday, following the Easter long holiday. However, that failed to cheer the United States Dollar (USD) bulls, as the Greenback snapped the previous week’s recovery mode and turned south, tracking the pullback in the US Treasury bond yields. Investors resorting to position adjustment, gearing up for the high-impact economic events from the United States due midweek.
On Good Friday, the US Dollar rallied hard after a strong US labor market report boosted the odds of 25 basis points May rate hike by the Federal Reserve to 71%. With expectations of soft inflation data on Wednesday, markets are now pricing a 67% probability of a quarter percentage point rate increase next month. The revival of the dovish Federal Reserve interest rate bet weighs heavily on the US Dollar, boding well for the non-interest-bearing and the USD-denominated Gold price.
Economists are expected the United States Consumer Price Index to drop sharply to 5.2% YoY in March vs. 6.0% seen previously while the monthly headline figure is seen a tad lower at 0.3% in the reported month. Meanwhile, the annualized Core Consumer Price Index is likely to accelerate from 5.5% to 5.6% in March. The Core CPI MoM is foreseen at 0.4% in March as against a 0.5% growth booked in February.
Softer-than-expected headline numbers combined with a downside surprise in the annualized Core CPI clip could reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve pause as early as next month while bringing Fed rate cuts bets for this year back on the table.
The dovish Fed outlook could trigger a fresh downswing in the US Treasury bond yields across the curve, eventually smashing the US Dollar bulls across the board. As a result, Gold price could extend the renewed upside to test the $2045.
Reversal: XAUUSD can crash back to $1990/1966 zone.
Fears over a potential US recession could resurface on hot US inflation data, especially after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised the global real Gross Domestic Product growth for 2023 to 2.8% from 2.9% in January's report.
The Fed Minutes will be also closely scrutinized for the future rate path debated by the board members in the March policy meeting. Any surprise in the Minutes could also stir volatility around the Gold price.
Meanwhile, concerns about a recession keep growing. Sluggish macroeconomic data and the unexpected OPEC+ decision to cut oil output fueled a dismal market mood, which seems to be temporarily on pause. Still, risk-averse environments hardly benefit the Greenback these days, with Gold making the most of it.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
11.04.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
04.04.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
The US Dollar falls alongside Wall Street, with the three major indexes trading deep in the red, while US government bond yields are also down amid signs of a slowing labor market. The 10-year Treasury note yields 3.34%, down 9 basis points, while the 2-year note offers 3.84%, down 13 bps for the day.
Yesterday, The US published the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed that the number of available positions in the month totalled 9.93 million, below 10 million for the first time in nearly two years. At the same time, the January figure was downwardly revised to 10.56 million. The poor figures suggest that the Federal Reserve (Fed) measures are actually cooling the labor market. Meanwhile, Factory Orders in the same month declined by 0.7%, worse than the 0.5% fall anticipated.
With the United States economic data emerging back as the market movers, Gold traders eagerly await the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data for fresh hints on the next Federal Reserve interest rate move.
Disappointing US economic data will exacerbate the pain in the US Dollar, triggering a renewed upswing in the USD-denominated Gold price. Markets will resort to repricing the Fed rate hike expectations on the data releases, eventually impacting the US Treasury bond yields, US Dollar and the non-yielding Gold price.
Yesterday, The US published the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed that the number of available positions in the month totalled 9.93 million, below 10 million for the first time in nearly two years. At the same time, the January figure was downwardly revised to 10.56 million. The poor figures suggest that the Federal Reserve (Fed) measures are actually cooling the labor market. Meanwhile, Factory Orders in the same month declined by 0.7%, worse than the 0.5% fall anticipated.
With the United States economic data emerging back as the market movers, Gold traders eagerly await the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data for fresh hints on the next Federal Reserve interest rate move.
Disappointing US economic data will exacerbate the pain in the US Dollar, triggering a renewed upswing in the USD-denominated Gold price. Markets will resort to repricing the Fed rate hike expectations on the data releases, eventually impacting the US Treasury bond yields, US Dollar and the non-yielding Gold price.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
04.04.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
WHY YEN is rising?
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) purchased a record $1 trillion of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) last fiscal year, as it tried to fend off investors' attack on its ultra-low rate policy.
The central bank's outright purchases of JGBs rose to an all-time high of 135.989 trillion yen ($1.02 trillion) in the year through March, almost double the amount a year earlier, a BOJ filing showed on Monday.
In a sign that the BOJ may continue aggressive bond buying, the central bank on Friday raised the maximum size of its planned Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases for all maturities over the next three months.
In the previous fiscal year, the central bank made purchases of 72.87 trillion yen in JGBs.
IMPACT: USDJPY crashed from 133.600 second time till 132.000 zone. 🆘
Impact of OIL:
Oil prices jumped around 6% on the move by the group known as OPEC+. Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate, who as of Friday viewed any further rate increase as a toss-up, on Monday put a nearly 60% probability of a hike at the central bank's May 2-3 policy meeting.
A surprise announcement on Sunday by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies that they would cut production by about 1.1 million barrels per day put the Fed's dilemma back on display, offering the sort of shock that could keep inflation stickier than otherwise.
USD under pressure. US F all set to crash
A Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS) Inc-led group of banks will hold an investor call on Monday to sell $3.8 billion in Citrix Systems (NASDAQ:CTXS) bonds, according to two sources familiar with the matter, in a sign that the market for junk debt that was roiled by last month's banking crisis is starting to thaw.
It is by far the biggest junk debt sale since the failures last month of U.S. regional banks Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank (OTC:SBNY) and the forced sale of Credit Suisse Group AG to Swiss peer UBS Group AG (SIX:UBSG).
Issuance of junk bonds in the U.S. dropped from $13.9 billion in February to $4.45 billion in March, according to Informa, as the market turmoil soured risk appetite.
In addition to Citrix, banks are expected to market to investors a portion of the $5.4 billion in debt which last year financed auto parts supplier Tenneco's buyout by Apollo Global Management
USDJPY: current status:
The USDJPY experienced fluctuations in today's trading session as market participants reacted to the weekend's oil production cut news. Initially, the JPY was sold, causing the USDJPY to rise.
The pair approached the 50% retracement level from the March high to the March low at 133.769, coming within 11 pips of the declining 100-day moving average at 133.900.
This level has not been breached since March 10. At this point, buyers turned into sellers (as per volume and momentum based observations), and the price fell back towards the session lows near 132.813.
Yesterday, during US session low reached 132.300, with the current trading price at 132.700.
US10YT 3.423
USDJPY 132.75
USDCNY 6.8833
XAUXAG 82.93
DXY 101.825
US F + (stable)
XAUUSD CMP 1978.50
I had projected selling at $1990 yesterday.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) purchased a record $1 trillion of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) last fiscal year, as it tried to fend off investors' attack on its ultra-low rate policy.
The central bank's outright purchases of JGBs rose to an all-time high of 135.989 trillion yen ($1.02 trillion) in the year through March, almost double the amount a year earlier, a BOJ filing showed on Monday.
In a sign that the BOJ may continue aggressive bond buying, the central bank on Friday raised the maximum size of its planned Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases for all maturities over the next three months.
In the previous fiscal year, the central bank made purchases of 72.87 trillion yen in JGBs.
IMPACT: USDJPY crashed from 133.600 second time till 132.000 zone. 🆘
Impact of OIL:
Oil prices jumped around 6% on the move by the group known as OPEC+. Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate, who as of Friday viewed any further rate increase as a toss-up, on Monday put a nearly 60% probability of a hike at the central bank's May 2-3 policy meeting.
A surprise announcement on Sunday by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies that they would cut production by about 1.1 million barrels per day put the Fed's dilemma back on display, offering the sort of shock that could keep inflation stickier than otherwise.
USD under pressure. US F all set to crash
A Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS) Inc-led group of banks will hold an investor call on Monday to sell $3.8 billion in Citrix Systems (NASDAQ:CTXS) bonds, according to two sources familiar with the matter, in a sign that the market for junk debt that was roiled by last month's banking crisis is starting to thaw.
It is by far the biggest junk debt sale since the failures last month of U.S. regional banks Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank (OTC:SBNY) and the forced sale of Credit Suisse Group AG to Swiss peer UBS Group AG (SIX:UBSG).
Issuance of junk bonds in the U.S. dropped from $13.9 billion in February to $4.45 billion in March, according to Informa, as the market turmoil soured risk appetite.
In addition to Citrix, banks are expected to market to investors a portion of the $5.4 billion in debt which last year financed auto parts supplier Tenneco's buyout by Apollo Global Management
USDJPY: current status:
The USDJPY experienced fluctuations in today's trading session as market participants reacted to the weekend's oil production cut news. Initially, the JPY was sold, causing the USDJPY to rise.
The pair approached the 50% retracement level from the March high to the March low at 133.769, coming within 11 pips of the declining 100-day moving average at 133.900.
This level has not been breached since March 10. At this point, buyers turned into sellers (as per volume and momentum based observations), and the price fell back towards the session lows near 132.813.
Yesterday, during US session low reached 132.300, with the current trading price at 132.700.
US10YT 3.423
USDJPY 132.75
USDCNY 6.8833
XAUXAG 82.93
DXY 101.825
US F + (stable)
XAUUSD CMP 1978.50
I had projected selling at $1990 yesterday.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
31.03.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
UPDATE: U.S. money market funds 🆘
Money continued to flow into safer U.S. money market funds for a third consecutive week as investors remained unsettled about the banking sector crisis, with slowdown worries also affecting the sentiment.
According to Refinitiv Lipper data, U.S. money market funds received a net $59.31 billion worth of inflows in the week to March 29. They have received about $273.3 billion worth of inflows so far this month.
Meanwhile, investors turned net sellers of $20.68 billion worth of U.S. equity funds after $10.17 billion worth of net purchases in the previous week.
They exited large, small and mid-cap equity funds of $8.25 billion, $2.43 billion and $1 billion, respectively.
They sold high yield and short/intermediate investment-grade funds of $2.28 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, but government funds drew a net $4.08 billion, marking a seventh weekly inflow in a row.
Among sector funds, financials, industrials and consumer staples saw withdrawals of $931 million, $617 million and $499 million, respectively, although tech received $926 million worth of inflows after witnessing outflows for six weeks in a row.
IMPACT: US F, XAUUSD, DXY, USD Pairs, Bonds
Money continued to flow into safer U.S. money market funds for a third consecutive week as investors remained unsettled about the banking sector crisis, with slowdown worries also affecting the sentiment.
According to Refinitiv Lipper data, U.S. money market funds received a net $59.31 billion worth of inflows in the week to March 29. They have received about $273.3 billion worth of inflows so far this month.
Meanwhile, investors turned net sellers of $20.68 billion worth of U.S. equity funds after $10.17 billion worth of net purchases in the previous week.
They exited large, small and mid-cap equity funds of $8.25 billion, $2.43 billion and $1 billion, respectively.
They sold high yield and short/intermediate investment-grade funds of $2.28 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, but government funds drew a net $4.08 billion, marking a seventh weekly inflow in a row.
Among sector funds, financials, industrials and consumer staples saw withdrawals of $931 million, $617 million and $499 million, respectively, although tech received $926 million worth of inflows after witnessing outflows for six weeks in a row.
IMPACT: US F, XAUUSD, DXY, USD Pairs, Bonds
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
*Gold price uptrend continues despite shrinking volatility.
*US PCE inflation data on Friday has huge market implications.
*Federal Reserve future rate hike bets are shaping precious metal markets.
*Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to trade within a solid uptrend, even in a calmer week in the financial markets.
Things could get lively again on Friday as the market gets ready for the biggest data release of the week, the United States Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers, scheduled to be released at 16.30 hours DXB
On the contrary, if the Core PCE eases, it would be great news for the Fed, but not for the Dollar. Signs that inflation continued to slowdown would alleviate the pressure for the Fed to do more. US bond yields could resume the slide and the US Dollar print fresh monthly lows.
Gold price uptrend has slowed down in the past days, but bulls still keep the edge, with the bright metal comfortably trading above $1,980 currently.
“Gold is well supported by US recession fears, easing inflationary pressure and more dovish monetary policy. Nevertheless, the upside looks limited in the near term amid easing banking risks and further Fed rate hikes.” - ANZ Bank
Gold price can target $2,000 on lower-than-expected PCE inflation
Gold is trading within a solid uptrend, making relative highs and lows in several timeframes. Despite the XAU/USD price action having calmed down this week on easing bank fears and a light economic calendar, it found solid support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 8-17 rally early in the week. Since then, Gold bulls have slowly resumed the uptrend ahead of crucial US PCE inflation data.
Immediate resistance target for Gold bulls is located at the $2,000 round and psychological level, which has acted as a difficult level to break already three times in the last 10 days. That could be reached on a lower-than-expected US PCE release. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still short of overbought territory, it adds credence to such a potential rally (always data dependant, of course.)
On the other hand, a higher-than-expected Fed preferred inflation measure could trigger a correction on the bright metal, and immediate support would be right back at the aforementioned 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, located at $1,951.
*US PCE inflation data on Friday has huge market implications.
*Federal Reserve future rate hike bets are shaping precious metal markets.
*Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to trade within a solid uptrend, even in a calmer week in the financial markets.
Things could get lively again on Friday as the market gets ready for the biggest data release of the week, the United States Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers, scheduled to be released at 16.30 hours DXB
On the contrary, if the Core PCE eases, it would be great news for the Fed, but not for the Dollar. Signs that inflation continued to slowdown would alleviate the pressure for the Fed to do more. US bond yields could resume the slide and the US Dollar print fresh monthly lows.
Gold price uptrend has slowed down in the past days, but bulls still keep the edge, with the bright metal comfortably trading above $1,980 currently.
“Gold is well supported by US recession fears, easing inflationary pressure and more dovish monetary policy. Nevertheless, the upside looks limited in the near term amid easing banking risks and further Fed rate hikes.” - ANZ Bank
Gold price can target $2,000 on lower-than-expected PCE inflation
Gold is trading within a solid uptrend, making relative highs and lows in several timeframes. Despite the XAU/USD price action having calmed down this week on easing bank fears and a light economic calendar, it found solid support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 8-17 rally early in the week. Since then, Gold bulls have slowly resumed the uptrend ahead of crucial US PCE inflation data.
Immediate resistance target for Gold bulls is located at the $2,000 round and psychological level, which has acted as a difficult level to break already three times in the last 10 days. That could be reached on a lower-than-expected US PCE release. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still short of overbought territory, it adds credence to such a potential rally (always data dependant, of course.)
On the other hand, a higher-than-expected Fed preferred inflation measure could trigger a correction on the bright metal, and immediate support would be right back at the aforementioned 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, located at $1,951.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
30.03.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
Business Queries:
WhatsApp: https://wa.me/971507196693
Telegram: https://t.me/PRGoldSupport
Email: info@piyushratnu.com
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/
#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai #Forex #SpotGold #XAUUSD #forexeducation
Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months
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Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Alert: BOJ is Buying Bonds! BOJ Bought $3.4 T in Govt. Bonds.🆘
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda changed the course of global markets when he unleashed a $3.4 trillion firehose of Japanese cash on the investment world. Now Kazuo Ueda is likely to dismantle his legacy, setting the stage for a flow reversal that risks sending shockwaves through the global economy.
Just over a week before a momentous leadership change at the BOJ, investors are gearing up for the seemingly inevitable end to a decade of ultra-low interest rates that punished domestic savers and sent a wall of money overseas. The exodus accelerated after Kuroda moved to suppress bond yields in 2016, culminating in a mountain of offshore investments worth more than two-thirds Japan’s economy.
All this risks unraveling under the new governor Ueda, who may have little choice but to end the world’s boldest easy-money experiment just as rising interest rates elsewhere are already jolting the international banking sector and threatening financial stability. The stakes are enormous: Japanese investors are the biggest foreign holders of US government bonds and own everything from Brazilian debt to European power stations to bundles of risky loans stateside.
An increase in Japan’s borrowing costs threatens to amplify the swings in global bond markets, which are being rocked by the Federal Reserve’s year-long campaign to combat inflation and the new danger of a credit crunch. Against this backdrop, tighter monetary policy by the BOJ is likely to intensify scrutiny of its country’s lenders in the wake of recent bank turmoil in the US and Europe.
Ueda, the first ever academic to captain the BOJ, is largely expected to speed up the pace of policy tightening sometime later this year. Part of that may include further loosening the central bank’s control on yields and unwinding a titanic bond-buying program designed to suppress borrowing costs and boost Japan’s moribund economy.
The BOJ has bought 465 trillion yen ($3.55 trillion) of Japanese government bonds since Kuroda implemented quantitative easing a decade ago, according to central bank data, depressing yields and fueling unprecedented distortions in the sovereign debt market. As a result, local funds sold 206 trillion yen of the securities during the period to seek better returns elsewhere.
Impact might be seen on:
USDJPY NZDUSD NZDJPY EURJPY AUDJPY AUDUSD XAUUSD
Algorithm Setting: PR S W1 🆘
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda changed the course of global markets when he unleashed a $3.4 trillion firehose of Japanese cash on the investment world. Now Kazuo Ueda is likely to dismantle his legacy, setting the stage for a flow reversal that risks sending shockwaves through the global economy.
Just over a week before a momentous leadership change at the BOJ, investors are gearing up for the seemingly inevitable end to a decade of ultra-low interest rates that punished domestic savers and sent a wall of money overseas. The exodus accelerated after Kuroda moved to suppress bond yields in 2016, culminating in a mountain of offshore investments worth more than two-thirds Japan’s economy.
All this risks unraveling under the new governor Ueda, who may have little choice but to end the world’s boldest easy-money experiment just as rising interest rates elsewhere are already jolting the international banking sector and threatening financial stability. The stakes are enormous: Japanese investors are the biggest foreign holders of US government bonds and own everything from Brazilian debt to European power stations to bundles of risky loans stateside.
An increase in Japan’s borrowing costs threatens to amplify the swings in global bond markets, which are being rocked by the Federal Reserve’s year-long campaign to combat inflation and the new danger of a credit crunch. Against this backdrop, tighter monetary policy by the BOJ is likely to intensify scrutiny of its country’s lenders in the wake of recent bank turmoil in the US and Europe.
Ueda, the first ever academic to captain the BOJ, is largely expected to speed up the pace of policy tightening sometime later this year. Part of that may include further loosening the central bank’s control on yields and unwinding a titanic bond-buying program designed to suppress borrowing costs and boost Japan’s moribund economy.
The BOJ has bought 465 trillion yen ($3.55 trillion) of Japanese government bonds since Kuroda implemented quantitative easing a decade ago, according to central bank data, depressing yields and fueling unprecedented distortions in the sovereign debt market. As a result, local funds sold 206 trillion yen of the securities during the period to seek better returns elsewhere.
Impact might be seen on:
USDJPY NZDUSD NZDJPY EURJPY AUDJPY AUDUSD XAUUSD
Algorithm Setting: PR S W1 🆘
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Surprises Ahead! Geo-political Drama awaits HVPR!🆘
Russia will no longer give the U.S. advance notice about its missile tests, a senior Moscow diplomat said Wednesday, as its military deployed mobile launchers in Siberia in a show of the country’s massive nuclear capability amid fighting in Ukraine.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies that Moscow has halted all information exchanges with Washington after previously suspending its participation in the last remaining nuclear arms pact with the U.S.
long with the data about the current state of the countries’ nuclear forces routinely released every six months in compliance with the treaty, the parties also have exchanged advance warnings about test launches. Such notices have been an essential element of strategic stability for decades, allowing Russia and the United States to correctly interpret each other’s moves and make sure that neither country mistakes a test launch for a missile attack.
The termination of missile test warnings marks yet another attempt by Moscow to discourage the West from ramping up its support for Ukraine by pointing to Russia’s massive nuclear arsenal. In recent days, President Vladimir Putin announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the territory of Moscow’s ally Belarus.
Patrushev alleged that some American politicians believe the U.S. could launch a preventative missile strike on Russia to which Moscow would be unable to respond, a purported belief that he described as “short-sighted stupidity, which is very dangerous.”🆘
Russia will no longer give the U.S. advance notice about its missile tests, a senior Moscow diplomat said Wednesday, as its military deployed mobile launchers in Siberia in a show of the country’s massive nuclear capability amid fighting in Ukraine.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies that Moscow has halted all information exchanges with Washington after previously suspending its participation in the last remaining nuclear arms pact with the U.S.
long with the data about the current state of the countries’ nuclear forces routinely released every six months in compliance with the treaty, the parties also have exchanged advance warnings about test launches. Such notices have been an essential element of strategic stability for decades, allowing Russia and the United States to correctly interpret each other’s moves and make sure that neither country mistakes a test launch for a missile attack.
The termination of missile test warnings marks yet another attempt by Moscow to discourage the West from ramping up its support for Ukraine by pointing to Russia’s massive nuclear arsenal. In recent days, President Vladimir Putin announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the territory of Moscow’s ally Belarus.
Patrushev alleged that some American politicians believe the U.S. could launch a preventative missile strike on Russia to which Moscow would be unable to respond, a purported belief that he described as “short-sighted stupidity, which is very dangerous.”🆘
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD is currently under the price trap of $1966
Breach of $1966 zone will result in $1985-2020-2060
Reversal from $1966 will result in 1947-1926-1907
USD Fundamentals, Geo-political tensions and JPY policy, BOJ's Bond scheme (1182B - P), Inflow in JPY Bonds: these factors are playing a major role in holding GOLD prices above 1950 psychological level.
US F +
USDJPY 132.540 (+)
NK25 (-) GAP observed retracement expected
DXY 102.345 (stable)
USD S 38 (weak)
JPY (60) strong
AUD 85 (supports XAUUSD)
M30A100 achieved
H1A236 achieved
H4236 achieved
D1236 achieved
1947/1926 - 1985/2020 on radar. 🆘
Breach of $1966 zone will result in $1985-2020-2060
Reversal from $1966 will result in 1947-1926-1907
USD Fundamentals, Geo-political tensions and JPY policy, BOJ's Bond scheme (1182B - P), Inflow in JPY Bonds: these factors are playing a major role in holding GOLD prices above 1950 psychological level.
US F +
USDJPY 132.540 (+)
NK25 (-) GAP observed retracement expected
DXY 102.345 (stable)
USD S 38 (weak)
JPY (60) strong
AUD 85 (supports XAUUSD)
M30A100 achieved
H1A236 achieved
H4236 achieved
D1236 achieved
1947/1926 - 1985/2020 on radar. 🆘
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
29.03.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
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Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
28.03.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
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27.03.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
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Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
DID Hedge funds made a dramatic mistake in early spring? Speculators bet on the continuation of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle and on the unwillingness of the new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, to change something and extended the yen net shorts to a maximum since June. However, the banking crisis sent the USDJPY down 4%, driving hedge funds, which entered longs, into massive losses. The exiting of their positions allowed the pair to reach the targets on the previously entered shorts at 132 and 130. Anyone could be wrong. The speculators were not totally wrong. The bankruptcy of three US banks and the takeover of Credit Suisse have increased the risks of the completion of monetary restriction cycles by the Fed and other world’s leading central banks. According to SMBC Nikko Securities, the BoJ has little chance of making adjustments to its yield curve control policy in April due to the uncertainty the Fed is facing. Furthermore, consumer prices in Japan fell by more than 1% in February to 3.1% due to a decline in energy costs. The main argument in favour of the yen rising versus the US dollar is the expectations of a recession in the US economy, which increases the demand for safe-haven assets and presses down Treasury yields. The US-Japan yield spread is narrowing, leading to capital repatriation by Japanese investors and strengthening the yen. Hopes for a dovish shift lead Morgan Stanley to talk about the fall of the US dollar to ¥120 by the end of December. MUFG also sees the greenback as vulnerable and recommends selling USDJPY towards 127-128. Credit Agricole, on the other hand, advises caution. Its historical analysis shows that selling US currency before the Fed stops raising borrowing costs is dangerous. Will the dollar strengthen again? 🆘 USDJPY CMP 131.700
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
24.03.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
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Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
23.03.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis
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